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June 19, 2009


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I read your post but has nothing of substantial value. Just a propaganda machine. I have a lot of reservations about your intentions ...

It's about time to investigate a thing or two about you. Stay tuned ...

Statistics proves MASSIVE election fraud:

I suggest you change your name from Cyrus to Cyrus baseeji! You are now officially an stooge of Seyd Ali Khameni in NYC. I agree with the above poster that called you a useful idiot for the fascist Islamic Repugnant of Iran!

[Cyrus Responds: had you read my post you'd see that "statistics" prove no such thing, and that the statistical study you cite is faulty. Have a nice day.]

"The day will come 'Cyrus' when Islamics like you will hang from the trees by your turbans as the revolution of the People of Iran against Arab-lovers like you will overtake your pathetic tyrannical government. Mozdoor Kaseef! We know how to deal with the likes of you. Until then you better watch out because we know who you are and where you live."

This post by a Mousavi supporter pretty much sums up their position. Unfortunately for them, they don't have the numbers (no matter how hard they try to contrive stories).

[Cyrus Replies: I don't think this guy is a Mousavi supporter. At best, these people see Mousavi as a foil and a "useful idiot." They'll ride his back for as long as they can, since they lack legitimacy of their own.]

jim please do no try to reason the action of the islamic republic thugs by making a comparison. it doesn't matter what usa does if people riot about obama. killing people who simply voice their opposition in a peaceful manner in an inhuman savage way, in any circumstances, should be condemned by anyone. arresting people and charging them for illegal demonstration is different but slaughtering them with knives, chains, guns, metal pipes daggers and axes is a crime for any reason.

this behaviors are not surprising by islam the history of islam is violent starting from the fucking "prophet" mohammad who was a pervert who married a 7 years old girl.

To Jim: I appreciate that you (and so many others) do care! As for your comment:

1. If you think the protesters protested to garner world-wide support, you are wrong. They protested to get their votes back. Only some (and not all) protesters used western media to publicize their demands (again, not to garner support). BTW, what type of support could they possibly ask for? Western interference is not even on the wish-list (and Obama has been wise enough to read Iranians' stitched lips on this issue).

2. On the same line, Mousavi and his team never directed their concerns to western media and politicians. This was a smart move, because they could have easily been accused of espionage (and capital punishment by Iranian law). (Some of my friends wanted to translate the documents, but I am not sure if it went anywhere.)

3. On the election day, one of the major command centers and also the central headquarters of Mousavi team were raided and documents/computers were confiscated "to prevent collection and reporting of the evidences of fraud". [page 14 of the 27-page report by Mousavi]. Also, some of the high-ranking Mousavi supporters were arrested (I am not sure if this was during or after the raid).

The SMS service (text messaging) and telephone were the only lines of communication for Mousavi's team. Despite the fact that the head of election committee (of interior ministry) rejected any possibility of SMS blockage on the election day, the SMS service was blocked on the day of the election (and continued for two weeks). Also, telephone lines of the "committee for protection of people's vote" (Komiteye Sianat az Ara) were deactivated during the final hours of election and during vote-counting.

Therefore, it was practically impossible to document any infractions and come up with numbers of violations. Yes, somebody could have put together a list of violations, or contact the inspectors directly. But guess what?! People with direct contact to Mousavi are arrested. ("two layers of Mousavi's network, as his wife claims).

Since the election, some people have anonymously spoken about the violations on the election day. (e.g. this link is an unofficial interview with a computer operator. He claims to be Rezaei supporter).

4. About videos/pictures of violations: I have seen a couple of videos showing people behind closed doors, complaining that they were not allowed to vote because of senseless alibies. I have also seen two videos showing some basiji-looking guys writing on the ballots. What else could be filmed? (that the inspectors are out of the counting room?! (well they are out of that room everyday). Besides, the videos you have seen are taken by ordinary people. If you shoot a video of voting booth and send it to BBC or CNN, you can be easily charged with espionage. (capital punishment, remember?)

5. Only some people have access to satellite TVs/internet (maybe 35%). Many of them are incapable of using it for this cause due to filtering and noising.

Many of those who can find a way to bypass filtering, don't dare to contact the outside world, as the government has easy access to their IPs through ISPs.

6. The interior ministry (as organizer), the guardian council (as supervisor), the supreme leader (who has the final say) were all aligned with Ahmadinejad.

They also had the support of all TV and Radio stations, and most of the newspapers (one of the major opposition newspapers was banned the day (?) before the election, and many of them are still being published with blank sections!).

They also had the support of Basij and Sepah (as means of protecting their big-lie coup government). If I were Ahmadinejad, I would have been tempted to do what he did, wouldn't you?

7. NEW. This is my own speculation. One of the few tasks in which the government of Ahmadinejad has been successful, is the "Privatization Act", based on which the government has to privatize its properties and industries. Sepah (THE major supporter of Ahmadinejad) has been given many deals. I speculate that Sepah has organized this coup to warrant its success in getting the deals. Could this be the reason? Maybe!

Now, do you get a sense of why the current government is a "coup" government? If yes, welcome to the club! If no, try to convince yourself that in a country where 53% of people (63% of the 84% turnout) are in favor of Ahmadinejad, people feel so cheated that they pour into the streets, despite the shootings and batons.

One the other hand, a true popular government should have let people to demonstrate peacefully. (do you remember the silent protests few days after the election?). A true popular government would not have violently dispersed the crowd on the third day after the election.

Would you be behind Hitler if he supported anti imperialism agenda of yours? This was one of the most fraudulent elections in the modern history. You know, I know, everyone knows it.

Your lines of arguments are on the same level with Agha Mojtaba Khamenei. Congratulations you are now officially Islamic Republic of Iran's useful idiot.

Your anti Americanism and antisemitism are getting really boring. One trick pony as we say.

To a real cyrus: The question of election legitimacy seems critical. If the election results were not valid, then the demonstrators are challenging an unconstitutional fraud. If the election results were valid, the violent protests (there were many on youtube) were an attempt to destabilize a legitimate democratically elected government. In essence, an attempt to overthrow the will of the people, a coup. No government in the world will fail to attempt violence in order to stop a coup. Consider what the government would do if you threw Molotov cocktails at a government building, regardless of where you live. Consider what the US government would do if a million protesters descended on Washington DC, some of who changed "Death to Obama", some of who attacked police, some of who burned city buses, and some of who tried to storm a national guard armory. I think the response would be extremely violent. Lastly, I don't think anyone should be ashamed of trying to investigate the truth.

To Amir: The protesters in Iran have used western media to garner world wide support for their cause. They have totally failed to provide specific details of their complaints in English. I have read countless times of how "many" Mousavi personnel were denied access to the polling station (a right under Iranian law). This seems to be a major complaint. If it occurred, why not give a specific number of violations? Why have we seen no video supporting this claim, it's obvious that cameras are plentiful among the opposition. Did no one have the foresight to film this clear violation of Iranian law, which occurred "many" times? Maybe answers exist to these questions, but the opposition has so far been incompetent at detailing anything (at least in English). Thanks for providing information though, I wish more would do this.

To Aslan: You seem to support the opposition. The opposition seems to yearn for greater freedoms. Cyrus has simply exercised his freedom of speech. I have yet to read any of his words that seem to intimidate or stifle the rights of anyone. You threaten him with death, in an apparent attempt to stifle his right to speak. Doesn't this make you a threat to freedom, not a champion of the cause?

To everyone: Since I'm American, this entire issue is none of my business. I hope the majority of Iranians can resolve this issue, for both Iran and its people.

The day will come "Cyrus" when Islamics like you will hang from the trees by your turbans as the revolution of the People of Iran against Arab-lovers like you will overtake your pathetic tyrannical government. Mozdoor Kaseef! We know how to deal with the likes of you. Until then you better watch out because we know who you are and where you live.

[Cy responds: 30 years of living in Camp Ashraf and sitting in exile in LA under the photos of His Imperial Majesty hasn't taught you people anything, nor have you accomplished a single positive thing for the people of Iran. You're still a bunch of thugs who now exploit the name of democracy simply because it is convenient. So bite me.)

To "the real Cyrus": You shouldn't be accusing others that just have a different point of view. Listen and argue, if you can!
To "Cyrus": Did you get a chance to look at the 27-page rebuttal document prepared by the greens? I am assuming that you can read Farsi. If you don't, let me know and I'll translate if for you.

Please consider that the organizers and the body who oversaw the election process were all supporters of Ahmadinejad. It is almost impossible for the greens to provide hard "evidence of election fraud" when their hands are tied. Their evidence consists of bits and pieces from here and there. The latest evidence, which is not documented in the 27-page document is that the voting papers shown on tv (during re-count) were all new and unfolded. I re-visited the pictures and videos of the election to see if people fold their votes before putting them in the boxes. Guess what, I have not seen even one person putting in his/her vote unfolded. Even Khamenei himself folded his vote. As I said, this is not a hard evidence, but adds to the preponderance of the conclusion (and a fraudulent election).

The issue is no longer the "lack of hard evidence" as there are lots of bits and pieces. The issue is the fact that the current government suffocates anyone who provides such bits and pieces, let alone cooperating in collecting hard evidence.

[Mousavi and the others participated in the same system that you're claiming was fundamentally unfair to start with. So, what was their problem? Was it only unfair if they lost? And the "evidence" of the "unfolded ballots" was made up by anonymous commenters on various blogs who until now can't actually present any evidence of fraud. Incidentally, the photos of those "unfolded ballots" clearly show that they're actually voting rolls, not ballots.]

cyrus you should change your name to mahmud or a name that is not persian. obviously you don't care about your people. even if the election was fair and everything was legal and honest the regime changed that by brutally hitting people on the street and shooting at young innocent men and women. no government should be recognized as legitimate when they treat their own people the way Islamic Republic did or still does. even if i had voted to ahmadinejad, i want my vote annulled. no one can kill my brother and sisters so brutally and claim to be my elected representative. why do they take away the injured (even from hospitals)? why do they torture and rape the detainees? why they don't let people have a decent burial for their sons and daughters? i can't believe a human being could do thing this regime does. i always hated shah but in comparison to this regime he was a saint (i still hate a monarchy, don't get me wrong)

who cares what the election claims or counter-claims are. write something that you can be proud of. write something that few years from now, when you look back, you won't feel ashamed of. be the voice of people. government have the state media as their voice already. be the voice of those who can't be heard.

(Cy responds: Don't presume to lecture other people about morality. People like me have seen and heard enough to know what the world is like. Regardless, the fact is that there's no evidence of election fraud in Iran. Deal with it.)

Behrooz: It was very clear that Khamenei supported Ahmadinejad from the very beginning. Khamenei's last week's Friday Prayer leaves us with "no doubt" now. This is a violation of Iran's law. It also questions supreme leader's fairness, and therefore, his qualification for the job, and therefore the election itself that he managed. This may not be an evidence of rigging, but certainly adds to its preponderance.

Cyrus: Mousavi did complain about the ban on his inspectors, both at the time when he proclaimed victory, and also officially after the detailed stats were released. As for the 50% of the inspectors that were allowed in, I am not sure whether they were allowed in from start to end. (I have not seen any details on that)

The following files [in Farsi] detail the infractions that occurred prior to, during, and after the election. (The two files and a cover letter were prepared by the greens and were submitted to the GC before the final approval of the election)

file 1
file 2

Unfortunately I don't have time to translate them.

You should update this post using the claims of fraud provided here:

Extraordinary post and tremendous comments! In particular, I would like to ask Aussiewoman and Amir if they would be so kind as to provide the sources for their fascinating details - either here, on my own blog ( or privately to me at Thanks to all of you.

I forgot two more things:

1) The Terror Free Tommorow poll actually found that Ahmadinejad was favored over Mousavi, 31% to 16% among Azeris.

2) Former CIA agent Bob Baer did a piece on Time and said that the CIA expected Ahmadinejad to win and the voter turnout to be 89%.

I just want to say up front that I believe the election was overall fair.

Here are some extra information:

1) According to the electoral President, Daneshjou: He said that there were 60 million ballots printed. And 2 million extra were printed on the day of the election. Maybe that debunks the shortage of ballots claim.

2) About the claim that "50% of the observers were not permitted" to observe. The Guardian Council has reported a total of only 646 total violations from the 3 candidates. This includes complaints of time constraints, ballot shortages, lack of access for representatives, etc. So with 47,000 total observers, the alleged lack of access is a small percentage.

3) I am not sure about this. But I dont even remember seeing Karoubi being polled at over 5% in any pre-election polling in 2009.

4) Question: Was there only 1 ballot box per polling station? (just want to know for clarity)

One of the most weakest pro Ahamadinejad posts I've read in recent days.

[Cy responds: I'm pro using your brain. But thanks for the highly substantive comment anyway.]

good job cyrus,

i tried to make the fallacy of the "linear" relationship clear here . I'm no expert in dealing with the statistics but what was being said was like a joke to my engineering commonsense.


amir: I hope you are not delibrately trying to misinform. e.g., iran has had these 5-year plans since the end of the war and near the end of each one the government in place is asked to prepare the next. just like ahmadinejad ran on a platform that was prepared during khatami's second term (and there lies much of the criticism against him by the bureaucrats in iran for deviating from it)

Election process at polling booths:

At least 14 officials from different agencies monitor each election booth, these include executive branch team, local governors rep, guardian council team, police monitor, interior ministry inspector, and reps from each candidates team. Counting is done in the presence of all these officials then 5 "form 22" are filled in which includes number of ballots for each candidates, number of invalid ballots, and the number of unused ballots left at the polling station. All 14 officials sign the forms. One copy of form 22 is placed in the ballot box which is then resealed, others go to the governors office. After this a form 28 is filled and sent to the interior ministry for tallying. The ballot box and form 22 remain in case of any disputes. All ballot papers have serial numbers and province indicator.

With these checks in place how exactly is someone meant to cheat by 11 million votes?

Other points
1. Karroubi vote drop from last election is explained by his performance in the debate with Ahmadinejad who got Karroubi to admit on live TV that he took a huge bribe from a convicted felon (although he claimed no favours were given in return). This explained Karroubi's luxury mansion in North Tehran which Amadinejad insisted on mentioning.

2. On Mousavis poor vote in Tabriz: (from Robert Fisk article where to talks to an Iranian friend):

"The election figures are correct, Robert. Whatever you saw in Tehran, in the cities and in thousands of towns outside, they voted overwhelmingly for Ahmadinejad. Tabriz voted 80 per cent for Ahmadinejad. It was he who opened university courses there for the Azeri people to learn and win degrees in Azeri. In Mashad, the second city of Iran, there was a huge majority for Ahmadinejad after the imam of the great mosque attacked Rafsanjani of the Expediency Council who had started to ally himself with Mousavi. They knew what that meant: they had to vote for Ahmadinejad."

"You know why so many poorer women voted for Ahmadinejad? There are three million of them who make carpets in their homes. They had no insurance. When Ahmadinejad realised this, he immediately brought in a law to give them full insurance. Ahmadinejad's supporters were very shrewd. They got the people out in huge numbers to vote – and then presented this into their vote for Ahmadinejad."

Even assuming that it is true that half of the opposition inspectors were denied access as Amir claims, that's more than enough inspectors to catch any fraud. Indeed, lets remember that Mousavi never complained about this as evidence of fraud and even proclaimed himself the winner of the elections.

Counter to claim 4: To me, the crack down seems to be incoherent, and disorganized. Not a good argument. If they expected riots, they could have let the opposition start a fight, and then swiftly won that fight. One example, leave one Basij base poorly defended. Let the protesters take it, get a few weapons. Being prepared, this would all be filmed, and then you hit the base hard, killing or capturing all in one swift raid. Now you have documented proof of a violent insurrection. Even those who vote for the loser in an election rarely support violent insurrection. End of opposition.

Additional data:
1) No incumbent president has ever lost an election in Iran. Incumbents enjoy an incredible advantage in every democracy.
2) The percentage of votes he won are only slightly higher than his percentage in 2005, when he was far less well known, and running against a previous two-term president. I'm not sure, but before 2005, had Rafsanjani ever lost an election?
3) Nobody is talking about nationalism. If a voter is nationalistic, who would they prefer? Ahmadinejad has butted heads with the US and Europe, and has not backed down. Some would argue this hurts him, but I would think many would respect this. With the US and Europeans occupying 2 neighboring countries, ignoring this fact seems folly.
4) Now people are talking up the Chatham House study. I think there are many problems with this study. They looked at the first round 2005, ignored the second round 2005. They used 2006 census data. I'm going out on a limb here, there are more people in 2009 than in 2006. I think Iranians can register when they vote, this could easily change the numbers. They seem to ignore, that the electorate is 4 years older. Some 2005 voters are now dead, and some 2009 voters were not of age in 2005. I'm not a statistician, so I cannot evaluate their methods, but nobody seems to want to wait for anyone qualified to do so. Great application of the scientific method there!

Why does every argument for the obvious conclusion (that the election was rigged) seem to include such huge problems? If no solid argument for how the election was rigged can be constructed, it seems reasonable to assume that it wasn't rigged. With so much brain power supporting the rigged conclusion, and since no such argument is forthcoming, I'm tempted to conclude that this vote was not rigged. So far, I've resisted, but it is so tempting...

The counter claims are extraordinarily weak in my view. They are not at all realistic.

Anyone who follows election results and swings would strongly disagree that it is possible for Ahmadinjad to have done so well in the home district of Mousavi.

The mood of the people was not with Ahmadinejad at all. It was quite the opposite.

Also with regard to Rezi and the votes that disappeared. He conducted his own research, asking for those who voted for him to send their IDS. The difference was about 200,000 more IDs sent than the votes he received. I think that is very strong evidence of vote rigging.

Well, there is one important reason missing:
The interior minister, the GC, the government-owned media, and the supreme leader were all in favor of Ahmadinejad. They had the motive, the tools, and the authority to mess with the results. The only inspection-mechanisms other candidates had were their inspectors, 50% of whom were not permitted into the polling stations (at least not from start to end).
Preponderance of the evidence tends towards a fraudulent election result:

____Before election:
* Couple of months ago, Khamenei asked the government to plan for the 5 years ahead (as if he knew Ahmadinejad will be re-elected)
* Just before election, Sepah issued that any colored-revolution attempts will be "killed at embryo" (from start).
* Sepah conducted anti-riot maneuvers just before election (unprecedented)
* Reformist newspapers were banned just before election
_____During election:
* About half of the inspectors were denied access
* Kayhan newspaper posted on its websites that Ahmadinejad has won with 24 million. That was before the polling boxes even being closed/counted.
* Some of the inspectors have reported that they received a call from interior ministry, telling them that there is no need to count the boxes; Ahmadinejad has won with a large 70% margin.
_____After election:
* The number of votes for Rezaei decreased at one point, during the counting period. Although it is claimed that it was a typo, the percentages and other numbers were consistent with the typo!)
* The total number of votes were reported first, then the numbers per province were published, and after a couple of days, numbers per box were reported. (this is in wrong wrong order. Again, unprecedented)
* Khamenei endorsed the results before the GC. (again, unprecedented)
* If the results had made sense, people shouldn't have spontaneously poured into streets to protest. (specially if the president elect has 63% of the 85% that took part in the election).
* If the results were not rigged, the government souldn't have crushed the peaceful protests (peaceful and silent protests are different that riots, as suggested in your CC#4)
* Karroubi's votes are far far less that his votes 4 years ago. It doesn't make sense. Even far less that his newspaper circulation!
* Rezaei has a list of confirmed voters that is more than his number of votes
and the list goes on ...

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