Austin Bay Blog

Reader and architect Douglas Young adds his thoughts on the Goldn Mosque attack. Compare Mr. Young’s take to civil engineer and combat engineer, The Sapper.

Douglas Young:

RE: View inside dome looking up, the exterior shots seem to make it look larger than it is: http://images.ctv.ca/archives/CTVNews/img2/20060222/160X_ap_mosque_060222.jpg Recent pic showing scaffolding up around dome: http://www.sandhills.edu/patrick/index3.html I have not seen any photos showing bars actually coming out of the masonry, therefore it would seem that the bars in the ‘after’ photos are the remains of the scaffolding. The scaffolding surely would’ve made it pretty easy to gain covert access to plant charges from the outside. Pic from outer edge of courtyard back toward dome: http://www.kgw.com/sharedcontent/nationworld/dailyimages/022206shrine.jpg Notice how the damage resembles more the effects of collapse than a scattered blast pattern. There is very little debris away from the pile at the wall. If I were looking at destroying a structure of that type, (and I’m not) it seems that a charge inside the dome would be far more effective per weight than charges planted outside, which would have to work against the compressive strength of the dome. Note also that the total destruction area is only at the very uppermost section of the dome, the remainder of the damage seems to be from the corbelled masonry above the onion dome thrustline being fractured off and dropping down onto the structures below. The supporting masonry from the dome thrust line downward is almost undamaged. There is no lantern or other architectural element visible in the ‘before’ pics to suggest that a walkway or space of any kind would’ve been between the ‘inner’ and ‘outer’ domes. Unreinforced masonry construction would also make it very, very difficult to accomplish in an onion dome (as opposed to a traditional dome like St. Peters or Florence cathedral. Note also that the more dramatic the ancient structure, the more likely that the structural envelope was being pushed- and that flirts with disaster, as in Hagia Sophia, whose dome has collapsed several times over the centuries. If you could launch a rocket or mortar round of sufficient size, and triggered remotely (or by ‘martyr’) straight up from the middle of the dome’s rotunda, you could achieve the results we have seen pretty simply and quickly (in terms of set-up time). The other option that makes sense here is charges at the thrust line of the dome to ‘lift’ the onion bulge off the dome, pretty much what we’re seeing. Charges in an interstitial space in the dome would have lead to more debris inside the dome from the material inwards of the charges. I’m an architect, not an engineer or demolitions specialist, but that’s my take on it.

Iran will provide some “open source” money to Hamas. Reuters reports:

Iran has agreed to provide a Hamas-led Palestinian Authority with enough money to make up for any cuts in foreign aid, a senior Hamas official said on Tuesday.

But the official, Khalil Abu Laila, and other Hamas spokesmen could not confirm a report in the London-based al-Hayat newspaper that Tehran promised the group’s leader, Khaled Meshaal, about $250 million to compensate for the loss of U.S. and European aid.

Al-Hayat quoted Palestinian sources in Damascus, where Meshaal lives in exile. Meshaal visited Tehran and other regional powers earlier this month in search of financial support for the cash-strapped Palestinian Authority.

“Iran has promised to make up for any cut in aid,” Abu Laila told Reuters in Gaza.

The article adds:

U.S. and Israeli officials are concerned that Tehran, which also refuses to recognize Israel, will gain influence over a Hamas-led government, hampering efforts to reach a Middle East peace settlement.

Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, whose Gulf Arab state is a staunch U.S. ally, said his country will continue to support Hamas in industrial and health projects. He said that Hamas had come to power after elections “that were probably the most successful in the Arab world.”

“That is why we must support Hamas at this stage as well as stress the importance that both the Palestinians and Israelis remain committed to the peace process,” he said in remarks published on Tuesday.

“We in Qatar will continue to support them in industrial projects and hospitals,” he added.

Like Hamas, Iran has threatened to destroy Israel, so from the perspective of die-hard fanatics funding die-hard fanaticism, supplying money makes sense. The next step: an open alliance.

But what to call the aliiance? PITO, perhaps, The Palestine-Iran Treaty Organization? If (when?) Iran gets a nuclear weapon, Iran threatens Israel with nuclear counter-attack for any “incursion” into Hamas-led Palestine. Does Israel then join NATO? Heck, France’s Jacques Chirac has already threatened nuclear retaliation. (Note to commenters: Don’t take the name PITO seriously– though it’s conceivable the Iran-Hamas de-facto alliance could well become a formal “state to state” arrangement.)

Prosecuting leakers gains steam. Some thoughts from Stuart Taylor in The National Journal.

Taylor provides a quick history of the press in “watchdog” mode, focusing primarily on national security issues and use of classified materials.

Key graf:

Striking the right balance requires journalistic responsibility as well as prosecutorial restraint. Journalists should not publish every secret they can get their hands on, especially in the face of plausible warnings that publication may do damage.

Dog bites man isn’t much of a story, the journalism school wits claim. Man bites dog is. The Valerie Plame case was supposed to bite the Bush Administration. The Plame Case has bit the press (like many thoughtful folks said it would). The Plame affair proved to be far less than touted. “Hot dog of a story bites watchdog”– perhaps that should be the headline.

Michael Barone on Bush’ grand strategy, focusing on the NSS document of September 2002:

In other respects, Bush has not delivered on the promises of the NSS. The Free Trade Area of the Americas, envisioned for 2005, is nowhere in sight. And “an independent and democratic Palestine, living beside Israel in peace and security,” won’t appear soon.

But there is much evidence that Bush has made good on the multilateral diplomacy that the strategy called for. He has let Britain, France and Germany carry on negotiations with Iran; urged China, the only country with real leverage, to use it against North Korea; and worked with France in supporting the “Cedar Revolution” in Lebanon. And America is getting more cooperation from newly elected governments in Germany and Canada.

He makes this prediction, one I agree with, but know will be difficult and rhetorically-hot to execute:

My prediction: Bush’s successors, for all their criticisms (John McCain wants a larger military; Hillary Rodham Clinton says she wouldn’t have voted for military action in Iraq knowing what she knows now), will find it hard to move outside the framework of the National Security Strategy, as they take on Bush’s burden of fighting what we’re starting to call the Long War.

Bill Kristol bewails the Bush administration’s political failures but understands the “long” perspective means continuing to pursue an offensive strategy.

Indeed, it would be nice if we lived in a world in which we didn’t have to take the enemies of liberal democracy seriously–a world without jihadists who want to kill and clerics who want to intimidate and tyrants who want to terrorize. It would be nice to wait until we were certain conditions were ripe before we had to act, a world in which the obstacles are trivial and the enemies fold up. Unfortunately, that is not the world we live in.

To govern is to choose, and to accept responsibility for one’s choices. To govern is not wishfully to await the end of history. To govern is not fatalistically to watch a clash of civilizations from the sidelines.

As Marshall Wittmann of the Democratic Leadership Council observed last week, “We are in the midst of a jihadist offensive. The bombing of [Iraq’s] Askariya Shiite Shrine is another indication of the world-wide jihadist offensive against the West. From the cartoon jihad to the Hamas victory to the Iranian effort to obtain nuclear weapons to the attempt by al Qaeda to foment an Iraqi civil war–our enemy is taking the initiative. And the West is on its heels.”

The Bush administration leads the West. If the West seems to be on its heels, it is because the administration seems to be on its heels. The fact that the left is utterly irresponsible, and some of the right is silly, is no excuse.

Wittmann continued, “Many mistakes have been made since 9/11. But at the end of the day, we should recognize that we are all Americans and part of the West that is under assault by a truly evil foe. Our bravest are on the front lines in this war. The least we can do at home is to demonstrate some moral seriousness that the moment demands.”

The “Bush political failure” I worry about hasn’t happened yet– but signs of failure abound. What preparation is the administration is the administration making to hand over strategic control of The War on Terror to a subsequent administration? How is the administration preparing to fight a multi-generational, multi-administration war?

I discussed this problem in another Weekly Standard article (July 2005).

UPDATE: Welcome INstapundit readers. I mentioned the NSS of September 2002 in a column written two weeks ago. It is an essential “warfighting” statement. Comments will take three to six hours to appear today. Also, read the comment rules. Accusations of crimes and name-calling violate this site’s rules.

StrategyPage puts down a marker (on February 27):

…Now the growing Interior Ministry forces are determined to find the Golden Mosque bombers, and that will leave many of terrorists, and supporters, dead or arrested. The Golden Mosque bombing will turn out to be another major defeat for the terrorists. If for no other reason than it got the two major Shia factions, the Badr and Sadr groups, to stop fighting each other, and join forces.

I had a long talk Saturday afternoon (February 25) with an Iraqi friend (a Sunni). This was his conclusion. My friend praised reporting at the Iraq The Model website.

The attack on the Golden Mosque (or any holy site in Iraq) is the terrorists’ “silver bullet” (apologies to the Lone Ranger). “Golden bullet” would be more metaphorically consistent. A major attack on a holy site was regarded as inevitable. Zarqawi’s letter captured in February 2004 said he intended to ignite a sectarian war in Iraq. In June 2004 and August 2004 attended two staff meetings in Babil at the Polish division headquarters. The Poles and Iraqi police constantly focused on wow to secure Shia sites and protect Shia pilgrims in the Najaf and Karbala areas.

Well, a shrine has blown but the massive, fatal, democracy-destroying sectarian war hasn’t ignited. The next two weeks, however, will be a difficult passage.

UPDATE: The AP reports the Sunni political boycott i Iraq may be ending.

Western press sources (this from London) report a political crackdown in the Philippines.

CNN reports that the head of the Filipino marines was sacked after coup reports.

philippinecommentary has much more on the “face off” at Fort Bonifacio in Makati City (marine headquarters). Read the comments section for updates. One comment reports that Congressman Noynoy Aquino, son of Ninoy Aquino and Corazon Aquino has arrived at Fort Bonifacio to “negotiate.” Read the entire report.

UPDATE: From philppinecommentary ’s latest reports (same thread as the link above, dated 3:38 PM February 27):

Was there really a coup d’etat being planned involving the NPA and CPP and the military Rightists? Or haha, was the Palace spooked by Nelly Sindayen’s Time Magazine Article with Tony Spaeth that CAUSED the panic and brought this on. The Leftist has been charged (Crispin Beltran) in a 21 year old case. The Rightists charged are for a 3 year old coup detat (Gringo Honasan). Who else has been charged? None, not even danilo lim or querubin! Where’s the coup d’etat attempt AP?

The jury is still out on the FACTUAL BASES for Proclamation 1017. That stuff about Left-Right tactical alliance could turn out to be a fairy tale for adults. The Time Mag story is just breaking…

The comments on the site are superb. (Good comments and discussion here, too.)

A must-read essay in the LA Times by Catherine Seipp.

A trip to San Francisco’s famous “City Lights” book store reveals lots of Ward Churchill screed, but no copies of Oriana Fallaci’s “The Force of Reason.” Why?

Seipp says her friend asked:

asked a clerk if the new Fallaci book was in yet.

“No,” snapped the clerk. “We don’t carry books by fascists.”

Now let’s just savor the absurd details of this for a minute. City Lights has a long and proud history of supporting banned authors — owner Lawrence Ferlinghetti was indicted (and acquitted) for obscenity in 1957 for selling Allen Ginsberg’s “Howl,” and a photo at the bookstore showed Ferlinghetti proudly posing next to a sign reading “banned books.”

Yet his store won’t carry, of all people, Fallaci, who is not only being sued in Italy for insulting religion because of her latest book but continues to fight the good fight against those who think that the appropriate response to offensive books and cartoons is violent riots. It’s particularly repugnant that someone who fought against actual fascism in World War II should be deemed a fascist by a snotty San Francisco clerk.

Strangest of all is the scenario of such a person disliking an author for defending Western civilization against radical Islam — when one of the first things those poor, persecuted Islamists would do, if they ever (Allah forbid) came to power in the United States, is crush suspected homosexuals like him beneath walls.

Here’s the latest anti-free speech shuck and jive–and Seipp’s answer to it:

“Freedom of speech is not absolute. It has to be in the service of something, like peace or social justice,” a young British Muslim woman named Fareena Alam wrote in Britain’s the Observer a couple of weeks ago. Although it’s true that freedom of speech is not absolute — laws against libel and making violent threats are stronger in Britain than here — Alam has it exactly wrong. Free speech doesn’t have to be in the service of anything but its own point of view. If it did, it wouldn’t be free speech.

Read the whole thing.

This site’s server was down for maintenance work from 3:30 PM CST until 8 PM CST, Saturday, February 26.

UPDATE: Response to comment: I understand Saturday afternoon or Sunday morning are the best times to schedule server maintenance. There’s less traffic.

Tigerhawk analyzes Iran’s threat to attack Israel– and it’s a different take.

This week’s suicide attacks on Saudi oilfields flopped. However, Al Qaeda has the Saud regime in its gunsights, and has for some time.

This post continues my series of looks at the declassified Al Qaeda documents found at West Point’s counter-terror center’s wbsite.

Pirates got the black spot, Lady MacBeth had the damned spot. I’ll title this document “the Oil Spot”
— a curious phrase but genocidal fanatics are curious people. (But not so curious– see update on tache d’huile–provided by a commenter.)

The website’s synopsis is a good introduction and survey of the document:

The author writes to his honored mentor and presents his views on the leadership skills and tactics that Al-Qa’ida must use to achieve victory. Emphasis is given to the political and military methods as well as public relations strategies and information management techniques that can produce positive results for Al-Qa’ida.
Key Themes: The writer emphasizes a leadership style that calls for reflection, self-knowledge, and the development of a database on Al-Qa’ida members and programs. The movement must be guided by the study of its people and the development of practical conclusions.
Next is a review of the public relations assets. Osama Bin Laden is considered a “…star similar to the fortress of Saddam” who has used the Al-Jazeera channel very effectively. Insufficient effort was made to exploit the success of the Mujahideen in Somalia against the Americans. The bombings in Dar es Saalam and Nairobi likewise were not exploited successfully for their promotional value in the Saudi peninsula and are described as a “horrible informational and political shortfall.”
Al-Qa’ida should emulate Hamas and have the statements of “martyrs” videotaped prior to their operations. If the efforts of martyrs from the Peninsula were publicized, this would have a tremendous impact on recruitment in Saudi Arabia.

I’ve added the emphasis.

The synopsis ends with this paragraph:

The fight against the Americans (Jews and Crusaders) is characterized as a series of battles; the struggle with Saudi Arabia is a war. An oil spot strategy must be pursued against Saudi Arabia, with the goal of expanding the circle of jihad through successful operations that break down the fear barrier which keeps Mujahideen from fully engaging the Saudi state.

What’s the oil spot? (See comments: Al Qaeda, the base, intends to expand.)

The phrase appears on page 43 in the text (toward the end of the document). I’ll post the excerpt from page 43. (Page in this case is the translators page, not the pdf page). The letter’s author, is Abu Huthayfa, has been discussing guidance from Osama Bin Laden (aka Abu Abdullah). They focus on some strategic and operational goals, based on “lessons learned.” (Expanding is the key guidance.) Much of the focus is on “informational” operations (information, media, propaganda, psyops) :

Page 43
1- Reinstituting confidence in the hearts of the Muslim masses concerning the jihad Movement after they had almost turned away from it as a result of some setbacks, which were used by the counterinformational media to keep the people away from it. Reinstituting confidence is done by hitting the enemies who do not differ in their hostilities to Islam and its peoples as well as in usurping their resources and occupying their lands.
2- Preparing the environment for fighting the Saudi system, which utilizes arbitrary measures to limit jihad efforts, by arousing the sense of dignity and valor in the hearts of the people as well as by exploiting their hatred of the system resulting from these measures.
3- Struggle is the key for fighting the Saudi system.
4- Acquiring political, military, and administrative experiences through field battles to become a stock in the assets of the mujahidin in their war against the system; war build combatants.
5- Discrediting the awesomeness image of the Saudi system and removing the leaf of mulberry tree used to cover its genitals [shortcomings].
6- Breaking the barrier of fear and hesitation from the minds of the mujahidin for participating in jihad activities.
7- Expanding the circle of jihad horizontally and vertically via assassinating some of the leaders of disbelief in the system; this is called (the oil spot).
8- After the escalation of operations against the crusader enemy in a compounding rate and at the critical point, the mujahidin command declares war against the Saudi system at the appropriate circumstance and after a long practice in carrying out item 7 [above] while taking into consideration the principles and techniques of guerilla war.
[to] Page 44…

“Oil spot” :it indicates the assassination of senior Saudi leaders. (UPDATE: With the intent of gaining control of the Arabian Peninsula– and using that to expand Al Qaeda’s influence.)

This excerpt (near the beginning of the document) contains the author’s operational and strategic assessments. He is very interested in activities on the “Peninsula” (Arabian peninsula, especially Saudi Arabia). Al Jazeera figures into the calculations.:

We can summarize the most important developments as follows:
1- The emergence of a number of students at the prominent jihad level of our ancestors who are willing to sacrifice, fight for freedom, and boldly say the truth. Moreover, they have the capability to qualify for administrative and military duties.
2- Security violations produced a hundred young men capable of handling programmatic tasks and security matters. They acquired some administrative experience in managing struggle domestically and developed some appropriate tactical and strategic beliefs through years of rich and live experience. Some of these people can be justly described as (a thunderbolt of war if he has the appropriate people).
Page 8
[Blank page]
Page 9
3- A great informational and political vacuum developed especially after the stagnation of Al-Mis‘ari and Al-Faqeeh [varant An-Naqiyya] project, and subsequently, most of the people, especially the committed, left this project.
4- Osama Ben Ladin emerged as a star similar to the fortress of Saddam and advanced to face the American enemy along with the Saudi regime. The people in that area responded favorably to his stated objectives and expressed their admiration with some comments and reservations.
5- People have great desire to know Osama and listen to his statements. This was obvious when Al-Jazeera Channel aired his interview with it. This movement is fully capable to fill in the political vacuum in the peninsula due to its sound organization and good program. Regrettably, this movement suffered from great political and informational deficiency, which makes you sympathetic to its blessed march. In fact this deficiency is considered one of the killers of the movement. We will go over some of the incidents that did not have adequate informational and political coverage.
1- If we go back a little (to the events in Somalia) and carefully think of this situation, we will recognize the extent at which we fell short in the informational and political efforts. We did not invest these events politically to serve the jihad program. Most of the people inside [the country] are unaware of the great effort the mujahidin made against the American forces.
Page 10

Somalia –yes, Somalia and the US pullback is an essential experience for Al Qaeda. America is also in Al Qaeda’s gunsights. The author adds:

There is still an opportunity to publish the file of Somalia and the role of the men over there in the informational media and to invest it politically to serve the movement’s project whose one of its objectives is to fight the Americans. Publicizing those events will motivate and encourage the nation, breaks the barrier of fear and gives it a live and actual example of the recent experiment in which the mujahidin succeeded in achieving the target and driving the enemy away.

Here’s some technical advice for the “informational” and Political” sections on producing propaganda:

Page 25

They can do that by giving well-prepared speeches, songs, and reading poetry, etc. Then the informational section undertakes the appropriate technical production segments of the celebration, and finally this [video- aped] celebration is distributed to the people. The political application of this event is based on the fact that we live in a country of immigration where we practice our normal life including marriage and happy occasions and enjoy every blessed occasion of life despite the war declared by the international enemy. These occasions will have important implications and varying psychological effects on the minds of different people; however, all implications fall in one path and that is shaking up the conscience of the people and moving the feelings of the hesitant on the issue of immigration especially when the compares between his situation and the situation of his brothers in the country of immigration who are living happily, in a relaxed mood and with no worries or sad moments and always ready to fight. This is only one of many examples; the political section must always be alert and conscious of every case that serves the interest of the [jihad] project; he should delve into it and utilize it to serve the goals of the Movement. The political developments facing the nation are many although the people are unaware of . Thus, they need someone to clear them up such as the alleged peace efforts with the Jews, the terrorist conferences such as the conference of Sharm al-Sheik [Egypt], the conference of the Arab ministers of the interior, in addition to many other issues, in which the political section can do a great job in explaining them, analyzing them and using them in awakening the Muslim masses…

Overall assessment: Read my post on Takfir wal-Hijra. This document reflects Salafist/jihadist thinking from the late 1960s and early 1970s, but it has “matured” in some respects. America “ran” from Somalia. Resistance to the Saudi regime has increased. The document drives another stake into the foolish argument that “America created Al Qaeda” or “our actions are responsible for their terror.”

UPDATE: A tipjar reminder –if you are so inclined, please hit this site’s tipjar to support the April 22 milblog conference in Washington. Thank you.

UPDATE 2: Excellent discussion in the comments. The “ink spot” interpretation may be spot on, so to speak.

UPDATE 3: And it is spot on. Follow this link.Double Tonguer Word Wrester says:

Gallieni called this carefully coordinated military and social strategy the tache d’huile, the oil spot. Start out and carefully secure a hundred such bases and you are on your way to conquering a country.

Andy Krepenivich used it in a Foreign Affairs article. Mea culpa– I read that article when it appeared. Shouldn’t have missed the reference but did. Again, thanks to the commenters.

If you haven’t been following the Jeff Bagwell saga, The Houston Chronicle has. Bagwell, arguably the best player in Astros franchise history, missed most of last season with a chronic shoulder injury. He had surgery, made it back on the roster for the playoffs where he pinch hit and then DH’d in the World Series. The big question: can he throw and cover a position?

Houstn owner Drayton McLane and Bagwell don’t see eye to eye– that may be a mild way of putting it. McLane invoked a disability insurance policy covering Bagwell and Bagwell sees that as a slight.

Bagwell’s first day of spring training (Friday, February 24) seemed to go fairly well.

Read the entire Chronicle sports report for the details. These grafs provide pertinent background:

With reporters watching his every move, Bagwell fielded ground balls, took batting practice, did conditioning work and then discussed what was anything but a routine day at the office.

“I knew this was going to be a little bit of a circus, where the focus was going to be on me today, and that’s certainly not what I want,” he said. “That’s just the way it is. But hopefully, we get today out of the way and move on like normal spring training after this.”

Bagwell, 37, arrived at spring training hoping to show he can once again be an everyday player despite a right shoulder injury that forced him to miss 115 games last year following surgery.

While the Astros maintain they would like to have Bagwell in the opening-day lineup, they have filed an insurance claim that would pay them $15.6 million of the $17 million Bagwell is owed this year if he can’t play.

“This is a difficult thing,” Bagwell said. “I understand the business side of baseball. If I cannot play baseball this year, and I am physically unable to play with the Houston Astros, trust me, I want them to collect as much insurance as possible. I’ll write the letter. That’s not an issue for me. But I just want the chance to see if I can play.”

Astros owner Drayton McLane admitted earlier this week that Bagwell’s presence at spring training probably wouldn’t help the club’s chances of collecting insurance….

A fading star, a tough owner, a bad shoulder, a lot of money, and a lot of desire. Call the script writer– this is very good.

As for Roger Clemens pitching for the Astros? The rumor mill (apparently based on a quip by Astros catcher Brad Ausmus) says he will. No, I do not have the quip. Like I said, it’s a rumor. But spring training thrives with rumors, quips, and hopes. (Another rumor says pitcher Andy Pettitte made the quip.) Clemens can’t resign with the Astros until May 1.

UPDATE: An earlier Chronicle article, entitled “Bags AIms To Stick It To Astros Brass.” Perfect headline for the scrit writer.

Here’s what Ausmus predicts for Bagwell in 2006: “”Twenty-five to 30 home runs,” Ausmus said. “And around 100 RBI.”"

Andi of Andi’s World is putting together the first of what we hope will be an annual military weblog conference.

The lady organized this ever-expanding conference on her own. She conceived of it, thought about, and developed a plan of action. In early January I got an email from her describing her vision for the conference. I thought it was a timely idea but one that would entail a lot of work, especially since she did not have a budget or a backer. That being said, strong, dedicated people can work wonders. Two weeks ago Andi emailed me and said that the VFW had offered to help the conference find a venue in the Washington area. A “thank you” to the VFW. I am not a member but I ought to join. The conference, however, is still a “do it yourself” operation. It’s reminiscent of a Busby Berkley flick: “Hey Dad, let’s throw a Broadway show in the garage.”

Here are the relevant links to the conference site and registration information.

Site link:

http://www.militarywebcom.org/MilBlogConference/2/Purpose.html

Registration Roster link:

http://militarywebcom.org/rndisp.php

Panelists information link:

http://www.militarywebcom.org/MilBlogConference/11/Conference+Panelists.html

We hope CSPAN will show up– and if the conference is soldout soon CSPAN may show up.

I will emcee the event and am doing it gratis — would love to have some public PayPal support for the airline tickets, the hotel, and other expenses. Please consider donating through this site’s PayPal account — the tip jar in the upper right hand corner. I will repeat this plea in the coming months. Thanks in advance.

The Houston Chronicle reports on contemporary cattle rustlers. A sad story (which the article say includes reporting from Houston’s KHOU-TV station).

The lede:

For the past six months, a small gang of thieves has used the cover of darkness and the lure of grain to steal about 450 head of cattle worth at least $500,000 from pastures across three Houston-suburban counties.

The latest theft happened Feb. 16 in a rural part of Fort Bend County where the gang cut a lock on a gate and then herded 27 animals onto a trailer and drove away leaving no witnesses and few clues.

The latest victim said the theft has hurt more than just his wallet.

“My stomach is tied up in knots. I’ll be going down the road and, heck, I don’t even know where am I going because I keep having this on my mind,” said Pete Vacek.

Vacek rents several pastures in the Needville area in southwest Fort Bend County and is still shocked that a portion of his herd was stolen.

“This is my livelihood. I just cannot believe this has happened to me,” he said…

Gerard Baker in the Times On-line.

His lede:

TWENTY YEARS AGO the American philosopher, Allan Bloom, published a book called The Closing of the American Mind, a devastating indictment of the nation’s universities and, more broadly, of its cultural elites.

Its premise was that the spirit of openness, a willingness to consider ideas freely, the great virtue of American life and the guiding ethos of a university had been perverted into a cultural relativism. From the 1960s liberal philosophy had taken hold, defiantly asserting that truth was in the eye of the beholder, and that notions of absolute ideals or virtues were anachronistic. In this new world, liberal democracy was no better than totalitarian theocracy, Plato’s philosophy was no more valid than Marianne Faithfull’s and Mozart should be considered on the same terms as the Monkees.

The resignation of Larry Summers as President of Harvard University this week indicates that the closing of the American mind is a continuing process, remorselessly squeezing the light out of its academic enlightenment.

An excerpt:

But it was not his arrogance, or his table manners, or even his envy-inducing genius that did for him at Harvard. It was his determined and ultimately futile effort to open the closed minds of America’s proudest academic elite.

Though a liberal Democrat, Summers had a traditional view of what a university should be doing, pursuing truth and excellence wherever it led.As he surveyed the vast ranks of well-paid academic celebrities at Harvard, puffing out their ideologies on women’s studies and black history, he wondered what it was all about.

Read the entire essay.

From today’s StrategyPage newsletter:

IRAN: Taking Heat for Supporting al Qaeda

February 24, 2006: Why blame Israel and the U.S. for attacks on Iraqi Shias? Simple, the government is openly supporting Sunni Arab terrorist organizations, as part of their “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” campaign against the United States. This is a dangerous tactic, because most Iranians are well aware of the fact that Sunni Arab Islamic terrorists eagerly kill Shia Moslems. Always have, always will. Shia and Sunni Islamic terrorists have worked together against a common enemy (the U.S. or Israel), but always with the understanding that Shia and Sunni can never be permanent allies.

The government signed more trade agreements with Syria. These agreements basically provide economic aid to prop up the pro-Iranian dictatorship in Syria.

February 23, 2006: The extremists now in power are losing support because of continued Sunni violence against Shias in Iraq, and economic problems in Iran. The government reaction to the recent attack on a Shia shrine in Iraq was particularly poorly received in Iran. Blaming the U.S. and Israel, and ignoring any mention of Sunni Arab thugs every Iranian knows is responsible, has not gone down well at all.

February 22, 2006: The government responded to the bombing of a Shia shrine in Iraq by blaming Israel and the United States for the attack.

February 21, 2006: Russia is trying to broker a deal to manufacture nuclear fuel for Iranians nuclear power plants, so that Iran will not have to (and not be able to create nuclear material for atomic bombs). Iran has refused, and knows that Russia is just going through the motions. Russia will veto any UN attempts to punish Iran, because Iran is becoming a major buyer of Russian goods (including weapons).

This is an excerpt from the morning letter. The material from the email appears on the site.

Philippine “coup” reports fly once more. The Associated Press reports:

The Philippine military worked to quash a coup plot Friday, arresting an army general and urging soldiers not to get involved in demonstrations against President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

Already-tight security was bolstered in the capital. The government canceled rally permits and told schools to call off classes, aiming to keep the opposition from exploiting scheduled demonstrations commemorating the 20th anniversary of the “people power” revolt that ousted dictator Ferdinand Marcos.

Arroyo held a pre-dawn emergency meeting of her national security council, said her chief of staff, Mike Defensor…

…Army chief of staff Gen. Generoso Senga reported that army Brig. Gen. Danilo Lim, head of the elite scout rangers, was among those arrested and marine Col. Ariel Querubin was being sought. Senga said the military will remain loyal to the constitution and the democratically elected government.

Read the entire report.

UPDATE: Pajamas Media reports that philippinecommentary will be live blogging breaking news in the Philippines.

See these post for background– first here and then here (both date from February 20).

UPDATE 2: Something is certainly up. A vetted Pajamas Media source (”Our Man On The Case!”) said at 9:20 PM CST:

“Life [in Manila] is pretty much normal for most citizens, there’s no trouble. But there should be dramatic but not necessarily troublesome developments.”

At 9:33 PM CST the source reported: “An ex-Cabinet secretary says a state of Emergency has been declared.” This is unverified and will be updated.

Reuters reported at 8:42 PM CST that President Arroyo was considering declaring a state of emergency.

The Manila Standard says any coup attempt will fail (which is very likely true).

Apparently a rally is planned in Manila, where former President Corazon Aquino will appear.

9:49 PM CST: Now this is interesting. Our source reports that the latest rumor from Manila is “the Makati business district demonstration will be attended by two former Philippine presidents, Aquino and Ramos.” That may not sound too politically dicey, but with the coup atmospherics the current government may not be pleased with the possible appearance of former presidents at a major rally. At 9:55 the source says it’s not a rumor, this report is on the local news (…but local news in the US is occasionally rumor…) Yes, our source has access to local tv reports, and obviously access to a computer.

Left-wing groups may try to take advantage of the political turmoil to stoke violence and “make media hay.” That’s one of the many risks in this volatile situation– radicals tossing molotovs to attract tv cameras and create further chaos.

UPDATE 4: 10:33 PM CST– check out the posts at philippinecommentary. The site takes a clear political position –it’s anti-Arroyo. I’m not in any “camp” — I am a fan of the Philippines and know it is a remarkable place.

That being said, philippinecommentary’s track record for reporting events has been pretty good.

On of its recent reports:

…Violent dispersal of the rally at the Edsa Shrine has begun. Police are using truncheons and water cannon. The crowd is fighting back with stones and bottles. (AM Radio 588). Vice Pres. Teofisto Guingona is giving a stirring speech at the Edsa Shrine. Negotiations are going on with Gen. Casuelo(?) and VP Guingona because the dispersal order is being enforced but the crowd is holding firm and won’t go. Heavy armor is arriving…”

My February 20 posts explain EDSA. This is clearly a “stay tuned” moment.

UPDATE 5: A cool voice writes at 6:14 AM CST February 24:

The Cory Aquino rally in Makati (which was not attended by Fidel Ramos, who is holding himself aloof) did not generate any large numbers. (I have collaterally confirmed this and the BBC, I think, also reports low numbers). However, it was not suppressed forcibly by President Arroyo. I spoke to a source close to the Cory Aquino camp and was told her influence has declined much of late. The same source close to Aquino reports that the Catholic Bishops are not very enthusiastic about supporting another People Power call at this time. There is also a sense that many people are tired of extra-constitutional attempts to change the President.

“Sapper” is a long time friend. He is a Vietnam vet (combat engineers). He also served in the US Army Reserves for over thirty years. He is a civil engineer, by trade.

The following is his analysis of the terror bomb attack on the Askariya Shrine in Samarra. Understand that his analysis is informed speculation, but speculation by a man who knows how to build buildings as well as destroy them.

Sapper sends:

I have been asked if I think this attack in Iraq was an “a quick in and out raid,” (a target of opportunity attack) or did the operation (placing the explosives) take some time to carry out?

Caveats for all who read this. Caveats abound. Here are the important ones. I have only seen to press photographs of the Askariya Shrine.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0223/p01s02-woiq.html

-&-

http://smh.com.au/news/world/shrine-bombing-sunnis-give-a-lesson-in-how-to-s
tart-a-civil-war/2006/02/23/1140670212254.html

-&-

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/02/23/iraq.main/index.html

I have been out of the active combat engineer business for a couple of years and am relying on my memory and a dogged ear copy of my Junior Woodchuck Manual (FM 5-34) which addresses only the simplest of battle field demolition operations.

The construction of the shrine (as determined by an excellent reference librarian) is as follows:

Construction material was “baked brick” covered with gold-plated masonry tiles. The shrine was first built in the 9th century and had major renovations in the 11th and 12 centuries, but seems to have little to no significant modifications since then. This would make the bricks a baked red clay with nominal dimensions of 10×35x35 cm (typical size from archaeological reports of similar area and time). Mortar (if any) is unknown, but is most likely alabaster based plaster (same sources). The domes at Najaf and Karbala are described as being of similar construction.

If so, the walls are (nominally) 2.5 to 3 meters thick near the base. All information (except the circumference) should be considered estimates based on inferences - none of the sources that were definitive were fully trustworthy (and often conflicted), and the trustworthy sources weren’t definitive (but helped indicate which definitives were probably closer to the mark).

I do not have access to an aerial photograph to better evaluate the blast pattern. So the following is my best guess (another caveat).

My best guess from the review of the photos and with some help from an OSHA Inspector with experience in Accident investigation/reconstruction is that the explosion took place about 1/2 up the dome. The bricks in this area may have been only one or two thick. Without a view of the interior of the Shrine there is a lot left to conjecture. The amount of explosive required at any one point to do the damage would not be that great about ten pounds as an off hand guess based upon a quick glance at Junior Woodchuck Manual (FM 5-34), the demolitions section. Placed around the circumference at say twenty separate points would add up to a total of 200 pounds of TNT. Using C4 or an equivalent would decrease this by a factor 1.34.

A question posed is, was this a quick in and out job or would it have taken some time to plant the charges. My guess is that it probably took some time to plant the charges. The charges would have to be taken into the building placed at a point some distance up in the structure of the dome itself. With only people power to move the stuff up there, place the charges and rig the ignition circuits I would tend to believe this was an operation covering three to five hours, not just a quick in and out raid.

Sapper’s analysis suggests the terrorists had access to the mosque. Only careful investigation will determine what kind of explosives were used and how they were emplaced.

The article in the Christian Science Monitor beneath the photo Sapper refers to is excellent.

UPDATE: See comments for Sapper’s additional thoughts. Also, powerline posts two translated reports from Iraq’s Arabic press on Iraqi attempts to quell sectarian violence.

UPDATE 2: After seeing another photo of the inside of the mosque, Sapper adds some other thoughts:

Please remember: we are working with press photos and media reports, and I am not on the scene. Please keep that in mind as you read the following. I certainly make no claim for great exactitude in putting this together. This is my best guess based on experience. Appropriate weasel words apply.

There is some indication that there was a crawl space between the tiles and the supporting masonry dome. That may have been where the charges were placed.

There is a point at which the amount of demo required no longer impacts the time to do the work. If you are placing 20 charges around the dome, once the weight of these charges get down to a weight easily carried by one person, then the determining factors are the travel time from the truck with the explosives up to the crawl space and back down again– and the number of people available.

If my SWAG is correct about 10 pounds TNT to do the damage, spaced out at twenty spots around the dome, say one guy could easily carry 60 pounds up the stairs and into the crawl space, round it down to 50 for ease of calculations. Once could guess ( another weasel words, yes, I use them promiscuously) a team of ten to carry the demo and maybe two more to rig the ignition circuits back to one spot. I’ll leave speculation as to the make up of the rest of the force to others. The above reasoning does indicate there is a possibility that it could have been carried out in a few hours. But these are guesses, just guesses.

Sapper commanded a Hurricane Mitch relief operation I served with in 1999. Our task force deployed to Guatemala. An earthquake struck the city where we were deployed (hurricane, earthquake– welcome to Central America). The operational commander suddenly became the chief structural analyst in the area. The Guatemaltecans had him inspect the local hospital and other key facilities. As he notes, first-hand inspection and careful investigation will be determinative.

News from the Jurassic, via the National Geographic. The animal lived 164 million years ago. The National Geographic website has (of course) an excellent picture of what critter probably looked like. Think duckbill platypus.

It’s named Castorocauda lutrasimilis (which the article says translates as “beaver-tailed and looks like a river otter”). The National Geographic writes:

A well-preserved fossil mammal discovered in northeastern China (map) has pushed the history of aquatic mammals back a hundred million years, a new study says.

It is the oldest swimming mammal ever found and the oldest known animal preserved with fur, the researchers say in their report, which will be published in tomorrow’s issue of the journal Science.

“The origin of fur predates the origin of modern mammals,” said study co-author Zhe-Xi Luo, curator of vertebrate paleontology at the Carnegie Museum of Natural History in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

“This discovery has pushed fur-bearing nearly 40 million years further into the past,” Luo said.

The fossil must be quite a specimen– fur and soft tissue are fossilzed as well as bones. The animal was around 17 inches long and weighed 1.75 pounds. It probably ate fish.

Another excerpt:

Hans-Dieter Sues is associate director for research and collections of the National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C. Sues was not involved in the study and considers the discovery significant.

“Castorocauda now shows that mammals returned to the water much earlier than anyone had previously thought,” he said.

“The unusual preservation of the fossil provides clear evidence of beaver- or platypus-like adaptations to a semiaquatic life in a Mesozoic animal,” he said. The Mesozoic era lasted from about 251 to 66 million years ago and includes the Triassic, Jurassic, and Cretaceous periods.

Call it Adl’s complaint– a letter from an Al Qaeda terrorist damning Bin Laden as a poor leader and strategist. Bin Laden comes off as aloof, arrogant and blind. (This column from 2004 noted Bin Laden’s elitism and “rich kid” legacy.) The letter dates from June 13, 2002.

The West Point center’s synopsis says Abd-al-Halim Adl “challenges the leadership of Osama Bin Laden and accuses him of being close-minded and oblivious to the great harm suffered by Al-Qa’ida in recent months.”

Indeed–by June 2002 Al Qaeda has had a tough six months. The fanatics have suffered terrible losses. Adl writes his friend Mukhtar:

STOP RUSHING INTO ACTION AND TAKE TIME OUT TO
CONSIDER ALL THE FATAL AND SUCCESSIVE DISASTERS THAT HAVE AFFLICTED
US DURING A PERIOD OF NO MORE THAN SIX MONTHS. THOSE OBSERVING OUR
AFFAIRS WONDER WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO US. PREVIOUSLY, THEIR ERRORS
WERE NOT DISCOVERED UNTIL SUCCESSFUL OPERATIONS HAD BEEN COMPLETED.
BUT TODAY WE ARE EXPERIENCING ONE SETBACK AFTER ANOTHER AND HAVE GONE
FROM MISFORTUNE TO DISASTER. DURING (TN: THE PAST) SIX MONTHS, IT
HAS BECOME APPARENT TO THE OBSERVER THAT THERE IS A NEW HAND THAT IS
MANAGING AFFAIRS AND THAT IS DRIVING FORCEFULLY; EVERY TIME IT
FALTERS, IT GETS UP AND RUSHES AGAIN, WITHOUT UNDERSTANDING OR
AWARENESS. IT RUSHES TO MOVE WITHOUT VISION, AND IT IS IN A HURRY TO
ACCOMPLISH ACTIONS THAT NOW REQUIRE PATIENCE BECAUSE OF THE SECURITY
ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT HE WHOLE WORLD. THIS HAND DOES NOT PAY
ATTENTION TO WHAT IS HAPPENING, AS IF WE WILL NOT BE SUMMONED T O
ACCOUNT BEFORE ALLAH FOR ALL THESE SOULS, THIS BLOOD AND THIS MONEY
(TN: THAT HAS BEEN EXPENDED)

That hand is Bin Laden. (I am not sure why this particular letter appeared as all capitals. The other ones I’ve copied did not.)

Another excerpt:

PERHAPS, BROTHER ABU MATTAR HAS WARNED YOU THAT HIS OPINION HAS
CHANGED A LOT SINCE HE GOT OUT OF HIS PREVIOUS SITUATION. HE HELD ME
RESPONSIBLE BY SAYING TO ME: FEAR ALLAH BECAUSE YOU ARE THE ONLY ONE
AMONG THE BRETHREN WHO IS NOW IN THE EXTERIOR AND THE WHOLE MATTER IS
ON YOUR SHOULDERS. I HAD THIS MATTER ON MY MIND, BUT I AVOIDED IT
BECAUSE THE TEACHER (TN: BIN-LADIN) CORRESPONDS DIRECTLY WITH YOU
(AND THAT, UNFORTUNATELY, IS HIS ABSOLUTE HABIT THAT HE WILL NOT
ABANDON. IF SOMEONE OPPOSES HIM, HE IMMEDIATELY PUTS FORWARD ANOTHER
PERSON TO RENDER AN OPINION IN HIS SUPPORT, CLINGING TO HIS OPINION
AND TOTALLY DISREGARDING THOSE AROUND HIM, SO THERE IS NO ADVICE NOR
NOTHING) . THE CONSEQUENCES THAT YOU SEE ARE NOTHING, BUT AN OUTCOME OF THIS
ONRUSH. VERY REGRETTABLY, HAD I TALKED BEFORE THE DISASTERS OCCURRED
-AND I DID TALK -I WOULD HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED A COVETOUS PERSON,
BUT NOW THAT THE MATTER HAS BECOME A REALITY, I HAVE ABSOLVED MY
CONSCIENCE. HE (TN: THE TEACHER) PUSHES YOU RELENTLESSLY AND WITHOUT
CONSIDERATION AS IF HE HAS NOT HEARD THE NEWS AND AS IF HE DOES NOT
COMPREHEND THE EVENTS. TO ABSOLVE MY CONSCIENCEB EFORE ALLAH, AND TO
ANNOUNCE MY INNOCENCE IN FRONT OF ALLAH, I SAY TODAY WE MUST
COMPLETELY HALT ALL EXTERNAL ACTIONS UNTIL WE SIT DOWN AND CONSIDER
THE DISASTER WE CAUSED.

Another slash at Bin Laden:

MY BELOVED BROTHER, STOP ALL FOREIGN ACTIONS, STOP SENDING PEOPLE TO
CAPTIVITY, STOP DEVISING NEWO PERATIONS, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER ORDERS
COME OR DO NOT COME FROM ABU-ABDALLA (TN: BIN-LADEN). OUR
ADHERENTS HAVE LOST CONFIDENCE IN US AND IN OUR ABILITY TO MANAGE THE
ACTION, AND THEY WONDER, WHAT HAS BEFALLEN US.

Abu Abdalla (also Abu Abdullah) refers to Bin Laden.

Losing Afghanistan shook at least one of Al Qaeda’s faithful. The loss of Afghanistan suggested Al Qaeda did not have the mandate of Allah. This is why the strategic offense — taking the war to Al Qaeda, waging war in what A Qaeda calls “Muslim heartlands” — is absolutely necessary.

UPDATE: This link leads to the other posts in this series. Just keep clicking.

On February 22 Glenn and Helen Reynolds featured Jim Dunnigan and me in another “Instapundit podcast.” In the course of the interview I could not remember the name of the peculiarly dangerous Salafist/Al Qaeda-ist faction that grew from the Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood in the late 1960s and early 1970s. In the podcast, Jim and I were asked about Europe’s integration problems vis a vis its Muslim communities. We discussed European cultural obstacles, the European “nation state” as glossing a traditional definition of “nation” (a tribe) and ethnicity issues.

However, Salafist and other radical jihadist organizations operating in Europe and throughout the world intentionally raise the barriers to Muslim integration. The aim isn’t solely “taking Europe.” The strategic aim includes using Europe as a base to take control of predominantly Muslim states in the Middle East.

The insidious group whose name I couldn’t recall when Glenn rolled the tape is TAKFIR WAL-HIJRA.

Takfir translates as “exodus” or :”excommunication.” A “hijra” is a flight to a place.

Takfir wal-Hirja was founded in 1971 by Shukri Mustafa, a follower of Muslim Brotherhood radical leader and Salafist “theoretician” Sayyad Qutb. Qutb was put to death by Egypt’s Nasser in 1966.

Bruce Livesey in an article he wrote entitled “The Salafist Movement” (NOTE: I do not have a link to this article, but PBS’s Frontline once had it on its Frontline page) sums the Takfir strategy quite well:

“Mustafa believed that most Arab societies were corrupt and decadent. He argued that true Islamists had to leave their countries –or go on a “hijra”—to gather their forces before returning home and ridding their country of corrupt leaders and “infidel” practice.”

Livesey also adds:

“A central tenet of Takfir ideology has alarming implications for police engaged in counterterrorism work, namely, that believers may devitate from strict Muslim practices in order to blend in and avoid detection while plotting attacks. Followers are allowed to shave their beards, drink alcohol, visit topless bars and commit crimes against Westerners—all under the cloak of subterfuge. They are the mothers and fathers of sleeping cells,” says Fandy. [NOTE: Fandy is Dr Mamoun Fandy, whom Livesey quoted extensively in the article]…”The hijra idea gets to the bottom of a lot of things. It gets at the question of: are Muslims in Europe, in Canada and America everywhere, are these people citizens or sojourners? Are they in a hijra or are the citizens of Islam? In my mind, from the research I have done and the experiences I have had, it seems to be that most Muslims think in the back of their heads they are sojourners, they are not citizens. And this is really where the black box opens up.”

Takfir and similar groups reinforce isolation, with the intent of gaining and maintaining political control. I made that point in the podcast. Takfir has melded with Al Qaeda, and did so some two decades ago.

Now, once again, how did US policy create these terrorists? Nasser was a Soviet ally.

The challenge of live shows: you don’t know what’s coming. The beauty of the Internet: I can provide the background post-podcast.

I used the Livesey article as background for a panel discussion I participated in last October, in Orlando. My quick search didn’t produce a link. If a reader finds a link, please include it in a comment or email.

UPDATE: Answers.com has information on Takfir. Answers says Takfir was founded in the 1960s. I’d go with Livesey’s 1971 date.

UPDATE 2: Yes–an advertisement. Don’t forget the milblog conference. And please consider hitting the site’s tipjar to support the conference, to include airline tickets, etc for the emcee– yours truly. The conference is all-volunteer and the volunteers are footing the personal expenses and some of the conference expenses. We’re tyring to get enough donations to help defray costs for some of the panelists. At the moment Andi is paying the communications and media relations out of her own pocket. The conference is set for April 22 in Washington, DC.