This post is the latest installment of our “Monday Reflections” feature, in which a different Just Security editor examines the big stories from the previous week or looks ahead to key developments on the horizon.
Testifying before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee last Tuesday, Secretary of State John Kerry raised the possibility of splitting Syria apart as a way toward peace. He said, “[at] some point in time, some day someone is going to have to sit down at a table and arrive at an understanding about what Syria is going to be. But it may be too late to keep it as a whole Syria if we wait much longer.” Later in the hearing, Kerry indicated that the US hasn’t given up on the idea of a unified Syria: “Russia, the US, and Iran and our allies all say that we want a united Syria.”
The testimony left the definite impression that Kerry had given thought to the division of Syria as one possible solution to the current turmoil in the country. That was certainly how some heard it: The Guardian reported, “John Kerry says partition of Syria could be part of ‘plan B’ if peace talks fail,” and Michael Weiss at The Daily Beast asked, “Does Obama Want to Carve Up Syria?” Bloomberg later reported that Syria had “condemned Kerry’s remarks on the risk of partition in Syria.”
This is not the first time that the world has flirted with partition as a way to solve an intractable war. The same proposal has circulated for years as a way to solve the crisis in Iraq, but it has been repeatedly rejected. And there have been various proposals over the years to reshape the Middle East by redrawing the borders, including by Ralph Peters, Robin Wright, and Joshua Landis.
There are, moreover, historical precedents for the sort of partition being discussed for Syria: In 1947, for instance, the former colonial India was partitioned into India and Pakistan. And in 1971, after a bloody civil war in Pakistan, the country was further partitioned to establish Bangladesh as an independent country. In the 1990s, the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia all disintegrated, producing tens of smaller sub-states. Yemen broke up and then reunited (and is presently in danger of splitting once again). Eritrea split from Ethiopia, also in the early 1990s. And most recent of all, in 2011, Sudan split into Sudan and South Sudan.
Several of these historical precedents offer cautionary tales — none more so than the Sudan/South Sudan split. Continue Reading »