The failed Israeli ex-PM, Ehud Barak, gives us the benefit of his deep thinking about Iran. It’s an Einsteinian metaphor about relative rates of the passage of time:
The clock for the Iranian regime’s downfall is ticking, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in a lecture at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy on Friday. However, “it’s clear to me that the clock toward the collapse of this regime works much slower than the clock which ticks toward Iran becoming a nuclear military power,” Barak said.
How does he know that? — we (or at least some of us) wonder. I can imagine that the Israelis think they know the timetable for the Iranian atomic bomb, but I don’t think anyone has the schedule for the regime’s final days. And anyway, this is a case where static analysis is totally inappropriate. Any scenario has to include the likelihood of new variables being introduced. There’s probably a big sabotage operation going on against the atomic project, and some day somebody in the so-called Western world might decide to help the Iranian opposition speed up the “downfall clock.”
With regard to the atomic clock, I am told that the Iranian regime intends to announce two more hitherto-secret enrichment sites in early April. One is near Mashad, over by the Afghan border. The other is in the mountains east of Tehran. In keeping with the regime’s constant use of deception and misdirection, you can be pretty sure that there are other secret sites as well.
Does this mean that the mullahs are close to putting a nuclear warhead on an accurate missile? Beats me. But while various “analysts” give us their theories about just when Bomb Day will arrive, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps continue to kill Americans, and nobody seems to care about that.
I made this point in last week’s debate with Flynt Leverett at the Atlantic Council in Washington, and to confirm my claim, neither Leverett, nor the moderator, the Washington Post’s David Ignatius, nor any of the sizeable audience, responded to it. This drives me crazy; it’s why I wrote Accomplice to Evil. We refuse to see our evil enemies for what they are, and we refuse to act in time to prevent massive catastrophe.
No doubt Barak knows this, and also knows that, unless things change (hard to imagine), Israel will eventually have to do something on its own. What’s harder to understand is why Israel is doing nothing to help the opposition, which is the only policy that holds out a chance of real success, and would avoid the terrible train wreck we can all see arriving in slow motion.
As for the other clock, the one ticking off the lifespan of the Islamic Republic, the mullahs continue their murderous and sadistic campaign against the citizens of Iran, and the citizens search for new ways to show their contempt. The regime relentlessly arrests dissidents and accuses them of actions that only a fanatical regime in crisis could concoct. For example, they went after Mohammed Maliki, 76 yrs old, the first chancellor of Tehran U after the Revolution, and arrested him during treatment for prostate cancer. Maliki said to his captors, “I was afraid you would let me die in my bed,” and has refused to “repent” or confess. He’s accused of being a Mohareb, one who fights against God. They execute such men in Iran nowadays for criticizing the regime. I honor them, and wish my leaders would do the same, instead of pretending to have a serious Iran policy.
PJM Home
Accomplice to Evil: Iran and the War Against the West
The Iranian Time Bomb: The Mullah Zealots’ Quest for Destruction
The War Against the Terror Masters: Why It Happened. Where We Are Now. How We’ll Win.
Tocqueville on American Character: Why Tocqueville’s Brilliant Exploraton of the American Spirit is as Vital and Important Today as it was Nearly Two Hundred Years Ago
Machiavelli on Modern Leadership: Why Machiavelli’s Iron Rules are as Timely and Important Today as Five Centuries Ago
Freedom Betrayed: How America led a Global Democratic Revolution, Won the Cold War and Walked Away
I believe they know and understand well the nature of the Iranian regime, they just don’t care. For a State Department official or a Washington Post reporter the problem is the US is interfering in the Middle East, and it’s perfectly understandable the Iranians would try to drive us out by any means necessary. However, they know they can’t come right out and say “Yes, the Iranians are killing American soldiers, but we don’t care because they aren’t the right kind of people anyway and the Iranians are justified in fighting American imperialism” so they just ignore the question.
“They are accomplices to evil. A great evil.”
That puts it as succinctly as anyone has. The current administration is an accomplice, enabler, and accessory to a great evil against millions of innocent people across a large region of the planet. How they can look themselves in the face in the mirror is beyond me but how average people in this country can look themselves in the mirror after supporting these politicians is even more amazing.
I predict that if Iran launches a nuke at Israel that day will be Irans final day.
This is a rich, rich posting. Dr. Ledeen goes on at length, and also gives us the benefit of a link to his recent podcast at the Atlantic Council. That link might be overlooked by some readers — I hope that those who read this comment will take the time to double back. It is well worth the listen. Thank you, Dr. Ledeen.
I predict Iran’s downfall will be the day they attempt to nuke Israel. I’m going to be sorry for the innocents.
Michael, if anyone wants to see a modern day Cassandra, they need not look any further than you. Why? Because the powers that be, which have accepted some attributes amongst Hitler’s crowd (for instance, there is life not worthy of life) cannot stand it that their actions are found wanting, when you shine the light of scrutiny on their actions.
This part of a sentence caught my eye, “…why Israel is doing nothing to help the opposition…”. Frankly, Jerusalem is labouring under the impression that it alone
has to be proven right. Now, perhaps, Israel
is aiding the Iranian opposition in a clandestine fashion. Perhaps. But, that is something I do not get: helping those who are
friendly to Israel will either get them on another hit list (just like Anwar Sadat), or damage their credibility amongst those they
are trying to lead.
For, Israel would have done the calculations
that a Nonie Darwish is best aided in a clandestine fashion, rather than openly, because of how rough the greater Mid East is.
Perhaps. But in the meantime, the accomplices to evil still hold perpetual enmity towards those who hold their base deeds up to the standard that does not change. Well, to blazes with them, and frankly they can only blame themselves those culturally stunted deformed souls, scalawags,
scoundrels, and other assorted ilk.
Strange, I was thinking about the last holocaust today…
http://www.bloggybayou.com/2010/03/on-evil.html
And once again, I don’t think the Iranian regime is going down anytime soon…Not without outside assistance to the disgruntled masses
You gotta admit Mr. Ledeen…I’ve been right about the course of the “Revolution” so far:
From June 2009:
http://www.bloggybayou.com/2009/06/ya-say-you-want-revolution.html
Cheers
ER White (www.bloggybayou.com)
I want to point out that I have actually heard a leftist academic claim that an Iranian bomb would be a good thing because it would be a counterbalance to the USA.
“Ladies and gentlemen, make no mistake: The left is facilitating islamization. Leftists, liberals, are cheering for every new shariah bank being created, for every new shariah mortgage, for every new islamic school, for every new shariah court. Leftists consider Islam as being equal to our own culture. Shariah law or democracy? Islam or freedom? It doesn’t really matter to them. But it does matter to us. The entire leftist elite is guilty of practising cultural relativism. Universities, churches, trade unions, the media, politicians. They are all betraying our hard-won liberties.
Why I ask myself, why have the Leftists and liberals stopped to fight for them? Once the Leftists stood on the barricades for women’s rights. But where are they today? Where are they in 2010? They are looking the other way. Because they are addicted to cultural relativism and dependent on the Muslim vote. They are dependent on mass-immigration”
From Geert Wilders Speech at the House of Lords
Are we waiting for it to happen before we act ??
We in Israel know two things for sure – we are on our own re defanging the Iranian Hitlerite regime, and we have NO choice but to pre-empt- at the time of our choosing.
The notion that the Iranian leadership does not understand their imminent demise, if they lob a nuke at Israel, is an incentive ! for them, not a deterrant. One cannot deter a regime which lives to die, even on a macro state level. Since our leftist leaders also understand this zero sum game calculus, they realize that NOT striking will be the end of our homeland-NO doubt about it.
The heretofore Samson Option, which may deter other Arab regimes, absolutley does NOT apply with Iran. Therefore, in a not so veiled way, even the leftist, appeasing Barak internalizes that at this moment in our history NOT striking is simply unthinkable.
By the way, the left in America is pure evil, no ifs, ands or buts.
This slow motion to Worldwar III, if not stopped” has similarities to the Hitler regime in Germany.
Then, nobody did anything to stop that evil proceeding, pretending everything was ‘fine’.
Sure Iran’s military doesn’t conquer countries like Hitler did, but the killing of american soldiers, and muslims, they deem ‘unfit’ is no different.
I guess the ‘deadcount clock’ in our daily news report by the MSM doesn’t have a battery anymore, because no longer are we informed how many soldiers are dying on our daily nightly news, or the NY times, Washington Post etc..
Their little messiah is in office now, and he can do no wrong. Evil Bush Cheney has long vanished. What me worry?
It appears to me that there will be no military action. China needs Iranian oil, the US needs China to buy US securities to finance our debt.
Pundits and officials alike have now or are in the process of convincing themselves that Iran having a nuke is livable. They have blanched at the repercussions have actually taking action.
They are now presenting the case that the Iranians would never actually use nuclear weapons. How could they? The reply would be devasting.
For all our sakes, I hope they are right. We will shortly have an answer for that.
One last thought. The pentagon commissioned a captain to ascertain the nature of Islam. I still say the root of the matter lies there.
Without knowing the conditions on the battlefield, commanders cannot make accurate command decisions. When the report was delivered, the pentagon ( Bush ) shelved it.
I worry Saudi oil has too much influence over our national security.
We have the resources. Get to it!!!
As Iran keeps ticking, I find myself wondering at the silence of Doctors Walt and Mearsheimer, who not so long ago assured us (in 2007’s “The Israel Lobby”)that “The best way to stop Iran from building nuclear weapons is to engage it diplomatically and attempt to normalize its relationship with the US.”
OK. So we elected Barack Obama. He disavowed any “special relationship” with Israel. He reached out to Iran. He apologized for our past misdeeds. He offered engagement and normalization.
The question, professors, is this. How is that working out?
#5. Yes, indeed. However, I think there will be fewer innocents lost if Israel blows up Mullah Central during Friday night prayers. Those present would be the true believers. With any luck, Achmedenijad will be able to collect his virgins that night, too.
maybe they intend to decapitate the regime at the same time they go for the nuke facilities.
go full in it is not just the nukes that are are threat to the world.
It is evident that the Persian people will not be able to kick out this terrible regime. And the only way to spare the Persian people an attack by Israel is for them to kick out the Islamic Republic.
What they replace it with does not have to be davka friendly to us in Israel. The main point is that this future regime should not view our destruction as its main goal.
A regime that views our destruction as its main goal that also has nuclear weapons is an existential threat to this country and must be destroyed. Put simply, it is us or them. Full stop.
In my opinion, the only solution is to use an EMP to cripple the Iranian weapons systems – or to nuke Teheran. In either event, any attack will spark a regional war that will change the face of the region entirely.
TOM: You know very little. Iran’s gov is not the Taliban, if it was I would agree. Have you been to Tehran? It’s a friggin metropolis on par with many European and Asian cities. Progress that has been made there over the past few decades is AMAZING! IRI is not suicidal and plans to stay around for a long time yet, IMO.
If anyone launches a pre-emptive nuclear strike, I can guarantee you it’s Israel, and don’t con yourself into thinking they will be immune from retaliation in kind by any of the nuclear powers.
If you want to be “sorry” for anyone if ought to be the Israeli/Palestinian population when that happens
17. Lance: “Iran’s gov is not the Taliban….”
Correct. They’re longstanding foes.
“If anyone launches a pre-emptive nuclear strike, I can guarantee you it’s Israel….”
And it would be sheer insanity. US policy, under both Republicans and Democrats, has wisely opposed even a non-nuclear strike by Israel.
Mr. Ledeen: We are indebted to you for your comments. Please continue.
Well said, Michael. If we stand aside while refusing to call out evil and instead try to “engage it” in some feckless diplomacy, we are indeed evil’s accomplice, as were the appeasing governments of Europe in the face of the Nazis in the late 1930s.
One question: If Israel were to help the Green opposition and it was discovered, wouldn’t that hurt the movement more than any aid could do it good? It seems to me this would be handing the mullahs a sharp tool with which to delegitimize the opposition.
Phineas: i have long since lost count of the dissidents imprisoned as “Israeli agents.” It is a daily refrain, like the accusations of American meddling. Both are false, there are not even contacts with the Greens, as I keep saying.
meanwhile, the regime is delegitimized, not the opposition. i don’t think any normal Iranian would be outraged at the thought that America and/or Israel is helping the dissidents; but they are quite upset at our fecklessness.
#18. “If anyone launches a pre-emptive nuclear strike, I can guarantee you it’s Israel….”
And it would be sheer insanity. US policy, under both Republicans and Democrats, has wisely opposed even a non-nuclear strike by Israel.
=========
‘Wisely opposed’ are just words. Since no one knows how many nukes Israel has, they wouldn’t risk getting hit, too. Additionally the US wouldn’t hit Israel, especially with Obambi as CIC.
I think allot of people harbor the belief that Iran must actually use its nukes in order to destroy Israel. Victor Davis Hanson has made a strong case that this might not be so: Israel’s Cuban Missile Crisis — All the Time. (http://www.victorhanson.com/articles/hanson060109.html)
“The net effect would be for half the world’s Jews to hear constantly two messages — there was no Holocaust, but there might well be one soon. It would be analogous to the American public reliving the threats of the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 — every day.
A recent poll revealed that a fourth of Israel’s population quite understandably might emigrate if Iran gets the bomb. And it seems likely that within a decade or two, a nuclear Iran could so demoralize the Israelis by such psychological intimidation that it could unravel Israel demographically without dropping a bomb.”
Mr. Ledeen.
Many people, including myself, may have reservations about your neo-conservative heritage. Having said that – over the past 15 years or so – I have found myself to be amazed at the accurate analysis you consistently put forth as it pertains to Iran and the Iranian politics.
You see, its all about connecting the dots. U.S./E.U. and other industrial states worry about their respective business ($$) interests as they relate to Iran.
They also – have to think about Israel – because of political and/or moral reasons.
No one at the upper levels of any government (U.S./E.U.) is talking about how to secure their respective business interests – secure the State of Israel, and at the same time securing human rights for the people of Iran.
This is not a zero sum game – its can and should be a win/win for everybody involved – but alas – you and I are in the minority – looking at the events unfolding from two very different angles – You the ever so neo-con – and I – a center-left dreamer.
Yet, we totally agree! Go figure!
ally bolour: what does “neo-conservative” mean? i have always supported democratic revolution. what is conservative, neo or otherwise, about that?
If we keep thinking that the radicals that have taken control of political power in America are in any way interested in defending democracy, we are helping the greatest plan of subversion ever carried on in the world.
Don’t think and don’t write about the radicals AS IF they could defend democracy, anywhere in the world. Their only plan is to make America weaker, by action and by omission, and in this way they want to open the way to a world revolution, to the end of capitalism.
They don’t care if, to attain their goals, they have to help (by omission) the mad mullahs or the devil in person.
We have to do with a bunch of ideological fanatics.
#12, this from you, “I worry Saudi oil has too much influence over our national security.
” will be the case. Why? Canada is being targetted by the willfully ignorant. As Tom Brokaw mentioned in http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV_041oYDjg Canada is the largest supplier of oil to the US.
But, when this is news in Canada: http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-22884-Canada-Politics-Examiner~y2010m3d9-American-lawmakers-look-to-pull-out-of-NAFTA the result
will be what you fear. Plus, Venezuela will
have more influence.
Wow someone outside Iran acutally cares about us. Thanks Mr. Ledeen. Why is the USA so scared of the mullahs? They wont even say anything about their human rights abuses saying they are scared to meddle.
I live in Iran, no one thinks USA will be meddling, just the regime.
Mr. Ledeen.
Neoconservatism is a political philosophy which supports using American economic and military power to bring liberalism, democracy, and human rights to other countries. Thats according to Wikipedia ( I know – not an accurate source).
I dont agree with using American military power – pre-emptively to reach this goal, as it was done in Iraq. Otherwise, using economic power to bring about such changes are fine.
I did not mean to use the term neo-con as an insult to you. If it appeared that way, I certainly apologize. Furthermore, I want to thank you for your relentless focus on the Iranian issue – even when it was not fashionable in DC. I hope the work that you and others have done through the years, will soon pave the way for a democratic Iran – which could serve as a shining beacon for the entire Middle East. (something that Iraq never could even under the best of circumstances). I hope that we can avoid another war. I want justice for the people of Iran who have suffered for 31 years under one of the most brutal regimes since the Nazi’s…. just…a little faster please…….
tks, much obliged.
out of topic!
“The U.S. State Department apologized on Tuesday for dismissive comments its spokesman made about Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi’s call for “jihad and armed struggle” against Switzerland.
In apologizing, he appeared to be trying to end a dispute that prompted the head of Libya’s state oil company to summon executives from U.S. energy companies Exxon Mobil, Conoco Phillips , Occidental, Hess and Marathon last week and warn them the dispute could hurt U.S. businesses in Libya.”
Michael, How long the United States will remains comply and bow to the terror masters??!
This mad stupid leader has oil only thanks to the western mind!!!
Thanks Michael, but I think surrender is NOT an option!!! They must submit to the USA Greatness, NOT the USA to them.
However, the USA have a vital interests in the region and should protect it at any cost.
I want justice for the people of Iran who have suffered for 31 years under one of the most brutal regimes since the Nazi’s…. just…a little faster please…….
Michael, I saw a headline in DEBKAfile today that US officials are immersed in hush-hush contacts with Iranian regime elements and that is causing extreme concern among the Persian Gulf states.
Please tell me this is another DEBKafile fantasy and has no basis in fact?
It was said here that Abdolmalek Rigi was given to Iran by the US as apart of a deal to free the American hosatges ( hikers )by mullahs. Today it was confirmed Mt Kian Tajbakhsh ( Iranian American ) was freed. I hope US administration will pay more to mullahs , while begging them, so that the hikers will be released as well. Dealing with Terrorist states is the best policy to solve the problems. Congrats !
Michael:just only great.
ally bolour: what does “neo-conservative” mean? i have always supported democratic revolution. what is conservative, neo or otherwise, about that?