New Years Eve predictions seem to be all the rage right now. Everybody wants to predict what Sarah Palin will do next, where the economy is headed, or how far President Obama’s approval rating will fall. However, most years are defined by the people who surprise us – especially in the internatonal arena. For instance, in December 2008, names like Mir Hussein Moussavi and Manuel Zelaya meant nothing to U.S. readers
So, for my New Years post, I decided to pick a few global newsmakers whose names we may learn for the first time in 2010. These aren’t the sure bets, like David Cameron’s near-certain election as Britain’s Prime Minister, but rather the people who could come from nowhere to change the world. Each has a big opportunity on his or her plate, but whether they boom or bust will depend almost entirely on how they chose to exploit their openings.
1. Shaul Mofaz - Israel – Number-Two Man in the Kadima Party (For Now)
Most of the people on this list made the cut because of the political movements they are building – Shaul Mofaz is on it because of the political movement he could kill. A former cabinet minister under Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert, Mofaz is now the number-two man under Tzipi Livni in the centrist Kadima Party. More importantly, he is the leader of Kadima’s right wing and was Livni’s rival in last year’s party leadership vote. With Prime Minister Netanyahu trying to split Kadima and lure defecting legislators into his Likud Party, Mofaz has launched an all-out attack on Livni and is demanding that Kadima hold a leadership election immediately. He’s also split with Livni over her decision not to bring Kadima into a unity govenrment with Netanyahu. If he fails in his bid to oust Livni, do not be surprised if he splits Kadima himself, founds his own party, and takes half of the Kadima caucus with him.
2. Nick Clegg - United Kingdom – Leader of the Liberal Democrats
2010 will finally be David Cameron’s year in the U.K. Gordon Brown is legally obligated to schedule elections, and Cameron’s Conservative Party is almost certain to seize power. However, there may be a more interesting subplot in the battle for second place. Recent polls have shown Brown’s Labour Party dropping so far that they are almost even with the third-place Liberal Democrats and their charismatic young leader, Nick Clegg. Clegg is widely seen as a more liberal version of David Cameron, and if Labour cannot pull out of it’s death spiral after the election (which I don’t expect them to), his Lib Dems could emerge as the dominant force on the British left.
3. Yoshimi Watanabe - Japan – Founder of “Your Party”
In 2009, the Tokyo air was thick with the smell of hope and change. Leftist Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama of the Democratic Party (DPJ) ousted ex-PM Taro Aso and the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) – a bureaucratic monster which had governed almost uninterrupted since the 1950s. However, buyer’s remorse is already taking hold as Hatoyama racks up record amounts of government spending. His popularity has taken a nose dive – aided buy a corruption scandal which broke over Christmas – and recent polls show that voters are fleeing both the Hatyama’s DPJ and the once-mighty LDP. almost half of the electorate is supporting neither party, with elections to the nation’s upper house looming in 2010. The man best positioned to fill the gap may be Yoshimi Watanabe, who broke from the LDP in 2009 to found “Your Party”. Watanabe is the probably biggest wild-card on this list, as his new party won only five out of 480 lower house seats in last year’s election and polls have yet to show him moving up. However. with a platform centered on firing 100,000 bureaucrats and reducing the number of seats in the legislature, Your Party could be in position to ride an anti-establishment rocket. Watanabe seems to have the right message at the right time, but the question is whether he can catch fire.
4. Keiko Fujimori - Peru – Likely Presidential Candidate
One would think that Peru got it’s fill of the Fujimori family in the 1990s, when dictator Alberto Fujimori suspended the nation’s democracy. However, it seems that time heals all wounds, and many Peruvians remember Fujimori as a man who brought stability and stamped out the communist “Shining Path” rebellion. Now, his 34 year-old daughter Keiko now seems poised to mount a major campaign in the 2011 presidential election. Of course, the election isn’t until April 2011 and she’s currently running second among the potential candidates – behind conservative Lima mayor Luis Castañeda - so her election is by no means guaranteed. However, simply by getting in the mix, spritely young Keiko Fujimori could restart talk about the authoritarian far-right in a part of the world which has been generally gravitating to the far-left.
5. Salva Kiir – Sudan – President of South Sudan and First Vice President of Sudan
Salva Kiir is a veteran of the South Sudanese fight against the oppressive Sudanese government. But as the head of the military wing of the larger Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), he was never meant to lead the political charge toward freedom. That job was supposed to belong to SPLM rebel leader John Garang, who became President of an autonomous South Sudanese government after a 2005 peace agreement. However,Garang died in a 2005 helicopter crash after only a few months in office, and the quiet, unintellectual Kiir inherited his titles. Now, the South stands ready to vote in a 2011 referendum on complete independence – but the terms of that referendum are still being worked out with the government of North Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. Should Bashir try to keep the South from leaving, it will fall to Kiir to ensure that his people do not fall back under the control of the dictator’s genocidal regime. He may lack Garang’s charisma – but he will have to find his own mojo should he find himself in confrontation with Bashir. If he can shepherd the process safely to conclusion, the soft-spoken soldier will find himself the unlikely father of an independent South Sudan.
Hmong
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Iran
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AfPak
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Kristofer Lorelli is the Senior Editor of Race42012 and can be contacted at lorville@rogers.com, on Facebook and Twitter/Kris_Lorelli
While gossip mavens love to write about or read about the sexual and other private peccadillos of presidents of the United States, there is another aspect of presidential private lives that is much more pertinent in consideration of executive performance in our political history. That is the question of the medical (including the psychological) condition of the chief executive/commander-in-chief of the national armed forces, and the historical occurrence of secrecy and cover-up when a president is seriously or grievously ill.
Most of the time, the secrets come to light only after the term, or after the death, of a president.
The first presidential medical crisis was not a secret, nor a cover-up, but a case of colossal misjudgment. On inauguration day, March 4, 1841, newly-elected President William Henry Harrison (nicknamed “Tippecanoe” after the famous battle he had won as a general) decided to deliver his very long inaugural address on a bitterly cold Washington, DC day without an overcoat. He subsequently caught pneumonia, and a month later, died. (One might say it was the antithesis of a cover-up.) In any event, the Harrison campaign slogan “Tippecanoe and Tyler, Too!” was unexpectedly fulfilled when John Tyler became the first vice president in U.S. history to succeed prematurely, albeit constitutionally, to the presidency.
Numerous secret medical crises have confronted U.S. presidents since, including a possible undiagnosed case of Marfan’s Disease for Abraham Lincoln, the severe alcoholism of Andrew Johnson, the cover-up of Grover Cleveland’s secret surgery for cancer of the jaw on a naval battleship, Woodrow Wilson’s incapacitating stroke which made his wife the de facto president for almost two years, the circumstances in the sudden and premature death of Warren Harding, cover-ups of medical conditions and surgeries of Dwight Eisenhower and Lyndon Johnson, and the complete suppression of the facts by John F. Kennedy when he took office with then-fatal Addison’s Disease that had also made him, in effect, a drug addict.
But the latest revelation of presidential medical cover-ups may be the most serious of all of in historical risks and consequences for the nation.
“FDR Deadly Secret” by Steven Lomazow, M.D. and Eric Fettman (Public Affairs, 2010) is an extraordinary medical detective story that will force some re-evaluation of the nation’s longest-serving president. Roosevelt was sworn in for this fourth term on January 20, 1945. Less than two months later, the generally beloved “war president” (age only 63) died of a cerebral hemorrhage in his retreat at Warm Springs, Georgia, and Vice President Harry Truman took his place. Roosevelt’s physicians, including his primary caregiver, Rear Admiral Ross McIntyre, cited hypertension as the cause of death. Although Roosevelt’s physical condition had dramatically deteriorated since 1943, McIntyre and Roosevelt himself had repeatedly reassured the public that his health was good.
In fact, as authors Lomazow and Fettman conclusively demonstrate in their book, the president was grievously ill from 1940 on, and almost certainly knew most of the extent of his condition, as did the physicians taking care of him. Roosevelt’s immediate cause of death was the cerebral hemorrhage, and he did have severe (“uncontrolled” his physician admitted in 1970) hypertension, but Roosevelt’s underlying conditions of metastatic skin cancer (melanoma) and congestive heart failure were kept from public view for at least five years.
(Technically, although Lomazow is a distinguished neurologist and Fettman a very credible historical journalist, their contentions are theoretical, and they say so, because all pertinent medical records were destroyed or suppressed. Nevertheless, the first-hand testimony of so many involved, and the brilliant medical detective work of the authors makes their scenario accurate, in my opinion, beyond a reasonable doubt.)
In fact, on the day before (in 1944) when he informed the Democratic National Committee that he would run for the unprecedented fourth term, the book’s authors point out that Roosevelt had been told unambiguously and forcefully by his doctors that he could not survive a new term. Records of this do exist.
The precedent for the cover-up of his desperate medical condition, of course, had been set at the outset of his presidency when Roosevelt, his entourage, and the entire national media participated in the total cover-up of his paralysis following a bout with poliomyelitis in 1923. Hard as it may seem to believe today, most of the nation was unaware that the president of the United States was crippled. My father, a general practitioner and lifelong admirer of Roosevelt, first noticed this in October, 1932 when (New York) Governor Roosevelt passed through his home city of Erie, Pennsylvania on a campaign stop. Having succeeded in the most amazing (and for the media, willing) medical cover up in presidential history to that point, Roosevelt no doubt felt that he could succeed in a much more serious cover-up a decade later.
The authors of “FDR’s Deadly Secret” are telling a medical story, and as admirers of Roosevelt the politician, but they cannot avoid the conclusion that the president’s fourth term bid was a fraud from its outset, and a terrible risk for a nation still at war. They also point out that, contrary to popular opinion, Roosevelt wanted to keep Vice President Henry Wallace (a far leftist and a mystic) on the ticket in 1944. Roosevelt only agreed to name Truman after he was informed that the Democratic convention would likely refuse to renominate Wallace, or at the least, it would split the Democratic Party. His choice of Truman, the evidence suggests, was not because Roosevelt foresaw Truman as the excellent president he became, but because Truman would be the most acceptable to the convention and likely to hold the party together.
The book suggests that Roosevelt was informed that he had a malignant melanoma inlate circa 1940. A large mole on his forehead had appeared in the 1920’a, but had
undergone acute changes circa 1939. Photographs in the book show the changing mole and its disappearance (by surgery) over the next two years. Although there was no autopsy of the president in 1945, and no records of a melanoma diagnosis survive, the book plausibly shows that this deadly skin cancer had probably spread to the president’s brain and stomach prior to the 1944 election.
Furthermore, the authors conclusively prove that Roosevelt had been diagnosed with never-publicly disclosed congestive heart disease in this same period, and that he had a series of undisclosed heart “events”, also prior to 1944. This book also reveals that the president spent much of his last year and a half in office sleeping up to 12-18 hours a day, and only occasionally fully engaged in his duties. His physicians, staff, colleagues and family all participated in a massive concealment of Roosevelt’s condition although only the president himself and three or four physicians caring for him knew the whole extent of his illnesses.
As is well-known, Roosevelt only met with Truman privately once after January 20, 1945, and that the vice president was mostly in the dark about many issues facing the nation at war after his nomination, including most notoriously, the existence of the top-secret Manhattan Project developing the first atomic bomb. A few months after taking office and learning about the secret bomb project, Truman had to make the momentous decision of whether to drop two atomic bombs on Japan.
In recent years, a number of biographies of Roosevelt and other histories of his era, most notably Doris Kearns Goodwin’s excellent “No Ordinary Time” (1994), have increasingly mentioned in passing Roosevelt’s medical “secrets” and a few of them have cited reports of a possible melanoma, noting the disappearance of the mole over FDR’s left eyebrow. Some of these books have also analyzed the impact of the heart disease on Roosevelt’s executive performance, particularly at Yalta. Lomazow and Fettman’s book, however, is the first to concentrate on the medical facts, and to trace the evidence to a “beyond a reasonable doubt” conclusion of the skin cancer metastasis as both the principle cause of FDR’s dramatic physical decline and death. That new material, plus the exhaustive demonstration of a
massive cover up that has continued to the present day, is what makes this book so valuable.
By today’s standards, all of this cover-up is unthinkable, and with the frequent appearances of a president live and on camera, close to impossible. In 1945, my father who, as I previously noted, had met Roosevelt briefly in 1932, had become commandant of the base army hospital (Arlington Hall) at General Marshall’s headquarters in Virginia. Although he treated Marshall and his wife on occasion, my father did not treat the president, nor did he see him up close in person. But he did see him in newsreels, and he remarked then to my mother and later to me that he knew Roosevelt was very ill. And so did intuitively virtually all who met with him from 1943-44 on, especially those who had known Roosevelt before the war. Nevertheless, Roosevelt’s own insistence, and that of his personal physicians, convinced most to accept that his ghastly appearance was simply the result of fatigue and the stresses of the war and his duties as president.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt was a major president in American history. He developed an unprecedented bond with a majority of voters while in office as a result of his efforts during the Depression of the 1930’s. He skillfully guided the nation into its role as the defender of democracy and Western civilization before and after December 7, 1941. A case can be made that he was the indispensable man to be president for a third term in 1941 when the rest of the world was at war. In late, 1944, however, with the war clearly coming to an end, he was no longer indispensable, and his inability function daily as president put the nation and our war effort at huge risk. His performance at the Yalta Conference in 1944 has been virtually universally criticized. The failure of this Conference, many contend, prolonged the ensuing Cold War (which ended finally in 1991). The current constitutional limit of two terms was instituted following FDR’s terms.
As the case of President Franklin Roosevelt and this book show, anyone in the most powerful executive position in the free world too long is likely to lose his or her good judgment.
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-Please visit Mr. Casselman’s personal site, the Prairie Editor Blog.
Rasmussen Survey on Attempted Terrorist Attack
Should the attempt to blow up the airliner be investigated by military authorities as a terrorist act or by civilian authorities as a criminal act?
- By the military as a terrorist act 71%
- By civilian authorities as a criminal act 22%
Should waterboarding and other aggressive interrogation techniques be used to gain information from the suspected bomber?
- Yes 58%
- No 30%
How do you rate the U.S. government’s response to the attempted airline bombing?
- Excellent 5%
- Good 29%
- Fair 27%
- Poor 35%
Some people say that there is a natural tension between protecting individual rights and national security. In the United States today, does our legal system worry too much about protecting individual rights, too much about protecting national security, or is the balance about right?
- Legal system worries too much about protecting individual rights 43%
- Legal system worries too much about protecting national security 17%
- Balance is about right 28%
In light of the recent attempt to blow up an airliner as it was landing in Detroit, should the United States take full control of security measures at foreign airports so that anyone flying to the U.S. would have to go through U.S. security?
- Yes 54%
- No 29%
Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted December 30. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.
Inside the numbers:
Men and younger voters are more strongly supportive of the aggressive interrogation techniques than women and those who are older. Republicans and voters not affiliated with either major party favor their use more than Democrats.
-The Race42012 staff was asked to take look ahead and share their predictions for the coming new year. Our readers are encouraged to post their own predictions in the comments.
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Adam Brickley
Sarah Palin continues her recovery and cements herself as de-facto leader of the GOP after vigorously campaigning through 2010, after which she begins work on a second and more issue-oriented book. Mike Huckabee decides that he rather likes being a media figure and veers away from presidential politics – he pursues either a nightly show on Fox News or a daily radio program. Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty both lay low in “traditional pre-presidential mode” – Romney loses his status as the “establishment candidate” as party bigwigs bleed into the Pawlenty camp. Rick Santorum begins to look more serious as he moves to assert leadership of the hard-core SoCons after Huckabee’s exit.
The Republicans run the table in competitive Senatorial elections but fall short of retaking the chamber. John Boehner becomes Speker of the House after the Republicans eke out a razor-thin majority. This victory comes in spite of the massive intra-party spat caused by Rep. Parker Griffith’s primary loss to tea-party candidate Les Phillip. Phillip joins Rep. Martha Roby (AL), Rep. Ryan Frazier (CO), Rep. Allen West (FL), and Sen. Michael Williams (TX) in an impressive crop of newly elected African-American Republicans – who announce in December that they play to form a “Congressional Equality Caucus” to counterbalance the Congressional Black Caucus. The Democratic Party is also frustrated from the left as liberal independent candidates Oscar Goodman and Tim Cahill win governorships in Nevada and Massachusetts.
David Cameron’s Conservatives storm to power in he UK as Labour falls into a near-tie with the third-place Liberal Democrats. Gordon Brown resigns as Labour Party leader, but the implosion continues under new leader Ed Miliband. By the end of the year, Labour is seen as a spent force, while Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats cement their status as Britains dominant left-wing party. In Israel, the Kadima Party ceases to exist as members defect back to the conservative Likud or join a breakaway party founded by Shaul Mofaz. Japan’s new leftist government is embarrassed in elections to the nation’s upper house, while the anti-establishment, anti-bureaucracy “Your Party” scores big gains. Guantanamo Bay is finally closed by the end of the year – but remains an issue as former detainees reintegrate into al-Qaeda.
The 1980s have officially returned as electropop divas Lady Gaga, Little Boots, and La Roux dominate the charts. Gaga’s dominance is challenged mid-year as British teen sensation Pixie Lott crosses the Atlantic and cements herself as a global celebrity. Simon Cowell leaves American Idol to launch the American Version of “The X Factor” – which flops.
Adam Graham
Top Line: U.S. Senate: +6R, U.S. House +32R, Governors; +12R.
Governor Predictions: Republicans take over the Governor’s Mansions in Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. Democrats pick up the Governor’s Mansions in California, Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Vermont. Republicans deserve to lose in South Carolina and Nevada. The SC GOP will be saved by an anti-Democrat tide and Harry Reid will be a millstone around the Democratic’s Party’s neck in Nevada.
Senate Predictions: Democratic Incumbents defeated–Blanche Lincoln, Michael Bennet, Chris Dodd, and Harry Reid; Democratic Open Seats going Republican–Illinois, Delaware. Marco Rubio beats Charlie Crist in Florida. Jason Chaffetz defeats Bob Bennett in a Republican Primary for Utah’s Senate Seat.
House Predictions: In a three way race, Parker Griffith will finish first in the Republican Primary in June, but lose the primary runoff to Les Phillip in July.
Conditional predictions: If Wyoming Governor Dave Frudenthal (D-Wyo.) doesn’t run for re-election, this will be another Republican pick-up. If North Dakota Governor John Hoeven runs for the Senate, this will be another pick-up. However, Hoeven won’t run.
2012: By the end of 2010, Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty will have formed exploratory committees to run for President. Huckabee will follow soon thereafter but will stretch his talk show gig into early 2011 to maximize the platform and limit the personal economic damage. Sarah Palin will continue to demur until early-to-mid 2011.
Obamacare: Obamacare will collapse after the Christmas recess. Too much has been made of the Clyburn statement. What Clyburn’s statement signals is the willingness of the House leadership to accept a public option-free bill, not that of House backbenchers. The Senate plan as written will attract Republican opposition, opposition from pro-life Dems, opposition from liberal Dems like Louise Slaughter, and opposition from Blue Dogs who may like the Senate plan but know they’re dead dogs if they support him. All of which is to say that getting two chambers dominated by Democrats to agree on seperate health care bills was easy. Getting a coherent bill is what’s hard.
The Economy: Economic growth will be stagnant throughout the year with an annual growth rate of 1.3%. Unemployment will be 11.2% by the end of 2010.
Sports: Cincinnati Bengals win the Super Bowl over the Minnesota Vikings 24-9. Brett Favre announces his retirement after the game. After a Summer of Speculation, Favre announces he’s coming out of retirement to play for the Seahawks. Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Title. Dodgers win the World Series. Tiger Wood skips the Masters but returns to Golf to defend his title at the Memorial Tournament. He looks rusty and loses the tournament, but two weeks later wins the U.S. Open.
Alex Knepper
Scott Brown loses, Mike Castle wins, Richard Burr wins, David Vitter wins, Pat Toomey barely wins, Marco Rubio wins, Rick Perry wins handily, Meg Whitman wins, Carly Fiorina loses but not by much, Kelly Ayotte wins, Robin Carnahan wins, Mark Kirk wins but not by much, Sue Lowden wins, Rob Simmons wins but not by much, Rand Paul wins, Jane Norton wins, Blanche Lincoln loses. Kirsten Gillibrand holds on because nobody bothers to challenge her. Democrats +1, Republicans + 7, Swing of Republicans + 6, Senate going into 2011: 54 D 46 R. In other words: GOP makes big gains in the House, but not nearly enough to take it back. Best-case scenario: Pataki runs and wins, Blunt wins, Fiorina ekes out a win. 51 D 49 R. The odds of us gaining back the Senate are about 5%.
JD Hayworth does not run for John McCain’s seat, George Pataki does not run for Kirsten Gillibrand’s seat; Sarah Palin refuses to endorse Mark Kirk in the primary, but endorses him in the general.
A watered-down version of health care reform passes and reaches Obama’s desk in January, which he promptly signs and announces as a sweeping victory for “everyday Americans” against big insurance companies. Expect to hear Ted Kennedy’s name invoked.
The big 2010 issues, barring unforeseen circumstances: Jobs, the economy, the debt, the deficit. Because of this, the Democrats announce a new plan to reduce the deficit, “modernize our economy,” create new “green jobs,” give “all Americans equal access,” and things like that. They use center-right rhetoric for a left-wing plan — like they always do when they want to be popular with voters.
Staples on the 2010 trail: Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Tim Pawlenty. Sarah Palin will be more selective.
Mitt Romney’s book sells only moderately well; comparisons to Sarah Palin will be made by prognosticators. The conventional wisdom will be that Romney doesn’t excite the base like Palin does and that 2012 will be between them: the establishment’s pick who is only moderately exciting, and the wildcard who excites the base.
Sarah Palin endorses an anti-establishment candidate in hopes of using her power to sway an election. This will be a test of her influence. Marco Rubio will also gain her endorsement in the spring of 2010. Don’t rule out an endorsement of Peter Schiff in Connecticut, either.
Mitt Romney announces his presidential bid in December 2010, along with Gary Johnson and Tim Pawlenty. Sarah Palin waits until the spring or summer of 2011.
Alex and flamboyant female icons: Attends a Lady Gaga concert in the winter, purchases the new Britney Spears album in the spring, and gets excited about a new Ann Coulter book in the summer.
Rightosphere is a fantastic, sweeping success, turning the blog world on its head and turning Kavon W. Nikrad into a household name.
Aron Goldman
January/February: Obama orders air strikes on Al Qaeda training camps in Yemen. Peyton Manning, for the 4th time in his career, is named the NFL’s MVP; leads Colts to Super Bowl victory over Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. Senate approves sanctions on Iran. 4th Quarter GDP numbers come in at 4.2% growth; part of short-lived spurt in W-shaped recovery. Obama signs health care reform bill into law.
March/April: Rick Perry defeats Kay Bailey Hutchison in GOP primary. Ruth Bader Ginsburg and John Paul Stevens announce their retirement. Obama selects Leah Sears Ward and Diane Wood to replace them on the Supreme Court. The St. Louis Rams select Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh with the first pick in the NFL draft.
May/June: Specter shellacs Sestak, securing Democratic nomination for Senate seat. Carmelo Anthony and the Denver Nuggets defeat LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in six games in the NBA Finals. LeBron announces after the series that he’s joining the Brooklyn-bound Nets.
July/August: Charlie Crist edges out Marco Rubio in GOP primary. Obama pre-empts Netanyahu; drops bunker-busters on Iranian nuclear sites at Bushehr, Natanz and Qom.
September/October: In Subway Series, Yankees repeat; sweep Mets. Unemployment falls under 9 percent; too little/too late for Dems in Congress.
November/December: Republicans gain 35 House seats, pick up 6 spots in the Senate (Castle, Kirk, Lowden, Norton, Baker, Simmons). Californians legalize marijuana. With signs of double-dip recession upon us, and sporting an anemic 39 percent job approval rating, Obama announces he won’t allow Bush tax cuts to expire in January 2011.
Bob Hovic
The Republicans will net 42 seats, sufficient for a narrow 220-215 majority.
I’m not sure if Hayworth will challenge McCain or not, but if he does, I’ll predict that McCain survives the challenge (possibly with help from Huckabee and maybe Palin making campaign appearances for him).
Marco Rubio easily defeats Charlie Crist and wins the general in a walk.
Republicans pick up 10 seats, winning Connecticut, New York, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Arkansas, North Dakota, Colorado, and Nevada. The shocker of the night is Carly Fiorina’s narrow win over Barbara Boxer in California (okay, maybe this one is wishful thinking, but I won’t rule it out). The Republicans lose none of their seats.
The remainder of the year is consumed by the two parties trying to outbid each other for Joe Lieberman’s vote.
After losing to Rick Perry, Kay Bailey Hutchison changes her mind about retiring from the Senate.
Republicans pick up a net of two seats, taking Tennessee, Arkansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Kansas, and Wyoming. The Democrats, however, offset this by taking Connecticut, Vermont, Minnesota, Arizona, and Hawaii.
Dan Hynes will defeat Pat Quinn in the primary and (in a squeaker) Jim Ryan in the general to hold Illinois for the Democrats in the biggest disappointment of the election cycle for Republicans.
Meg Whitman will hold California for the Republicans, but by election night it won’t be seen as a surprise, since support for Moonbeam Brown had begun to fade in mid-summer as the state slid deeper into financial crisis.
The Republicans probably would lose Rhode Island, but Lincoln Chafee does his old party an inadvertent favor by making an ego run as an independent, letting the GOP hold on.
Obama will hit a low of 37% approval in mid-March, but stabilize thereafter. He’ll be at about 40% in the last poll before election day, after which he takes a hit among Democrats because of the election debacle.
Talk of a Hillary challenge ensues, and the Kos/MyDD types begin urging a run by Howard Dean. Dean does nothing to quiet the talk.
By late in the year, it will be obvious that Mitch Daniels is running for president, while Gingrich and Giuliani will have withdrawn (perhaps formally, but at least de facto).
That leaves five serious candidates, who will be ranked as follows by most observers at year-end: Romney, Huckabee, Palin, Pawlenty, Daniels – though there will still not be enough separation among the top three to declare a true front-runner.
Rick Santorum will be claiming to be a serious candidate.
There will be much discussion after the election about the ‘rebirth’ of the Republicans in the northeast quadrant of the country, with important wins in Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New York, and Connecticut, added to the 2009 win in New Jersey.
Since most of these will be won by moderates, there will be a slight shift in the ideological balance of power in the party, as well as the geographic blance.
The USA will make it to the quarterfinals in the World Cup. Brazil will win it all, defeating Spain easily in the final.
Newsweek will announce suspension of publication in late summer.
DaveG
A final health care bill will be approved by both houses of Congress in January. The end result of ObamaCare will pretty much be the Senate bill, with a few tweaks here and there (e.g., slightly more generous subsidies, more taxes on the wealthy).
Democrats will nix plans for immigration reform in 2010 and will instead focus on deficit reduction, probably though tax hikes.
President Obama will replace both Justice Stevens and Justice Ginsberg.
Mitt Romney, after enjoying crown prince status for most of 2009, will see his potential 2012 candidacy begin to fade due to the aftermath of the health care debate, which has pushed the national political center of gravity on health care rightward and which transformed Romney’s once centrist position on health care into a center-left position given the Democrats’ passage of a bill that essentially amounts to a national version of RomneyCare. With Romney’s signature piece of economic legislation now considered left of center, and with Romney continuing to enjoy suspicion among red-state cultural conservatives, Mitt will begin to look like the candidate of the Republican Left, with his nomination seeming less and less likely.
Tim Pawlenty will continue to seem more and more like Lamar ‘96: another regular guy Republican whose presidential campaign goes nowhere fast.
Mike Huckabee will poll just as well as he did throughout most of 2009, but will continue to seem a bit too comfy doing the talk show thing to be taken seriously for another presidential run.
Mitch Daniels will continue to deny any interest in the presidency. Rudy Giuliani will launch an exploratory committee after the midterms.
Tea Partiers will divide between dueling revolutionary candidates in Sarah Palin and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson. The latter will appeal to many of the same groups that Ron Paul did, only on a broader scale, including social libertines and America First types.
There will be whispers of a McCain 2012 candidacy based on McCain’s disgust with Obama’s fiscal liberalism and foreign policy cluelessness, and the Arizonan’s belief that the re-emergence of fiscal calamity as a national issue bodes well for a mavericky McCain/Lieberman fiscally conservative, socially disinterested, hawkish third party ticket. This becomes doubly true if McCain’s 2010 re-election bid starts to become less than a sure thing, especially given Lieberman’s almost certain electoral travails in just two more years.
Sarah Palin will continue her ascent among Republican primary voters due to her status as a symbol of rebellion against President Obama and the present political establishment and economic and cultural elites. Pundits will begin to wonder whether anti-Palin Republicans will be able to coalesce around a single alternative to the Alaskan, or whether the rest of the party will fracture a dozen different ways, leaving Palin with a small but determined plurality in 2012.
Republicans will win 7-10 Senate seats in November, along with 30-40 House seats. The result in each house will most likely be a bare Democratic majority, though a 218-seat GOP House is possible, as is a 51-seat Senate thanks to a Joe Lieberman party switch.
Dustin Siggins
New Orleans Saints win the Super Bowl.
Frank Mir wins the Ultimate Fighting Championship heavyweight title.
Republicans win 22 seats in the House and five seats in the Senate.
President Obama hits the lowest approval ratings ever at this point in a presidency.
Republicans get 2/3 of the races in New Hampshire- definitely the Shea-Porter seat, and one of the other two.
Republicans split between the Tea Party/Erick Erickson/Club for Growth and strategist/Gingrich/Beltway portions of the party, and lose at least 10 seats Republicans should have won nationwide as a direct result.
Bart Stupak is the key to healthcare reform passage- the pro-life coalition in the House.
Sarah Palin drops out of the running for the Republican nomination.
Third-party candidates and Ron Paul-style Republicans make huge gains in influence and power.
Kavon W. Nikrad
Republicans gain 6 seats in the Senate and fall just short of retaking the House in November. The GOP’s significant gains nationwide are mitigated somewhat by going 0 for 6 in the CA, NY, and IL Governor/Senate races.
If he remains in the contest, Charlie Crist will lose by a solid margin to Marco Rubio. Chuck Devore will defeat Carly Fiorina in the California Republican senate primary. Jason Chaffetz will defeat Bob Bennett in the Republican Primary for Utah’s Senate Seat. Rick Perry soundly defeats Kay Bailey Huchison in the Texas Republican Governor Primary.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will serve out her full-term.
Continued civil unrest in Iran means no Israeli airstrikes this year.
Mike Huckabee announces that he will not run for president sometime after the Midterms.
The rumblings of a Mitch Daniels presidential run grow louder as the year goes on.
Kristofer Lorelli
Dem’s keep control of house (220-215) and Senate (49-49-2), or (50-48-2) if Pataki runs, with Biden as tie-breaking vote.) The GOP gains the following Senate seats; NV, AR, CA, CT, CO, DE, IL, and PA. With Harry Reid’s is defeat, Dick Durbin is sworn in as Majority Leader, and Pelosi retains control by surviving a challenge to her leadership.
Perry defeats Hutchison in TX primary.
Crist defeats Rubio in a dirty campaign. Some high profile republican leaders refuse endorsements to help avoid an intra-party civil war.
Vermont elects its first African American governor (a Republican).
New Mexico elects its first Hispanic-female governor (a Republican).
The new national health care death panels will outlaw male circumcisions, based on a constitutional opinion written by Cass Sunstein; that the foreskin of all U.S. citizens are protected under the Bill of Rights.
Record foreclosure rates will hit the United States.
President Obama will not produce his original birth certificate.
Two Supreme Court Justices retire and are replaced by liberal-activist Judges.
The Rightosphere becomes a little more competitive with the cyberspace-dominating left-roots.
Aron Goldman will not warm up to the idea of President Sarah Palin.
Newsweek declares bankruptcy….assets are purchased by the New York Times.
Unemployment rate finishes year at 9.7%.
A second stimulus package is signed by President Obama.
High-end retailers sell-off assets as a last-ditch effort to avoid bankruptcy.
One member of Race42012 gets married (hopefully not me!!!), another announces an impending birth (definitely not me!!!).
Huntsman resigns as Ambassador to China, begins to build a campaign machine for 2012.
It is discovered that Saudi Arabia has escalated a secret nuclear arms program, in defiance of the Obama administrations failure to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment program.
Robert Mugabe passes away at age 86. Kim Jong-Il passes away at age 69.
British tabloids uncover that COL. Muammar al-Gaddafi son, Saif al-Islam, had been secretly married to Israeli actress, Orly Weinerma.
Civil war breaks out in Yemen, along the similar political lines of the 1994 war. The United States, Arab nations and Al-Qaeda fight a proxy war in this conflict.
Conservatives re-gain control of Chile’s Presidency, after the run-off vote of January 2010.
Iceland declares bankruptcy.
President Obama imposes dozens of trade restrictions on imported goods from China.
Several 2nd and 3rd world nations begin to match their currency to the Yuan, instead of the USD. Industrial nations dump U.S. dollar and purchase gold.
Facebook reaches 400 million users, $400 million in revenue, and Mark Zuckerberg is named Time person of the year.
Casualty rates in Afghanistan (May-September) reach record levels.
Colts will the Super Bowl. Phillies win the World Series. The Black Hawks win the Stanley Cup. The Orlando Magic win the NBA Championship. Canada/US finish 1-2 at Winter Olympic games. Tiger returns to golf in July. Nets are sold to Russian Billionaire, do not move to Brooklyn, but instead move into the Prudential Center. Brett Favre is injured, sells condo in downtown St. Paul.
Richard Murray
On February 12, 2010, the House and Senate will pass some version of healthcare reform. There will be much fanfare over passage, but nobody will like the final bill.
Keeping true to form, the New Orleans Saints will make it all the way to the Super Bowl, only to lose in a shootout to Indanapolis. Final score: 42-40.
Early in the summer, further cracks will appear in the strategies being employed in Iraq and Afghanistan. Tough talk will ensue, but no concrete actions to correct the problems.
Despite a late season threat, the Atlanta Braves will once again fail to make the baseball playoffs. The New York Yankees will make the playoffs, but lose before making it to the World Series.
Shortly before the elections, the situations in both Iraq and Afghanistan deteriorate significantly, and Osama Bin Laden publishes another video of himself.
Leading into the elections, with Pres Obama’s approval ratings hovering in the low to mid 40’s and unemployment at 12%, predictions will be that Democrats narrowly hold the House. Election night reality will be that, with defections and election losses, Democrats drop to 205 seats. Republicans swell to 220 seats, but the news of the night will be that third parties take 10 seats. Consequently, third parties began to seem more of a viable option for the future.
After the elections, sensing a weakened President, North Korea will announce that the US is not negotiating in full faith, and will openly continue nuclear arms production.
Despite promises of cooperation, China and Russia will continue to obstruct any and all efforts by the US to calm international tensions.
Turmoil in Iran will grow in intensity, with threats of revolution against the Mullahs. No international aid will be forthcoming, and the uprising will be ruthlessly fought against.
Sec Clinton will resign after the elections, fueling speculations of a White House bid. No indications will be made as to whether she wants to run or not.
Tommy Boy
Mike Huckabee will formally announce that he is not running for President on “Huckabee.”
Michele Bachmann will win re-election by a double-digit margin.
Mitt Romney’s book, No Apology, will not break down the top 5 of the NY Times best-seller list for non-fiction hardcover books (and if it does, the NY Times will place the “dagger” symbol next to it).
GOP gains 5 seats in the Senate (we hold all of our seats right now while winning in CO, CT, PA, NV, and AR). Republicans win back the House (including Hoffman in NY-23). Parker Griffith will win re-election as a Republican.
Trey Greyson and Marco Rubio win their respective primary contests by double-digit margins. Meg Whitman loses in the Republican primary. John McCain defeats J.D. Hayworth by a margin under 10%.
Barack Obama will be a net negative in terms of approval at one point in all of the following pollsters (Gallup daily tracking, Rasmussen, USA Today/Gallup, Washington Post/ABC News, NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac). His favorability rating, for those who buy the distinction, will fall to an average of 48% while being propped up by the weekly joke, Daily Kos/Research 2K. His approval rating among miltiary families in the Quinnipiac poll fall to a low of 33/58 approval/disapproval. The narrative that “Michelle Obama’s favorables are so much lower than Laura Bush’s” will commence.
Sarah Palin will win the “most admired woman” Gallup poll in 2010.
LeBron James will win the MVP award but Kobe Bryant will repeat as NBA Finals MVP. Either the Dallas Cowboys or Arizona Cardinals will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Race42012 will score an interview with Sarah Palin.
A scientific poll will show Sarah Palin tied or leading Barack Obama in a hypothetical 2012 contest.
Scott Rasmussen will nail the 2010 elections but is not able to defeat the narrative that he changes his results at the very end. The NY Times/CBS News poll will fail miserably at anything it does.
Saying that everyone will have equal access to health care if the government takes care of it is like saying that everyone has equal access to education under our current system.
In the run-up to the election, there was a runaway bestseller penned by the champion of disaffected conservatives angry at a system that they felt excluded by. This challenger, brought to prominence by Arizona Republicans, has the support of the grassroots against the establishment’s choice of a Northeastern governor with a centrist track record and will go on to face a liberal president intent on seeing the government’s role in the economy expanded. The election I’m speaking of is 1964.
Rush’s visit to the hospital has revealed the beast in progressives. They want quality health care for all — unless they disagree with the patient’s political beliefs. They want compassion for drug addicts — unless they’re conservative talk-show hosts who stumbled into the problem through a medical injury. They care about sensitivity and bridging the gaps between ideas — unless it’s when dealing with a conservative.
What does it say about Ben Nelson’s view of his constituents that he thought that they would appreciate getting a bribe?
Argentina just legalized gay marriage. It’s astonishing that New York lags behind South Africa and Argentina when it comes to the legal treatment of homosexuality.
It’s a testament to how someone can repair her image that Hillary Clinton is one of the most-loved figures in the United States right now. Two years ago, she was thought of as the queen of polarization. America has now reached a consensus on her, and they like what they see. It goes to show that nothing is etched in stone: Sarah Palin can indeed turn her image around. But she’ll never get higher than 51% with the track she’s currently taking.
Could there possibly be a more Romneyesque title than “No Apology: The Case for America’s Greatness”?
Ask your non-politically engaged friends if they know who Bobby Jindal is, and how they thought his response to Obama’s State of the Union address went. They’ll likely look at you blankly. In other words: we often overstate insignificant events because we cannot look outside of the bubble that we live in. Jindal is the 2012 VP frontrunner. Romney would pick him, as would Huckabee. Sarah Palin would more likely choose Rudy Giuliani.
What was Kay Bailey Hutchison thinking? While I support her bid, I do not believe that she has much of a chance of winning in this environment. Why does she think that the base wants to take someone from Washington and put her in the governor’s mansion?
Who are the modern-day philosophers and intellectuals of the right? Beyond Thomas Sowell, I am hard-pressed to think of any writer whose output is truly remarkable. When we look back in fifty years, who will be our Ayn Rands, Russell Kirks, Murray Rothbards, Irving Kristols, Leo Strausses, Richard Weavers, and Friedrich Hayeks? I cannot think of anyone outside of Thomas Sowell who has continually impressed me in that regard.
Talk to Alex Knepper at apkkib@aol.com
Here are a few of the Twitter comments by users that I saw in the 15 minutes or so that I perused the site:
@kenneth212 Rush Limbaugh was rushed to the hospital in Honolulu. Maybe Santa did get my letter.
@MelechT Rush Limbaugh was rushed to the Hospital. Just when I thought Christmas was over…
@tontocorazon RT @Pumpy_Beanis DIE RUSH LIMBAUGH YOU F***ING PIG MAN JUST F***ING DIE
@phontigallo: I was scared of another death this year til I heard Rush Limbaugh was in the hospital. Come on 2009; don’t fail me now<omg
@amazingatheist: Ruch Limbaugh hospitalized with chest pains. Let’s all hope he dies.
@heartfeltrobot YES VIRGINIA, THERE IS A SANTA CLAUS! RT @cnnbrk Radio host Rush Limbaugh was rushed to a Honolulu hospital with chest pains.
@Teevho Rush Limbaugh in serious condition in the hospital? Oh happy day! Are they sure he didn’t just ingest too much hillbilly heroin?
@bbb1962 RT @MelechT: Rush Limbaugh was rushed to the Hospital. Just when I thought Christmas was over… #divinejustice #kanyeshrug *Lmfao!*
@DoodlebugFtDOR LOL..RT @phontigallo: I was scared of another death this year til I heard Rush Limbaugh was in the hospital. Come on 2009; don’t fail me now
@Yves_V So Rush Limbaugh in the hospital? If he dies, 2009 won’t be so bad after all #JustSayin
@twofacedmonster So sad…cough. RT @cnnbrk: Radio host Rush Limbaugh was rushed to a Honolulu hospital with chest pains
@danjohnny5 RT @phontigallo: I was scared of another death this year til I heard Rush Limbaugh was in the hospital. Come on 2009; don’t fail me now.
@OTOOLEFAN: Rush Limbaugh rushed to the hospital? Are the Death Panels in place yet?
@JustPlainMike RT @OTOOLEFAN: Rush Limbaugh rushed to the hospital? Are the Death Panels in place yet?
@Scottama RT @phontigallo: I was scared of another death this year til I heard Rush Limbaugh was in the hospital. Come on 2009; don’t fail me now.
@riegelracing Rush Limbaugh had a heart attack?!?! Its a late birthday present!!!!!!
@stratogato Rush Limbaugh, say hello to LUCIFER when you get there my friend
@NYfitter: RT @Mopec35: RT @Pumpy_Beanis: DIE RUSH LIMBAUGH YOU F***ING PIG MAN JUST F***ING DIE
@margery Is Rush Limbaugh terminally sick? Yippee
@ocicat_bengals Smite Rush Limbaugh in 2009!
@ZSS This just in, Rush Limbaugh hospitalized. How much you want to bet the words “hookers” and “blow” aren’t too far behind?
@RJ_Acosta i now heard this rush guy is an asshole,Rush Limbaugh,i hope you die in hell mother fucker! >:3
@dingane1: if rush Limbaugh dies ill let 09 slide on taking MJ
@the_condor RUSH LIMBAUGH SHOULD BE IN PRISON FOR HATE CRIMES. LET HIM DIE.
Probably the most clever:
@Marnus3: My sincere wish is for a full recovery for Rush Limbaugh so he can witness the re-election of Barack Obama
A few were fair-minded:
@djdebutante OK, I’m not a Rush Limbaugh fan by any means, but wishing him dead? Really people, that’s just low.
@LakefieldKid I am trying so very hard not to say anything bad about Limbaugh so I will not. But, it is killing me to remain quiet.
@FirstLadySK: Yeah, Rush Limbaugh is a terrible person, but to wish death upon him is wrong on so many levels..
What does this say about our culture?
I wonder how much press this reaction will get. The press sure liked to talk about those peaceful and orderly Tea Parties though. The one I went to with 7,500 people in California was filled with children and was about the most family-friendly public event I have ever attended.
David Schmidt is the Director of HucksArmy and reachable at david.schmidt@evercor.com, or on Facebook and Twitter
Hawaiian television stations are reporting that vacationing talk radio star Rush Limbaugh has been rushed to a hospital via ambulance. Unconfirmed sources say that he is in “serious condition” and was suffering from chest pains.
Please include El Rushbo in your prayers tonight – and here’s hoping that everyone’s favorite “harmless, lovable little fuzzball” is back on the air soon.
One person has made a case for abstinence better than anyone else, at least in making the case to young women.
The obvious winner is Levi Johnston. If you want to warn young women about the nasty side effects that can result from engaging in premarital sex, forget STDs and just tell them, “You may think your boyfriend is really sweet, but that’s what Bristol Palin thought.”
To write about Levi Johnston is a challenge. He could be called a parasite for his attempts to cash in on his relationship to Sarah Palin’s daughter with total and complete disregard for the welfare of his son and the ability to give his son something close to a normal life. However, Johnston’s conduct would cause some parasites to blush.
HoJohnston isn’t alone in this. He wouldn’t be able to do anything without the help of the media which has given a teenager with no moral character access to millions of people because of getting another teenager pregnant.
Without the media, Johnston might straighten up and become an average, ordinary, decent human being. However, the media attention makes that harder. Johnston may not be a college boy, but he knows how to play the national media like a harp, and he’ll continue to grab headlines from a media that has never ended its “anything goes” war on Sarah Palin.
In other notes:
- NCIS turns to Christian Bashing in apparent attempt to claim moral equivalence between Christianity and radical Islam.
- John Hawkins makes a compelling argument that Gridlock is good. Money quote, “If, as a nation, we could simply go back and wipe every new law off the books for the last 10 years, on the whole, we would be better off as a country.”
- Deal Hudson saysthat the Health Care debate will come down to who Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mi.) really is.
- Pastor Eric Speckhard proposes a logical future step for the ELCA based on this year’s policy change on homosexuality. (Hat Tip: Crunchy Cons.)
If Missouri Governor and Democrat Jay Nixon were serious about reducing corruption within government, he would propose, at minimum, the following four plans:
But Governor Nixon is not serious about reforming anything within Missouri government, and so he is proposing these ideas:
My grandfather Robert G. Brady was a Missouri State Representative, a local judge in Cape Girardeau, a St. Louis Court of Appeals judge, and a University of Missouri Curator.
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Benjamin Hodge publishes KansasProgress.com, based in Greater Kansas City. From 2005-2009, Hodge was a trustee at Johnson County Community College (JCCC), representing 300,000 voters and 40,000 students. He was a state representative from 2006-2008 and was elected in 2008 as a delegate to the Kansas Republican Party. Hodge’s record is recognized by AFP, the NRA, the Kansas Press Association, the Kansas Association of Broadcasters, Kansans for Life, and the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education. Connect with Hodge on Facebook, at Hodge’s political Web site, and on Twitter at @benjaminhodge.
Classical Liberalism 
Classical liberalism is hot, hot, hot! The conservative base, after spending years dominated by the interests of the religious right, has re-discovered the meaning of small government. They’re infusing it with ugly populism in their style, but on the issues, the base is undeniably liberal, in the best sense of the word. What are the top issues right now? The debt, the deficit, taxes, jobs, the economy, the size of government — nobody cares about abortion, guns, and gays right now. Glenn Beck modeled his bestseller after Thomas Paine, not Edmund Burke (he actually specifically condemns Burke’s ambivalence toward natural rights in Arguing With Idiots). Atlas Shrugged is once again a best-seller — not The Conservative Mind. Mike Huckabee has run to the right on issues of economic liberty. Welcome home, base: now let’s try to control this fire and channel it toward something useful.
Barack Obama 
I feared this man when he entered office. But rather than governing as a center-left pragmatist, he has been shockingly incompetent in his style. He punted most of his agenda to the hopelessly divided Congress, leaving the Blue Dogs and the Progressives to fight over scraps in the health care bill and letting his dream of closing Guantanamo Bay blow up in his face. Perhaps I shouldn’t have been surprised, though: Barry has never run anything. And if his approval rating keeps sinking, he won’t be running anything after a few years.
Sarah Palin
I give her a 70% chance of being the 2012 nominee. If 15% of adults say that they admire her more than any other woman in America, as the new Gallup poll indicates, then what we see is that if 2012 shapes up to be Goldwater vs. Rockefeller redux, Palin’s got the edge. Mitt can spend $100 per vote, but Palin’s supporters would pay her to have the privilege of voting for her. Her admirers are fanatics and are not wavering in their support for her.
Sadly, when stacked up against Goldwater, Palin’s got twice the looks but half the brains.
Carrie Prejean
How embarrassing! This ditz became famous for telling Perez Hilton that she supports “opposite marriage” because “that’s how she grew up.” Finally, the religious right had someone more attractive than Maggie Gallagher to stand up against gay people! In other words: she became famous because she opposed same-sex marriage. What a hero! She immediately took the victim-tack, though, titling her memoir, which sold approximately thirteen copies, Still Standing, and is now persona non grata due to an embarrassing sex tape. Oops. Bye-bye, Carrie.
Mitt Romney
Mittens has been laying lower than usual, since the individual mandate — the key feature of Obamacare — has basically been ripped straight out of Romney’s self-proclaimed “fabulous” plan. Mitt is in huge trouble if the individual mandate passes (as it is likely to): he’s going to have to defend being the state-level forerunner to Obamacare. Mitt is still a frontrunner for now, but he’s in a precarious state and needs to watch his every move. The ‘public option’ was his best hope of making this issue go away. But alas, he’s stuck with having to defend, in principle, government mandates. (Not that that’s ever been a problem for him before.)
Mark Sanford
What a waste! This clown should have been impeached for putting his hands in the public purse to pay for his escapades. Formerly a frontrunner for the presidential nomination and a bright light in the Tea Party movement, Sanford instead lost his wife, his reputation, and his dignity. But at least he has his “soul mate.” Good riddance.
Alex Knepper
Is this guy brilliant or what?
CNN had the worst performance of any major cable network in 2009, with viewership dropping 30%.
My first thought when I saw this was that news networks generally would slump a bit in the post-election period, but MSNBC was down a less-drastic 12%, while Fox was up 7%.
Too bad I left “Somebody high up at CNN is going to get axed” off my list of predictions.
Interesting choice of subject matter for Brown, as he is indeed running for the JFK’s old seat. Obviously, the Kennedys are lining up on the other side, but it’s definitely a valid point to bring up parts of the Kennedy legacy that our friends on the left try to ignore. In fact, as the left has insisted on tying ObamaCare to Ted Kennedy’s ghost, it’s probably a good idea to remind people that the Kennedys were not single-issue candidates – and that Ted’s legacy and Jack’s legacy are not entirely the same.
As I said yesterday, this race should be our top priority for the next 20 days – and I think this ad is an intriguing and aggressive kick-start as we head into the home stretch.
Let’s pretend President Bush gave a domestic security organization unrestricted ability, complete with immunity from search-and-seizure and Freedom of Information Act laws. (For liberals, the wiretapping would be your closest analogy.) Well, guess what? President Obama did so two weeks ago, in a little-noticed Executive Order on the White House website. The Order, an innocuous statement for sure, was caught and reported on by several press organizations, including National Review’s The Corner and The Washington Examiner.
ThreatsWatch.org has the most thorough analysis of what this Executive Order, which “grants INTERPOL (International Criminal Police Organization) a new level of full diplomatic immunity afforded to foreign embassies and select other “International Organizations” as set forth in the United States International Organizations Immunities Act of 1945.” In short, it appears that our sovereignty is threatened by liberals who apparently believe such a concept is merely a fossil of the past.
Update: A former Bush official says it’s about time we allowed INTERPOL to have this status. Interesting piece by ABC’s Jake Tapper. It’s a good read.
In last year’s prediction, Alex Knepper predicted:
Ron Paul shocks no one by saying something crazy.
Isolationist libertarianism has turned Paul into an apologist for thugs and terrorists that want to kill innocent Americans and this is at the top of the reasons why he will never be President and he never should be president.
Tim Huelskamp, a state senator from Kansas, is running for the 1st District Republican primary nomination. I saw a piece at Townhall.com that piqued my interest in Huelskamp a few weeks back, and got in touch with his campaign manager to conduct the below interview. He is running for the seat of Representative Jerry Moran (R-KS), who is running for retiring Senator Sam Brownback’s seat (Brownback is running for governor of Kansas.)
Some quick facts about Huelskamp:
-He is the only farmer in the Republican race.
-He has been endorsed by the Club for Growth PAC, Concerned Women for America, Gun Owners of America, Ken Blackwell, Kansans for Life, Evangelical Leader and national radio personality Jay Sekulow.
-He has been featured on RedState.com and given a 100% rating by Americans for Prosperity.
-He is Catholic, and led the fight to defund Planned Parenthood in Kansas.
-He and his wife Angela have adopted four children, including two Haitian-born girls.
-He has a Ph.D. in political science.
Huelskamp is one of seven candidates in the Republican primary race, and he has raised over $420,000 as of an October 2009 press release. Be sure to visit his campaign website here.
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Dustin Siggins: I would like to start off with, if you don’t mind, why did you decide to run? There are seven candidates running, four who have raised enough money to be competitive.
Tim Huelskamp: Yeah, that’s a good question, I guess that the question would be for the other six who got in after me. (Laughs)
DS: I didn’t know that; I’m sorry.
TH: No, no, that’s okay. No, not giving you a hard time there. No, I’ve been looking at this seat for a number of years, I’ve been a leader on many issues here in Kansas and particularly a leader in this Congressional district I’ve been active in Republican Party politics as First District delegate at the convention and those kind of things, so I’ve been very active in the district and very active statewide, and I’ve been a conservative leader at the state level and there’s just so much you can do, and given the problems in Washington with where the way Obama and Pelosi and Reid are going we need strong, articulate conservatives and that’s why I’d like to move up to the next level.
DS: So I see in the state senate you were involved with technology, agriculture, education and local government- those were the committees you were on.
TH: That’s correct.
DS: When you go to DC, how would you, what are the issues you would like to concentrate on? I mean, I have your website pulled up, and you’re obviously concentrating on- you’re a farmer, I believe, and you’re really running all, the Club for Growth, Erick Erickson, and all these places are saying great things about you, you’re getting all these positive ratings, what would you say are really the three issues you think need to be concentrated on by Congressional Republicans?
TH: Well, we- well, not we, they- have much to blame for the current situation in terms of providing the groundwork to elect a liberal Congress in ’06 and Obama in ’08, and simply put is because we had a bunch of Republicans- a lot of ‘em- enough that created problems that didn’t stick to conservative principles, and as a result in ’06 and then in ’08 Republicans were seen as the party that spent and that was many times the case.
So the first thing we’ve gotta do is redirect the Republicans back to basic values that we can’t spend our way to prosperity, we can’t spend more than we’re taking in, we can’t run up these type of deficits we’re talking about- and that would be issue number one, I think, and that gets back to the basics for the party and I think it’s the path to victory, to convince Americans again that Republicans stand for those principles and are gonna vote that way.
I’m age 41, got four young children, and I know everybody says that, what they’re gonna do about deficit spending, and roll that back and quit digging the hole they’re digging now, but if you look at my record and what makes me different from all the opponents is we’ve got a record of doing the same thing at Topeka. We’ve got the most fiscally conservative record of any state senator-
I know a lot of candidates in this race and other races talk about a tax pledge, Dustin, but I mean we took the tax pledge 14 years ago (Laughs) and have kept our word and been a leader on that, so that would be our number one issue to deal with, and probably trying to roll back- we’ll see what happens on health care- but there will be a number of things to roll back, with all the new programs that going to be started or attempt to be started in the next year or so, and newly-elected Republicans gotta commit themselves to, “No, we’re gonna roll back, we’re gonna roll back government programs and stay out of the hands of personal freedom, liberty and personal responsibility in terms of health care,” and so those are just a couple of issues that we’ll be working on hopefully in a little over a year.
DS: Back in 1994, David Frum wrote a book called Dead Right- it’s a book I read recently- and he, one of the statements he made, and I think it’s very true, is that the middle class will have to be hit with tax raises or Medicare- or other entitlement cuts- to balance the budget. And obviously entitlements are the key, are the major problems with our budget, and so how would you- what would be the top few things you would do to actually cut the budget, roll back the spending and stop the deficit spending that’s really going to crush your children, my children- I’m only 24- and our grandkids?
TH: Excellent question, and I always first say the first thing we need to do is quit digging when we’re in the hole and that’s what they’re doing in Washington, just piling it all, and that’ll be a battle just to keep them from adding new programs, expanding entitlements, you know, whether it be the Medicare expansion under President Bush that will actually be an issue in the U.S. Senate race here, because one guy voted for it and one of ‘em didn’t, and that was a massive growth of entitlements. One thing I’ve learned at the state level, and I’ve been active on trying to push some reforms, particularly in Medicaid- and they also apply to Medicare- is we have created a healthcare system in which somebody else typically pays the bill, and it’s either big government or so-called big insurance companies, generally, and we’ve lost track in that part of entitlements the role of the consumer, personal responsibility- and we talk about health savings accounts, a great aspect of small reform, but a big reform for health care, and those are the kinds of reform that we need to apply to the Medicare system as well, and to the Medicaid system. We’ve tried to push those through at the state level with Medicaid- we’ve been unable to do so, mainly because the Bush administration (Chuckles) wouldn’t give us the permission to implement some of those, plus we had a governor that wasn’t helpful. That’s one way you slow down the growth of entitlements. On the medical side is you provide the type of reforms that allow free enterprise and free markets to operate, and I think it was a big mistake when this country in World War II moved away from private pay of health care and put it on the employer, or again, put it on the government. That took the American consumer right out of the picture, and that’s been driving many of our health care costs in addition to the lack of tort reform and things such as that.
DS: My main question, or maybe I didn’t ask it correctly, and I apologize, those are long-term future, but if you were to try to cut what’s already been allotted. I mean, for example, would you be willing to cut spending for seniors, which is what the Democrats are allegedly going to do, in order to balance the budget? Would you be willing to say to people 45 or younger, “Hey, I know you’ve been paying into it, but we’ll have to cut payments, we’re going to have to cut that, or we’re going to raise taxes, you know, how would you handle what’s already been allotted, that’s already out of our budget?
Former head of El Al on why Christmas Day terrorism attempt would never have happened on the famously safe airline:
Do anybody think Obama has this guy scheduled for an interview?
Kavon will soon be posting this year’s New Year’s Predictions. However, I would propose that we carefully consider the previous year’s predictions and award points accordingly. Thus, I announce the Pat Robertson Award.
Pat Robertson is famous for prescient New Year’s predictions. Okay, so he’s right about half the time, but we need somebody to name the award after.
The Pat Robertson Award goes to that prognosticator that made the highest percent of correct predictions in the last year.
First, some definitions:
Right: A prediction was made that has completely come to pass.
Partially Right (0.5): Part of Prediction worked out, part didn’t.
Right, So Far: (.75): A prediction was made that requires future knowledge and so far its worked out but the rest requires fulfillment at some future date.
Wrong(0): No soup for you.
Let’s take a look based on my count of last year’s predictions what percentage of predictions were correct, though I’m sure someone will correct me:
Alex Knepper:
4 Right, 4 partial, 3 wrong, 1 Right So Far. 54.16% right.
Adam Graham:
11 Right, 8 wrong, 1 partial, 57.5% right
Mike “Gamecock” Gamecock Devine:
11 Wrong, 3 Right, 2 Partial, 25% right
Michael Steubel:
5 Right, 6 wrong, 1 partial, 45.83%
Matt Coulter:
4 Right, 3 wrong, 1 Right So Far, 1 Partial, 45.83%
Kristopher Lorelli:
0 Right, 3 wrong, 0% right, 0%
Aron Goldman:
3 partials, 7 wrong, 15% right
(to be fair, he wasn’t trying)
Kavon:
1 Right, 11 Wrong, 4 partials: 18.75% right
It looks like I came out on top in making predictions. My percentage would be even better if I didn’t make Sports Predictions. (I was 0-for-3 in Sports predictions.)
My best Prediction:
I had to actually give myself a partial on this because what I couldn’t imagine last year is that Obama wouldn’t submit a bill but let Congress write the whole thing.
My worst prediction:
Every prediction in this paragraph is absolutely wrong and its embarassing, or it would be even if this weren’t just for fun. I’ll let other writers share what they thought were their best and worst predictions if they so choose.
Anyway, I’m off to order a Bronze Statue of Pat Robertson in my honor. It’ll make an interesting conversation piece. Then again, I just might not have anyone over to the house this year.
Mike Huckabee has posted the following on Huck PAC:
As Republicans campaign against Democrat incumbents nationwide, I hope they will use the following list to help them make their case to voters.
TARP or as I like to call it the Congressional Relief Action Program – The money for TARP was so urgent that Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and company didn’t add any transparency to the process and now we don’t know where much of the money went.
First Stimulus Bill – It stimulated spending in Democrat Congressional districts and created almost no new jobs.
Auto Bailout – Another bailout and another expansion of government.
ACORN – This corrupt organization was a favorite of House and Senate Democrats and well funded by their congressional patrons. Voters will remember.
Obama Czars – Special advisors to the President, circumventing the traditional Congressional confirmation process. The Obama administration’s widespread and deliberate use of “Czars” is a misuse of power and needs to be reined in.
CAP and TAX – Another massive tax increase on American families and small businesses.
Ben Nelson’s Payoff – Ben Nelson sold his health care vote to Harry Reid for $300+ million in lower taxes for Nebraska.
The $12 Trillion+ National Debt – Democrats in Congress spending money they don’t have. Mortgaging our children’s future.
Nationwide Unemployment rate at 10% – The Democrats are spending money like it’s going out of style and yet they are ignoring policies that would create new jobs.
The Government Takeover of Health Care – If the bill that comes out of Congress is signed into law, it will amount to a massive government expansion into our daily lives. It is the number one reason why Democrats should be defeated.
You know times are changing when you hear this from a Democrat representative:
“The history of modern terrorism has taught us that these attacks are repeatedly executed by young Muslim men of Arab or South Asian origin. This is not a time for political correctness.”
Here is the video interview:
I understand that threat assessment profiling based on a person’s age, gender, ethnicity, country of origin, etc is what El Al does to keep the airways safe in Israel and they have an impressive safety record.
The thwarted suicide bombing has renewed calls for full-body scanners.
The scanners are able to detect weapons and explosives in places security screeners are not allowed to touch in physical pat-down searches, such as the groin area and even body cavities where items could be concealed.
Must we surrender our dignity in the name of political correctness? Are we going to subject little old ladies to getting their rear ends searched, ask children to undergo uncomfortable scans, and pretend that black men are potential suicide bombers — in the name of a lie?
We know who the potential suicide bombers are: they’re the ones coming from the Middle East and Northern Africa, who have names like Umar Farouk Abdulmuttalib. They are young, they are male, and they are Muslim.
Here’s where the inevitable crying begins: what about Timothy McVeigh? What about the female suicide bombers we’ve heard about?
Well, what about them? It’s like replying to the contention that most corporate CEOs are old white guys by pointing to Meg Whitman as “proof” that there’s no such thing as a “profile” of a corporate CEO. Yes, of course there are exceptions. To repeat: there are exceptions. An exception also implies a rule. Exceptions don’t mitigate the fact that there’s a general trend.
Umar Farouk Abdulmuttalib said that others are plotting. Do you think that they’re elderly Christian Hispanic women? Let’s let them through with a standard check and start double-checking the young, non-American Arab men. Almost none of them want to blow up planes. But absolutely no else at all is trying to.
Talk to Alex Knepper at apkkib@aol.com
Oh, good grief. Make this madness stop!
Sarah Palin’s oldest daughter appears to have lost her bid to keep a bitter legal dispute with her 1-year-old son’s father confidential.
An Alaska judge last week denied Bristol Palin’s request to keep the legal proceedings of her custody dispute with Levi Johnston closed.
Palin, 18, filed a petition in early November seeking sole custody of her son, Tripp, and child support payments. She had argued that the scrutiny the case could attract would turn it into a “media circus” that potentially could cause her son embarrassment as he grows older.
“In this day and age of the internet, media stories remain available for years, even decades, after they are first published, and anything printed in the media (whether it is true or not) will be available to Tripp when he is old enough to read,” she said in an affidavit.
Levi Johnston, who is seeking joint custody, has pushed for open court proceedings, saying he “just wants a simple case on the merits.”
“I do not feel protected against Sarah Palin in a closed proceeding,” Johnston said in an affidavit. “I hope that if it is open she will stay out of it. Bristol’s attorney is her attorney.”
Bristol Palin said that her mother, who resigned as Alaska governor in July, would not be involved in the case other than as “grandmother.”
Palin’s petition also seeks a visitation schedule for Johnston, who she says has exercised “sporadic visitation rights.”
…
Bristol Palin’s custody petition calls Johnston’s recent nude photo shoot with Playgirl magazine “risque.”
…
Palin’s custody petition also suggested Levi Johnston may have his own issues with substance abuse, saying he made statements about seeking “weed” on Twitter.
Johnston denies making such a statement, saying the Twitter account “is a fraud” and that he doesn’t have an account on the popular online social networking site.
I’m sick of this crap, I’m sick of Levi Johnston (he’s not a ‘gay icon,’ people!), and all of this needs to go away — yesterday.
President Andrew Jackson prided himself on being the first “outsider” to ascend to the White House. From George Washington to John Quincy Adams, America’s first six chief executives were creatures of the Eastern aristocracy. Jackson, however, was not a member of this established order. While the Founding Fathers sought to apply the ideals of the revolution throughout their terms in office, they were ever cautious of the threat of mobocracy. Political giants of the Jacksonian era, men like Senators John C. Calhoun, Henry Clay, and Daniel Webster, worried that the president’s popularity with the “common man” would diminish their congressional powers and foment a monarchy or military dictatorship.
Old Hickory, of course, viewed the situation in a much different light. Furious that an apparent “corrupt bargain” between Clay and Adams had solidified his electoral defeat in 1824 (despite having won the popular vote comfortably), Jackson captured the presidency in 1828 and again in 1832, determined to serve as a steadfast representative of the people. The political battles his White House waged with Congress, most notably on the issue of the recharter of the powerful Second Bank of the United States, focused on Jackson’s desire to play the role of Robin Hood to the nation’s elite—in essence, to weaken the monopoly of power in the hands of the few. At a time when settlers grappled with the thorny issue of Indian removal in places like Florida and Georgia, and South Carolina leaders frustrated by high tariffs threatened secession, Jackson always trusted the will and wisdom of the majority.
American Lion, author Jon Meacham’s seminal examination of Jackson’s life, notes that the president favored the work of the French philosopher François Fénelon in Telemachus. After years of political education under his mentor, Telemachus asserts that the “multitude, though fickle and capricious, does not fail sooner or later to do justice, in some measure, to true virtue.” Such words, no doubt, were akin to Jackson’s own convictions. He was aware that leadership was tragic, roiled by “disappointments and injustices and failures of imagination…” Jackson, Meacham posits, “understood that governing was provincial—no single bill or single election would ever bring about the perfections of all things–but his experience suggested that the American people, if given world enough and time, would come to a right conclusion.”
Speaking in the days after Jackson’s death, historian George Bancroft said “that the whole human mind, and therefore with it the mind of the nation, has a continuous, ever improving existence; that the appeal from the unjust legislation of to-day must be made quietly, earnestly, perseveringly, to the more enlightened collective reason of to-morrow…” As Jackson was known to say, “the people, sir—the people will set things to rights.”
Political scientist John Mueller reminds his audience that democracy is naturally based on apathy, discord, hasty compromise, inequality, and “manipulative scrambling by special interests.” Even if large and controversial solutions to national problems garner enough support, they are likely to be severely compromised compared to their original composition. This dynamic was on display in recent months during the health care debate, as Democrats did battle over the public option plan and other progressive priorities. What happened to the tense days late last year when the electorate appeared ready to back extreme measures in the face of widespread economic distress? What of Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel’s infamous, “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste,” pronouncement? The reality, though, paints President Obama as a lonely voice of power amid outcries from both his liberal base and the center he struggles to hold.
Like Jackson, Obama came to Washington as a self-proclaimed outsider; he applied lofty rhetoric in his promises to foster bipartisan support for an agenda that would tackle growing concerns in the health care, energy, and financial sectors. Obama spoke often of the necessity of restoring the trust the American people once held for their national government. The current administration was hailed as the next champion for the rights of the struggling masses, those whom were mistreated by greedy Wall Street bankers and nearsighted bureaucrats. In Jackson’s terms, the aristocracy or privileged class. Yet, after a year of rancor and infighting, Obama was left to dump the public option, cater to Democratic legislators opposed to abortion, and shower benefits on key states to produce those 60 critical votes in the Senate chamber. As Mueller made clear, freedom is unfair because it grants access and equal opportunities to all so that they may make themselves politically unequal in influence and power.
No matter what comes of the combined health care bill expected in the months ahead, Obama’s Washington would be wise to remember the words of a forgotten figure from the age of Jackson. Edward Livingston, serving as a senator from Louisiana from 1829 to 1831 and later as Jackson’s secretary of state, warned against zealotry and the “excess of party rage.” He called for calm and common sense at the height of such heated discourse:
It arrogates to itself every virtue, denies every merit to its opponents, secretly entertains the worst designs…mounts the pulpit, and, in the name of a God of mercy and peace, preaches discord and vengeance; invokes the worst scourges of Heaven, war, pestilence, and famine, as preferable alternatives to party defeat…”
Democracy has its limitations. The difficulties of governance produce special interests, political deals, and questionable compromises that, more often than not, lead nowhere. Through it all, the people “will set things to rights.” Progress is slow and incremental; if the health care bill is flawed and ineffective, new legislation will account for previous failures and the social contract will move forward. As it was in Jackson’s America, so it remains in Obama’s.
Think the January 19th special election for Teddy Kennedy’s seat is a lost cause? Well, think again. GOP nominee Scott Brown is mounting a strong late charge, and putting himself in position to bump off Democrat Martha Coakley with a surprise attack at the last minute.
Now, don’t get me wrong, Massachusetts is the bluest of blue states, and Coakley should be a shoo-in. However, special elections can be tricky due to low turnout, and weird things can happen if the opposition party floods the polls (and the incumbents get complacent). This is how we got Joseph Cao elected last year in deep-blue New Orleans, and Scott Brown has put together a brilliant strategy aimed at producing a similar phenomenon in Massachusetts.
Leveraging social media, Brown is not only securing donations from the GOP’s national grassroots, but using them for phone banking. I have to monitor Twitter at work, and I can tell you that the Brown campaign’s “phone bank from home” initiative has gone totally viral. It is EVERYWHERE on Twitter, and if one assumes that everyone who retweets Brown makes only one call per tweet – then Brown is currently averaging somewhere around two calls PER MINUTE. Furthermore – he’s actually benefitting from the race’s low profile and the perception that he’s being ignored. For instance, HotAir’s Ed Morissey gave Brown a shot in the arm today with a post asking if he had been abandoned by the RNC. This is 100% red meat for insurgent conservatives who feel that the party is picking the wrong battles. Granted, Brown tweeted today to assure supporters that the RNC and NRSC have given him everything he has asked for so far – but the perception (fed by the lack of fervor over this race compared to NY-20 and NY-23) has already created a mass outpourng of support.
The internet could also translate into some serious campaign cash if Brown can keep up the excitement – as he is planning a Ron Paul-style moneybomb for January 11th.
While it would be hard for him to stay out considering this is a Massachusetts race, Mitt Romney appears ready to go all-in here as well. He issued fundraising letter today, declaring that “Scott’s election would shock the country”. Granted, I would probably advise Mitt to get out on the trail with Brown and make himself visible – as he will probably want to stay ahead of the tsunami that will hit if Gov. Palin issues an endorsement (which seems likely to me).
Now – for those of you who still think this effort is too futile to support, consider this: As I mentioned earlier, we won a similar campaign last year with Joseph Cao in Louisiana’s Second Congressional District. The runoff election was on a strange date, the Democratic electorate got lazy, and the GOP flooded the polls. Yes, that race also included an indicted incumbent in William Jefferson, and the electorate was ten times smaller by population. However, LA-2 has a Cook Partisan Voting Index score of D +25. The statewide Cook PVI for Massachusetts, by comparison, is only D +12. That’s still a pretty intimidating score, but in perspective that should show you just how achievable this is…especially considering the possibility of freezing weather on election day.
If I were in the RNC’s shoes right now, I would shift this race immediately to top priority. I would also hope that Scott Brown is being lined up as a guest by Sean Hannity and the rest of the talk radio crew (Limbaugh doesn’t do guests but hopefully he will at least give Brown a plug). No, it’s not going to be easy – and yes, Martha Coakley is rolling in cash. However, the Democrats aren’t watching their backs in this race, the “win one for Teddy” fervor was wasted on the effort to install interim Senator Paul Kirk, and Scott Brown clearly has momentum. Furthermore, even if we don’t win, a stronger-than-expected second place would seriously spook the Democrats in this particular election.
The only thing standing between us and this Senate seat right now is our own self-doubt – but if we can “have a Cao” in New Orleans, then we have every reason to expect a “Brownout” in Massachusetts. This thing is ours for the taking – so let’s get to work.
And while I’m sure the Brown campaign would prefer this not be made an issue, reality TV fans should remember his daughter Ayla as a semi-finalist on American Idol season 5. Normally, I wouldn’t bring this up – but I figured I’d drop it in here simply because I actually do remember Ayla. I was voting for her that season and was really ticked when she didn’t make the top 12. So, that was my ”six degrees of Kevin Bacon” moment for the day (Oh, and I found out that Ayla does have some new tunes out for those of us who were fans.)
When former Congressman Tom Campbell was considered for Lt. Governor of California, the Democrats in control of the legislature would have none of it because they were afraid of the boost he would recieve in a possible governor’s bid. From the LA Times:
“Campbell is the Republican who scares us the most,” says Bill Cavala, a former Democratic operative for the state Assembly who’s now managing Garamendi’s campaign. “Not in a thousand years would we breathe life into such a dangerous candidate.”
One of the reasons some haven’t given him much of a chance is because of his lack of funds. With all due respect to Meg Whitman, Campbell could very well be the strongest candidate the GOP in this race who could win. The biggest knock against him is probably the fact that he is pro choice, but so is Whitman. Campbell also is more conservative on issues such as gun control and immigration than Whitman, and has a legislative record to back it up.
Campbell’s resume is very impressive, considering the financial crisis that the state of California is currently in:
Tom has a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago. His faculty advisor was Milton Friedman. Prior to that, Tom had obtained his B.A. and M.A. degrees in economics from the University of Chicago, on the same day in 1973. He then entered Harvard Law School where he served on the Harvard Law Review Board of Editors. He graduated Magna Cum Laude from Harvard Law in 1976. After law school, Tom served as law clerk to U.S. Supreme Court Justice Byron White. Thereafter, Tom returned to the University of Chicago for his economics doctorate, received in 1980. His free market economics training cemented a life-long commitment to limited government and greater individual liberty.
Tom Campbell has a 20 year track record of promoting less government and individual liberty. Starting in 1988, he was elected five times to the U.S. Congress, representing districts in the Silicon Valley. He was also elected a California State Senator, and served as Director of Finance for the State of California. The National Taxpayers Union Foundation named Tom the most frugal member of the 102nd Congress, and the California Journal named Tom the “State Senate’s best problem-solver” – a quality the people of California could soon see at work in the Governor’s office.
*Five terms in the U.S Congress, representing districts in California’s Silicon Valley, during periods both of economic growth and recession. Service included the Joint Economic Committee of the US Senate and House.*Five years as Dean of one of the most prestigious business schools in the world, the University of California’s Haas School of Business. Nineteen years on the faculty at Stanford. Starting in January, Visiting Professor at Chapman University, in Orange, while on leave from Berkeley.
*Director of Finance for the State of California, 2004-2005. This was the last year when the state spent no more than it received in revenue—when the state balanced the budget without additional borrowing, taxes, or dipping into reserves.
*Rated Overall Best California State Senator, by the California Journal. Also, rated the Most Ethical State Senator, and the State Senate’s Best Problem Solver.
*Overall, 11 years in elective office (U.S. Congress, California State Senate).
*Two and a half years in the administration of President Ronald Reagan (including Director of the Bureau of Competition).
*Two years as a law clerk, including the US Supreme Court
*Winner, Republican primary for US Senate, 2000 (defeated in general election by Feinstein).
It all comes down to whether Campbell can come up with the necessary funds to mount a serious challenge. He currently runs 2nd in most polls, but there are a very high number of undecideds. If he gets some more traction, he could be the candidate Democrats fear the most. So while some of the big names are supporting Whitman, it would be wise not to overlook this candidate.
George Will agrees with me.
Thomas Day and Jonathan Landay of McClatchy Newspapers have provided us with a detailed look at the mounting difficulties in Afghanistan:
As the U.S. and its allies try to overcome logistical hurdles and rush some 40,000 more troops to Afghanistan in 2010, intelligence officials are warning that the Taliban-led insurgency is expanding and that “time is running out” for the U.S.-led coalition to prove that its strategy can succeed.
The Taliban have created a shadow “government-in-waiting,” complete with Cabinet ministers, that could assume power if the U.S.-backed government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai fails, a senior International Security Assistance Force intelligence official said in Kabul, speaking only on the condition of anonymity as a matter of ISAF policy.
As the Obama administration and its European allies face dwindling public and political support for the eight-year-old Afghan war, the Taliban now have what the official called “a full-fledged insurgency” and shadow governors in 33 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces, including those in the north, where U.S. and other officials had thought the Islamic extremists posed less of a threat.
…As the Taliban have extended their reach, they’ve also grown more formidable militarily by developing bigger and more effective improvised explosive devices. Insurgents have mounted 7,228 IED attacks so far this year, compared with 81 in 2003, and, as McClatchy reported last month, the homemade bombs have even destroyed some Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles, the most heavily armored U.S. troop transports.
With President Obama’s decision to send 30,000, instead of 40,000, additional troops to Afghanistan, this information enhances the urgency for the U.S. to secure the commitment of enough NATO forces to fill the gap. With Afghanistan gaining traction in the public’s consciousness as the operation becomes more imperiled, similar to Iraq in 2006-2007, and terrorism yet again rearing its ugly head, Obama will likely find his focus and efforts increasingly diverted away from his domestic agenda and toward national security.
Rasmussen Nebraska 2012 Senatorial Survey
- Dave Heineman (R) 61%
- Ben Nelson (D) 30%
- Some other candidate 5%
- Not sure 4%
What if Senator Ben Nelson voted against the current healthcare reform legislation being considered by Congress and prevented it from becoming law. If the 2012 election for United States Senate were held today would you vote for Republican Dave Heineman or Democrat Ben Nelson?
- Dave Heineman 47%
- Ben Nelson 37%
- Some other candidate 10%
- Not sure 7%
Please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of Ben Nelson.
- Very favorable 12%
- Somewhat favorable 28%
- Somewhat unfavorable 21%
- Very unfavorable 34%
Before voting to approve the Senate version of health care reform, Senator Nelson made a deal on Medicaid payments for Nebraska. Do you approve or disapprove of the deal Nelson made on Medicaid for Nebraska in exchange for voting for the health bill?
- Approve 17%
- Disapprove 62%
Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?
- Strongly favor 19%
- Somewhat favor 16
- Somewhat oppose 11%
- Strongly oppose 53%
When thinking about Senator Ben Nelson’s role in the health care debate so far, would you rate his performance as excellent, good, fair or poor?
- Excellent 6%
- Good 20%
- Fair 22%
- Poor 47%
Generally speaking, is Ben Nelson too supportive of President Obama’s agenda, too opposed to the President’s agenda, or about right?
- Too supportive 42%
- Too opposed 13%
- About right 30%
Should health insurance paid for or subsidized with government funding be required to cover abortions, be prohibited from covering abortions, or have no requirements concerning abortions?
- Required to cover abortions 6%
- Prohibited from covering abortions 65%
- Have no requirements concerning abortions 22%
How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?
- Strongly approve 24%
- Somewhat approve 14%
- Somewhat disapprove 14%
- Strongly disapprove 47%
Survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted December 28. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.
-My friend Austin Russell wrote the below piece and, not having a blog to write on, asked me to put it up for him…
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Yesterday morning, The Wall Street Journal published a recent interview with Raghuram Rajan, former Chief Economist of The International Monetary Fund. Rajan, like so many of his contemporaries, asserts what has become the most prominent of modern economic truisms: “Some people” says Mr. Rajan, “are concluding that Capitalism doesn’t work.” Rajan’s words could be permanently included as a sub-title to the bible of modern economic theory.
Rejoicing in victory, advocates of a socialized economy continue to parade the collapse and subsequent recession of 2008 and 2009 as undeniable proof that Capitalism has failed its human masters and must now be replaced by regulation under the firm but benevolent rule of modern philosopher kings. Private individuals and corporations have demonstrated their incompetence and inability to manage their own affairs and must now bow to the rule of the better educated aristocracy. Apparently, “Yes We Can” applies only to the publicly anointed, whom, after ascending political office, must turn to their constituents, and continue “But you my friends, cannot.”
Capitalism is nothing more than a name for the political philosophy expressed in our very own Declaration of Independence. The truths that we hold self-evident, “that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness,” are the very foundation of Capitalism which allows individuals to dictate their own destiny without the intervention and regulation of a monarch or aristocracy. To reject Capitalism is to reject freedom-the freedom to succeed and the freedom to fail. While it is true that individuals will make mistakes, the alternative–stiff government regulation and control–only frustrates and discourages innovation in the name of protecting individuals from themselves. And so, just as the loving and protective parent must eventually learn to let her child grow into adulthood and independence, so too, governments must allow citizens to make their own decisions, to govern their own lives, and define their own destinies.
The Miami Herald has a very in-depth report on connections between Members of Congress and indicted banker Allen Stanford. The federal government is currently investigating the connections. Representative Pete Sessions (R-TX) is highlighted at the beginning of the article. The head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Sessions is is likely to be in a lot of hot water, both legally and in the eyes of the public. Unfortunately, he’s not the only Member who will be.
I first saw this at Daily Kos. Normally, this would be unfortunate, as bad things about Republicans on Daily Kos generally turn into bad news for that Republican and the party. However, in this case I am very glad they are spreading what is going on. Corruption should be stopped as soon as possible, by whomever will do it. Democrats haven’t done their job in rooting out well-known (if legally unproven) corruption with Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), Representative Barney Frank (D-MA), Representative Charlie Rangel (D-NY), Representative Maxine Waters (D-CA) and many others who are suspected of corruption, including Senator Max Baucus (D-MT). Regrettably, Republicans are little better, having failed to hold numerous members of their caucus to ethical standards, including prostitute-utilizer Senator David Vitter (R-LA) and Senator John Ensign (R-NV). Too, while not part of the Congressional caucus, South Carolina governor Mark Sanford is still in power despite the probable illicit taxpayer use for his travels.
Nothing illegal has been proven, as Stanford’s lawyer says in the Herald article. However, American citizens should insist that the Justice Department conduct a thorough review of Stanford’s records, and make certain all information comes to light well before the 2010 mid-term elections, and that arrests are made should the Justice Department decide illegalities were committed.
One last note: Daily Kos hammers Sessions, but neglects to note Democrats were large recipients of Stanford’s money as well. The latter is not their job- they are a liberal blog, after all, not a news source- but I would hope they would go after Rangel and the other Democrats mentioned in the article, if only in the interest of keeping Democrats honest. (Of course, if Sessions hadn’t said he “loved” Stanford, perhaps DK wouldn’t have gone after him quite so harshly.)
This was originally posted at THE LOBBYIST.
Update: Take a look at Judicial Watch’s list of the most corrupt members of Congress. Nine out of the ten are Democrats which, as Ed Morrissey explains, makes sense in the current political climate. However, added to the May 20 Center for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington report showing 12 of the 16 Members of Congress under investigation at that time were Democrats, perhaps Democratic politicians are just as bad as the corrupt Republicans hammered on back in 2006. (Just a guess…)
Competence.
That is the key ingredient to doing any job. Instead of making the public safer and travel efficient, US Homeland Security Chief Janet Napolitano has opted to coddle the public with fluffy statements and new mind-numbingly dumb travel restrictions that don’t make us any safer.
For a rundown on what new travel restrictions are now in place, watch this video from a JetBlue flight:
These new restrictions would have done NOTHING to prevent or stop the Detroit terrorist attack. All they do is waste the time of the American people. If every American wastes just one hour over the next year because of the actions of Napolitano and the TSA, then approximately 300,000,000 American hours would be lost. That is equal to the collective length of 428 lives lived to 80-years-old. In short, Napolitano and the US Government just deprived the American people of more collective life than a successful terrorist attack on a large jetliner.
What Napolitano doesn’t want to admit to the public is that PETN (the explosive involved in the failed attack) cannot be detected by metal detectors and would likely make it on-board a US flight if attempted. Also, a small amount of PETN can cause a lot of damage so it can be easily hidden. The Detroit terrorist attacker had 80g and Richard Reid had 50g of PETN in his failed attack 8 years ago. Here is a video of 4g of PETN:
Here is a video of 20g of PETN:
I have to agree with Daniel Pipes, the director of the Middle East Forum and Jerusalem Post columnist when he says:
Abdulmutallab’s near-success and Napolitano’s idiotic response tell Americans about the weakness of counter-terrorist efforts so many years after 9/11.
Here is the truth, we aren’t safe, we have never been safe. The world around us is not safe. Driving a car isn’t safe. I am going to be flying in about a week and I am not bothered by that fact at all. I have known the dangers for years and accept them as a risk that the benefit of flying outweighs. The best defense is for the air traveling public to be vigilant about what is going on around them.
The alternative to flying is just not acceptable as there will be great loss of life if we shut-down our society. Medical advancement along with many other technological and economic advances will slow and result in the death of many around the globe (not to mention the loss of quality of life).
What Napolitano should do is help educate the American people that flying isn’t perfectly safe but it is an acceptable risk. She should stop insisting on new regulations that waste the public’s life and don’t make us any safer. Maybe the public wants to be coddled by lies that we are more safe if we do things like not watch live TV on planes. I for one want a government that speaks the truth and helps educate the public, even if it is uncomfortable. A false sense of security is no security at all. It seems that our best defense so far has been alert citizens and somewhat incompetent attackers.
In short, Napolitano should be fired for:
President Barack Obama looks over as US Homeland Security Chief Janet Napolitano speaks.
David Schmidt is the Director of HucksArmy and reachable at david.schmidt@evercor.com, or on Facebook and Twitter
