A blog about politics.

Kristol Blue Deflation

It should come as no surprise that Bill Kristol's reaction to the passage of health care reform is ungracious and tactical. After all, his "thinking" on this issue has been non-stop base and cheesy since he wrote his infamous memo advising Republicans to deny Bill Clinton a victory on health care in December 1993. The remarkable thing about that memo is that it remained the sole Republican strategy on health care 17 years later--well past its sell-by date--squelching the very valuable, and creative, thinking that had been emanating from the Republicans on health care since Stuart Butler's Heritage Foundation plan. (And no, Paul Ryan's crashingly radical plan to gut Medicare doesn't count as creative thinking.)

The remarkable key to Kristol's advice is the acknowledgment, in 1993, that the passage of health care reform would be a victory for Bill Clinton. Kristol thought it would be bad politics to grant Clinton the popularity that would come with passage.

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Jane Mayer Takes On Marc Thiessen

"Thiessen is better at conveying fear than at relaying the facts," Mayer writes in the new New Yorker. "'Courting Disaster' has a scholarly feel, and hundreds of footnotes, but it is based on a series of slipshod premises."

Read her entire review of Thiessen's book here.

          

Morning Must Reads: Moment of Victory

White House

Official White House Photo by Pete Souza

--There's a lot to digest after last night's historic vote on health care reform. Might as well dive right in:

--David Sanger writes in the New York Times that Obama succeeded at reshaping American social welfare -- a feat the last two president's failed to accomplish -- but at the cost of his promise to overcome partisanship in Washington.

--Paul Krugman argues the bill's passage discredits Republican tactics.

--Ross Douthat and Matthew Continetti note that Democratic health reform is now testable in both fiscal and human terms. They both predict time will vindicate their objections to the legislation.

--Matthew Yglesias and David Frum both write the bill's passage is Republican's Waterloo. The latter makes this point: "Legislative majorities come and go. This healthcare bill is forever. A win in November is very poor compensation for this debacle now."

--Bill Kristol, Jim DeMint and John McCain say they're going to doggedly pursue repeal.

--Ezra Klein wants to get back to focusing on what's in it.

--Nate Silver breaks down the degree to which certain factors (race competitiveness, district uninsured rate, etc.) appears to have played into Democrats' votes.

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Health Care: A Historic Win for Obama

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Here's my story for TIME.com.

          

It's Not Easy Being Stupak

Oh, how quickly they turn. A short while ago, Bart Stupak was in the midst of delivering an impassioned argument against the Republican motion to recommit the health reform bill when a Republican across the aisle hollered "Babykiller!" at him. That has to be a first for Stupak. But it may not be the last, as his last-minute decision to back health reform despite not getting his way on language in the bill has angered his once-allies more than if he'd made the switch months ago.

To wit: the Susan B. Anthony List, which works to elect pro-life women, had planned on honoring Stupak at its Campaign for Life Gala this Wednesday, announced a few hours ago that it was stripping Stupak of its "Defender of Life" award. "By accepting this deal from the most pro-abortion President in American history, Stupak has not only failed to stand strong for unborn children, but also for his constituents and pro-life voters across the country," said president Marjorie Dannenfelser.

          

The House just passed the Senate health care bill, answering the question of whether or not President Obama and Democrats in Congress would be able to pass health care reform. See the roll call here.

At the White House, Robert Gibbs has been Tweeting the action:

About 40 staff in Roosevelt Room with VP to watch the vote - President walked into the room to sustained applause

POTUS watched vote in room aptly named for president who started this - cheers and clapping at 216 - high five for Rahm, hugs all around

          

The Importance of Being Stupak

A quick turn around time.com story from me on Michigan's Bart Stupak and his 15 minutes of global fame today.

          

Health Reform Vote Rout

The House vote on its debate rule--an essential precursor to the two votes to come later tonight--has passed with 224 votes in favor and 206 opposed. A landslide, huh?...So what was all the fuss about?

          

For Real This Time--Stupak's an Aye

After working out a "deal" with the White House on abortion, Bart Stupak will be voting for health reform later this evening. I say "deal," because the executive order the White House announced it would issue to get Stupak's vote essentially promises that no federal funding will be used to subsidize abortion procedures--a promise easily enough given because that's exactly what Democratic leaders and the White House have said their version of health reform does all along.

It's really hard to interpret this as anything other than Stupak caving in order to end up on the side of supporting health reform. There's nothing wrong with that--Stupak has long been a supporter of reforming the health care system--but it's difficult to see why he dragged this out for months if he was going to settle for the Senate language in the end. Stupak's health care dance may well have made it even harder for pro-life Democrats to have their concerns taken seriously going forward.

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Stupak Votes Nay, erhmm... Yea?

Bart Stupak and the congressional leaders are in a complicated mating dance. In a bold courting move this morning leadership sources leaked that the Michigan Democrat was a Yea. Not so quick, replied Stupak's office. Coyly, he said, he's still in talks and reviewing the executive order. Word back from leadership sources is that Rep. John Dingell, the dean of the House and the Michigan delegation, is working on bringing Stupak around and that they're "on the fine print" of a deal. Stupak, a Dingell protege, was in tears when Dingell lost his House Energy and Commerce gavel to Henry Waxman last year. Health care reform has been Dingell's top priority during his 54 years in office and, in fact, the House bill was named for him. If Stupak does finally vote for the bill, it'll be thanks to Dingell's persuasion.

Meanwhile, the protesters are outside and inside the chamber. Some protesters have been encouraging their brethren to sign up for tours of the chamber and whilst there stand up and disrupt proceedings. Thus far two have and were promptly arrested. The first time a man shouted, "Kill the bill," prompting cheers from some Republicans. Democrats were immediately outraged, citing the sanctity of chamber decorum. "It's dangerous to be encouraging these people inside the chamber," Rep. Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat, told reporters afterwards. "It's outrageous and appalling." Soon after Rep. Mike Pence, the No. 3 House Republican, emerged from the chamber saying the protesters' removal was "appropriate," and "we will observe the decorum of the chamber throughout the day." The chants of the hundreds of protesters below could be heard from the Speaker's Lobby off the House floor and giddy GOP members took advantage of the House's Eva Peron-style balcony to wave to protesters and hold up their own hand-drawn "Kill the bill" signs, provoking roaring responses below.

          

Stupak's a Yea?

MSNBC and C-SPAN are reporting that Michigan Democrat Bart Stupak will vote for the bill, bringing along at least half a dozen votes with him. Apparently, an executive order on abortion that the White House had been negotiating with Stupak is what pushed him over the edge. Stupak, a pro-life Democrat, nearly derailed the passage of health care reform through the House in November when he and more than a dozen pro-life Democrats refused to vote for the bill unless stringent language barring the use of federal funds to subsidize abortions be included. Stupak had said that the Senate's language did not go far enough to appease him.

Democratic Caucus Chairman John Larson of Connecticut said this morning that Dems now have the 216 votes to pass health care reform this evening. The House convenes at 1pm. The Speaker's office is saying that final passage probably won't occur until 9:30pm tonight. That could potentially stretch later as Minority Leader John Boehner has threatened to use leadership floor privileges -- which grant him unlimited time to talk (during the global warming debate he worried Dems that he might filibuster when he launched into an hour-long speech against the bill) -- to read the entire 2,300-page bill. If that happens Dems say they'll reconvene tomorrow to pass the bill rather than stretching the session too late into the night.

Meanwhile, large crowds remained gathered outside the House -- both supporters and detractors of the bill (though the detractors are much louder, their chants of "Kill the Bill" could be heard from the Senate side). These crowds got really ugly yesterday shouting the N-word at Civil Rights legend John Lewis as he walked by and "Faggot" at Rep. Barney Frank, one of only a handful of openly gay members of Congress. Also today on the mall in front of Congress thousands of pro-immigration protesters are gathering, adding extra headaches for the Capitol Police. But, as one officer cheerfully noted to me on my way into the building, at least the weather's nice. Indeed, it's 80 degrees and gloriously sunny. Too bad I'll be spending the whole afternoon in the chilly marble corridors of the House (yes, I expect enormous crocodile tears of pity). More to come as the afternoon unfolds.

          

Obama's Big Day

From a White House official:

The President made a surprise appearance at an 11:00am meeting of senior staff.

He's in the West Wing, getting updates, dropping in on staff, and like the rest of America, examining the rubble of his bracket.

He's preparing to make and take member phone calls as we move toward the vote.

          

Closing Arguments

As Kate Pickert notes below:

Even so, Republican opposition was still in full force all day Saturday with House Minority Leader John Boehner saying passage of the Democratic plan for health reform would constitute “Armageddon” that would “ruin our country.”

You have to wonder what Boehner and the others will say on Monday morning--or on some stray Monday six months from now--if the sun is shining and the birds are singing...and America has, somehow, survived Armageddon and is, in fact, stronger than it is today, and people have health insurance that can no longer be taken away. The fact is, as the President has said repeatedly, health care is not going to change for the vast majority of Americans. And it is going to improve dramatically for those who don't have health insurance now or who worry that they're going to lose the coverage they have. The cost will go up a bit...but less so than if no legislation is passed...and, ultimately, if the health care exchange superstores have the same effect on competitive pricing that Walmart has had on consumer goods, the costs will come down.

Conservatives are poised to stand on the wrong side of history--as they have with every major piece of social legislation that has been passed since the New Deal. Which is too bad for our democracy,

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Bill Clinton

was a hit at last night's 125th annual Gridiron Dinner, where he filled in for Barack Obama as the main speaker. The punchline of the evening was his prediction for the health care bill:

"It may not happen in my lifetime, or Dick Cheney's, but hopefully by Easter."

          

"We feel like we've been pregnant for 17 months, let's get on with it already." Those were the words of Democrat Rep. Louise Slaughter, chairwoman of the House Rules Committee, on Saturday, as she moved health reform one step closer to the finish line.

Well put. After all the hearings and debates and town halls; after the Gang of Six broke up and Scott Brown got elected; after Glenn Beck convinced a lot of people that Democratic health reform is socialism; after Barack Obama's poll numbers slid and slid and slid…It's time for lawmakers to cast what could be the second to last vote on comprehensive health care reform this year.

On the eve of what he hopes will be an historic political and policy achievement, President Obama gave an impassioned speech to House Democrats Saturday on the merits of liberalism, hoping to inspire few more to vote yes on the legislation. Speaker Nancy Pelosi continued to round up votes Saturday and was reportedly a handful away from the 216 she needs to pass the Senate health bill and a package of changes to that legislation.

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