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June 10, 2009, 4:41 pm

A Green Revolution for Iran?

As election fever grips Tehran, and it begins to seem possible that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad could lose to his main rival, Mir Hussein Moussavi, in Friday’s presidential election, Iranians who want to stick with the incumbent have been dropping hints that the campaign to vote him out of office might be the culmination of some sort of foreign plot to undermine their country.

After a rally for Mr. Ahmadinejad at Tehran’s largest mosque on Monday, a man explained to Lindsey Hilsum of Britain’s Channel 4 News (about 1 minute into the video report embedded below) that “all these people want Islamic republic — not liberal democracy, not Orange Revolution.” The fact that Mr. Moussavi’s supporters have made a color — in this case green, which has solid Islamic credentials — the symbol of their movement probably just reinforces the fear among some Iranians that what they are witnessing is a local version of the Orange Revolution, which swept an opposition government into power in Ukraine.

Iranians come by their willingness to believe that foreigners are plotting against them honestly, since American and British intelligence agents did, in fact, conspire to overthrow Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh in 1953. More recently, Seymour Hersh reported just last year that the Bush administration was spending hundreds of millions of dollars on covert operations designed to destabilize the country’s government. Then last month a senior Democratic Congresswoman, Jane Harman, seemed to suggest that the United States should be encouraging separatist movements inside Iran. While Ms. Harman apologized for her remarks, a spate of recent bombings and attacks in Iran, possibly carried out by separatists, has made Iranians wonder if the Obama administration’s policy towards them might involve bombs as well as barbecues.

But Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence has cultivated these fears as well. According to the Middle East Media Research Institute, last year the ministry produced and broadcast an elaborate, and unintentionally funny, public service announcement warning Iranians that Western pro-democracy movements were really covers for anti-government plots hatched in the White House.

INSERT DESCRIPTIONStill frame from a video produced by Iran’s intelligence ministry (via MEMRI.org).

In the long-form commercial posted, with subtitles, on MEMRI.org, (registration required) animated versions of John McCain and George Soros are shown meeting inside the White House to plot against Iran. The evil genius they confer with is an animated version of Gene Sharp, the political scientist whose theoretical work on nonviolent protest inspired the color revolutions of Eastern Europe.

While there is no sign that Mr. Moussavi, a former prime minister of Iran in the 1980s, really is some sort of Western puppet, the fact that his campaign has made an issue of how Mr. Ahmadinejad has alienated Iran from the West might make it easier for his opponents to cast him as somehow soft on America.

Mr. Moussavi and his supporters seem unbowed by these sorts of accusations though. Chants of “Death to America” at rallies for Mr. Ahmadinejad this week were answered by chants of “Death to the Taliban — in Kabul and Tehran” at a rally for Mr. Moussavi. The candidate’s articulate and engaged wife has even been compared with America’s first lady (though, when asked this week about her role in her husband’s campaign, she stated simply: “I am not Michelle Obama”). On the streets of Tehran, and on Flickr, the opposition leader’s green-clad supporters have been seen waving posters of him bearing the promise, in English, of “a new greeting to the world.”

That last slogan makes it clear that Mr. Moussavi shares more than just a middle name with the new American president. Mr. Obama’s speech in Cairo last week was called “A New Beginning: Engaging With Muslims Worldwide,” and throughout his own campaign, Mr. Obama argued that his country needed a new leader who could abandon the confrontational foreign policy of the previous administration. Looking at the size and intensity of the demonstrations by his supporters in Tehran this week, it is clear that Mr. Moussavi has convinced some Iranians that their time for change has come, too. On Friday we will find out if a majority of the country’s voters feel the same way.

For a better look at how the campaign is playing out on Tehran’s streets this week, here is Ms. Hilsum’s report for Channel 4 News:


From 1 to 25 of 27 Comments

  1. 1. June 10, 2009 5:29 pm Link

    In my opinion, Amadinejad has benefited from Western news coverage, which has given him - incredibly - credibility. Hopefully, his luck has run out.

    — Matt
  2. 2. June 10, 2009 5:35 pm Link

    MOSSADEGH was NOT democratically elected. You westerners MUST get that through your head. There were NO such things as elections in Iran back then. The prime minister was PICKED by the Shah and was ONLY allowed to be dismissed BY the very same Shah. Western historical revisionism on this is INSANE and utterly bizarre. You must read Gholam-Reza Afhkhami’s new book, The Life and Times of the Shah to REALLY understand modern Iranian history.

    — Ban
  3. 3. June 10, 2009 5:52 pm Link

    Is there reason to believe the election will be fairer than, let’s say, the contested election of Bush?

    How did they achieve democracy on their own?

    — Do they use chads?
  4. 4. June 10, 2009 5:55 pm Link

    It seems Mousavi has the backing of the State Department.

    Interesting that when there are plans to financially help Iranian opposition it’s quickly shut down as interfering with internal matters, but when a “reformist” candidate, Mousavi receives backing from the State it’s perfectly OK.

    From FDI: According to Saeed Behbehani of MihanTV, a U.S. government emissary met in Dubai two weeks ago with Mehdi Khazali, campaign manager for Mir Hossein Mousavi, bringing assurances of U.S. government support for his campaign.

    http://www.iran.org/

    — Babak
  5. 5. June 10, 2009 6:14 pm Link

    Ahmadinejad was popular long before his western media coverage began. He is a smart and educated man who had to defend his land when we forced the Iraq war on him. He lives a simple life, believes in fairness and justice, and is tenacious in defending his nations rights. If you dislike the fact that his popularity is growing in the west, then blame it on ourselves. The more we demonize him and publish misquotes as a tool to cator to the hawkish idiology of a minority in our society, the more his popularity and stature will grow because truth will always prevail.

    — Observer
  6. 6. June 10, 2009 6:30 pm Link

    According to commonly accepted history, Mossadegh was elected by a 5-1 majority of the lower house of parliament, though, like the PM of the UK, he was selected by the Shah. The parliament (Majlis) itself was subject to elections abet with limited franchise. Though certainly not a fully democratic system in the 21st century sense, the Iranian early post-war system was about as democratic at 19th century UK. It was certainly more democratic than anything else in the neighborhood, save Israel and Lebanon.

    And Mossadegh was certainly disposed of by Western intelligence services. Recall, the Shah had actually fled the country and had to be manhandled by the Dulles brothers into resuming power.

    — J. Wiley
  7. 7. June 10, 2009 8:12 pm Link

    Ahmadinejad could be defeated. Iranian people have the right and privilege to choose their leader which most of the US’s Muslims allies do not have. They are showing more maturity in choosing their leader than the Israelis . Also the voters who chose Bush two times many learn from the Iranians.

    — Muhammad
  8. 8. June 10, 2009 8:44 pm Link

    Its very cool to see people voicing their opinions publicly and having a chance to vote.

    — Mike H
  9. 9. June 10, 2009 9:51 pm Link

    If Ahmadinejad is so popular and a champion of democracy, why does his intelligence service make videos to convince the people that the west is plotting to topple his government? Why does he need to block periodically websites used by his rivals (facebook, etc.)? Why can’t he allow an independant media?

    — scott
  10. 10. June 11, 2009 8:21 am Link

    Being in Tehran, I have never seen such a remarkable political atmosphere as I have seen in Iran over the last week. With the intensely fierce (and downright mean) televized debates, mass street parties, and saturation of the election on everyone’s minds, the Iranian elections this time around make the US elections look like a tea party.

    — Rochelle
  11. 11. June 11, 2009 9:40 am Link

    i was pleased to see that on the Ministry of Intelligence’s (?) public service infomercial, Iranian wives are encouraged to rat out their husbands. Loyalty to one’s political regime should always come before loyalty to one’s family. Don’t you agree?

    — utagawa
  12. 12. June 11, 2009 11:06 am Link

    Whomever wins the elections, the fact remains that the people of Iran massively support their nuclear program and deeply resent foreign interference in their affairs. And, Iranian presidents are not in charge of the nuclear programs anyway, as Iran’s nuclear program started under the Shah, with the encouragement and support of the United States, because it makes economic and strategic sense for Iran.

    — hass
  13. 13. June 11, 2009 11:10 am Link

    BTW the Intelligence Ministry’s video is not far from the mark. There was in fact an effort by the US to replicate the overthrow of the Serbian regime in Iran too by teaching dissidents the methods used to bring down Milosevic. However, this was exposed.
    See
    http://www.the-diplomat.com/edition.aspx?eid=181

    — hass
  14. 14. June 11, 2009 12:14 pm Link

    I find it interesting that Ahmadinejad’s supporters seem to be very similar to the former supporters of Bush, Cheney, McCain, Palin and Co. Could he have hired Carl Rove on the sly?

    Ahmadinejad’s supporters are accusing their opponent of a lack of patriotism and of being a “secret Westerner” (as in Obama being a “secret Muslim”). Ahmadinejad’s diplomatic isolation is also quite similar to Mr. Bush’s “go it alone” policy. And Ahmadinejad could have taken a page out of Carl Rove’s book in accusing his opponent of trying to undermine the “government”. As with the right wing in this country, Ahmadinejad’s supporters in Iran seem to see any dissent as subversion (of course now that Obama is in power, it is no longer “subversion” but “resistance”).

    It should be very interesting to see the outcome of this election. I wonder, what is the Iranian equivalent of Florida? - it might be that close. If the Iranian Revolutionary Guards play a role in the recount, it might give a whole new meaning to the term “hanging Chad”.

    — RonM
  15. 15. June 11, 2009 12:55 pm Link

    I agree with RonM, above. The parallels between Ahmedinejad’s tactics and recent GOP tactics are stirring–the use of religion and fear as goading tools and an attempt (failed) to play the cities against town and country..

    — DOS
  16. 16. June 11, 2009 1:47 pm Link

    President Obama correctly described Dr. Mossadegh’s government as “democratically elected” during his speech in Egypt. In fact, the Majles, which is the Iranian Parliament, voted overwhelmingly to elect him as Prime Minister in 1951. He was enormously popular with his countrymen, and is still regarded as an Iranian national hero. I highly recommend The Mossadegh Project for more information: http://www.mohammadmossadegh.com

    The Shah, on the other hand, was not elected by parliament or ballot, was illegally put into power by American and British secret intelligence services, and ruled for life with no referendum…your classic dictator.

    — Mark Davis
  17. 17. June 11, 2009 2:06 pm Link

    HOPEFULLY Moussavi is going to win tomorrow and the world is going to start paving the road to PEACE !!! Iran ( ex Persia) is a very beautiful, traditional and historical country. I’d love, as an american, to visit and enjoy the land and this people without going to jail as a spy !!! Good luck tomorrow for all the iranians in the world !!!

    — Virginia Nielsen in FLORIDA
  18. 18. June 11, 2009 2:25 pm Link

    Ahmadinejad ( cant believe you ppls spell it so many time…copy paste!) is just like BUSH…and the Iranians are just like Americans since they gonna vote Ahmadinejad/BUSH out …

    — shawn
  19. 19. June 11, 2009 7:21 pm Link

    Scott:

    “If Ahmadinejad is so popular and a champion of democracy, why does his intelligence service make videos to convince the people that the west is plotting to topple his government? Why does he need to block periodically websites used by his rivals (facebook, etc.)? Why can’t he allow an independant media?”

    Because indeed the Apartheid in state of Palestine and the US are aggressively trying to undermine him.

    No Iranian leader since late, may he rest in peace, Doctor Mossadegh, has so boldly resisted the unjust and unlawful pressure from West and has so valorously defended Iran’s unalienable rights to advancements in technology and independence.

    The west and notably the apartheid in state of Palestine are gravely concerned and fearful the seeds of Iran’s independence and disobedience might spread in the region with incalculable consequences, both in terms of national interests and Geo-politically.

    the stability of west is tantamount to the status quo in the region and upsetting the status quo in ME would undermine the West’s enduring.

    — Faramarz Fathi
  20. 20. June 12, 2009 2:41 am Link

    As I recall, Ahmadinejad was elected during the time Bush, Cheney, and Co. were calling Iran an “Axis of Evil” , and making other threatening remarks. From some American far right corners came talk of bombing Iran. So I don’t find it so surprising that the Iranians elected a tough talking hardliner like Ahmadinejad. Let’s hope things are different this time around.

    — Kaari
  21. 21. June 15, 2009 4:46 pm Link

    Moussavi is no different than Ahmadinejad, but people using Moussavi as an excuse to demand freedom and a way to break free from 30 years of dictatorship.

    This is truly the only way, the average poor Iranians can succeed in bringing change. The main issue going forward would be a true leadership in Iran that is not so backward and Islamic.

    The thirty-year long Islamic dictatorship has remained in power through religion. Any country or system based on religion is doomed. The regime would not last as the history is the proof.

    The Middle Eastern countries are the only countries in the world that are still dealing with suppression and they have to put up with the manmade religions.

    The fabric of the Iranian culture has been destroyed in the last 30 years. In the name of religion majority of the young under 30-35 year olds are drug addicts and prostitution has become a way of life.

    I hope the best for the people in Iran and wish one day we can bring back the true Persian culture without the element of any religion. People do not need an intermediary to believe in the GOD of nature and universe

    The only Persian religion is GOOD Thoughts, GOOD Actions and, GOOD WORDS.

    — Reza
  22. 22. June 15, 2009 5:01 pm Link

    You do not have to worry about the west if people of Iran in Iran are educated. The failure of Iranians in the last few decades comes from lack of education and elements of religion.

    Take away the religion, everything else will workout. This process has already started thanks to Internet.

    — Reza
  23. 23. June 20, 2009 5:03 pm Link

    What Ayatollah Ali Khamenei should have said was, “Look this is not FLORIDA, NOT John Kerry George Bush Election….we cannot spend months counting pregnant chads or even hanging chads….and when we get through George wins anyway…so let us go forward and in the next election you can show your determination by voting for a Barack candidate, in the end you will get what you want…….Now…let us go home and be happy….

    — Judy
  24. 24. June 21, 2009 8:56 am Link

    This is much like the Civil Righs Movement. They will become a Democracy but it will take many years and sacrafice. The old will die off and the educated youth will pursue freedom.

    — Judy
  25. 25. June 21, 2009 12:51 pm Link

    I wonder how much we’re (the u.s.) is behind the demonstrations?

    — roger faires

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