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March 19, 2010

Our "Populist" Democratic Party

By Armed Liberal at 05:31

In case you wonder why I worry that my Democratic leadership can't manage to get in gear with the public...
But the FEC data suggest plenty of wealthy donors continued to support Democrats with their checkbooks, at least through December.

The Democratic National Committee, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee together took in more than $37.3 million from donors who gave $10,000 or more during the year, the FEC data show. On the GOP side, donors at the same level gave less than $15.6 million to the Republican National Committee, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee combined, the data show.

The overall money race is much closer, with Democratic committees raising $141 million and the GOP close behind at $137.6 million. The Democratic committees, in other words, got more than twice as much of their individual contributions from big donors as Republicans did.

The contrast was particularly sharp between the DNC, which received 60 percent of its money from donations of less than $200, and the RNC, which took in nearly 80 percent of its receipts from the smallest donors. The RNC still edged out the DNC by $4 million in total money raised from individuals.
Large donors, in my view, tend to be 'investors' in government more than simply fans...what will it take to grow a Democratic Party that is connected to the $200 donors??
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  • Glen Wishard: Years ago the philosopher Robert Nozick asked: why don't unions read more
  • Foobarista: The Dems haven't been the party of the "little guy" read more
  • charris208.myopenid.com: Total destruction. The Democratic Party has been the party of read more

March 18, 2010

It's All A Matter Of Perspective...

By Armed Liberal at 19:08
Check out this great video on publishing...
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March 17, 2010

Artificial Intelligence: The Mauldin Test

By Joe Katzman at 00:36

From John Mauldin's investment newsletter. I thought this rang true (link added):

"One participant [at the 7-day Singularity University event] suggested that in the future, as we get closer to true AI, computers should be tasked with designing the next generation of AI and computers. I pointed at that if we were to do so, then the Turing Test might not be the best way to determine if we had true artificial intelligence rather than just extremely sophisticated programs. I proposed the Mauldin Test. When a computer tells us that it no longer wishes to program a smarter computer, we will have arrived at the point of self-awareness and survival instinct. I suggest that is true AI. Just a thought."

UPDATE: Winds reader "Piercello" has been thinking along similar lines, into a full-blown theory that links intelligence to emotion.


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  • Joe Katzman: Nice refinement. read more
  • J Aguilar: ho ho ho ho that's good! If the computer simply read more

The Test Of All Knowledge Is Experiment

By Armed Liberal at 00:00

I tried to close the comment argument with Chris below, and actually liked what I'd written enough that I thought I'd promote it (slightly cleaned up) to a post...

If you're thinking that AGW will be conclusively proved or disproved in blogs you've got bigger issues than I can help you with.

What blogs can - and I believe have - done is to suggest that the emperor has no clothes. There's a world of difference between pointing out that standard accounting practices haven't been followed - and therefore we ought to recheck the books - and actually re-auditing GM's annual financial statement. It's unfair and unreasonable to suggest that people who point out a) also have a responsibility to do b), or the current books stand.

I do think that people are deluding themselves by suggesting that AGW is 'science' as we've practiced it for the last few centuries. There's an epistic problem that comes from the fact that AGW is inherently a wicked problem - we can't run global climates in labs, over and over again and check what happens in the empirical world. There's no empiricism there.

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read the rest! »

  • Armed Liberal: Tom, you're right that nuclear weapons design today is entirely read more
  • Tom West: While I agree with the sentiment, I have to say read more
  • Joe Katzman: As a basic statement of what science must be, it's read more

March 15, 2010

Two Media Met In A Bar...

By Armed Liberal at 20:11

It was the best of Times...

Over at my work blog, I have a piece up on the latest way the LA Times (I think foolishly) trades audience credibility and goodwill for some ready cash. And give a useful counterexample.
So let's be clear - all media companies are struggling as both the basic models they operate under (online and offline) are challenged, and as the economy means they no longer have the cushion of good times.

Let's look at two responses to the problem.

The LA Times ran an ad that wrapped the front page for the film Alice In Wonderland; that was controversial, but what made it deeply controversial is that the ad was designed with copy and font to look like the Times' front page...with an ad layered on top of it.
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  • Tim Oren: On a technical note, a partial alternative to total ad read more
  • Joe Katzman: The response will always be more positive if you start read more

Why Won't AGW Believers Make Deals?? Or "I'd Rather Be Right..."

By Armed Liberal at 18:36

In the course of my comment back-and-forth with Chris a thought popped up that I wanted to share.

Why hasn't the AGW community lowered the claims to authority - moved the argument to behind-the-scenes work to clarify and improve the data and modeling behind their claims - and stepped forward from a policy point of view to find allies (people like me) who think we need to conserve energy for strategic, local environmental, or economic/financial reasons?

Why not take a partial win on policy?

I don't get it. Any thoughts??
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  • Joe Katzman: Tim (#16), I don't think your approach is a bad read more
  • Tim Oren: I'd also suggest taking about .01% of the potential graft read more
  • Joe Katzman: Demo's argument re: Type I/ Type II makes perfect sense read more

Sen. Kaufmann on Financial Services Reform

By Joe Katzman at 06:10

Sen. Ted Kaufmann [D-DE] lays out his position on financial sector reform, in a floor statement that I think is clearly argued. Which sounds like faint praise, but these days... it's a rarer commodity than I'd like.

Agree or disagree, you won't walk away wondering where he stands, or why.


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NJ Governor Christie: "I am Going to Do What Needs to be Done"

By Joe Katzman at 05:46

There's wishful thinking about guys like Jerry Brown, and then there's examples of people stepping up for real. New Jersey's new Republican governor Chris Christie, who has already been cited by Armed Liberal and roiled the waters with a spending freeze, lays it on the line in another extraordinary, and frank, speech:

YouTube Videos begin | HTML transcripts here.

It's not extraordinary in terms of the problems it outlines - public sector unions have created these problems in state after state, and California certainly understands the high taxes = tax base exodus phenomenon (for NJ, it's $70 billion in wealth over 4 years). But it's pretty extraordinary in terms of the stands it takes, and the clarity it brings. He spares neither side of the aisle.

In the end, we'll see more of this sort of thing. If not from current incumbents, from their eventual successors. Because there won't be a choice.


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Journalists - Crazies On The Left (And Right?)

By Armed Liberal at 05:21

So I tripped over this as I was surfing around last week, and flagged it for comment.

It's unexceptional hard-left cant:
There are no constraints left to halt America's slide into a totalitarian capitalism. Electoral politics are a sham. The media have been debased and defanged by corporate owners. The working class has been impoverished and is now being plunged into profound despair. The legal system has been corrupted to serve corporate interests. Popular institutions, from labor unions to political parties, have been destroyed or emasculated by corporate power. And any form of protest, no matter how tepid, is blocked by an internal security apparatus that is starting to rival that of the East German secret police. The mounting anger and hatred, coursing through the bloodstream of the body politic, make violence and counter-violence inevitable. Brace yourself. The American empire is over. And the descent is going to be horrifying.
I was going to just page away from it and shrug when I caught the author's byline:

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read the rest! »

  • Joe Katzman: Gotta say, crawling through Stormfront to look for author correlations read more

March 13, 2010

Six Years Ago Today - Our Saturday

By Armed Liberal at 16:47

rings.JPG


Me:

I chose this ring for you because it sparkles and is brilliant and because I hope that when you look at it every day, it will remind you of how I see you ... brilliant and sparkling and precious. But you are more dazzling to me than any jewel, and your love far more precious than gold. Take this ring as a token to remember forever that you are wonderful and that I am so lucky to be yours.

Her:

I present you with this ring because it symbolizes the unique and awesome person you are. You impress me in so many ways. You are my model of strength and determination. Yet, like the lovely swirls of gold and silver on this ring, everything in your life is touched with sweetness and compassion. I am lucky and happy to be a very important part of your life. Take this ring and my love and devotion.
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  • Grim: This will be our eleventh. Good years, with a good read more
  • kg2v: Congrats, may you and your bride have many more happy read more

March 12, 2010

How the Government Extinguished Silicon Valley

By Joe Katzman at 02:23

Over at The Futurist, "GK" laid out the 4 Horsemen in January 2009. All elements remain in place.

Meanwhile, the Wall St. Journal notes that VCs are having a difficult time. They may have avoided a 5th Horesman, however, depending on how the SEC and Senate define the Venture Capital funds that were finally excluded from the House and Senate versions of the new financial rules bill.


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  • GK: Thanks, Joe. All of Silicon Valley really is dependent on read more
  • Foobarista: Having spent 20 years working in various startups in the read more
  • Joe Katzman: Foobarista, I think you're half right. The part about the read more

March 11, 2010

Geek Fun

By Armed Liberal at 18:11

Littlest Guy is working on his school science project (making a calorimeter), and so he's starting to learn some of the basics of thermodynamics (it's hard to explain the difference between temperature and heat, isn't it?).

While he was digging he came up with this video, which he's been playing enough to be annoying.

So in the interests of making you annoyed too, I give you - the Large Hadron Collider rap video...


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  • Joe Katzman: Nice! read more
  • phantommut: If you're having problems with an explanation that might make read more
  • Joe Katzman: This was better than I expected it to be - read more
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