Those of us with memory recall how the Assad regime manipulated the Lebanese system and pit political players from each community against one another with every major turning point. Today's events are no different, though the moukhabarat has been replaced with Hizbullah. While Hizbullah was unsuccessful in breaching the Sunnis, they managed to break the Christian Maronites in half, and spooked the Druze—or at least their leader—into becoming a neutral if not negative force.
If you are still unclear on what the real issue is, then look no further than the archives of this very blog. This telecommunication ministry demand is nothing but Hizbullah working to keep its own illegal telecom network and spying efforts running. Aoun has become the paid defender of their interests: Hizbullah pays him by elevating him into a power figure. He successfully, thanks to Jumblatt's exit from March 14, managed to change the subject and make the discussion about him, and not Hizbullah.
While this suits the self-centered Aoun, this does not bode well for the country. Several key issues are not being discussed, at least not in the open. Paramount among them is Hizbullah's weapons. Aoun's charades somehow made that issue seem insignificant or appear "divisive", until the patriarch brought it up again. Sfeir's statement was a reminder to all, that while they were busy playing by Aoun's rules, a significant issue was being overlooked. Why can't that issue also be a hot issue, given what happened when Hizbullah invaded Beirut and the Chouf, using weapons it claimed were meant for the resistance?
Has March 14, or, as they choose to call it these days, "the parliament's majority", become so emasculated that it cannot even set the topic of discussion? Who is going to protect the people who elected the majority to parliament? If Aoun gets his ministries, will people become safer? Will the rule of law apply to Hizbullah, the SSNP and the extremists that are being fluffed by a decrepit Assad regime?
One can easily blame Jumblatt for putting his weapons down, and choosing the path of "national dialogue" and the new emerging "Arabo-Iranism". But the man is getting old. And he has no real support from outside—an unfortunate requirement for Lebanese politicians. With Europe, the United States and some Arab countries thinking they could "engage" the Assad regime or at least force a divorce between Assad and Ahmadinejad, Jumblatt is left with no real political backing for himself and his community. So he has convinced himself that the old path was right, and that the March 14 days were a wrong detour. At least the old is predictable. Ships never came to stop Hizbullah from invading his commune and that of his friends, and he had no desire to wage war at this old age.
This is not to offer excuses for his behavior, but just to remind ourselves that March 14, just as "March 8", was doomed to failure without some consistent and strong external support. The Lebanese formula and the situation in the country dictate it. The Lebanese are too stuck in their uncivil ways to form an effective movement that could change this formula overnight. Think of Hizbullah's occupation of downtown Beirut: the message was clear: we can counter your popular movement with the same, even if our people are farm animals to your sexy hippies.
Sadly, at the end of the day, and from this vantage point, this isn't about Lebanon. There are far more important issues in the eyes of the big players. It's a sad realization: Lebanon's independence is dependent on the generosity of others. Freethinking is slave to a massive delusion stemming from conspiracy theories, unrealized dreams, and contagious bloodshed.
Perhaps one day a new generation will manage to find a new way out. Until that happens, I think the Lebanese owe it to themselves to not let red herrings like Aoun steal the show.
Oh how I miss your posts! You are more wise in your logic and knowledge than all our politicians put together in Lebanon!
I nominate you for Lebanon's next President - may God Bless you.
Posted by: Antanios Harb | Saturday, November 07, 2009 at 10:37 PM
(Daily Star) The Maronite patriarch expressed on Thursday regret that the outcome of the June 7 parliamentary elections wasn’t being respected in the attempts to form a cabinet, as politicians from rival camps continued to react to recent rhetoric from Bkirki. “I feel regret that the winners in the June 7 elections [haven’t turned out to be] winners, while the losers [haven’t turned out to be] losers,” said Cardinal Nasrallah Butros Sfeir.
Sfeir’s recent statements provoked a heated debate among parties of the majority and the opposition as March 14 officials voiced support for the patriarch while opposition figures slammed Sfeir’s statements questioning the latter’s motives.
Sfeir said last week the minority and majority could not coexist in the same cabinet, adding that the issue of “weapons” is a pivotal concern that cannot be faced with silence, a reference to Hizbullah and the resistance.
On Wednesday, the Council of Maronite Bishops said it adopted Sfeir’s stances as its own with regard to Lebanon’s domestic political issues.
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Sfeir has a habit of being a day late and dollar short. He sounds the alarm only after the fire has burnt down to a smoldering pile of rubble.
(Now Lebanon) In a statement issued by Hezbollah on Friday, opposition leaders have agreed to form a national-unity government in line with the outcome of negotiations held by Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri.
Hezbollah’s statement expressed hope that such a step will benefit Lebanon.
This development indicates the opposition agrees with Hariri’s proposed distribution of portfolios among the parties, and the cabinet formation based on a 15-10-5 formula - which grants the majority 15 ministers, the opposition 10 and the president five.
Hariri’s government-lineup proposal reportedly gives the Change and Reform bloc the Telecommunications, Tourism and Industry portfolios, as well as a state ministry and the Energy Ministry - to be headed by Telecom Minister Gebran Bassil.
There is also word the portfolios of Foreign Affairs, Health and the Youth and Sports Ministry are going to the Development and Liberation bloc.
As for the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc, its ministerial share reportedly includes the portfolios of Agriculture and Administrative Development.
Friday’s meeting of opposition leaders was attended by Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Speaker Nabih Berri, Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun and Marada Movement leader MP Sleiman Franjieh, as well as Development and Liberation bloc MP Ali Hassan Khalil, Hezbollah secretary general’s political aide Hussein Khalil, Telecommunications Minister Gebran Bassil and Hezbollah’s head of security Wafik Safa.
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The art of deal. How fortunate for Saad that Hezbollah has finally agreed with him that Hezbollah should get everything it wants.
“I feel regret that the winners in the June 7 elections [haven’t turned out to be] winners, while the losers [haven’t turned out to be] losers,” said Cardinal Nasrallah Butros Sfeir.
Perhaps the good Patriarch simply doesn't understand history as re-written by Micho...
(Now Lebanon) In an interview with As-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper published on Saturday, Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun said he does not fear Hezbollah in Lebanon or any desire to implement the Iranian concept of Wilayat al-Faqih – the rule of the jurisprudent.
“It is impossible to reach Wilayat al-Faqih, because the Shia in Lebanon do not want this concept and not enough of the population would allow it,” he said.
On the Hezbollah-FPM memorandum of understanding, Aoun said Hezbollah has a different “political pattern” and different priorities than those of the FPM. However, he said the document establishes an understanding about security and defense and paves the way for reform.
Aoun stressed that Hezbollah’s weapons have never harmed any domestic party in its 27 years of existence.
Aoun also said al-Qaeda assassinated former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005 and criticized the international investigation into the case saying that, had it carried out its job correctly, it would have reached a result.
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You see, it is all clear now. May 7 never happened and AQ killed Rafik Hariri. End of discussion.
And the Francop had no weapons, either.
(Naharnet) The crew of a ship intercepted by Israel has denied that the vessel was carrying Iranian weapons destined for Hizbullah, security sources told An Nahar newspaper.
According to the source, Israel would have arrested Francop's crew if it had found arms aboard the ship. The Jewish state should have also called for an international probe into the incident if its allegations were true, the source told An Nahar.
Francop entered on Friday Lebanese waters where authorities are questioning its crew, the army said.
"The Francop ship entered Lebanese territorial waters at noon today and, upon its arrival off Beirut port, the navy in cooperation with U.N. naval forces searched the vessel," an army communiqué said.
"Military intelligence began interrogating the crew on the motives for the seizure of the vessel while the concerned authorities... will take all the necessary measures to ensure it does not carry banned goods," it said.
Israel said the ship which it intercepted around 100 nautical miles from the Israeli coast overnight Wednesday was carrying "hundreds of tons" of weapons.
Israeli media reported the military tracked the containers from Iran to the Egyptian port of Damietta, where they were transferred onto the German-owned Francop vessel en route to Syria.
However, the security sources told An Nahar that investigation carried out by the Lebanese army intelligence on Friday showed that the vessel was heading from Iran to Syria with foodstuff on board and stopped in Damietta. Then it continued its journey to Syria before being stopped by Israel.
The sources wondered why Israel didn't seize the ship's cargo in Damietta if it was carrying weapons as the Jewish state alleges.
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That is some Lebanese "security source" there. "The crew" denies so 'nuff said.
In other news...
(Naharnet) "The threat from their own people is the only leverage that will matter, on the nuclear issue especially, much more so than endless rounds of failing diplomacy," [Crown Prince] Pahlavi said.
However, he said the international community must show their support for the protesters challenging Ahmadinejad's regime.
"If they are holding up signs in English on the streets of Tehran it is not to practice their language skills, it is obviously meant for the outside world," he said.
If this support is not forthcoming, "we may as well run up the white flag on the nuclear threat. We have a window of opportunity", he said, adding that for people in Israel this was a "matter of life and death".
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For the people of Lebanon, too. But, then, in Lebanon, no price is too high for the cause so no one needs to bother with what any individual Lebanese thinks, wants, hopes for.
Posted by: fubar | Sunday, November 08, 2009 at 08:59 AM
Since everyone else is impotent (or acts that way), why shouldn't the U.S. simply recognize Hezbollah as the true government of Lebanon?
Posted by: Solomon2 | Sunday, November 08, 2009 at 11:59 AM
Great post and analysis as usual AK...From the declared results of the ministers that have been alloted to the village idiot we can clearly see that the delay was not because of the madman. Three of the five ministers are for Tashnag, Marada and SSNP...FPM gets one and aoun gets one(Gigi).
Solomon as for USA recognizing HA as the true government; I think Israel and HA would not want that; would they? That will restrict their ability to 'operate"...
Posted by: danny | Monday, November 09, 2009 at 12:38 PM
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates, Nov. 17 (UPI) -- Arab states, particularly in the Gulf, are seeking to build up their air power and missile defenses to counter any challenge from Iran.
Mostly they're looking to their traditional arms suppliers in the West, the United States, Britain and France, but Russia is pushing hard for a piece of the action.
This year's biennial Dubai air show, which opened Sunday in the United Arab Emirates, provided a showcase for the latest technology on offer.
Air power has been the deciding factor in most Middle Eastern conflicts since the 1967 Arab-Israeli conflict, when Israeli warplanes annihilated the air forces of Egypt, Syria and Jordan, largely on the ground, in pre-emptive strikes at the outset.
And for the Gulf states that lie across the waterway from Iran, air power and their ability to counter the Islamic republic's ballistic missile arsenal will be crucial in any conflict that erupts.
"Acquisition of the best air assets as politically and economically feasible -- be these fighter aircraft, helicopters, transports or unmanned aerial vehicles -- has thus become a priority in the Middle East," an analysis by Germany's Defense Professionals group concluded.
It stressed that the six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council -- Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain -- have given top priority to building up their air power.
"Political decision-makers in the region are acutely aware of the importance of air assets and the need to upgrade them with better firepower and/or expanded numbers whenever required," it said.
The combined air strength of the Gulf Arab states greatly outnumber the Iranian air force, which has suffered tremendously from U.S.-led arms embargoes on the Islamic republic over the last 30 years.
However, air power is needed not only as a deterrent but as a critical element to counter Iran's overwhelming strength on the ground if hostilities erupt, with GCC energy industries a key target.
The GCC states, along with Egypt and Jordan, are the recipients of U.S. military systems worth more than $20 billion under a package unveiled by President George W. Bush in 2007 to bolster Arab capabilities against Iran's nuclear program and its expansionist policies.
Under this they will be able to acquire advanced systems, some of them long denied Arab states because of Israeli opposition, such as the Patriot air-defense missile, the over-the-horizon AMRAAM air-to-air missile as well as fighter upgrades and electronic systems that outclass anything Iran is known to have.
The United Arab Emirates, one of the world's major oil producers, has built up an impressive air strength that rivals the Saudi air force and is currently spending $3.3 billion of the Patriot system manufactured by the Raytheon company of Massachusetts.
U.S. government-to-government arms sales rose 4.7 percent in 2008 to a record $38.1 billion and are expected to total about the same this year, the Pentagon announced Nov. 7.
Among the top buyers were the United Arab Emirates with $7.9 billion, Saudi Arabia with $3.3 billion, Egypt with $2.1 billion and Iraq with $1.6 billion.
Leading U.S. arms manufacturers Lockheed Martin Corp., the Boeing Co., Northrop Grumman Corp., Raytheon and the General Dynamics Corp are all seeking to boost sales in the Middle East to counter U.S. budget cuts that are likely to slow big-ticket purchases by the Pentagon.
Iran has sought to counter the air and missile threat, not just from the United States and Israel but the GCC states as well, with Russian air-defense systems.
The Saudis, apparently with the encouragement of Washington, have offered Moscow an arms-buying package worth more than $2 billion if it tears up a 2007 contract to supply Iran with the advanced S-300PMU air-defense system, considered one of the most effective in operation.
So far, the Russians have held up deliveries, much to Tehran's annoyance. The Saudis are offering to buy the S-400 air-defense system, successor to the S-300 and far more dangerous, along with tanks and other systems if Moscow plays ball.
That would crack open the lucrative Gulf arms market for the Russians. If the Americans have indeed agreed to Riyadh's offer to Moscow, it demonstrates just how far they are prepared to go to ensure that Iran is contained.
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Dubai, 17 Nov. (AKI) - A European consortium set up to build the Typhoon fighter jet expects global demand to hit 300 over the next 20 years, with the Gulf Arab region yielding the biggest potential growth. Eurofighter chief executive Enzo Casolini made the prediction at the Dubai Air Show on Tuesday.
"We estimate the market for fighter jets globally is 800 in 20 years," Enzo Casolini told reporters.
"For Eurofighter, we target 300 global export contracts. It could vary from 50 to 100 Eurofighters depending on how optimistic I am."
Casolini said Eurofighter, a consortium comprising Italian aerospace giant Finmeccanica, Britain's BAE Systems and the European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Company, had seen steady demand from the Gulf Arab states.
He added that the company expected an order backlog of 25 billion euros (37 billion dollars) by the end of the year and revenues of 4 billion euros (6 billion dollars).
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are moving to upgrade their respective air forces, as well as missile defence and naval forces, amid growing international concern about Iran's nuclear ambitions.
In 2007, Eurofighter signed a 7.25 billion dollar deal with Saudi Arabia for 72 Eurofighter Typhoon warplanes.
Casolini said the Middle East would account for one third of Eurofighters in operation in 20 years.
But he declined to predict how long it would take to sell as many as 100 new aircraft.
Finmeccanica has adopted a high profile at the Dubai Air Show after it sealed a partnership agreement in the high tech aeronautics sector with the Abu Dhabi-based Mubadala Development Company in October last year.
The Italian company has predicted strong growth in the UAE market because of the country's unprecedented economic and industrial diversification and it opened an office in Abu Dhabi last year.
Finmeccanica's subsidiaries have had partnerships with UAE companies for several years and the company has been selected by the Emirate's navy to supply naval and underwater systems for a new class of ship.
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Beirut Nov. 17 (Naharnet) -- A Russian military delegation arrives in Beirut Tuesday to inspect air bases at Lebanon's three airports in Beirut, Riaq and Qleiat and access their appropriateness to receive and run MiG-29s being donated by Russia.
Al-Markazia news agency, which carried the report, said the delegation will also inspect Lebanese army logistic brigades and units as well as a number of institutions and military academies.
The delegation, which will stay till Nov. 26, is scheduled to meet senior Lebanese military officers.
The report said the first batch, comprising two of 10 MiG-29 aircrafts, would arrive in Beirut soon.
In a related development, press reports said the first batch of Puma helicopters donated by the United Arab Emirates to the Lebanese army is likely to arrive at the beginning of the New Year.
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Seriously, the MiGs will be totally useless to Lebanon. They are old and expensive to maintain. It's not like the Lebanon is going to go head to head with the Israel so the only thing the MiGs represent is a time limited opportunity for Lebanese chest thumping until the next Israeli first wave targeting.
Lebanon needs helicopters. Think border surveillance and security, quick reaction force movement, and aerial domination of the country for internal security, not to mention the occasionally necessary fire fighting capability, just to name a few of Lebanon's needs.
Lebanon needs all the helicopters it can get ... so Lebanon gets MiGs. At some point you have to wonder when the LAF is going to start thinking strategically.
Posted by: fubar | Tuesday, November 17, 2009 at 11:24 PM
"It's not like the Lebanon is going to go head to head with the Israel..."
My bad. Dumbing it down missed the mark and morphed into just dumb.
It's not like Lebanon is going to go head to head with Israel...
Much better.
Posted by: fubar | Tuesday, November 17, 2009 at 11:30 PM
Well, to be fair, the Brits do say "the Lebanon". :)
Posted by: Umm K. | Wednesday, November 18, 2009 at 08:48 PM
{chuckle} Really, you are too kind, lurking Lady.
When are you going to kick AK in the butt and get him posting here again? Busy schedule aside, it is still bad form to leave the field when your side is getting trounced. It's game on until the fat sayyed sings.
Posted by: fubar | Thursday, November 19, 2009 at 12:01 AM
I'm trying! AK is insanely busy and really wants to blog (I think)...I'll keep kicking. He appreciates all the extremely patient and loyal readers, that's for sure.
Posted by: Umm K. | Thursday, November 19, 2009 at 02:19 PM
Folks, a long time ago, when war on Hizballa was being Israel by the Bush administartion, I told you that the Israelis would not go alone except if they had the IRON SHIELD in place and had tested it. At the time, the USA had invited the Israelis to Arizona for a live test of the weapon system. It failed and Israel walked away. Even with the US committing major navy back up, the Israelis didn't think they were ready.
Folks, the system has been installed and is functional, although the Israelis are playing it down. The Israelis will be ready very shortly for a war. A war, I might suggest, that the western leaders (Including Sarkosy - see his response to Hariri) have been breifed on. This may be the summer to visit elsewhere than Beirut.
Posted by: Min Canada | Sunday, January 24, 2010 at 10:55 AM