Polls for the Louisiana Governor's race slated for fall 2011 have been rare so far, with conventional wisdom dictating that incumbent Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal is the runaway favorite in this red state.
A new poll is out, however, from Republican pollster Market Research Insight (though it appears to have been conducted for "a group of business people", and not the Jindal campaign).
The poll shows decent but unspectacular numbers for Jindal:
Market Research Insight (R) for "a consortium of business interests". 1/10-14. Registered voters. MoE 4%.
Reelect Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) 49
Prefer someone else 40
Forty percent is more or less the functional Democratic baseline in Louisiana; that's about what John Kerry and Barack Obama received in their presidential bids. Meanwhile the upper 40s is about where the Republican baseline is when everything goes right for the Democrats; GOP candidates received 49%, 48% and 46% in each of Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu's three victorious races, and 48% when former Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco won in 2003.
So this poll isn't wholly surprising...unless you compare it to Jindal's once-stratospheric approval ratings. While pollsters once had Jindal's approval in the mid-70s, his current numbers indicate he's slid back to being a generic Republican.
Which, in Louisiana, isn't a bad place to be. It's just not completely safe, and it might be a touch early for Jindal to start burnishing his credentials for his expected 2016 presidential run. Rather, he might want to prevent his home-state approval from falling any more than it already has.
Pollster Verne Kennedy noted:
Two issues at least partly responsible for the decline in the governor’s popularity are the budget deficit and critics claiming he does not work well with the State Legislature. If Jindal’s popularity continues to fall because of these and other issues, he could see a number of opponents.
The Republican pollster also tested Jindal against two live opponents, though their choices were a bit odd. They tested Democratic Mayor of New Orleans Mitch Landrieu (who isn't running, but is one of the state's most popular Democrats), and Democrat-turned Republican former Treasurer John Kennedy.
Jindal does better here than in the generic ballot question:
Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) 51
Mitch Landrieu (D) 25
John N. Kennedy (R) 10
Jindal leads substantially even though, as pollster Kennedy notes, Landrieu is far more popular than he is:
New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu has high name recognition statewide (93 percent) and a much higher ratio of voters holding a favorable opinion compared to an unfavorable one (5.1 to 1) than Jindal (2.2 to 1). However, it is obvious that voters want Landrieu to continue the good job he is doing in New Orleans, at least for now.
I'd chalk it up to more Louisiana voters being Republicans than Democrats, rather than to voters wanting Landrieu to stay in New Orleans, personally. Regardless, Landrieu isn't going to run.
What's missing from this poll is a good analysis of what a challenge from the right might do to Jindal's reelection chances, rather than two challenges from his left. The pollster speculates on such a challenge, but doesn't actually test it:
Although not tested in the survey, the Tea Party, which did well in 2010 congressional elections, could become a factor if Jindal were opposed by a popular and well-funded Democrat. A Tea Party candidate would pull much more from Jindal’s Republican base than from a Democrat, potentially putting the governor in a runoff election.
It would be interesting to see how Jindal does in a jungle primary against a Tea Party candidate, John Kennedy, and a relatively strong Democratic candidate.