Competitive banking
Competition between banks might make financial stability harder to achieve. But there is still a lack of theoretical argument or empirical evidence to show whether having a large number of smaller banks would strengthen or weaken the financial system. Join the debate

Tea with Thaksin
Thaksin Shinawatra was prime minister of Thailand from 2001 until his ousting in a military coup in 2006. He now lives in exile in Dubai, from where he is backing the main opposition party, Pua Thai, in the run-up to elections in July. He spoke to us about his role in Thai politics today

United States: Emotion, reason and policy
Sentiment dominates judgment so thoroughly that even Kant would have had a hard time writing dispassionate public policy

United States: Considering Rick Perry
The governor of Texas is mulling a run for the Republican nomination

Britain: The best hope for the underclass
A debate on the left offers a backhanded endorsement for the Big Society

Asia: The high cost of lending
A Chinese tycoon in Inner Mongolia who set himself on fire in April left behind almost $200m in private debt

Asia: Low road through the Himalayas - TO COME
Nepal’s peace process has brought a windfall of aid money, but much is still being lost through corruption

Middle East: Access denied
A correspondent reports from Homs on how doctors in Syria are struggling to take care of those injured in the protests

Africa: The Economist Asks
Is it more important to improve Africa’s infrastructure or its governance?

Business: Where to go for an IPO
Research shows that firms react to weak institutions at home by listing abroad

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Culture: A social revolution
Women in China have long been silenced or sidelined—if they weren’t smothered at birth. But now a booming economy has transformed their lives

Business travel: The offset option
Environmentally minded passengers still struggle to offset their flights

In the evening, the young man whose house I visited earlier in the week asks to meet up again. He brings a friend this time, a quiet university student who is armed with a CD of more videos and photos. "You cannot imagine how free it feels just to protest", he says. But he is worried about rising sectarian hatred in the city. Some Alawites have been mobilised to help the regime. He claims, as many do, that Alawite gangs such as the shabeeha are being armed and are helping to break up protests (he recognises their accent, he says, with its hard "q"). "It is really dangerous. There was no sectarian problem before and they [the regime] are making one.” His Alawite and Christian friends—all of whom are scared—agree, he says. But he is adamant the protesters have to push on. "My father always shushed me when I'd talk about the government and I didn't know why," he says. "Now we can talk, we can speak of the corruption at every government office, the corruption and bribes taken for everything at university, how army and government officials get cars while we can't get jobs. Mohammed Bouazizi [whose self-immolation sparked Tunisia's uprising] gave us an opportunity and we have to take it, whatever the risks."

Young men like him are becoming ever more determined in their opposition to the regime. But those who have not joined the protests, though they may dislike the government in equal measure, are becoming more frightened. In shops in Homs, some profess to prefer stability to reform, anxiously pointing to Iraq and Lebanon as examples of what can go wrong. Opinion in Syria, and reporting on it, has become increasingly polarised, with accusations of exaggeration flying on both sides. Protests are probably more limited than in Egypt and Tunisia though the percentage of the population out on the street may be the same. Protesters are pushing on despite the regime's violent response. But others, scared of death, repression and the prospect of an increasingly violent and sectarian conflict, are eager for life to return to normal. That seems increasingly unlikely.

Leaving Homs on a quiet day, we spot tanks rumbling down the highway and rattling trucks of soldiers on the move. Back in central Damascus, the sun is shining and all seems quiet. Syria is fragmented, trapped in holding pattern for now. What comes next is unclear. No one dares predict anything but a long, hard road ahead.

Protesters have to avoid state and military hospitals, he says. He repeats a story that is doing the rounds throughout the country, that members of the security forces come to hospitals and arrest the injured or finish them off. Some private hospitals, which he prefers not to name, have treated the injured, but they are often targeted too despite protesters' efforts to protect them. On Fridays it is even worse, he says; the authorities block off neighbourhoods so the wounded cannot be taken to hospital. "We had a hospital in the Giliani mosque, but the army and security found it and destroyed it," he explains. "Now we work through hospitals in people's homes—but it is not enough." Only simple emergency care can be given. People have been arrested at checkpoints for carrying medical supplies. One of his relatives, a pharmacist, was picked up a few days ago carrying gauze and saline solution. But the doctor continues to buy and distribute medicine and equipment; he could not bear to see someone die because there was nothing to stem their bleeding, he says.

Two incidents stand out in his mind. In one a man called Fawaz was shot in the leg. He could have been saved but he could not be got to hospital and bled to death. In another a man was shot in the chest. The bullet exited his back, leaving a huge hole. He thinks it was one of the exploding bullets which human-rights organisations have accused the government of using. The doctor, visibly frustrated, says he is at a loss to explain the lack of humanity. Those who try to retrieve the injured from the street are shot at. Someone has published a list online of doctors helping protesters, warning people not to go to them, as if it were a crime to be doing their job. Thank God, he says, he is not on it yet.

The problem now, he continues, is that some protesters have shot back. Two members of the security forces died in Baba Amro recently, shot by demonstrators. He tried to help them by going to their aid in a Red Crescent van, but security forces shot at this too. The army has been using these vehicles to infiltrate protests, he claims. Though the majority of protesters are peaceful, he worries that the violence will escalate.

Later he returns with another doctor who has been treating people who have been detained by the authorities, many bearing signs of torture. "I have seen burn marks, cuts, bruises, everything," he says. "There are terrible things going on inside." Stories from Damascus back him up. Men and women who have been detained there tell stories of being forced to strip and of being packed into tiny cells before being taken out for interrogations during which they are beaten or electrocuted.

Families are torn between wanting to let their sons—it is mainly young men—go to protest, and wanting to protect them. "I dread Fridays now," says one mother, smoking endless cigarettes and sipping coffee. "I agree with what my son is doing but he has seen things he shouldn't have seen, people shot in front of him. We say goodbye to him before he goes to Friday prayers and I never know if he will come home again in the evening." Her younger son, only 14 years old, now wants to join his brother.

ON MAY 30th Silvio Berlusconi’s conservative alliance took a fearful thrashing in the run-offs for mayor in some 90 Italian towns and cities. In Milan, Italy’s business capital, his party’s candidate came in more than 10 percentage points behind a local lawyer, Giuliano Pisapia, who was relatively unknown at the start of the contest. Once the result was known, tens of thousands of Mr Pisapia’s supporters, sporting t-shirts and balloons in his campaign’s orange theme colour, filled the city’s cathedral square to celebrate the end of almost 20 years of right-wing rule. The opposition to Mr Berlusconi did even better in Naples, where Luigi De Magistris, a former prosecutor representing the left, took more than 65% of the ballot.

Were these losses merely a predictable mid-term setback? Or do they spell the beginning of the end of Mr Berlusconi’s long career in Italian politics? The prime minister insisted that his government, which has repeatedly slashed public spending to contain its deficit, would go on as before. Several of his lieutenants argued it was only to be expected that sooner or later it would fall victim to protest votes. And Mr Pisapia is an archetypal protest candidate. He was not the choice of Italy’s biggest opposition group, the centre-left Democratic Party. Instead, he ran for the smaller and more radical Left, Ecology and Freedom movement.

Nevertheless, the vote in Milan should worry Mr Berlusconi for at least three reasons. First, the city has historically been a trend-setter. All sorts of movements—including Berlusconi-ism itself—have taken root in Milan before spreading to the rest of Italy. A further disturbing feature of the defeat for the prime minister is that it was so evidently personal. Milan is his home city. By putting himself on the slate of Letizia Moratti, a former minister, and saying the election was really a national one, he turned it into a de facto vote of confidence. The country’s billionaire leader lost not only Milan but also Arcore, the nearby town where he has his main private residence.

Perhaps the best reason for Mr Berlusconi to lose sleep, though, is not his own party’s wretched showing, but that of its coalition partner, the Northern League. Umberto Bossi’s eccentric movement, which combines regionalism with hefty doses of populism and Islamophobia, is vital to the government’s survival. Its poor showing in the first-round ballot persuaded many in his party that the time had come for it to sever its links with Mr Berlusconi’s People of Freedom (PdL) movement. The outcome of the second-round ballots, in one of which the League lost control of the north-eastern city of Novara, is likely to make that view more widespread. So far, Mr Bossi has given no hint of withdrawing his support from the government. But he may now ask a higher price for it.

A trip to Homs, an industrial city 100 miles north of Damascus, seemed worth the risk. It is is a microcosm of the rest of the country; Sunnis live alongside minority Christians and Alawites and tribal families rub shoulders with the poor and the educated elite. Largely ignored by foreign visitors but a lively hub of intellectual and café life, Homs has been subject to a heavy security and military crackdown in which scores have been killed since protests began in March. The worst came after a sit-in on April 18th at Clock Tower square. Tanks have now withdrawn to the outskirts of the city—lined up along the road to the restless villages to the north of Rastan and Telbiseh—but the atmosphere remains tense.

It is a pleasant town with glassy cafes next to old souqs and new concrete low-rise neighbourhoods. Bar the checkpoints, things seem normal. But dig a little deeper and there is much more to it. Introduced by a local friend to "safe" people in the city, the divisions between the protesters and the rest of the population are immediately apparent. The former have become an underground club.  The weather and family matters dominate conversations with acquaintances who cannot be trusted. With others who have been vouched for, talk turns to the latest demonstration or person to go missing. Suspicions of the Alawites, the sect to which the president, Bashar Assad, belongs, are frequently raised.

The government's opponents are more willing to talk than I had expected. "So much is happening that is not being seen; we've had no-one to tell," says one enthusiastic protester in his twenties, talking so fast it is hard to keep notes. I visit him in his house, a small ornate flat in the city suburbs. Small cups of cardamom-infused coffee, juice and biscuits are served immediately. Hospitality is not comprised, even in times of trouble. His mother, a slight woman, unveiled in the privacy of her house, is wary, anxious to check that none of their names or the location of their house will be disclosed. Her son, however, is so eager to talk.

He talks and talks, flitting between different stories: about what happened on April 18th when, he says, "many more were killed than the media knew about"; about small protests that have popped up and been put down; about his escape from security forces by jumping out of a third floor window and why he could not seek medical help for the bruises on his face; about friends plucked from protests who have not been heard from since; about how he does not believe that the president is calling the shots but rather Maher, his younger brother.

And then he returns to the night in Clock Tower square. "It was so amazing, you can't imagine," he says, smiling. It was the only event that has come close to the atmosphere of Tahrir Square in Egypt, a sight which inspired him and his friends. People set up tents and local restaurants provided food. Women and children had their own special areas. Alawites and Christians protested alongside each other. Then boof! At about two o'clock in the morning the security forces started shooting. The violence has continued since then.

We get back in the car to drive to the clock tower, past the old souqs and the Christian area of Hamidiyeh where protesters say they were given water. Boarded windows are the only sign of the trouble; it has been cleaned up well. We head to Bab Sbaa, a predominantly Sunni neighbourhood where demonstrations have been daily, but circle back after spying heavy checkpoints on the sandbagged corners and head for Baba Amro instead. Security forces at a impromptu checkpoint marked by a small minibus wave us by. We enter the area. It is not as badly shelled as news reports had suggested. The blown-out windows of a blue building at one of the street and a burnt patch of grass on a roundabout hint at the unrest. Members of the security forces apparently scrawled "We will die for you, Bashar" in graffiti and locals rubbed it out. At the other end of the street is a brightly coloured mall with its windows blown out but a hole in the wall already mended.

My host is keen to avoid the Alawite neighbourhoods but we drive past so he can point to the empty streets and shuttered windows. Many in these neighbourhoods and beyond appear to have fled. Next to Bab Tadmor, an area in the heart of the city, just metres away from the expensive cafés, children with matted hair and ragged clothes peep round black metal doorways in crumbling sandy-coloured streets.

This poverty was in part what inspired people to take to the streets, says a flushed 24-year-old man dressed in black jogging pants and a grey sweatshirt when we meet later in the evening. But now the spark is as much the brutal crackdown by the government as it seeks to crush dissent. His enthusiasm is palpable. "I wanted to wait a bit," he says. "But then we saw some people go out, saw the violence and saw what the state television was saying and it made us so angry." He adds: "I have seen amazing things you wouldn't believe, people shot dead, my 73-year-old uncle is missing and we have no idea where he is." He cannot forget one incident in particular: an 18-year-old man near him in a protest in Baba Amro was shot through the neck and the bullet came out of his head, blood spraying everywhere. He says he saw another shot through the chest by what he believes was an exploding bullet, leaving a huge hole in his back. Young men like him have no future in Syria he says. He describes himself a second-class citizen, left behind by others his age with jobs and families. A university graduate, he has no work and cannot afford to buy a house so that he can get married. He had, he says, no hope. Until now.

Monday 30th

South Africa's president, Jacob Zuma, visits Libya to hold further talks with General Muammar Gaddafi.
Argentina's president, Cristina Fernandez, visits Mexico.

Tuesday 31st	
The trial of Italy's prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, on charges of paying for sex with an underage teenager resumes in Milan.
India's south-west monsoon is expected to make landfall. GDP figures for Q4 are due the same day.
Wednesday 1st 

Bahrain is due to to lift its state of emergency.
The space shuttle Endeavour is due back at the Kennedy Space Center.
FIFA, the body that co-ordinates international football tournaments and stands accused of corruption, holds its annual meeting.
Fiji is due to issue new currency, minus Queen elizabeth's head.
Japan's prime minister, Naoto Kan, holds a parliamentary debate with the opposition, the first since the tsunami.
Friday 3rd

The deadline set by Spain's government for labour unions changes to collective bargaining expires.	
Saturday 4th

The 22nd anniversary of military crackdown on Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests will be remembered by a candlelight vigil in Hong Kong.
Sunday 5th

Peru's presidential election is decided in a run-off.
Portugal holds a general election. 	

Talking heads

Economist.com hosts three weekly discussions between correspondents: Money talks (on business and finance), Babbage (on science and technology) and The week ahead (on the news before it happens), as well as interviews with specialists that look beyond the headlines

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Middle East: Bibi goes to Washington

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WHEN President Nicolas Sarkozy was mulling over a reshuffle of his government last autumn and thinking of replacing his prime minister, one name that almost never surfaced was that of Christine Lagarde. To outsiders, this might seem surprising. France’s first female finance minister, and its longest-serving since 1974, has made a name in international circles as a widely respected and skilled professional. But there is something about her straight-talking, business-like approach that has never been fully appreciated by the score-settling, rumour-mongering world of French politics. It took her growing reputation abroad to finally win her respect at home.

This mix of Frenchness and internationalism is very much Ms Lagarde’s hallmark, and can be a source of tension. When she stepped off the plane from Chicago, where she was global president of Baker & McKenzie, a law firm, to join the government under President Jacques Chirac in 2005, almost her first public comment was to criticise the rigidity of France’s labour market. The French were horrified; Ms Lagarde carefully rephrased her thoughts, and an early lesson was learned about how far it is possible to bring economically liberal ideas into the French political debate.

Indeed, appointed finance minister in 2007 by Mr Sarkozy, Ms Lagarde has not hesitated to defend what she considers to be in French interests, such as the regulation of hedge funds or an international tax on financial transactions. This leads some commentators to wonder what her real convictions are, and whether she has sacrificed her more market-friendly instincts in order to forge a political career in statist France. Yet she has also quietly got on with some liberalising reforms. While dutifully pushing some of Mr Sarkozy’s dafter ideas abroad, she has also done a fair amount to try to inject more competition into the French economy (such as strengthening the anti-trust watchdog), and to boost public-sector efficiency (such as merging the job-placement and unemployment-benefit agencies).

Ms Lagarde’s main strengths are a mix of hard-working professionalism, an appetite for technical detail, and an ability to get her way with charm rather than bullying. She often seems more at ease at global summits than on the benches of the unruly French National Assembly. It is hard to find anybody who has worked for her in France over the years who has a bad word to say about her. As a teenager, she was a member of the French national synchronised swimming team, and she likes to joke that this taught her not only teamwork and self-discipline, but also how to hold her breath. Her quick wit, in fluent English as well as French, even managed to win over Jon Stewart when she appeared on the Daily Show, bearing a French beret as a gift. In the past she has said that there was “too much testosterone” in high-powered circles, a comment that now looks prescient.

At a news conference on May 25th, Ms Lagarde conceded that being European was not necessarily an asset for a candidate to run the IMF, but hoped that it would not be regarded as a handicap either. Her central role in dealing with the euro-zone debt crises, during which she has been a consistent advocate of bailing out debt-ridden governments, could put her in a potentially awkward position at the fund. More worrying for the French, there is an outstanding legal inquiry hanging over her.

A public prosecutor is investigating whether there is any ground for a full inquiry into a decision Ms Lagarde made as finance minister linked to a long-running damages case brought against the state by Bernard Tapie, a French tycoon. She ruled that it should be taken out of the courts and settled through an arbitration panel. As a result, Mr Tapie was awarded more than €200m ($280m) in damages. Ms Lagarde said today that she has a “clear conscience” over the referral. Her advisers say that she followed procedure, and was acting in taxpayers’ interests, as the court case was costing public money every year that it went unsettled. But the timing, in the wake of the arrest of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, is unfortunate. Right now, the French can ill-afford even the whiff of impropriety.

Such was the background to the decision, on May 24th, to refer the former president, his two sons and a fugitive billionaire associate to trial on criminal charges which may include murder. Last month Mr Mubarak and his sons, who spent the first weeks after their ouster in a secluded resort, were arrested in response to massive protests in Cairo's Tahrir Square. As their incarceration dragged on (the 83-year-old Mr Mubarak has been held in a hospital rather than prison), doubts arose as to the government's will to prosecute them. 

Not only did the generals, all of whom served most of their careers under the command of Mr Mubarak, himself a former general, show little sign of sharing the public's outrage over growing evidence of the former first family's gross abuses of power. The army's imposition of swift, draconian military justice on civilian activists, and its deployment of thuggish military police to quell protests, contrasted jarringly with the relatively mild treatment enjoyed by hated strongmen of Mr Mubarak’s regime. Although dozens of these men are in custody or under investigation, few have been sentenced and only one, a low-level police officer tried in absentia, has been convicted for his part in the killing of more than 800 people during January's unrest.

With much of the disparate movement that organised the revolution calling for another huge gathering in Tahrir Square on May 27th, Egypt's hesitant rulers again budged. Not only are the Mubaraks now certain to face trial, a development that is unprecedented in any Arab country. The government's apparent bid to stem public anger in advance of Friday's protest included the sacking of several top police officials and the amnestying of many civilians held in military prisons.

Such efforts to show good will are effective, up to a point. Many Egyptians have tired of the turbulence that has dogged the country since the fall of Mr Mubarak and would be content to let the soldiers rule in peace. Parts of the political spectrum, most glaringly Islamist groups, led by the powerful Muslim Brotherhood, have sought to score tactical gains by praising the military and condemning its detractors. Yet the protests will go ahead, nevertheless, if only because a broad spectrum of Egyptians has concluded that they are the only thing the generals listen to. This strange dialogue looks set to continue through a long, hot Egyptian summer.

At this morning’s press conference in Paris, Ms Lagarde acknowledged that there were concerns about having yet another European head of the IMF, but said that being European should be neither a "handicap, nor an asset". In other words, if she is considered to be truly the best candidate for the job, she shouldn't be disqualified only because she is European. It is not entirley clear what her level of support is among the BRICs. The French government has said that China supports her bid, though China’s executive director at the IMF seems to think otherwise. La grande confusion?

If, in a general election, the PP can repeat the 10% lead over the governing Socialists it won yesterday, Mr Rajoy should enjoy both an absolute parliamentary majority and a clear mandate for reform. Moreover, with yesterday's success, he not only has a clear sight on Madrid's Moncloa Palace, he has finally shaken off opposition to his leadership from within his own party.

The PP is now set to govern nine of Spain's 17 regional governments, and to have a say in the running of several more. As its mayors will also be in charge of 36 of Spain's 50 provincial capital cities, the party will be faced with one of Spain's thorniest problems—overspending in city halls and regional capitals. It has a model to follow in the PP-controlled Madrid regional government, which boasts the lowest deficit of all (although Madrid's PP-controlled city hall has one of the highest debts). With elections out of the way, the full size of the regional overspend should now become apparent.

The most dramatic event in yesterday's elections was the collapse in the Socialist vote. Mr Zapatero's party saw its support nationwide fall by 19% compared to local elections four years ago, against a PP rise of 7%. The Socialists lost control of traditional strongholds like the town halls of Barcelona and Seville, and the regional governments of Castilla La Mancha and Aragon.

After this clamorous rebuke, the Socialists must now set about the business of choosing a candidate to replace the unpopular Mr Zapatero, who announced in April that he would not lead his party into the general election. Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, the deputy prime minister, and Carme Chacón, the defence minister, are the front-runners to replace him, although both are Zapatero loyalists and neither represents anything new in policy terms.

An extra dimension in yesterday's vote was an explosion of support in the northern Basque country for a new radical separatist party, Bildu, which won 25% of the vote. Many people outside the Basque country see Bildu as the successor to Batasuna—a prohibited front party for Basque terrorist group ETA—although it formally disavows ETA's violence. (Bildu was banned from running in the local elections by the supreme court on May 1st, but the decision was overturned by the constitutional court.)

Optimists say Bildu's success will make it easier to persuade ETA, currently on what it calls a "permanent" ceasefire, to give up its arms and renounce violence for good. Pessimists, especially hawks in the PP, think the vote could encourage a buoyant ETA to harden its line. Either way, the task of finessing ETA's end may now fall to Mr Rajoy.

What of the spontaneous protests against establishment politics that have spread across Spanish city-centre squares over the past week? Some protestors had called for voters to stay away from the ballot box yesterday. But in the event turnout rose, slightly, to 66%. Still, the number of spoiled ballots jumped to 4%, becoming the fourth most popular option, suggesting a rising mood of disenchantment among some Spanish voters. The two main parties saw their overall share of the vote drop from 70% to 65%, compared to 2007.

The protests should continue, with camp-outs set to last for at least six more days. The demonstrators are by no means solely left-wing utopians, although these groups sometimes appear to be in control. A cumbersome system of open assemblies, committees, sub-committees and working groups means the process of producing a coherent set of demands is proving painfully slow.

Electoral reform to a system that favours the two big parties, as well as nationalists in Catalonia and the Basque country, appears to be one of the major demands. It is also the one least likely to be conceded. A freedom-of-information law and measures to tackle corruption and politicians' privileges may prove more realistic ambitions.

Driving into Homs during the week, the city feels normal, bar a checkpoint on entry. People do their shopping and sip coffee in the centre of town. But on Fridays Homs feels like a city under siege. Yellow plastic signs, rocks and dustbins are set up as roadblocks. Gunshots echo around the streets of restless neighbourhoods. On the outskirts of the city tanks inexpertly plastered with pictures of Bashar Assad, the Syrian president, lie close to a mall with its windows blown out. Soldiers loll on patches grass. Sandbags mark the corners of troubled neighbourhoods. In the evening the atmosphere is intimidating and threatening. Checkpoints proliferate, manned by armed personnel in plain clothes. Some are the security forces and some from Alawite gangs, say residents.

The security forces have blocked protesters from reaching the town's central New Clock square since a large sit-in took place on April 18th which was violently broken up. Around the square, windows are still boarded up. But Homs's protesters—young men for the most part—are defiant. Dressed in tracksuits and with flushed faces after Friday's protests, they are eager to talk. They all say the same thing: they are angry that they cannot find work, angry that they cannot earn enough money to buy the houses they need to get married. They are tired the pervasive control exercised by the security forces who have to sign off on everything. And they are fed up with the city's rampant corruption.

These young men may be the face of the protests, but they are supported at home by angry women and an older generation outraged by the killings, the torture of those arrested and the transformation of their city into a patchwork of no-go areas. On Fridays families turn their houses into temporary hospitals where doctors scurry to treat the injured and count the number killed. Banging his hands on the table in frustration, a doctor explains how last Friday one man died of a gunshot wound to his leg because he bled for two hours but could not be taken to hospital. People have been arrested to carrying medical supplies. Older residents drive around warning protesters gathering on street corners when security forces are near. Many have offered shelter in their homes to those fleeing the gunfire on the streets.

The rebellion in Homs, Syria's third city and the biggest to be hit by sustained unrest, is the most significant challenge to Mr Assad. Far from the glare of the media, small protests are popping up in the city's poor neighbourhoods on a nightly basis. Syria's uprising has been driven by the poorer villages and towns—where the ruling Baath Party has lost its ideological pull—so Homs is an important marker. After smaller protests and fewer deaths the previous Friday, some commentators thought that Mr Assad looked safe. But demonstrations are spreading across the country and numbers were up this week. Previously the government tried to discourage protests on Fridays by hinting at reforms on Thursdays. It is no longer even bothering to do that. Those reforms that were offered, such as the lifting of Syria's emergency law and the granting of citizenship to the Kurds, have not been carried out or have been done only symbolically.

A national dialogue, announced last Friday, has failed to get off the ground with almost all of the government's opponents unwilling to enter talks and the government showing a notable absence of sincerity. America has imposed sanctions on Syria. Last Thursday Barack Obama called for Mr Assad to lead a political transition or "get out of the way", words echoed two days later by the Turkish foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu. It is hard to imagine Mr Assad doing either. Sectarian hatred is being stirred in cities such as Homs and Banias where Alawite and Sunni neighbourhoods are sandwiched together. Frustrated protesters, keen to keep a predominantly peaceful uprising that way, see a long and violent road ahead.

Update: The death toll from the weekend is now at least 76.

Europe seems likely to get its way when the empty chair is filled

THE website of the IMF now lists the post of managing director as being vacant. Its most recent occupant, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, stands formally indicted in a case of sexual assault, and is expected to be released on bail today from New York’s Rikers Island jail. The fund itself is being run for the time being by its deputy head, John Lipsky. But even as it struggles to contain the damage to its reputation from the extraordinary circumstances in which its previous boss left it, politicking on the question of who should succeed him has begun in earnest. The big question is whether it will be another European, or whether the rest of the world will get a serious shot at the job for the first time since the IMF was founded in 1944.

Europe’s lock on the top job at the IMF is not due to anything in the fund’s constitution. It is the result of an unwritten agreement between America and Europe dating back to the founding of the IMF and its sister institution, the World Bank, which is always headed by an American. Recent statements from top European politicians make it quite clear that they would like this tradition to continue. German chancellor Angela Merkel says that “there is a lot in favour of a European candidate being put forward”. Indeed, Europe’s leaders seem to rapidly be converging on Christine Lagarde, the French finance minister, as their likely choice for the job.

Judging by the rhetoric emanating from the capitals of big emerging economies, however, Europe may not see its assumed right to pick the IMF’s boss go uncontested. Countries like Brazil and China have become increasingly unhappy with what they see as a cosy agreement between rich countries that shuts all non-Americans and Europeans of top jobs at the international financial institutions. They have long argued that this prevents the fund being headed by the best person for the job. Brazil’s finance minister, Guido Mantega, has been outspoken on this issue. On May 18th he said, “we must establish meritocracy, so that the person leading the IMF is selected for their merits and not for being European”. Earlier, a spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry said the choice of leading officials for the IMF and the World Bank should be based on “fairness, transparency, and merit”. That, as ever, is code for breaking with convention.

But there is a long way from rhetoric about the need for an emerging-economy candidate at the helm of the IMF to actually breaking the European stranglehold on the top job. The first hurdle is settling on a candidate acceptable to a large number of big emerging economies. Unlike the Europeans, who are used to coming up with a joint candidate for the IMF boss’s job and are quickly coalescing around Ms Lagarde’s candidature, there is no sign yet of similar convergence among emerging economies. Augustin Carstens, governor of Mexico’s central bank and Tharman Shanmugaratnam, the finance minister of Singapore and the present—and well-regarded—head of the IMF’s top policy-making committee, are among the names being discussed. Another viable emerging-world candidate is senior Indian official and former head of the IMF’s internal evaluation office, Montek Singh Ahluwalia. The chances of Kemal Dervis, a former Turkish finance minister, might be boosted by his proximity to top European politicians, and his coming from a country straddling Europe and Asia.* Stanley Fischer, the present governor of the Bank of Israel and a former IMF number two, is also a serious contender.

However, support from America, the IMF’s biggest shareholder by far, would be critical for the chances of success of any non-European candidate. America has so far not taken a clear position. Its treasury department issued a statement calling for an “open” process to select a new head for the IMF. That might be seen as a hint of support for an emerging-market candidate. But the statement also calls for promptness in finding a new IMF head. That can be seen as tacitly supporting the Europeans, who are used to coming up with a joint candidate for the IMF boss’s job. The hints about Ms Lagarde being chosen are probably driven by the desire to demonstrate that Europe stands ready to aid a speedy resolution to the IMF’s leadership problem.

And America has reason to be reticent about actually supporting a non-European candidate. It is extremely keen to hang on to the number two position at the IMF. David Lipton, a former treasury official and current White House staffer, is said to be the administration’s choice. But its monopoly on this position, as well as its lock on the top post at the World Bank, derive from the same convention which Europe is now being asked to ditch. Emerging economies have a good point when they argue that the legitimacy of an institution like the IMF depends on it being seen to be fair, and that allowing its head to be picked by a handful of countries without an open contest is not a good way to bolster confidence in the fund’s independence. But they are unlikely get the change they are seeking this time.

*Update: Mr Dervis says he is not in the running for the top job at the IMF.

There were, of course, some discomforting passages for Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president. Mr Obama scoffed at his plan to secure recognition for a Palestinian state at the United Nations, warning him that it would be simply "symbolic". He made it clear that he would not again seek an Israeli settlement freeze as a precondition for kick-starting negotiations. He recognised Israel as a Jewish state, rather than one of all its citizens, Arab and Jewish alike. But the Palestinians have heard all this before.

There was as much delight in what Mr Obama did not say. His failure to mention his meeting in Washington next week with Binyamin Netanyahu was seen by Palestinians as a snub to the Israeli prime minister. He abandoned his predecessor's commitment to allowing Israel to keep its West Bank settlement "blocks"; instead he said land swaps should be mutually agreed. And he pointedly dropped any reference to the three conditions (the abrogation of violence, recognition of Israel, and respect of previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements) that America and its fellow Quartet members had set out five years ago for Hamas, the Islamist group that governs Gaza, as a price for engagement. Instead he said merely that Hamas's non-recognition of Israel raised questions. In short, says an intrigued international official in Jerusalem, this is the most pro-Palestinian speech ever by an American president.

But is it too late for more negotiations mediated by America? Since the expiry of Israel's moratorium on settlement building last September, and the resulting collapse of a brief round of negotiations, the Palestinian leadership has distanced itself from reliance on American brokerage. The Arab spring has further increased pressure on Mr Abbas to bow to popular appeals for intra-Palestinian reconciliation and the unilateral pursuit of Palestinian core demands. In September, Mr Abbas plans to seek endorsement of a Palestinian state at the UN. To Mr Netanyahu's dismay, he has also agreed to heal the rift between the nationalist Fatah faction, which he heads in the West Bank, and its Islamist rivals, Hamas. On May 15th Palestinians refugees launched with his blessing a campaign of civil resistance aimed at encouraging the return of Palestinian refugees by breaching Israel's armistice lines.

Palestinian officials still hope they can satisfy both their people and their external bankrollers. While agreeing in principle to restart negotiations, they plan to throw the ball back into Israel's court by demanding Mr Netanyahu accept previous agreements to suspend settlement building and agree terms of reference. Should Mr Netanyahu balk, as he is expected to do, Mr Abbas could then head back to the UN.

But bucking the momentum for negotiations could prove easier said than done. Palestinian negotiators seeking to pocket Mr Obama's new parameters could come under pressure to suspend their unilateral measures. Mr Abbas would probably be accused of bad faith were he to accept the offer of borders along the 1967 lines but start a campaign to isolate Israel at the UN while efforts to resume negotiations were afoot. In an effort to woo Israel, he might also come under pressure to backpedal on his rapprochement with Hamas. (Mr Abbas had already delayed implementing his reconciliation deal with Hamas until after the Obama speech.) Similarly, he might also be pressed to rein in Palestinian civil resistance. 

Fearing as much, some Hamas officials have already denounced Mr Obama's proposals as futile. They accuse the president of double standards—blessing popular uprisings, even armed ones, as struggles for freedom elsewhere in the Arab world, while condemning Palestinians for unilateralism. They rebuked their own, including Khaled Meshaal, the movement's Syria-based leader, for endorsing negotiations with Israel, have been pilloried by rivals within. After two decades of inconclusive negotiations overseen by America, Mr Obama will have an uphill struggle convincing Palestinians that their quest for statehood still goes via Washington, rather than acts of self-determination on the ground or the UN plaza in New York.

Monday 23rd

The fallout from Domique Strauss-Kahn's arrest and subsequent resignation from the IMF continues in Europe, as French politicians rearrange the furniture to prepare for life without him and members of the euro-zone wonder what his departure means for the future of their currency. Barack Obama visits Ireland on his European tour. A smoking ban comes into force in New York that is even more extensive than the current one.

Tuesday 22nd

It's Tuesday so it must be Britain: the Obama tour continues. Meanwhile in Washington, Benjamin Netanhayu, Israel's prime minister, will give a speech to the Senate.  In Russia there is an appeal hearing for Mikhail Khordokovsky. 

Wednesday 23rd

Japanese prime minister Naoto Kan holds a meeting with French president Nicola Sarkozy.

Thursday 24th

Leaders of the G8 group of countries hold a summit in Deauville, France. 

Friday 25th

Barack Obama visits Poland.

Sunday 27th

Malta holds a referendum on whether to allow divorce.

Higherflyer: "Lies, damn lies and pies"
rkorba: "Just desserts"
ExDub: "Another fine mess"
arialblack: "A dirty game "
wellred: "Not so black and white"
menace8012: "Cyber bullying"
logicallyinsane: "But will it stain?"
ManorC: "Googlewhack"

The caption we used was "A pie for a pie", based on ideas proposed by jordan and GoYMhdG47c. This appeared in the paper today. We offer our congratulations to the winners, and our thanks to everyone who took part.

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Strict security has surrounded her visit, and few members of the public will see her in person. Bomb threats from dissident republicans have meant the police and army are taking no risks with her safety. The biggest security operation in Ireland's history has seen much of the city centre closed off to cars, pedestrians and protesters.

Yet this trip is a celebration of a warming of relations that have helped weaken the men of violence. In 1998, after the Good Friday Agreement had produced a political settlement in Northern Ireland, helping draw the curtain on three decades of conflict, Tony Blair, Britain’s prime minister, spoke to the Irish parliament of “so much shared history, so much shared pain” between the two countries. The hope was for a new beginning in a relationship scarred by centuries of violence, mutual suspicion and mistrust. In a referendum 94% of Irish voters opted to renounce their country's constitutional claim to the northern province.

A decision in 2007 to play the British national anthem at a rugby match between England and Ireland in Dublin's Croke Park, scene of a massacre of Irish civilians by British auxiliary forces in 1920, was perhaps the biggest symbolic step. But the queen's state visit marks a formal cap in the peace process, and an acknowledgement of a bilateral relationship that has become not just normal, but special.

The queen’s visit is not about, as one Irish commentator put it this morning, "opening flower shows". Indeed, it includes some major symbolic acts of reconciliation. At Dublin’s Garden of Remembrance yesterday she laid a wreath in memory of those who died “in the cause of Irish freedom”. This included those who fought British troops to achieve Irish independence, but excluded the modern IRA, regarded as terrorists. Later today she will lay a wreath to almost 50,000 Irish soldiers who died fighting for Britain in the first world war. She will also visit Croke Park.

Links between Ireland and Britain are extremely strong. Three recent British prime ministers—Jim Callaghan, John Major and Tony Blair—claim Irish ancestry. An estimated 6m people in Britain—almost one-and-a-half times Ireland’s population—have an Irish parent or grandparent. Ireland is Britain’s fifth largest export market, accounting for more than Brazil, Russia, India and China combined—and Britain is the largest market for Irish goods.

Last December, to some surprise, Britain issued Ireland a £3.2 billion ($5 billion) bilateral loan, following the Irish bail-out by the European Union and the IMF. The move reflected Ireland’s importance to Britain, not only as a trading partner but also as a place where British banks were heavily exposed to a collapsed property market. For many Irish people, Britain’s willingness to help a neighbour in difficulty contrasted favourably with the aggressive stance adopted by some of Ireland’s euro-zone partners, notably France and Germany, in pressing Ireland to accept a bail-out (which is, for many Irish people, actually a rescue of bondholders in Irish banks, many of them French and German) and to raise its low corporate-tax rate.

The British loan was just one of many acts that has helped, slowly, to transform relations between Ireland and Britain after centuries of mistrust. The queen's visit shows how successful that transformation has been.

The big surprise was in Milan, where the left’s candidate for mayor, Giuliano Pisapia, bested the outgoing mayor, Letizia Moratti (pictured) of Mr Berlusconi’s People of Freedom (PdL) movement. The two will compete in a run-off on May 29th and 30th. Italy’s business capital is politically significant in several respects. It is Mr Berlusconi’s native city and the one from which he launched his political career. But it is also where he is being tried on a string of charges, including paying an underage prostitute. His trial on that charge and another, of abusing his official position, began in Milan last month.

As so often in the past, Mr. Berlusconi succeeded in turning the ballot in Milan into a referendum on himself. He put himself at the top of the slate for places on the council and aimed a string of insults at the prosecutors and judges he claims are victimising him for political ends. This time, however, the ploy backfired.

Ms Moratti still has a chance to revive her fortunes in the run-off. She may pick up support from centrist candidates who have been eliminated from the race. But the first-round results made it clear she had paid dearly for adopting the roughhouse tactics the prime minister favours on the hustings.

Mr Berlusconi applauded when Ms Moratti used her claws in the final stages of the campaign, publicly accusing her rival of having consorted with left-wing extremists. Mr Pisapia furiously denied her claim and announced plans to sue for slander.

Earlier in the campaign, there was a row over the use of posters (disowned by Ms Moratti) that depicted Mr Berlusconi’s eternal courtroom adversaries in the state-prosecution service as terrorists.

Milan was the biggest city at stake in a ballot in which some 13m people—more than a quarter of the electorate—were eligible to vote. For Mr Berlusconi, the most important question raised by Ms Moratti’s defeat is how it will affect his national coalition with the Northern League, many of whose members hold the prime minister responsible for their own party’s poor showing. The League's share of the vote in the election for places on the council slumped to below 10% (compared with almost 15% in Milan in last year’s regional elections).

The League’s leader, Umberto Bossi, was already seething at Mr Berlusconi’s failure to consult him over joining the air offensive in Libya. It remains unlikely he will pull out of the coalition while there remains a chance of the government passing legislation to give the regions greater control over taxes, one of Mr Bossi's key aims. But relations between the two men are more strained than at any time since the last general election, in 2008.

The right, then, has problems. But the results in Naples show that the left does, too. A candidate for the small but vociferous (and intensely anti-Berlusconi) Italy of Values party ran against the choice of Italy’s biggest opposition group, the Democratic Party (PD), and won more votes.

It was another indication of a rising tide of personal aversion to Mr Berlusconi. Some, particularly on the left, were predicting it could carry Italy’s prime minister out of politics for good. Maybe. But it is worth remembering that this is a tide that has risen in the past, only to ebb again.

Mr Strauss-Kahn was arrested when he was already aboard an Air France plane at Kennedy International Airport, just minutes before it was due to take off. New York police said he was charged with “a criminal sexual act, attempted rape, and an unlawful imprisonment in connection with a sexual assault” on a chambermaid in a Manhattan hotel. Reports suggested that Mr Strauss-Kahn had left his hotel room in a hurry. His lawyer, Benjamin Brafman, told Reuters that his client would plead not guilty.

The news has rocked the political class in Paris. Martine Aubry, the Socialist Party leader, called it a “thunderbolt”. Others talked of a “cataclysm”. Even were Mr Strauss-Kahn to be cleared eventually of the charges, the prospect of a court case and the intense scrutiny of his private life would make it virtually impossible for him to return to France to fight a primary. Already, in 2008, he faced an internal IMF investigation into an affair with a fellow member of staff. In the end, the fund concluded that Mr Strauss-Kahn had not abused his position, but he accepted their view that he had made “a serious error of judgment”. His wife, Anne Sinclair, a popular and well-known French television journalist, stood by him. The Fund's decision then to keep him on now looks timid and ill-judged.

Even before this latest shock, it was becoming clear that the French presidential campaign was set to be a nasty exercise in low politics. Over the past week or so, doubtless fed by the political right, the French media has been filled with reports about Mr Strauss-Kahn’s lifestyle, complete with photographs of his pad in Marrakech and swanky Paris flats. A picture of him getting into a Porsche, belonging to an adviser, set off a fierce and tortured French debate about whether it is possible to be left-wing and rich.

All of this, however, pales in comparison with news of the charges of sexual aggression. The French are well-known for shrugging their shoulders at their politicians’ private lives, and consider affairs to be de rigeur rigueur for political leaders. But sexual violence is an altogether different matter. If the charges are proved correct, the tragedy is that Mr Strauss-Kahn was in all other ways a strong and attractive candidate, with the international standing and economic authority needed to challenge Mr Sarkozy in 2012. Now, it looks likely that either Ms Aubry, or François Hollande, the party’s ex-leader, will secure the Socialist nomination, after a vote by party supporters this autumn. Without Mr Strauss-Kahn, the French Socialists’ chances of winning next year’s presidential election, for the first time since 1988, have not collapsed—but the race suddenly looks far more open.

Whatever the fall-out on French politics, Mr Strauss-Kahn's arrest has left the IMF reeling. One insider called it a “disaster”. Although he had been expected to leave within a couple of months, Mr Strauss-Kahn, unless quickly exonerated, will now presumably be forced out far sooner. 

That leaves the fund without a political heavyweight at the top in the midst of important negotiations with European policymakers over Greece’s debt crisis. Mr Strauss-Kahn was due to meet with Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel today and attend a crucial meeting of Euro group finance ministers on May 16th. At those meetings the fund’s boss was to make clear that the IMF would not go along with more dithering or fudges over Greece’s debt mess. Europe would have to come up with more money for Greece fast, or its debt will need to be reprofiled. Even if the fund sends another messenger, its heft in the euro debt mess is significantly diminished without a heavyweight at the top.

If Mr Strauss-Kahn goes, the fund’s first deputy managing director, John Lipsky, would take charge. Not only does Mr Lipsky lack Mr Strauss-Kahn’s (erstwhile) political stature, he is himself a bit of lame-duck: only three days ago, on May 12th, Mr Lipsky announced that he planned to leave in August. In a short statement released on May 15th, the IMF’s spokeswoman had no comment on Mr Strauss-Kahn’s arrest, but said that “The IMF remains fully functioning and operational.” That may be true. But there are going to be some gaping holes at the top.

UPDATE May 16th 17:50 GMT Mr Strauss-Kahn has been remanded in custody until his next appearance in court, scheduled for May 20th. A New York judge denied him bail on the grounds that he posed a flight risk. Meanwhile, French radio has reported that Mr Strauss-Kahn's lawyers plan to mount a defence based on evidence showing that their client was having lunch with his daughter when the attempted rape is alleged to have taken place. But there have also been reports that the New York police now say the incident took place earlier than was originally reported.

Another troubling development for Mr Strauss-Kahn is the possible revival of an earlier sexual-assault claim. David Koubbi, a lawyer for Tristane Banon, a 31-year-old French writer, says she may file a criminal complaint against Mr Strauss-Kahn relating to an alleged incident in 2002. At first Ms Banon supposedly did not press charges on the advice of her mother; Mr Koubbi says she now believes her case will be taken more seriously.

UPDATE May 19th 04:45 GMT Mr Strauss-Kahn has resigned from his position as managing director of the IMF, saying he wants to protect the institution and devote his time and energy to proving his innocence. While the fund decides how to pick a new leader, John Lipsky remains acting managing director.

UPDATE May 19th 21:45 GMT A judge in Manhattan granted Mr Strauss-Kahn bail on Thursday, though he will be confined to an apartment in New York. A grand jury has also indicted the former IMF director on several sexual assault charges, the most serious of which carry a 25-year prison term.

(Picture credit: AFP)

The photograph above will accompany an article in the Business section in this week's issue. Facebook has admitted hiring a public relations firm to pitch negative stories about its rival, Google, to the world's media. The mud-slinging campaign was led by two former journalists, who had joined the PR company after long careers in news organisations. Many think the episode offers further proof that journalists and publicists get along rather too cosily.

As before, it's up to you to provide the caption: please leave your suggestions in the comments thread below. The captions should be as short and snappy as possible, and definitely no more than about 30 characters long. The best contribution will appear beneath the picture in this week's print edition, which is published on Friday morning. Entries close at midnight London time on Wednesday evening, so you've got a little more than 48 hours. The only reward is that the winner can then truthfully claim to have written (at least a few words) for The Economist. Over to you.

Update: The competition is now closed, and the winner has been announced.

In three separate episodes during the day—on the Syrian border with the Golan Heights, on the Lebanese border and on the border with the Gaza Strip—those marching were met with live gun fire. At least a dozen Palestinians died. Scores more, most of them young men, were injured.

Israeli police and Palestinian demonstrators traded stones and tear gas in East Jerusalem on the third day of street violence following the death of a young Palestinian, apparently shot by a settler or a security guard. Many were injuried and dozens arrested, but no more fatalities were reported.

Meanwhile in Ramallah, the de facto capital of the West Bank, thousands of people marked "Nakba Day", the anniversary of Israel's creation in 1948, in a huge gathering organised by the Palestinian Authority.

Nakba Day, falling close to Israel's independence day (which was celebrated last week), has often been a time of particular tension in the occupied territories and inside Israel-proper. This year police inside the country and the army in the West Bank were placed on high alert. Israel is worried that the Arab spring that is sweeping the region, and the Palestinian leadership's plan to seek statehood at the United Nations in September are likely to inflame popular emotion and lead to violence on the West Bank and possibly also in Israel.

The prospect of mass, unarmed "invasions" by refugee Palestinians from across the borders, though much discussed as a doomsday scenario, was apparently not seriously contemplated by the army. As a result, when a couple of thousand Palestinians, bused to the Golan border opposite the town of Majdal Shams, began clambering over the fence, only a small force of soldiers confronted them.

"I ordered the army to exercise maximal restraint," said Israel's prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, in a brief televised announcement in the evening. "But no-one should be mistaken; we are determined to defend our borders and our sovereignty."

On the Golan border, several Palestinians were shot dead. But the Israeli officer in command decided not to fire wholesale, and hundreds of people eventually poured through the broken fence and into Majdal Shams. Local residents, Druze citizens of Syria who live prosperously but carefully under Israeli occupation, rounded them up and escorted them firmly back over the border. "We’re not happy about this," Dolan Abu Salah, the town's mayor, told Israeli television.

On the Lebanese border, near the Israeli village of Avivim, Lebanese troops shot into the air in an effort to deter the crowd of Palestinians. When they approached nevertheless, Israeli soldiers fired, killing as many as ten people according to Lebanese reports. The fence was not breached.

On the Gaza border, the army said it had killed one man seen laying an explosive device. At least one other fatality occurred when a crowd of Palestinians marched towards the main checkpoint at Erez Crossing and Israeli troops there opened fire.

Israeli officials claimed to see the hand of Iran or Syria's beleaguered president, Bashar Assad, in the Golan and Lebanon border incidents. They pointed to the relative quiet on the West Bank, despite fears of serious disturbance there.

But behind the brave facade, many in Israel are seriously worried that the powerful phenomenon of masses marching in defiance of armed force may at last be spreading to Palestine after challenging so many regimes in the region.

Midan, which means gathering place, is just outside Damascus's old walled city. Locals describe it as the country's "heartland", full of old Damascene families who are mainly shopkeepers and traders, though younger residents have become teachers and doctors. Its inhabitants stood staunchly against the French occupation in the early twentieth century and have featured in the country's most famous soap opera. Unlike newer, upmarket suburbs, few people have moved there from other cities.

Among the modern flats, people still live in old houses whose top floors hang over the small crumbling streets where young boys kick footballs late into the evening. In the evenings the main road is lit up by neon signs and chains of fairy lights. Few tourists make their way there but during Ramadan locals flock to break the fast at one of the pavement restaurants, or nibble samples from pyramids of precariously-balanced sweets.

Come to the end of the road and you hit a less-elegant concrete flyover. Nearby sits the Abu Ayoub al-Ansari mosque. A few hundred metres away, on the opposite site of the road, lies the al-Hassan mosque. On Fridays they are surrounded by ragtag groups of leather-clad security forces. Police loiter on the rooftops and buses of youths zoom by.

The authorities are keeping a close eye on loyalties of Syria's state-sanctioned clergy and Midan's sheikhs have a penchant for candidness. A past sheikh, Hassan Habannaka, led a religious opposition movement against the Baath Party. The current sheikh of al-Hassan mosque, Krayyem Rajjha, a respected Islamic scholar, is a long-time critic of the government who has refused to pray for the president. On past Fridays he has drawn the praise of thousands for his sermons on economic hardship and the mukahbarat, Syria's feared security forces. Worshippers report a sly remark during one sermon to the ring of security thugs outside, suggesting "our friends might like to come inside to pray". The mosque was also the site where Riad Seif, a veteran opposition figure, was picked up on May 6th, further fueling Midan's unrest. He was released on Sunday.

A brief guide to events in the coming week

Monday 16th

EU finance ministers meet in Brussels. There will be talk of Greek restructuring and further bail-outs, and probably approval of a deal for Portugal after the Finland gave its assent last week. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the head of the IMF, will not be there. Sovereign debt will be in the news in America too: the government is due to hit its supposed debt ceiling on the same day. NASA's space shuttle Endeavor is due to launch, again.

Tuesday 17th

The Queen will make the first state visit to Ireland by a British monarch since Ireland became independent in 1923. In a separate but possibly related development, a week of festivities begins to mark Buddha's birth (according to some calendars at least).

Weds 18th

Dmitry Medvedev gives his annual press conference, which could fuel more speculation on whether he or Vladimir Putin will run for Russia's presidency next year. Mikhail Khodorkovsky's appeal against his embezzlement conviction, handed down last December, is also expected some time during the week.

Thurs 19th

Barack Obama is expected to make a speech on events and policy in the Middle East.

Fri 20th

Vietnam holds parliamentary elections. In the last ones, in 2007, the ruling party won 492 of 493 seats.