Austin Bay Blog

I see Roger Simon has already blogged this– I certain he’s another Diplomad fan. Go read this latest Diplomad broadside on the elections in Iraq.

The big gun paragraph:

…There is one group of singularly anti-American types who just have had the hardest time imaginable praising the events of January 30. Who are these foul anti-Americans? Has The Diplomad taught you nothing? Why the leaders of the Democratic Party of the USA, of course! The party that has become the party of the Comma-ists. You know what we mean: the types who must always insert a comma after a ritual throw-away phrase. For example: ?Of course the terrorist attacks of 9/11 were horrible [Here it comes! Listen for it!] [COMMA] but US policy in the Middle East . . .” ?Of course the Iraqi elections were a good thing [COMMA] but they will not resolve the serous issue of severe income inequality in East St. Louis, or the growing gender disparity in the granting of scholarships to welding schools . . .?

As usual, Diplomad’s both witty and accurate. In some respects, Comma-ism is another manifestation of the flipflop disease –for it and against it.

Then go read the Daily Demarche and its “talking points memo”. The Demarche provides a point by point answer to Comma-ists.

If the ad at www.royalalberthall.com and the 60’s-era poster displayed at www.jackbruce.com are accurate, then the greatest improvisational rock group of all time is getting back together. The reunion concerts are scheduled for May 2, May 3, May 5, and May 6. Last week I was playing the live “I’m So Glad” jam from the “Goodbye” album (that dates me– it was on a CD). The amount of energy Jack Bruce, Eric Clapton, and Ginger Baker expend in that nine minute tune is extraordinary. Can they pull that off in as men in their mid-fifties? Jack Bruce is an amazingly talented performer and a thinking-man’s rock musician. His cellist training shows in his bass playing– and the atonal bass lines he tossed into the live “I’m So Glad” are still surprising 37 years after the group recorded it. My daughters’ generation knows Eric Clapton–he’s a trans-generational superstar. Bruce and Baker are obscure, which is a shame. Personal friction and exhaustion broke Cream up. I saw the group perform live twice, once in 1967 and again in late 1968. In performance they were a clash of wills, a collision of genius, and a symphonic wall of well-knit music. New York Philharmonic great Leonard Bernstein admired Cream. He liked Baker’s poly-rhythmic techniques and the contrapuntal ideas present in many of the group’s tunes. (Clapton’s showtune, “Crossroads,” is an example of this. Essentially, Clapton is playing lead guitar, Bruce lead bass, and Baker lead drums– that’s three leads weaving together. Tthe tune comes together as one very coherent and intense work.) I’ve said for three decades that the best Cream jams are truly rock fugues. Yesterday I heard from a friend of mine who says he’s going to see one of the reunion concerts in London and to heck with the cost. I’m envious. You bet I’ll buy the CD.

UPDATE: I was scanning www.Talkleft.com and read a post linked to Steve Winwood’s website that said Traffic’s drummer Jim Capaldi died on January 28. Capaldi had an elegant touch as a drummer. He was a fine musician. Like Cream, Traffic was a Sixties super-group closely followed by musicians– and I don’t mean just rock musicians. Traffic pioneered jazz-rock fusion. Steve Winwood –picking up where he left off in the Spencer Davis Group– usually played organ; Chris Wood played flute and sax. The “ultimate” British musicians supergroup would have had Steve Winwood linking up with Clapton, Bruce, and Baker, but after Cream’s break-up, there was too much personal poison. The supergroup Blind Faith featured Clapton, Winwood, and Baker, with Rick Grech adding a rather quotidian bass player/electric violin behind the big names. (Grech was no slouch, but –like Lloyd Bentsen telling Dan Quayle he was no Jack Kennedy– Grech was no Jack Bruce. No one in rock was or is Jack Bruce as a bass player, except Jack Bruce. ) I did catch Blind Faith’s one and only tour when the group came through Houston. To be fair, “Sea of Joy,” which featured Grech on violin, was memorable. Bruce was supposed to have been playing darts and nursing a case of anger in a pub named Slugs the night Blind Faith played its first gig. I read somewhere that Clapton once complained that Cream was always missing a “fourth” instrument. I wonder if Steve Windwood will attend the reunion concert?

UPDATE 2: Commenter Brad Lena says: “When listening back to live Cream recordings, an honest assessment would say some of it aged
exceedingly well and other? well it was the 60?s.” I agree if Brad means the live material from “Live Cream.” The live version of Baker’s “Toad” does get boring on “Wheels of Fire.” However, I think the live “I’m So Glad” from the “Goodbye” album and two live tracks from “Wheels of Fire,” “Spoonful” and “Crossroads,” hold up well over time. “The live “Spoonful” jam is a moving curtain of sound. The band put a hole in the universe the night they recorded it at the Fillmore East. The live jam that disappoints me –in part because the tune has so many interesting angles, from an player’s point of view– is “Deserted Cities of the Heart” (which is on the “Live Cream” album). The studio version of “Deserted Cities” is simply superb –as poignant and mysterious as “Tales of Brave Ulysses” from “Disreali Gears.” The knock on Cream by the rock critics of 1967 was that the band suffered from “bad material.” “Fresh Cream” is uneven– but “Disraeli Gears” is a near-perfect collection of tunes. Perhaps Felix Pappalardi deserves credit for getting the “Cream sound” in the studio. But Bruce, Baker, and Clapton got the sound in concert. The only other player of the Sixties operating at their level of creative energy was Jimi Hendrix.

UPDATE 3: Reply to commenter Stuart: I saw that same show (in the old Houston Music Hall) with Cream and Vanilla Fudge on the bill. Bruce’s “Traintime” in the Music Hall –a relatively small venue– was overpowering. My grandfather had taught me how to play the harmonica and I could do a passable harmonica version of “The Yellow Rose of Texas” and I had experimented with blues harmonica licks. I had some good musical models: I’d heard recordings of the Muddy Waters band. I’d heard “Cats Squirrel” from the “Fresh Cream” album. I had a couple of John Mayall albums (including the one with Clapton)– so I had some familiarity with good blues harp players. However, “Traintime” –with Bruce’s long harmonica lead backed by Baker’s insistent Santa Fe Superchief drum work– introduced me to another dimension in harmonica playing. I did learn to play “Traintime”– sort of.

UPDATE 4 to JRK: Thanks for the great comment and, yes, we respect your opinions– however, I disagree with your put-down on Traffic. Winwood came out of Spencer Davis as “the talent to watch” and he went into Traffic with large expectations from Spencer Davis fans (like me). I saw Spirit perform twice– haven’t forgotten them at all. I have to add this: I learned the piano licks to “Fresh Garbage” and put together a piano version of “Uncle Jack” (which, I admit, lacked a lot but slamming those power chords was fun). Loved Spirit. No, I didn’t forget Dave Mason — “Feeling All Right” is a standard I still play, or at least fiddle with. Beck’s “Truth” album was seminal, but I think the group that ripped it off was Led Zeppelin. The second Jeff Beck Group album (”Beck-ola”–the one with the big green apple on the front) is also a classic. Here’s the difference between Beck with Rod Stewart and Cream — having Rod Stewart means your group puts a premium on rock as dramatic performance. Beck is an extraordinary musical talent, his work with The Yardbirds proved that (I should add “Train kept a rollin’” to my rock harp influence list), but Stewart is a rock performer. Cream was (will be again?) rock as music. Debate the nuance, but this is a distinction with a difference. The Allman Brothers were superb in concert as well and D. Betts and D. Allman’s improvisational excursions are beautiful and brilliant.”In Memory of Elizabeth Reed” moves and keeps moving–heck, it’s elegant. (I caught the Allman Brothers in Dallas, right after Duane was killed. I also caught Derek and the Domnoes, in 1971 I think? Great guitar show.) However: your analysis cheats Cream and the group’s achievement. Are there cross influences? Of course. Again– I appreciate your comment.

UPDATE 5: JRK is guilty of revisionism –or age. But so it goes with rock critics. “Truth” came out in 1968. See this post with a Beck group discography. “Fresh Cream” dates from December 1966. See this link to information on the original Polydor release.

It appears the 60 to 70 percent voter turnout projections I quoted in last week’s column were based on solid polling data. TV and wire servies are reporting a “preliminary” turnout of 72 percent. I was on Hugh Hewitt’s radio program Friday and said that I am praying for patience . It will take 24 to 72 hours to get firm turnout figures and a more detailed statistical assessment of who voted and where. I suspect it will take at least a month for the new Iraqi parties to “coalesce” as organizations and coalitions.

I heard a report that Iraqis who voted have ink on their fingers and a reporter in Baghdad saw a group of voters showing off their ink-stains. That’s an identifying mark — one that almost literally shoves a finger in the eye of terror.

UPDATE: Thanks for the Instapundit link. The updated www.austinbay.net home page has a montage of photos from my tour of duty in Iraq. The first photo is Saddam’s “Water Palace” (Al Faw), which is near Baghdad International Airport. It serves as headquarters for Multinational Corps Iraq (MNC-I).

UPDATE 2: I’ve received several long emails from friends in Baghdad–they are all encouraging. Today the “Arab street” finally got a chance to speak. No, I won’t put the emails up because they were personal. However, one included a clip from a US Embassy report on vote percentages that I can pass along. This is a common sense warning, folks. I know, the tv cable news crowd has no patience, but patience is a must. As I mentioned earlier today, I said on Hugh Hewitt’s show Friday that it will take two to three days to get a reliable figure on voter turnout. That still strikes me as reasonable. The quote:

“II. Turnout

While reports of good voter turnout continued throughout the day, the 72% turnout announced at the second Election Day news conference by the IECI are based on anecdotal reports coming from the field and reflect enthusiasm to share positive news related to the election. It will take some time before IECI can release more reliable turnout figures. ”

UPDATE 3: Belgravia Dispatch simply nails Juan Cole on the Iraqi elections.

UPDATE 4: Instapundit has this Associated Press clip up. According to the AP the rest of the Arab world is watching the Iraqi elections with fascination. Iraq is more than an experiment in democracy –it is regional revolution by information and political osmosis.

Okay, perhaps the right word is “investigation,” not speculation– but my faith isn’t based on relics. Still, the Shroud of Turin is a particularly intriguing artifact –whether it’s a fake or a miracle. Perhaps it is the medieval equivalent of a UFO, but I find the mystery of the Shroud and the saga of its various scientific examinations far more compelling than the sci-fi space shenanigans around Roswell.

The New York Times published an article yesterday that focuses on the validity of carbon dating tests run on the Shroud in 1988.

Here’s a key quote from that NYT article– which outlines the case for a big time analytic goof:

“In an article this month in the journal Thermochimica Acta, Dr. Raymond N. Rogers, a chemist retired from Los Alamos National Laboratory, said the carbon dating test was valid but that the piece tested was about the size of a postage stamp and came from a portion that had been patched.”

“We’re darned sure that part of the cloth was not original Shroud of Turin cloth,” he said, adding that threads from the main part of the shroud were pure linen, which is spun from flax. “

Dr Rogers says the Shroud of Turin could be from 1300 to 3000 years old. Obviously, it’s time for another round of tests.

The Iraqi government has announced the capture of two more lieutenants of terror kingpin Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. That makes three detained this month. Apparently the men were arrested a week to ten days ago. That’s an intel indicator– police and intelligence services have used the time since the arrests to follow “hot tracks” and leads. Tips lead to surveillance and arrest, then one arrest leads to another. The goal: cracking a criminal organization and getting to its leadership. Here’s an AP story via MSNBC. The article provides names but few details.

To crack the Zarqawi Klan (Ku Klux suggestion intended– it is a theo-fascist reactionary organization) means tracking men and following the money. US and coalition intelligence sources have openly discussed “money trails” runing from Persian Gulf nations and Syria to Iraq. Ultimately, defeating Zarqawi and Al Qaeda means cutting off their financial resources.

Her article and blog analysis make the case for free trade’s positive effects on productivity.

Thanks to Internet diplomacy, this blog is now cross-linked with Diplomad. For a variety of reasons Diplomad is one of my favorite sites. Developmental aid is a long-term interest of mine, and Diplomad stays on top of the entire spectrum of aid issues. Instapundit has already linked to Diplomad’s latest comments on the UN’s tsunami relief shenanigans. See my post and the Diplomad link from January 24,2005 for further background.

This week’s column is available at StrategyPage. The column expands on a couple of points I made in a recent post about the Iraqi elections, Bush’s “democracy on the offensive” strategy, and “technological compression.” Bill Buckley’s and Peggy Noonan’s tepid responses to Bush’s speech have troubled many readers. Buckley and Noonan have either missed or ignored the political challenges of instant global communications, rapid intercontinental transportation, and weapons of mass destruction. (They aren’t the only ones.) The consequence of transportation and communication: we all live next door to one another. The consequence of advanced mass destruction weaponry: a small group can kill millions of innocents. How do we craft a strategy, an integrative, implementable political vision, that accomodates this technology but protects the freedom of expression, the freedom of movement, all of the freedoms Americans cherish and demand? My column lays out the strategic case.

If any reader knows of a web log discussing or debating the technological dimensions of the Bush democracy-expanding strategy, please send me a link.

CRITIQUE OF FATIGUE–
I was disappointed with Noonan’s assessment of Bush’s speech in The Wall Street Journal. But I was more disappointed with an essay she wrote while I was deployed in Iraq last summer–and her January essay reminds me a bit of her “summer vacation” column.

Let’s return to the moment: A “media meme” flared across oped pages and the Internet, with screed from such notables as Peggy Noonan, Andrew Sullivan, and Mickey Kaus. Suddenly the pens and pundits were suffering from “war fatigue.”

My situation map: I’m west of Baghdad, the afternoon temperatures are punching 125 degree. Every morning I’m seeing 19 and 20 year old soldiers –most of them from either 1st Cavalry Division or Washington State’s 81st Brigade– gearing up for convoy duty or patrols in and around Baghdad. They’re eager, committed, energetic– the new greatest generation doing a tough job that requires steady courage and discipline. Let me repeat that key word: steady. That’s perseverence, what winning a war takes. Then I read a string of “woe is us, we’re tired” commentaries. The lit critic in me couldn’t miss the affected tones, the vague suggestion of Virginia Wolfe. What’s the term? Ah yes– Neurasthenic. Webster: “a type of neurosis, usually the result of emotional conflicts, characterized by a variety of symptoms, including fatigue, depression, worry, and often localized pains without apparent objective causes.” Noonan was on vacation in London and Sullivan’s in a hammock on Cape Cod. Tough duty. In Baghdad we had bombs, but pity these pundits– they’re tired.

I wrote a couple of emails home on this topic, including one to Glenn Reynolds. Wham– he puts it up on Instapundit. Mickey Kaus later sent me a note and told me I’d misread his “timeout” comment. Okay–it’s the danger and delight of Internet emails and blogs –instant intellectual experimentation and emotional openness. At some point this letter should become a column (possibly exploring the summer of 1944/2004 comparison):

“JULY 12, 2004

AUSTIN BAY SENDS THIS EMAIL FROM IRAQ:
I must respond to those who “want a breather” or wish “to take time out” from the war.
There is no time out in war. Occasionally soldiers get R&R, but that means someone else is pulling guard duty or running patrols. I see Mickey Kaus says “we need a break” and Peggy Noonan is worried that the American people want a breather because current history is too “dramatic.” I read Peggy’s essay and I get the distinct impression her brilliantly conceived column springs from her own personal weariness– maybe I’m wrong, but she explicitly tells us she’s on vacation. Over at andrewsullivan.com, Andrew Sullivan wrote (linking to Noonan) that he had expressed similar thoughts (”Americans are drained”). I appreciate their openness and honesty; I hope they’ll appreciate mine. I enjoy thoroughly Sullivan’s commentary, and I’m certain he would be the first to say he can climb in his Cape Cod hammock and blog because soldiers put on their helmets and slog– and don’t quit. Perceptive, honest Americans like Noonan, Sullivan, and Kaus understand that quite well. I make the point as a reminder, a useful reminder. Believe me, the hammock is far preferable to the helmet. I would love to be in my hammock in the Texas Hill Country right now (95 degrees in Austin is far cooler than 119 degrees in Baghdad). But this is helmet time. We –the lot of us, all Americans– are a long haul war, a constant test of will requiring consistent, insistent effort.
I see that effort given every day here in Iraq. Check the photo you ran of those two young soldiers from the 81st Brigade (Washington State National Guard). I snapped it, at sunset, right after they had returned from a patrol. I see the same vignette every morning, every evening. The smiles break out despite the fatigue– and then the troops buckle up and do it again. Blood, sweat, toil and tears: that’s not simply Churchillian poetry, that’s the price of victory, and it’s the product of spine. This peculiar war will take years to win, long, focused years of trial and error, mistake and success, but a breather, a time out?
“Time out” is a mirage of the chattering class. Credit Peggy’s and Andrew’s antennae for culling out the driving emotional angst behind the chatter. Hate to say it, but the call for “time out” Noonan fears may be another case of Baby Boomers who can’t separate Hollywood war from the real thing. Hollywood wars end in a couple of hours. Real earthly hells have no intermission. In current GI lingo, “the enemy has a vote” (the enemy can exercise his will, and act). Take a break and the enemy votes. On 9/11 our enemy went to the polls. We were either going to work, eating breakfast, or lollygagging in bed.
Before I head off to a meeting, let me play history prof for a second. I see several analogs between 1944 and 2004. Fact is, I started a column on that subject before I left for Iraq, but long nights on the ranges at Ft Hood spinning up for deployment left it a sketch. Imagine calling for “Time Out” right after D-Day, which broke Fortress Europe, or during Saipan, which broke the Japanese “inner ring” island defense (many in the Japanese military thought we’d never pay the price to break it). Hey, FDR, we’ve made the deep offensive penetration, can we take a break? The analogy has weaknesses, as do all historical comparisons. That being said, I think we’re in the strategic exploitation phase of this war, a hard, difficult, prolonged exploitation phase, one that requires more hammers and bricks than it does rifles and bombs.
However, we’re winning. We can’t quit.
Indeed.
UPDATE: Reader Rick Richman emails:
Can I add a postscript to Austin Bay’s perceptive email?

The rest of the world is in a bit of a “breather” and “time out” as they await the American decision on November 2. It will make a big difference whether George W. Bush is going to be around for four more months or four more years.

If they know that Bush will be there for four more years, with a mandate from the American people (earned after a campaign of unprecedented personal and political vilification by those who opposed the liberation of Iraq), decisions in Syria, Iran, North Korea and other places (including France and Germany) are going to be different.

Conversely, if the American electorate can be convinced to remove the commander-in-chief of the war on terror, to be replaced by the Education President, the Environmental President, etc. and his Two Americas vice-president, all of these other state actors will make decisions in a very different direction. They will perhaps not be able to see the subtety of a “breather” and “time out” and may mistake it for what it may in fact turn out to be: a surrender (except, of course, for the continuation of our 9/10 law enforcement and intelligence activities).

The current breather and time out is excruciating.
Indeed. I’m not sure Mickey meant quite this by his “time out” post, but perhaps he’ll clarify if he didn’t.”

NEW NOTE: I’ll come back to this, possibly in a longer essay.

Froma Harrop is one of my favorite columnists– a sharp stylist and sharp thinker. Here’s her latest column which essays the phony war between faith and science.

A telling paragraph: “In 1996, Pope John II wrote a strong letter to the Pontifical Academy of Sciences supporting the scientific understanding of evolution. That’s one reason why students in Catholic parochial schools get a more clearheaded education in evolution science than do children at many public schools racked by the evolution debate. ..American parents who want Darwin’s name erased from the textbooks might be surprised at the father of evolution’s burial spot. Darwin was laid to rest in Westminster Abbey, an Anglican church and England’s national shrine. ”

Froma frames the column around Ken Miller, a practicing Roman Catholic, professor of biology at Brown, and the author a textbook on biology. Froma quotes Miller: “I attend Mass every Sunday morning,” he said, “and I’m tired of being called an atheist.”

She adds: “…Miller does not believe that Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution contradicts the creation passages in the Bible. And he will argue the point till dawn. ”

“None of the six creative verses (in Genesis) describe an out-of-nothing, puff-of-smoke creation,” he says. “All of them amount to a command by the creator for the earth, the soil and the water of this planet to bring forth life. And that’s exactly what natural history tells us happened.” (Miller has written a book on the subject: “Finding Darwin’s God: A Scientist’s Search for Common Ground Between God and Evolution.”) ”

I’ve been a huge fan of the BBC Wolrd Service– at least I am a fan of what the BBC used to be. Now the British troops I served with call it the Baghdad Broadcasting Corporation. Pish, tut. Highway 99 has an absolutely damning post about BBC coverage of the Iraq conflict and Saddam’s WMDs. (Thanks to Instapundit for the tip.)

Diplomad posts a fascinating list documenting US aid and relief activities after the Indian Ocean tsunami. (The Aussies and Brits have dubbed it The Boxing Day Tsunami.) Go read the whole thing.

UPDATE: Check out The Daily Demarche for some pointed thoughts on immigration reform.

News organizations that put reporters in the world’s hellholes are doing their job in its finest sense — providing information from the “hearts of darkness” where the local thugs try to hide the truth. Foreign correspondents from news organizations are not, per se, in conflict with bloggers and visitors who send emails describing what they see. They are–or should be– complementary.

Leagacy media, however, don’t quite get it. This morning (January 23) I read a great post by Jeff Jarvis, “Yes it will be on the final. Jarvis attended a recent conference on the rise of web logs and internet reporting. He mentioned that Jill Abramson of the NY Times and Rick Kaplan of MSNBC “emphasized the value their large organizations bring to the world by supporting expensive — and dangerous — reporting in places like Iraq.” Jeff said he agreed. I do, too –to an extent. that So I sent him an email. I’ll excerpt from the email: “Did anyone tell Abramson and Kaplan that the internet puts a heckuva lot of reporters in dangerous places? Soldiers, aid workers, and businesspeople send back emails with “on the spot” reports and bloggers in many of these hard places also report. I have great, deep respect for news organizations who send correspondents to the hellholes, but many of the news organizations tend to gravitate to “the usual suspects” to get a story– and this is especially true when the reporters are working on a deadline or are practicing “parachute” journalism. The usual suspects are the local elites or embassy contacts, etc. –built-in spin machines.” No, I haven’t heard back yet. It looks like, based on quotes I’ve seen elsewhere on the Internet, that someone did.

Meanwhile, Roger L. Simon posted on the subject. Read his Myth of the Foreign Correspondent. And read it all. He points to the coverage of the Internet coverage of the Ukrainian revolution as an example of the Net beating the networks.

Belmont Club also weighs in on the subject, quoting Jarvis at length.

Z-Man’s been suckered. Z-Man is the troops’ nickname for Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Al Qaeda’s jefe in Iraq. Z-Man has declared a “fierce war” on democracy. Z’s taken Bush’s bait– except the Presiden’ts “bait” of promoting democracy and declaring war on tyranny and 0ppression isn’t mere bait, it’s essential American values. The ideological dimensions of the War on Terror (The Millenniumn War) were there from the get-go, but the Presiden’t inaugural address has focused them. That’s a huge step, I think, to obtaining the kind of resilient victory and secure peace the American people deserve.

My first “it’s a fight for the future” column ran in November 2001. (The link will take you to a StrategyPage archive.) Here’s a key thought from that column: “In soundbite format, the strategic collision between Bin Laden-type extremists and America may well be one of “imperial restorationist” versus “liberating reform.”

Yup– a week before the Iraqi election Zarqawi has come out in public for imperialism, in his case Islamo-fascist imperialism.

The media and blogosphere have been focusing on the philosophical and theoretical elements of Bush’s speech and America’s “democracy on the offensive” strategy. But the strategy seeks to address a very concrete issue: “technological compression.” Technological compression is a fact of 21st century existence–and it is the superglue bonding American foreign policy idealism and foreign policy pragmatism. I think my Weekly Standard article of January 3, 2005 frames it accurately: “Technology has compressed the planet, with positive effects in communication, trade, and transportation; with horrifyingly negative effects in weaponry. Decades ago, radio, phone cables on the seabed, long-range aircraft, and then nuclear weapons shrunk the oceans. September 11 demonstrated that religious killers could turn domestic jumbo jets into strategic bombers–and the oceans were no obstacles. “Technological compression” is a fact; it cannot be reversed. To deny it or ignore it has deadly consequences.” (See The Millennium War.)

The Hell Formula For The 21st Century comes at the issue from another angle. “Sept. 11 made it impossible to tolerate the wicked linkage of terrorists, rogue states and weapons of mass destruction. Terrorists plus rogue states plus WMD — that’s the formula for hell in the 21st century.”

Here are a few snippets from an AP wire story on Zarqawi’s anti-democratic diatribe: “We have declared a fierce war on this evil principle of democracy and those who follow this wrong ideology…Anyone who tries to help set up this system (ie, democracy in Iraq) is part of it…” As the AP release explains, Zarqawi is threatening Iraqi candidates and everyone who votes in Iraq.

For the moment the AP story can be found at AT&T’s website. I’ll find a more permanent link later.

UPDATE: Roger L Simon posted on Zarqawi, and linked to this article from The London Telegraph.

UPDATE 2: More discussion over at Iraq the Model.

UPDATE 3: Thanks for the links from Instapundit , powerline, and realclearpolitics . The RCP evening headline link is particularly rich. It reads “Zarqawi Declares “Fierce War” on Iraqi Democracy” –and then “Zarqawi Suckered.”

UPDATE 4: “Friends of Democracy” (an Iraqi blog) has extensive comments on Zarqawi’s statement.

ONE MORE: Emailing — please see the “E-mail” post on the main blog page about how to email me– drop me a note via Creators Syndicate’s creators.com site. As to the comment, it “looks like there might be a plan,” follow this link to “Know Your Enemy”, a column of mine dating from late January 2003. As far as I can tell it’s one of the first public airings of “Iraq as a strategic trap for terrorists.” I know some in the blogosphere started calling this “the fly-paper strategy” in April or May 2003.

A few key thoughts from that column: “If you know your enemy, the strategic challenge is to use that knowledge to force him to fight on your terms. It’s even better if that fight on your terms is a fight he cannot refuse. ”

“Strategy is always about applying one’s own strength to an opponent’s weakness. Al Qaeda’s historical pattern is to wait patiently, for years if necessary, and carefully prepare a terror operation until it’s certain of success. Prior to 9-11, with little pressure on its hidden network (succored by the Taliban, Wahhabi petro-dollars and, yes, Iraq), Al Qaeda could take its time to spring a vicious surprise attack — surprise and visionary viciousness being its strengths and the gist of its “asymmetric” challenge to America’s “symmetric” power. “Fear us, America,” was the message, “because Al Qaeda chooses the time and place of battle, and when we do you are defenseless.”
“…Which leads to the subject of decisive U.S. military action against Iraq and its role in defeating Al Qaeda. ”

“The massive American build-up around Iraq serves as a baited trap that Al Qaeda cannot ignore. Failure to react to the pending American attack would demonstrate Al Qaeda’s impotence. For the sake of their own reputation (as well as any notion of divine sanction), Al Qaeda’s cadres must show CNN and Al Jazeera they are still capable of dramatic endeavor.”

This column ran in most of the newspapers that carry it. It was out there.

An article in LAWEEKLY is making the blog rounds. I found it, with excellent commentary, on Roger L. Simon’s website. The American, European and “internationalist” Left is reactionary. I’ll add this thought– it’s reactionary because their movement is decadent. For decades they’ve substituted anger for ideas and protest for progress.

Lack of self-critique is one reason for the long-term decay. The legacy media and academia share some of the blame– they’ve served as life-support systems for the Left’s dead-end chitchat. Rather than serving as forums for genuine critique and analysis, elite media and academia all too often echo left-wing cant. Echo chambers are like yes men. First they insulate –all the victim hears is himself. Insulation, however, ultimately leads to isolation– and genuine creativity requires competitive challenge.

It’s refreshing to read an honest man “of the Left” who’s openly wrestling with the hard facts of his political faith’s pathetic decadence. (UPDATE -in response to a comment: I’ll use the word “decadence” again because it’s apt. Thanks for the catch on the misspell, though.)

Here’s the link. I’ll add more on this later today.

The President’s inaugural speech said in spades what I wish he would say every day. When I returned from Iraq I said our biggest mistake was failing to “ideologize” the war. This war is truly a fight for the future– a struggle between liberty and tyranny. (I see Instapundit quoted that particular column– here’s a link to it dated September 7, 2004. It’s in the StrategyPage.com ON POINT archive. )

Technology, tyranny, and terror are the Hell Formula of the 21st century. Bush sees that: “We have seen our vulnerability - and we have seen its deepest source. For as long as whole regions of the world simmer in resentment and tyranny - prone to ideologies that feed hatred and excuse murder - violence will gather, and multiply in destructive power, and cross the most defended borders, and raise a mortal threat. There is only one force of history that can break the reign of hatred and resentment, and expose the pretensions of tyrants, and reward the hopes of the decent and tolerant, and that is the force of human freedom.”

Here’s a line I like and I hope we live up to it: “All who live in tyranny and hopelessness can know: The United States will not ignore oppression or excuse your oppressors. When you stand for your liberty, we will stand with you.”

Bush explicitly made it US’ policy is to promote democratic institutions . America’s goal: ending tyranny in our world. Ending tyranny promotes peace, friends.

Another good line that has long-term policy implications– policies where our idealism has realpolitik payoffs in the 21st century : “We will persistently clarify the choice before every ruler and every nation: The moral choice between oppression, which is always wrong, and freedom, which is eternally right. America will not pretend that jailed dissidents prefer their chains, or that women welcome humiliation and servitude, or that any human being aspires to live at the mercy of bullies. ”

Bush argued that freedom and liberty are America’s foremost ideals. Here’s the poetry: “America’s vital interests and our deepest beliefs are now one. From the day of our Founding, we have proclaimed that every man and woman on this earth has rights, and dignity, and matchless value, because they bear the image of the Maker of Heaven and earth. Across the generations we have proclaimed the imperative of self-government, because no one is fit to be a master, and no one deserves to be a slave. Advancing these ideals is the mission that created our Nation. It is the honorable achievement of our fathers. Now it is the urgent requirement of our nation’s security, and the calling of our time. ”

UPDATE1: Here’s a link to the entire text of the President’s speech.

UPDATE2: I’m glad I didn’t hear Brian Williams say this (quote is from gaypatriot (and thanks to Instapundit for the tip):
“Brian Williams said a few minutes ago that the AP’s Ron Fornier put out a news analysis saying “Not One Word on Iraq” — or something to that effect.”

“I’m sorry, I thought the entire speech was about Iraq…and Afghanistan…and Iran…and Palestine. All Bush talked about was Freedom vs. Oppression, Democracy vs. Tyranny. The liberals just don’t get that we are in a world war on terror and Iraq was but one theater in that war. What will it take?”

Amen. The entire speech was about Iraq, and Afghanistan, and Iran– every hard corner of this planet where there’s a fight for basic human freedom. I touch on this in a recent article in The Weekly Standard’s January 3, 2005 issue, The Millennium War. (“Reinventing Iraq”, from the December 9, 2002 Weekly Standard is also worth looking at– it gives a brief treatment of post-invasion challenges, and everyone of them has occurred, unfortunately.)

UPDATE3: Gerard Baker looks at American challenges and American self-doubts– then draws the historically correct conclusion. : “What to make of all this? The first thing to note is that we have been here before. Previous premature judgments about America?s decline enjoin us to be a little circumspect about its current difficulties. Even as American pre-eminence was realised in the past 60 years, the country has been racked by prolonged periods of self-doubt. In the 1950s, half the nation was convinced it was losing the Cold War. Vietnam eroded American confidence, not only in its power but even in the justice of its cause. In 1989, the apotheosis of American success, the fall of the Berlin Wall, was seen by many as the passing of an era of American supremacy. Japan and Germany were going to rule the world, we were told. ‘

“All these alarms proved false. Will this incipient post-Iraq malaise prove to be any different? It is too early yet to declare Iraq a failure. True, the Bush Administration, and those of us who supported it, were wrong to believe that a quick show of force would bring the walls of tyranny crashing down. It will indeed be a long slog. But if the US can stay the course, the auguries are still positive. The principal obstacle to American goals there, and in the broader Middle East, is not the brittleness of US power, but the willingness of the American people to shoulder its burden. ”

Please read Baker’s entire essay which appeared in The Times of London (January 21, 2005).

The Associated Press and the Seattle Post-Intelligencer are both reporting that up to 200,000 people may have been killed in Sudan’s Darfur region.

A study team commissioned by the US interviewed Darfurian refugees in Chadian refugee camps. As the linked article notes, the 200,000 figure is a statistical estimate– but the key point is that this is an estimate for people killed by either the Sudanese military or Islamist militias. Over the last year I’ve read numerous reports that starvation and disease (secondary effects of the violence) were the biggest killers in Darfur. Sometime today I’ll write up a short item for StrategyPage on this subject. Conducting careful, sober, rigorous interviews amid the chaos and suffering of refugee camps is a real challenge, so treat the 200,000 figure with appropriate caution. However, I am certain that the death toll in Darfur is far larger than we know.

Here’s a short item I wrote for StrategyPage which first appeared on “the Page” this morning. The item speaks for itself– private war is a dangerous business. Jim Dunnigan added a postscript about Equatorial Guinea’s oil wealth and its recent history.

POTENTIAL HOT SPOTS: Equatorial Guinea

January 19, 2005: On January 13 Mark Thatcher, son of former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher, pled guilty to helping plot and finance a coup in Equatorial Guinea. Thatcher was fined $500,000, in lieu of a jail term. Thatcher was arrested in South Africa August 2004. Prosecutors said the Thatcher and his group intended to topple Equatorial Guinea’s long-time dictator, Teodoro Obiang Nguema. In March 2004 Equatorial Guinea arrested 15 alleged mercenaries inside the country and claimed the 15 were “an advance group.” 60 more men allegedly connected to the conspiracy (a follow-on force?) were arrested in the Zimbabwe. Equatorial Guinea is one of the bleakest spots in sub-Saharan Africa. The government is corrupt and cruel. The dictator has been accused of cannibalism (no kidding). The country now has large oil reserves –which means more money for the elites. This is a round about way of saying Equatorial Guinea needs a change in government. However, it is unclear who was behind the coup that Thatcher helped finance. No doubt this is a huge embarrassment for his family and particularly his mother. There is also this sidelight: Equatorial Guinea has fascinated mercenaries and adventurers for years. The miserable, fictional West African country of Zamboanga in Frederick Forsythe’s novel THE DOGS OF WAR –where a small band of mercs topples a corrupt dictator– is based on Equatorial Guinea. In Forsythe’s book, however, the mercs pull it off. (Austin Bay)

” Equatorial Guinea was a poor, and thinly populated (600,000 people), tropical dictatorship, when oil was discovered in the 1990s. By 1997, $100 million a year in oil revenue was coming in, which doubled the nations GDP. Oil revenue has since expanded five time, and most people are as poor as ever. Only a few percent of the population benefits from the oil income. President (for life, and since 1979 when he deposed his uncle) Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo rules by offering potential opponents the carrot (money) or the stick (jail or death.) There are only about 1,200 people in the armed forces, and another thousand police and security agents. All well taken care of. Generous payments are made for information about any threats to the government, and several attempted coups have been short circuited by these arrangements. “

The NY Observer’s Ron Rosenbaum delves into The Theory of Moments. Rosenbaum argues the technique moved CBS from Walter Conkite’s “that’s the way it is” to “that’s the way it feels.” Rosenbaum’s essay upbraids Dan Rather. Well, perhaps it down-braids him. There’ll be more on this subject later– I’m off to a seminar discussing security operations for missionaries and aid workers in the field.

The NY Daily News’ Michael Goodwin neatly smacks Senator Barbara Boxer for her dreadful and inexecuseable attempt to impugn Condi Rice’s integrity. Goodwin also knocks Ted Kennedy’s slurs of Alberto Gonzales.

I’ll quote one sharp Goodwin line that captures the political/historical context: “Boxer and Kennedy are living in the past, back when it was okay for limousine liberals to tell the rest of us how to live.”

Boxer and Kennedy miss the ugliness and irony of their actions: two privileged upper-class millionaires trashing young Americans who made it on brains and bootstraps. This is a bitter decadence.

StrategyPage has posted my Creators Syndicate column which looks at the upcoming Iraqi election and the terrorists’ finances.

I also speculate on Syria’s role in supporting both the Baath holdouts and Zarqawi’s Islamofascists.

MEMRI’s transcript of the televised confession of Muayed Al-Nasseri, commander of The Army of Muhammad (a Baath fascist terror gang) is a real eye opener. He explicitly claims he received money and aid from both Syria and Iraq. The interview appeared on Al-Fayhaa TV (an Iraqi channel run out of the UAE) on January 14, 2005. (Thanks to Powerline.)

While you’re at it, check out the CIA’s National Intelligence Council 2020 Project report.