Now can we please dispense with this nonsense that the base will never accept Rudy?

In the Republican primary question, Giuliani (27 percent) edges McCain (25 percent) for the leader spot, with the only other candidate to receive double-digit support being former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (14 percent).

If there were only two choices, Republicans say they would choose Giuliani (46 percent) over McCain (36 percent). Among independents, McCain (46 percent) bests Giuliani (29 percent).

By a slim 6-point margin, voters who supported President George W. Bush in the 2004 election say they would back Giuliani (43 percent) over McCain (37 percent).

Assuming the Cook/RT Strategies poll that had me doing somersaults is a bit too kind to Rudy, and that this poll is a bit too kind to McCain, Rudy’s lead in the two-man amongst Republicans is probably something on the order of 15 points.

And we’ve already seen how McCain’s support is more easily peeled off once other candidates gain name recognition.

McCainiacs could easily raise the objection that independents do vote in Republican primaries. (But alas, not in Michigan anymore.) But look at Rudy’s six point lead with the universe that supported President Bush in 2004. The 2008 primary electorate will almost certainly be no less conservative than the 2004 Bush electorate (which included plenty of independents and casual Republicans). And the more conservative the electorate, the more they detest McCain.

I remember when National Journal wouldn’t even admit that Rudy was one of the top 5 candidates for the nomination. Now, he’s cracked into their top 3, with an assist from George “Macaca” Allen — who may not even run.

Sure, National Journal still has a warped focus on gatekeeper support and endorsements – trumping the buzz, grassroots momentum, and polls that tend to cause establishment support. But slowly, they’re coming around:

The best-case scenario: (a) Bush’s base is locked to the president because of terrorism; (b) Giuliani is the natural heir on security; (c) Social conservatives don’t know Giuliani’s past or choose to ignore it; (d) He looks like the most electable Republican. We don’t have answers to the mechanical questions (money, staff, base-tending, pre-9/11 opposition), but we can’t ignore his (growing) national popularity and the fawning from bright-red conservatives. Prediction: If Giuliani gets in, he gets in late, filling that McCain-Romney vacuum.

Not sure about the getting in late part. Rudy has consistently said he would decide after the midterms. In the wake of Rudy’s 1st place Iowa showing, the latest iterations of this seems like a malicious rumor started by Romney people designed to 1) stop already committed Romneyites from giving Rudy a second look, and 2) stop Romney prospects from “keeping their powder dry” till Rudy gets in the race.

As a new media type, I’m also going to get on the Newt bandwagon a little bit. Not including Newt in their top 5 is as shortsighted as not including Rudy was. With his legitimate break into double digits nationally and his phenomenal support in the blogosphere, Newt will set the tone of the debate even if he doesn’t get the nomination.

John Hawkins of Right Wing News makes?the conservative case against Rudy Giuliani for 2008.? Hawkins’ piece largely consists of the same old anti-Rudy arguments wrapped in slightly new packaging, focusing?a lot on Rudy’s decade-old socially liberal positions on a few cultural issues, as well as his Manhattanite personal life and some nonsense about unelectability (more on that later).? As such, I think this is a great opportunity for someone to lay out the conservative case for Rudy in ‘08.? And that someone might as well be me.

Much, much more below the fold. (more…)

John Hawkins at Right Wing News has?posted a pretty thorough roundup of the blemishes in Rudy’s past social views.

The problem is that Giuliani’s platform in the 2008 primary race will differ significantly from when he was running for Mayor of NYC in the late 1980’s.

Just like Mitt?Romney- (“I believe that since Roe v. Wade has been the law for 20 years we should sustain and support it.” and?”…regardless of one’s beliefs about choice, you would hope it would be safe and legal.”); or George Allen- (“abortion should be illegal when the fetus is viable, with or without life support” and “[abortion should be legal]??when pregnancy resulted from rape or incest, when the life of the woman is endangered, and gross fetal abnormality.”) which would keep 98% of all abortions legal.

Even John McCain, who has a fairly strong Pro-Life voting record, assured an assembled group of San Francisco?newspaper editors that overturning Roe v. Wade would not be a priority in his administration.

And with apologies to Race 4 2008 reader Debbie Watson, even?Condi Rice has described herself as “reluctantly Pro-Choice”.

So who does that leave us in the 2008 field? Newt, Huckabee, and?Brownback. Does?Hawkins really believe that these are the only candidates who have a shot at the Republican nomination?

Every candidate will move to the right on a myriad of issues leading up to 2008. Rudy Giuliani included.

This issue was discussed in greater depth in a previous essay “Addressing the Abortion Meme” found here.??

Strategic Vision Florida, August 25-27, 2006

Who is your first choice for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 42%
John McCain 28%
Newt Gingrich 6%
Mitt Romney 5%
Bill Frist 2%
George Allen 2%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 12%

Not too?suprising: Rudy, McCain, & Newt- 1, 2, & 3.

More 2008 denials:

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice keeps trying, but she can’t put those questions about presidential ambitions to rest.

Rice didn’t appear to leave much wiggle room during interviews Tuesday with local newspapers and broadcasters in Salt Lake City.

“Will you run for president?” an interviewer from KUT asked Rice at the end of a brief interview.

No,” she replied. “That’s an easy one.”

The Salt Lake Tribune asked Rice what she makes of polls that place her among the top three potential Republican candidates for 2008.

“It’s flattering but that’s not for me,” Rice said. “I know what my strengths are and I know what I want to do with my life and I’m hoping that in the last two and a half years as secretary of state that I can help to advance the president’s vision for democracy.”

Rice has said she intends to return to Stanford University, where she was a professor and provost before becoming Bush’s first-term national security adviser. She took over the top diplomatic job last year.

She added another job possibility in the Tribune interview.

“Back to Stanford and teach and write or become president of the 49ers or something like that because I love sports,” Rice said.

Rice missed a chance this year to pursue what she had considered a dream job as commissioner of the NFL, because she did not want to leave her current post so soon.

KTVX-TV asked the lifelong football fan if she has any regrets.

“Just came up a little too early,” Rice said of the NFL job. “I had to let that ship come in and leave, I’m afraid. But there are other great sports jobs and after I’m done with this, we’ll see what else is out there.”

I realize that Dr. Rice cannot telegraph any presidential ambitions while she is SoS, but people have got to come to grips with the forcefulness of her denials.

It’s getting to the point where if she did somehow win the nomination, the best commercial that the Democrats could ever run against her would be video of her frequent, forecful denials of wanting the job, ending with a voiceover stating simply, “Hillary Clinton. She wants to be your President.”?

Folks — not only did that Cook/RT Stratigies Poll released yesterday show a 12 point Rudy lead in the primary, but they provided FULL crosstabs, so we can have some sense of where Rudy and McCain’s support is coming from. Just as I’ve suspected for months, Rudy’s supporters are right in the mainstream of the Republican Party, and McCain’s are considerably to the left. McCain tops out in the high teens among Republicans (with Rudy in the mid-30s), and with his 40% unfavorables with the base, a field full of candidates yet to define themselves, and with so many McCain supporters who would gladly support Rudy, this poll confirms that Rudy Giuliani is the clear frontrunner for the ‘08 GOP nomination.

Some key findings: Toplines

*Rudy Giuliani leads John McCain for the Republican nomination by 32-20%.

*Rudy Giuliani is also the most popular second choice pick, at 21-17% over McCain.

*Looking at the combined first and second choice picks, Giuliani leads McCain 53-37%.

When reminded about Rudy Giuliani’s 9/11 heroism and pressed on his more moderate positions on abortion, gay rights, and gun control, Republican primary voters agree that Giuliani should still be the nominee by a healthy 18 point margin – 56-38%.

Rudy Giuliani is George Bush’s heir apparent. McCain voters don’t much care for the President, and are unhappy with the current direction of the country.

Giuliani voters approve of Bush’s job performance 75-17%, right in line with all Republicans and Republican leaners. McCain voters are fundamentally out of step with the Republican Party, with a tepid 59-28% approval margin.*Giuliani voters see the country moving in the right direction by 63-30%. Republicans + leaners say right direction 59-34%. For McCain voters, the right direction/wrong track number is a negative 44-50%.

*Giuliani voters are more positive towards President Bush personally. 28% of them give the President a thermometer ranking of 90 or above, vs. 20% for McCain supporters.

Rudy: Popular with the Republican base, with more potential to grow

*Giuliani’s “thermometer” rating among Republicans is 13 points higher than McCain – 70 to 57.*38% of Republicans give McCain a rating lower than 50 on the thermometer. Just 16% of Republicans rate Giuliani below 50.

*Giuliani leads the primary ballot test among Republicans by 17 points – 35-18%. McCain leads amongst independents by 1%.

*Rudy Giuliani leads John McCain in the South by 29-18%.

Giuliani supporters are more Republican than McCain supporters

15% of McCain supporters plan to vote Democrat in this fall’s midterm elections, compared to 2% of Giuliani supporters.*82% of Giuliani supporters consider themselves Republicans. Just 69% of McCain supporters consider themselves Republicans.

Who takes from whom?

People who do not want Rudy Giuliani to be the nominee are more split among rival campaigns: McCain 24%, Gingrich 13%, Giuliani 11%, Frist 11%, Allen 8%, Romney 7%.*Rudy Giuliani is the second choice of 50% of McCain supporters. McCain is the second choice of 32% of Giuliani supporters.

*McCain voters feel comfortable with Giuliani – the ex-NYC Mayor trails McCain by just 10 points among McCain voters – 76 to 66. Giuliani voters are more enthusiastic about their candidate, at 82, and are cooler towards McCain, giving him a 57 – a 25 point gap between the two candidates.

Demographics

*Rudy Giuliani receives his strongest thermometer rating in the South and Great Lakes, at 62.4 percent.*Younger and middle aged voters seem to favor Giuliani – older voters are more likely to favor McCain.

*McCain’s supporters are 62% male.

Hizzoner was in the Twin Cities last night to raise money for Senate candidate Mark Kennedy. Rudy was the featured speaker at even which also included Sen. Norm Coleman and Rep. John Kline.

This is the second time that I have heard Hizzoner speak at one of these small fundraisers, and I can tell you that he has not failed to impress.

The main point that I hope I can convey here is how, unlike another 2008 frontrunner, Rudy always speaks in terms of what it means to be a Republican. He reinforces our core beliefs and our strengths as a political party. He talks with pride about what it means to be a Republican, and draws sharp contrasts between our party and our opponents.

Rudy spoke of a “clear dividing line” between Republicans and Democrats, and what the consequences of losing in November will mean for the conservative agenda.

The Global War on Terror was the first such issue he discussed. Hizzoner stressed that maintaining a Republican majority would mean the difference between staying on the offense against terrorism, or going on defense and waiting for our country to be attacked.

Next he discussed Taxes, and underscored how Republicans understand that cutting taxes and decreasing regulation lead to more jobs and a stronger economy. Rudy stressed that revenues have increased since the Bush tax cuts, not decreased.

After his speech, the speakers took some Q&A from the assembled guests. What was discussed in this session really gives us insight as to what “Rudy 2008″ will look like; and it’s not good news for Rudy’s 2008 Republican primary challengers.

The first question from the crowd was regarding (no surprise) Illegal Immigration. Rudy essentially gave three steps that need to be enacted in any immigration reform legislation. The first step is to seal the borders. Secondly, there needs to be a mechanism for those who are here illegally to come forward so that we can identify who they are and screen them for criminals and potential terrorists. Thirdly, any immigration reform measure would have to included an English language requirement to foster assimilation into American Culture.

Seems to me that this is exactly what the vast majority of Americans want: Seal the borders first!, Screen out the criminals, the drug dealers, and potential terrorists; and require anyone who stays to learn our language and assimilate.

The million dollar question (in my humble opinion) was asked by myself next- the importance of strict constructionist judges in reforming the federal judiciary.

Rudy absolutely hit this one out of the park. My wife had to talk me down from a ledge upon my return last night after I realized that my audio recorder was broken and I did not get this speech on tape. But rest assured, Rudy is as far to the right on judges as anyone in the American Conservative Movement. Imagine a far more eloquent George W. Bush on the issue.

The money quote:

“I don’t understand how you cannot be for strict constructionist judges” (emphasis Rudy’s).

Rudy spoke of his time as a federal prosecutor and how he knows from experience the importance of this issue. He spoke glowingly of Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Sam Alito (I believe he mentioned something to the effect of “You have to be happy with the President’s choices of Roberts and Alito” [emphasis Rudy's]). He ended this discussion by stressing that law is to be made by legislatures, not judges who base their opinions on how they happen to feel that day.

Last night provided a tantalizing glimpse into Rudy’s potential 2008 platform. From what I heard it can be summarized in this way: Stay on offense in the War on Terror; Continue the Bush tax cuts and continue to decrease government regulation of business; Seal the borders first, get rid of the felons, drug dealers, and potential terrorists, and require anyone who stays to learn the English Language; and nominate strict constructionist judges like John Roberts and Sam Alito.

Sounds like a winner to me.

***Welcome Real Clear Politics Readers!

For Senatorial candidate Mark Kennedy- and Race 4 2008 will be there!

Stop by tomorrow for complete coverage of the event!?

From Human Events:

According to one Virginia GOP source who requested anonymity, “The No.1 debate in the Allen campaign these days is whether George should announce that if re-elected to the Senate this year, he will forgo a run for President in ‘08.” The same source told Human Events that the faction in the Allen camp wanting him to take this course “is led by [Washington attorney and longtime Allen confidant] Frank Atkinson and the faction that wants him to keep alive a bid for President is headed by [wife] Susan Allen.”

If Susan Allen is pushing him to stay in the race, chances are against him preemptively dropping out.

Lord knows I do everything my wife tells me!

Thanks To Race 4 2008 reader Peter Stevens for the tip!

Not exactly the best birthday news for the?Senator. McCain pollster Charlie Cook’s latest shows Rudy up by 12 pts. in the race for the GOP nomination.

In even worse news, when respondents are informed of Rudy’s social views, GOP’ers say “nominate him anyway” by 18%!

From the RT Strategies Poll, August 25-27, 2006:

GOP WH ‘08 Primary Matchup (1st choice?- 2nd choice)

R. Giuliani 32% 21%
J. McCain 20 17
N. Gingrich 10 10?
B. Frist 8 8
M. Romney 5 6
G. Allen 4 2
T. Tancredo 3 2
M. Huckabee 2 2
G. Pataki 1 2
S. Brownback 1 1
C. Hagel — 2 1
Other/undec 14 13

————————————————————-

Thinking about Rudy Giuliani, some people say he really cleaned up NYC as Mayor and made it a safer place, and then he showed real courage as
a leader after the attack on the WTC.

Other people say that his views on some issues — because he is pro-choice on abortion, and supports gun control and gay rights — make
it hard for them to support him for Pres.

Which Is Closer To Your View? (GOPers only) Now 2/26

GOPers should nominate Giuliani for pres. 56% 50%
GOPers should not nominate Giuliani for pres. 38 43

————————————————————-

On A 0-100 Scale, How Much Do You
Like ___ As A Person? (Mean)

R. Giuliani 59.4

J. McCain 54.8

J. Edwards 49.1

J. Kerry 44.9

H. Clinton 43.9

The Arizona Republic ponders the effect of Senator McCain’s age and the 2008 election:

Sen. John McCain marks his 70th birthday today, a factor that he and his supporters hope won’t discourage many happy returns when the nation picks a new president.

Election Night returns, that is.

Forget a birthday party. This is about the Republican Party and the Arizona senator’s chances of becoming the GOP’s standard-bearer against a field of likely younger candidates in 2008 and then winning the White House to become the nation’s oldest first-term president ever.

Whether McCain’s age becomes an issue if he runs in two years, when he turns 72, may depend on whether voters see him as not only politically fit for the job but simply fit: healthy enough to take on the rigors of the Oval Office.

Ronald Reagan broke the age barrier when he ran and won his first term at age 69 and then his second term at 73.

I do not believe that age will be a factor for Sen. McCain in the 2008 race. The voting populace itself is aging, so any mention of the Senator’s age as a negative runs the risk of upsetting this key voting bloc.

Secretary of State Condi Rice is in Salt Lake City today, causing the Salt Lake Tribune to?speculate on 2008:

For many Republicans, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is the reason to hope.

She is the answer for GOP plans to continue the Bush White House legacy. More importantly, she’s the conservative woman to put a stop to Hillary Clinton.

Rice brushes off such speculation, saying she has no plans to run.

But as the nation’s top diplomat stops in Salt Lake City today to speak to the American Legion convention, making the case for the Bush administration’s foreign policy and wars, the political prognosticating inevitably follows.

At home, her clothing and haircuts are dissected as a political makeover, a deliberate strategy to soften her image.

In March, she deflected NBC commentator Tim Russert’s repeated questions about a presidential bid.

“I don’t want to run for president of the United States,” she said then. “I have no intention of doing so. I don’t think I will be president of the United States ever.”

Her protests haven’t discouraged supporters – thye call thmselves “Condistas” – who still hold out hope. On RunRice2008.com, you can sign a petition asking Rice to run.

Despite that hype, Utah Sen. Bob Bennett says the chances that Rice would run for president are slim – if only because she has never held elected office before. Other secretaries of state who went on to the White House, including Thomas Jefferson and James Madison, had previous political experience. Bennett says comparing a Rice campaign with that of Eisenhower, a war hero who stepped down as president of Columbia University to run, is wrong.

“There’s nothing more political than the U.S. military,” Bennett said. “She would have to run for something else first. You don’t do on-the-job training running for president. And for Condie(sic) to try to do it would be a mistake.”

Kelly Patterson, director of Brigham Young University’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, said there are more practical obstacles to Rice’s candidacy – including timing. Rice technically has a few more months to make up her mind.

But entering the race less than a year before the 2008 primaries is self-defeating, Patterson said.

“You never say never in politics. But the cycle now almost determines for you whether you run,” Patterson said. “She hasn’t missed it yet. But it’s quickly approaching.”

Not a lot of new information in the article, but it’s probably an accurate?description of the state of things concerning drafting Dr. Rice.?

Strategic Vision Washington, Aug 25-27, 2006

For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Republicans Only)Rudy Giuliani 40%
John McCain 28%
Mitt Romney 7%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Bill Frist 3%
George Allen 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 13%

Rudy Giuliani 40%John McCain 28%Mitt Romney 7%Newt Gingrich 5%Bill Frist 3%George Allen 1%Rick Santorum 1%George Pataki 1%Chuck Hagel 1%Undecided 13%Strategic Vision Michigan, Aug 25-27, 2006

For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Republicans Only)John McCain 35%
Rudy Giuliani 25%
Mitt Romney 15%
Newt Gingrich 4%
George Allen 2%
Bill Frist 2%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 14%

John McCain 35%Rudy Giuliani 25%Mitt Romney 15%Newt Gingrich 4%George Allen 2%Bill Frist 2%George Pataki 1%Rick Santorum 1%Chuck Hagel 1%Undecided 14%

Free Republic,?the right-side of the right-side of the blogosphere, is hosting an online poll asking members which Republican they’d vote for if the 2008 field narrowed to just Rudy, Romney, and McCain.? The results would be astonishing if it weren’t for the latest GOP Bloggers straw poll, which illuminates the outcome considerably.?

The choices of Freepers are as follows:

Rudy: 45%

Romney: 29%

McCain: 4%

Free Republic is an ultra-conservative site, which means these pro-life, pro-gun, religious conservatives are selecting pro-choice Rudy Giuliani over pro-life Mitt Romney by double-digits, and this is occurring prior to any indication by the mayor that he intends to change his social positions or even appoint conservative judges.? If Romney can’t beat Rudy among the most conservative Republicans now, he’ll never be able to do so.? And McCain appears to be a mere afterthought.

The reason for Romney’s dilemma is that he and Rudy have their base in the same bloc of GOP voters: those who prefer a candidate who’s fiscally conservative, well-spoken, an executive, a partisan, and a candidate a bit less regional than the current president.? As the recent GOP Bloggers straw poll showed, both Rudy and Romney have similar net acceptability ratings.? What the poll doesn’t show, but what can be inferred, is that the two candidates are being found acceptable by all the same conservatives.? Unfortunately for Mitt, it’s Rudy, and not Romney, that is the first choice of this particular bloc of GOP voters.? A Giuliani implosion may allow Romney to pick up the pieces of his campaign, but absent that, Romney will never be able to beat Giuliani in a head-to-head matchup.

We see more evidence for this theory when looking at the other candidates that Giuliani and Romney voters in the GOP Bloggers poll found acceptable.? Giuliani voters like Romney.? Romney voters like Giuliani.??And that large Newt bloc I discussed earlier doesn’t appear ready to consolidate behind Mitt should Gingrich stay out of the race.? If anything, this group finds Rudy more acceptable?than Romney.? Again, Mitt just can’t win.

Mitt appears to be the one who’d benefit the most if Rudy pulled out of the race.? But Rudy’s not going anywhere.? And despite Romney’s two-year attempt to trumpet socially conservative causes to build a red-state base, it appears that Romney’s current status is the second-choice of Giuliani voters.?

Ah well, there’s always vice president.

Senator McCain will be meeting with Tory leaders :

John McCain, the popular Republican senator and likely US presidential contender, has agreed in principle to speak at the Conservatives’ annual conference in October, underlining the restoration of the party’s international credibility.

Securing Mr McCain as the star turn in Bournemouth would be a coup for David Cameron, who has paid little attention to world affairs since becoming Tory leader in December and has not yet been to Washington.

The Arizona senator is the frontrunner in the race to become the Republican candidate for the 2008 presidential election and has been a sharp critic of aspects of the Bush administration’s war on terror.But the Tories are likely to bill Mr McCain as the coming man, with whom Mr Cameron could eventually do business if both were to win power. “They can have a previous president,” said a senior Conservative figure. “We’ll have the next one.”

British Conservatives may want to start following US politics a little more closely?before crowning our next president for us.

Bobward at Crosstabs does it much better than I ever could:

The whole idea of a statistically valid sample, i.e. one that represents the broader universe being sampled within an accepted error margin, is that a) each member of the survey universe has an equal chance at being selected in the sample, and b) the sample is selected at random.

Interactive surveys – or online surveys driven by email from a panel of pre-screened participants – such as those Zogby uses, completely ignore the first tenent of polling. Every member of the universe (in this case, voters) does NOT have an equal chance of being selected. A sample from his email panel produces at best a survey of his entire panel of participants.

To be sure, telephone polling has its limitations, and it grows less reliable every day. As more and more people move to mobile phones as their primary phone, and call screening and blocking enjoy wider practice, every voter having an equal chance being reached gets muddied. One phenomenon that has delayed this impact on campaign polling is that the age group most likely to eschew land line phones are also the least likely to vote – young adults. But the limitations of telephone polling are nowhere near those of opt-in email panels.

The truth is that on-line surveys are CHEAP, and that is why the media loves them. You don’t pay for trained interviewers, phone center managers, quality control, long distance telephone time, etc. You program a web site and send email. The cost difference is night and day.

I know my comrades here at Crosstabs.org regularly dismiss the Zogby Interactive numbers, and well they should. While they may be interesting, they have nothing to do with statistically projectable survey research.

This badly:

(Columbia-AP) August 28, 2006 – Arizona Senator John McCain says he would consider accepting an invitation to speak at Bob Jones University in Greenville.

McCain criticized leaders at the fundamentalist college in 2000 during a nasty Republican presidential primary that he lost to George W. Bush.

McCain criticized Bush’s decision to speak at the school, known at the time for its ban on interracial dating and its anti-Roman Catholic views.

McCain told a Columbia newspaper he would consider speaking at the school now.

McCain is considering a try for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.

He says he would look at the school’s latest policy statements. McCain says he thinks Bob Jones has made what he calls “considerable progress.

Despite whatever I may personally feel about Bob Jones Unversity, at least McCain is making further efforts to reach out to the Religious Right.

Now if he can just keep the disparaging comments to himself, he might actually get to keep whatever ground he’s made up with that community.

Well, the results?are in?w/r/t the latest edition of the GOP Bloggers 2008 straw poll.? With over nine thousand votes cast from self-selected online Republicans and conservatives, Rudy Giuliani is now the clear frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination.? The good mayor has surpassed both George Allen and Newt Gingrich to attain the highest net postive acceptability rating among online Republicans — a status mirrored in Gallup’s most recent poll on the subject — and is now the first choice of a plurality of online conservatives, likely Iowa caucus goers, and national Republicans.? Combined with his heir apparent status in a party that almost always nominates heirs apparent, Giuliani’s frontrunner status is now as official as it could possibly be, and absent the entry of a dark-horse conservative into the race with the qualities of a Newt Gingrich, Mayor Giuliani will almost certainly garner the Republican nod in 2008.

Read on to find out how I reached these explosive conclusions. (more…)

Considering the fact that Allen won this poll on a fairly regular basis before the “macaca” incident, we can clearly?see how much this controversy?has injured him. If his?support has dropped this much among the right-leaning blogosphere, what has it done to him with the general public?

GOP Bloggers?2008 Straw Poll (August 2006)?

Giuliani 24.6% (22.0%)

Gingrich 21.1% (19.5%)

Romney 12.8% (15.8%)

Allen 11.5% (11.3%)

Tancredo 6.7% (4.5%)

McCain 6.4% (6.7%)

Hagel 2.8% (3.3%)

Brownback 2.5% (3.2%)

Huckabee 1.5% (1.8%)

Frist 1.1% (0.9%)

Pataki 0.3% (0.3%)

Wow… Rudy beats Newt in a poll of the right-leaning blogosphere. No one can deny that Giuliani has had an awesome two-weeks.??

I would not put too much weight on this poll considering that Jeb Bush was included, along with the fact that I am unsure of their polling methods. The results however, are interesting:

ChristiaNet.com, the world’s largest Christian portal with twelve million monthly page loads, recently gathered opinions about potential 2008 Presidential candidates. In a closed poll of 681 registered Christian voters, ChristiaNet asked voters who they would and absolutely would not vote for in the upcoming Presidential elections. Those participating could select from three democratic possibilities, three republican possibilities, or place a vote of uncertainty, if undecided.

The possible Republican candidate choices were Jeb Bush, Rudolph Giuliani, and John McCain. Bush received 44% of the votes; Giuliani and McCain each received 28%. The Democratic candidate choices included Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, and John Kerry. Clinton received 53% of the votes as the Democratic candidate hopeful, with Gore at 26% and Kerry trailing at 21%.

When pollers responded to the question of who they would not vote for, Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush were, once again, the forerunners. Seventeen percent of those polled indicated that they would not vote for Jeb Bush and 46% of pollers stated opposition towards Hillary Clinton. Results from a recent Gallup Poll support the polarized views. “All in all, the public is just about as likely … to come up with positive views of Clinton as they are to come up with negative views,” Gallup reported in a survey conducted June 26-29.

Which candidate?had the lowest negatives?

Giuliani received the least amount of unfavorable votes at 2.5%. Based on his low negative scores, Rudy Giuliani still has an opportunity to define himself to the American people. Giuliani could prove to be a contender come election time.?

As the days go by, Iowa looms larger. What is currently?the most important 2008 buzzword? Ethanol:

Over a dozen potential presidential candidates have poured into Iowa this month and most made a point to mention their support of ethanol and the state’s other energy projects. Republican Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the U.S. House, told a crowd at the State Fair that ethanol’s time has arrived because the influence of so-called “big oil” has waned in Washington with pump prices at about three-dollars-a-gallon.

“We actually have to encourage ordinary Americans to understand the significance and the importance of it to their ordinary lives, not just the $3 a gallon price they’re paying at the pump, but what it’s doing to their country,” Vilsack said. “What this really needs to be is an issue of patriotism, building a stronger America and a more secure America.”

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, a Democrat who served as U.S. Energy Secretary for President Clinton, was in Iowa last week and he made a pitch not only for ethanol, but other “renewable” forms of energy.”It’s not just that we become more energy efficient by using solar, wind, biomass, ethanol,” Richardson said. “It creates jobs — technology jobs, High-wage jobs. They’d be created right here in Iowa.” Richardson declared Iowa the center for renewable energy.

Suprise! Senator McCain is now?touting Ethanol’s promise:

Even Republican John McCain, the Arizona Senator who opposes the federal tax break for ethanol, spoke in favor of the fuel during a speech in Grinnell on August 15th. “My position on ethanol was (and) is support of ethanol when oil went over $40 a barrel. I do not support subsidies but I support ethanol and I think it is a vital, a vital alternative energy source not only because of our dependency on foreign oil but its greenhouse gas reduction effects,” McCain said.

McCain declared himself a “strong” supporter of ethanol.

The polls are really starting to get to be a yawner. How many more national polls will there be showing a Rudy-McCain race, with everyone else in single digits? As State29 said in critiquing the Iowa poll:

Remember, Iowa is the state where Pat Robertson got nearly 25% in 1988. Pat Buchanan got over 23% in 1996. And both Alan Keyes and Gary Bauer received 14% each in 2000. Without a poll showing 25% to 30% of Iowa Republicans going for some religious nut or fringe wacko, I consider it null and void.

The point is well taken. In every Presidential election since time immemorial, someone who was polling in asterisks went on to make waves. In 1980, it was George H.W. Bush; in 1988, Pat Robertson; in 1996, Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes, in 2000, John McCain. In terms of winning the big enchilada, these candidates have a collective batting average of .000, but they posed serious challenges to the frontrunners.

It seems inevitable that a more conservative candidate will rise to challenge one of the two “moderates” on top. And with dual frontrunners, one of the two top dogs will likely be crowded out to make way for the traditional frontrunner vs. challenger dynamic. But whom? Rudy — whose pro-life supporters will desert him once they find out his super secret (ht: DaveG) social views? Or McCain — frontrunner in all things tactical, but dead last in the hearts and minds of the grassroots?

There is polling out there that gives us a hint at the answer, and what a field with Romney or Huckabee at 20% might look like.

Over the past several months in its state polls, Strategic Vision has been test driving two or three versions of its ballot test question, primarily introducing Condi Rice on a second question. I have been critical of this practice with respect to the fact that it will depress support for the “new” candidate. But if it’s not the actual level of support for Condi Rice that matters so much as which candidate she tends to steal support from, then it can be a window into the ebb and flow of support in this wide open field.

In a sample of 13 Strategic Vision state polls taken since April, the results were as follows:

Ballot without Condi: Giuliani 37.4%, McCain 27.1% (Giuliani lead of 10.3%)
Ballot with Condi: Giuliani 34.3%, McCain 21.0%, Rice 12.2% (Giuliani lead of 13.4%)
Condi Effect: Giuliani -3.1%, McCain -6.1%

So Condi Rice would take twice as many votes from McCain as from Rudy. The 3% swing to Rudy should be more like 5% when you take into account how depressed Condi’s vote share is using this technique. These results were consistent across the sample, with only one of the thirteen polls showing her pulling more from Giuliani.

Now, we take Secretary Rice on her word that she’s not running, and I’m not realistically suggesting using her as a spoiler candidate. But the effect she has on McCain is significant because Condi’s support in polls comes primarily from conservatives — the same audience that Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Sam Brownback are courting aggressively.

Last week’s Pew survey highlighted this same point. Among conservatives, she actually led, with 23%. But her support among moderate-to-liberal Republicans and all voters was a notch lower, 18%. As the only recognizable “Bush heir” in the field, she has the kind of support that any conservative challenger would need to duplicate to have a shot.

And if I’m the campaign pollster for Mitt Romney, I’m thinking that those voters are much more easily peeled off from John McCain.

I e-mailed David Johnson of Strategic Vision to ask if I was heading in the right direction. Here was his response:

Every piece of polling evidence that we have from our statewide polls show that Rudy Giuliani and not John McCain is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2008 regardless of who else is in the race. In only one state does McCain outpoll Giuliani — Michigan — and that can be attributed to the residual effect of McCain’s victory in the state in 2000. However, in that state, Romney is on the rise and he is taking voters away from McCain not Giuliani. At this time, it appears that Romney is emerging as the candidate to break out of the pack and take on Giuliani and McCain. (emphasis added)

So, in scenarios where both Rice and Romney grab a higher share of the vote, they take more from McCain. As Romney rises, McCain falls and Rudy stays steady, setting up a Giuliani vs. Romney battle for Iowa and New Hampshire. The scenario I laid out with McCain struggling to keep his head above water (20% support) by July of ‘07 is being telegraphed by this early polling.

I also asked Johnson what danger there was Rudy would implode once his social views were known. Again, that dog won’t hunt — and combined with the other findings, it would seem that pro-lifers are shopping around for a better advocate than McCain.

What is interesting is that McCain’s support fluctuates back and forth while Guiliani’s stays solid and rises slightly in our various polls. When we have identified Guiliani’s social position in polls in the South, he continues to hold his own or slightly outpoll McCain.

Johnson further attributes this to social conservatives wanting a strong leader who would continue the war on terror. (This is certainly borne out in the Iowa poll, which shows the war outstripping moral values as a concern by 3 to 1.) Johnson also brings up a fascinating historical parallel: conservatives were first attracted to Ronald Reagan for his foreign policy views, not his social conservatism. In fact, when he ran in 1976, his record on social issues could have been considered quite liberal, since he signed one of the most permissive abortion laws in the nation as Governor of California.

All this said — Don’t get cocky. I don’t think John McCain will be around to bother us in February ‘08, but that doesn’t mean we won’t face an even more formidable challenger. Post Macaca, that looks like it will be Mitt Romney.

This article?is from Ross Gittell, the James R. Carter professor at the University of New Hampshire’s Whittemore School of Business and Economics via the New Hampshire Union Leader:

The state need not be first, or even second, in the Presidential primaries to be an important factor in the nomination process. Its economic standing, its political heritage and traditions, its continuing high level of citizen engagement, its voters’ questioning and testing of candidates, and its current standing as one of the few contested states all combine to make it an ideal testing ground for presidential candidates.

For example, suppose Hillary Clinton won the Iowa and Nevada caucuses before the New Hampshire primary in 2008. She’d still have to win in New Hampshire to move toward an early lock on the nomination. What if Clinton lost in Iowa and Nevada? By then winning New Hampshire, she could generate momentum and bring many comparisons to her husband’s 1992 role as the “comeback kid.” If Mark Warner or another dark-horse candidate won or did surprisingly well in New Hampshire he would generate attention and establish himself as a legitimate candidate regardless of his performance in Iowa and Nevada.

On the Republican side, if John McCain lost the New Hampshire primary, there’d be questioning of why he won the state against George W. Bush in 2000 but couldn’t win it in 2008. If Rudy Giuliani won or did better than expected in New Hampshire, he would establish himself as a legitimate candidate, regardless of his performance in the first two caucuses.

So don’t expect Mitt Romney or John Kerry to forget the roadways from Massachusetts to New Hampshire, or Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani or George Pataki not to scuttle back and forth between New York and New Hampshire if the Democratic and Republican national parties change the Presidential nomination schedule. New Hampshire can continue to be a field of dreams for Presidential candidates, and rightfully so.

I am genuinely saddened that the Dems have decided to do this to?New Hampshire. The Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary are examples of what?is right about the way Americans elect their President.

For problems, let’s look to the roles played by the?527’s and the MSM…?

Politics certainly has the ability to?create some?unusual alliances:

It was only a matter of time before some Democrats began jumping ship to join the all-but-announced McCain for President campaign.

The first casualty is Nicco Mele, the former webmaster of the groundbreaking Dean for America campaign. According to The Hotline, Mele, whose firm Echo Ditto represents over twenty Democratic and progressive causes, has agreed to become one of McCain’s key online strategists.

The move has caused a fury in the blogosphere since it was reported last night. Mele recently posted this blog in his defense:

A lot of people are asking me about John McCain. When I worked for Common Cause, I worked on the McCain-Feingold bill and worked closely with Sen. John McCain’s office. After Sen. McCain lost the Republican primary in 2000, I traveled with him as part of a group of campaign finance reform staffers as we criss-crossed the country working to secure support for the McCain-Feingold bill. I have long admired Sen. McCain’s work on campaign finance reform and his independent streak. If Sen. McCain runs for president, he’s got my support.

If you get a chance, head on over to the latest self-selected, unscientific, online GOP ‘08 straw poll being hosted by PoliPundit.? With a few hundred votes in, Rudy leads the pack by a mile, with Newt coming in second, and Romney a distant third.? No other candidate garners more than ten percent of the vote, including the once-champion of online polls, George Allen.? Giuliani and Allen usually clean up in these things; now, Allen is relegated to Huckabee/Brownback/Frist status while Newt, Rudy, and Romney battle for the nod.? And, as usual, McCain barely registers amongst actual conservative voters, despite the CW of the Beltway establishment and the squishy “Republican leaners” who lend the senator their support in the scientific polls.

Incidentally, it’s hard to imagine a Rudy/Gingrich/Romney race, if only because the three candidates occupy so much of the same space.? The differences between them are minimal, and I suspect what conservatives really want is someone with Rudy’s gravitas and can-do spirit, Newt’s intellect and communication skills, and Mitt’s executive experience and strong social conservatism.? And if Republicans had a candidate with all of that, they’d have, well, Ronald Reagan.

…why John McCain will not be the Republican nominee:

John McCain Tries Maverick Again, Slams Bush

John McCain (R-AZ) dusted off his ‘maverick’ label yet again and the one-time staunch defender of the Iraq war slammed the Bush administration for misleading Americans into believing the conflict would be “some kind of day at the beach.”

“I think one of the biggest mistakes we made was underestimating the size of the task and the sacrifices that would be required,” McCain said. “Stuff happens, mission accomplished, last throes, a few dead-enders. I’m just more familiar with those statements than anyone else because it grieves me so much that we had not told the American people how tough and difficult this task would be.”

McCain said that talk “has contributed enormously to the frustration that Americans feel today because they were led to believe this could be some kind of day at the beach, which many of us fully understood from the beginning would be a very, very difficult undertaking.”

So McCain urges Americans to stay the course in Iraq, but his contribution is to publically?slam our Commander-In-Chief, thereby giving the Democrats and liberal MSM more ammo to undermine the war effort.

It’s one thing to say that you disagree with Dubya’s Iraq strategy, It’s quite another to say that he?was intentionally misleading. The difference is apparently lost on McCain.??

New Hampshire treasures it’s primary. The party that threatens NH’s?tradition runs this risk:

In the words of a Boston Globe columnist, New Hampshire is having a “hissy fit” about the Democrats’ addition of more states to the early primary calendar.

New Hampshire Union Leader Publisher Joseph McQuaid calls Howard Dean “the Number One liar” in the Democratic party: “Given how tight national elections have become, we expect New Hampshire’s four electoral votes will be quite the prize. And we imagine the Republicans will be reminding voters here just what the Democratic Party thinks of our little state and our little primary.”?

I refuse to discuss any Zogby International poll in a serious context for reason obvious to anyone familiar with that outfit. Hard to believe that they could strain their shoddy reputation any further, well:

Someone like Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo could do surprisingly well in the 2008 Republican presidential contest, a unique “blind bio” poll found.

With two years to go before the two major parties’ presidential nominating conventions, the polling outfit Zogby International decided to do something different this summer to gauge the strength of the would-be candidates.

The pollsters didn’t ask about candidates by name. Instead, they read brief biographies of various would-be contenders and then asked people to pick their favorites.

Tancredo, the Littleton Republican dubbed “Candidate J,” finished fourth on the Republican side with 9.9 percent of the tally.

He finished behind “Candidate G,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, with 21.4 percent; Sen. John McCain of Arizona, 13.3 percent; and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, 11.2 percent.

So we have Zogby?selectively choosing tiny segments?of a candidate’s past?to present to respondents?in this poll.

I strongly disagree that a?three-sentence distillation of a candidate’s history can tell us anything regarding how voters will actual feel about a candidate once the campaigning starts.

Sadly, this is sloppy work is what comes out of Zogby these days.