I am currently on a short break/hiatus from politics, so I haven’t had time to post or comment in recent days, but I wanted to give a quick update on a very strong pickup for Fred Thompson in California…

Today, at a press conference in Sacramento, California, Senator Fred Thompson announced State Senator Tom McClintock as his California State Chair as well as eleven other Republican legislators who will serve as state co-chairs.

First elected to the California State Assembly at age 26, Senator Tom McClintock has been involved in California state politics since the mid-1970s. He has served as Ventura County Republican Party Chair, state Assemblyman, state Senator, and is a former head of the Claremont Institute’s Golden State Center for Policy Studies. He is widely considered the most recognized conservative politician in California and is a strong leader among social and fiscal conservatives within the state.

“Like many Americans, it has been a long time since I’ve felt that I could trust a presidential candidate to respect our Constitution, defend our borders, reduce the burdens of government on our families, and restore that uniquely American vision of individual freedom – and who at the same time has the natural ability to reach the millions of voters who feel that neither party stands for these principles any longer,” said Senator McClintock. “For the first time in 20 years, I believe that such a candidate has stepped forward. And I am here today to pledge my whole-hearted support for Fred Thompson’s candidacy for President of the United States.”

“I am so pleased to have Senator Tom McClintock serving as my California State Chair. Tom and I share a mutual belief in the fundamental role of government and the common sense conservative principles of low taxes, border security, and the protection of life,” said Senator Thompson. “I am also proud to have these other Republican leaders serving my campaign and look forward to working with them and Senator McClintock in spreading our message of consistent conservatism across California and throughout the nation.”

McClintock

Hope everyone is doing well and I’ll be back before too long…

Here’s Hizzoner’s reaction to last night’s debate from his interview with Sean Hannity:

SEAN HANNITY: “Let me start with the Democrats blasting you. You were a big name last night in the debate even though you weren’t there. I’m sure you’re aware of it by now.”

MAYOR GIULIANI: “Sean, we claimed victory in last night’s debate. I think I was the clear winner since I got mentioned more than the Democrats got mentioned and I didn’t make a mistake. I didn’t say that I saw an unidentified flying object. I didn’t give two internally contradictory answers to one question. Never seen that before. I’ve seen Hillary, you know do a southern accent in the South and talk like a New Yorker in New York and take two different positions on Iran and six different positions on Iraq , but I never saw her take two different positions in one minute in front of the same audience.”

HANNITY: “It’s priceless isn’t it?”

MAYOR GIULIANI: “No, I think that we should just keep that tape. It says everything that Obama and Edwards were trying to say about her not being able to take and stick with a position. It is-I’ve never seen that in a presidential debate. I’ve seen a lot of things go wrong, but I’ve never seen anybody say two totally contradictory things about a simple subject – either for or against driver’s licenses for illegals. This is not like a really complex question.”

HANNITY: “Well, she equivocated on a number of issues here including the answer on Social Security. A blue ribbon commission?”

MAYOR GIULIANI: “She usually gets out of it by saying, ‘I don’t answer hypothetical questions. These are complex matters of war and peace, life and death.’ Give me a break. A driver’s license is not. You either are for it or against it. Obama was able to get the answer out. He said he’s for it. I’m against it. Ok. We can debate that. I can respect the disagreement. But that kind of game they play. I mean this is the worst of the Clinton years coming back, I think, to kind of stare her in the face.” …

Happy Halloween Everyone!

They hit every one of these out of the park:

Pew Research GOP National Primary

• Rudy Giuliani 31% (32%)
• John McCain 18% (15%)
• Fred Thompson 17% (21%)
• Mitt Romney 9% (9%)
• Mike Huckabee 8% (4%)
• Ron Paul 3% (1%)
• Tom Tancredo 1% (1%)
• Don’t Know 8% (6%)

Second Choice

• Rudy Giuliani 20%
• John McCain 19%
• Fred Thompson 15%
• Mitt Romney 11%
• Mike Huckabee 5%
• Ron Paul 3%
• Tom Tancredo 2%

Survey of 648 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted October 17-23. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll released in September are in parentheses.

General Election Match-Up

• Hillary Clinton 51%
• Rudy Giuliani 43%

Survey of 1,607 registered voters was conducted October 17-23. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points.

The Edwards campaign has chosen Halloween to instill fear in the hearts of their Democratic constituents with this e-mail that is sure to elicit a sentiment of schadenfreude in conservative circles:

This nightmare on Pennsylvania Avenue is not as remote as you might think-but you can keep it from coming true.

With just hours to go before our deadline for federal matching funds at midnight tonight, your contribution today will help John Edwards win the Democratic nomination-and scare off the Republicans in 2008!

Polls show that with candidates other than John Edwards at the top of the Democratic ticket, Democrats will have a tough time defending the blue states and winning the swing states we’ll need to take the White House in 2008. We could even lose our majorities in Congress!

The American people are hungry for change. They don’t want a candidate who defends the broken system in Washington. Any candidate who stands with the lobbyists instead of the American people will lose.

But with John Edwards at the top of the ticket, we can turn red states blue, build stronger Democratic majorities in Congress, and help Democrats take back more governorships and state legislatures across the country.

Because John knows that in this election, we need a bold leader-not someone who’s just a little better than the Republicans. John is the only candidate in the race who has won in a red state. And poll after poll show him out-performing all the other Democrats against all of the top Republican candidates-especially in the swing states and red states we’ll need to win to take back the White House.

So don’t wait-click here to help us meet our goal of raising $500,000 online before the deadline strikes at midnight tonight!

Thank you for taking action-and Happy Halloween!

Sincerely,

–Jonathan Prince
  Deputy Campaign Manager, John Edwards for President
  October 31, 2007

PS – I just gave $100 — will you contribute what you can today to help us meet our goal?

Rasmussen/FOX Maryland Presidential Election

• Hillary Clinton 46%
• Rudy Giuliani 41%

• Hillary Clinton 47%
• John McCain 40%

• Hillary Clinton 49%
• Fred Thompson 37%

• Hillary Clinton 52%
• Mike Huckabee 31%

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 24. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Mitt Romney was not included in this poll. In the 2004 presidential election, Senator Kerry defeated President Bush in Maryland, 56-43%.

From David Brody:

Mitt Romney’s campaign tells The Brody File that Bill Wichterman, who used to do conservative and religious outreach for Fred Thompson’s campaign, has joined Team Romney. This is a nice “get.” He’ll be a part of the Faith and Values steering committee.

Bill Wichterman left the Thompson campaign because Thompson DOES NOT support the federal marriage amendment. At least the version that is on the table now. Mitt Romney does support it. Wichterman liked that fit. Who can blame him?

This is a guy who has been big on the federal marriage amendment for years. When Bill Frist was trying to push the amendment through the Senate, it was Wichterman who was leading the charge by getting social conservative groups organized and mobilized. Expect him to be a big boost for the Romney campaign when it comes to the marriage issue. His depth of knowledge here is masterful.

I’m one day early with this, but I’ll be in a meeting all day tomorrow. Think of it as a Halloween present.

The investors see a two man race with the collapse of Fred Thompson (movement is from Oct 1 until now):

We knew this would be a primary campaign of contrasts. Each candidate has their own strategy for winning the nomination, which makes it exciting to watch, and we knew each candidate had their own idea of a winning platform as well. For Governor Romney, that platform has been articulated as his now infamous three-legged stool. For Mayor Giuliani, pundits have long suspected he was replacing the social conservative leg with the “electability” leg.

Well, according to AP reports out of North Dakota (where the state Republican Party recently held a dinner and straw poll – more on that later), it looks like the Giuliani campaign is throwing out the stool all together and just going with the electability argument now.

Here’s what Mitt’s son Tagg said at the ND dinner:

“Personally, I think the best way to beat Hillary Clinton is not to water down our values, or to try to act more like Hillary Clinton, or try to blur the distinction between Republicans and Democrats. I think we need a strong Republican.”

In stark contrast, here’s what Kevin Cramer, spokesman for Giuliani said after Tagg’s speech:

“We are here to choose a candidate who can win next November. It does us no good to stand on our beautiful, wonderful principles, and lose to Hillary Clinton.”

Courtesy of the Giuliani campaign themselves, you now have a very clear choice between two political philosophies that couldn’t be more diametrically opposed. (I would suggest this blog I wrote over at RedState as an in-depth look at this topic, long before Rudy Giuliani came into the picture.)

And about that straw poll… North Dakota has been thought to be going solidly to Giuliani up until now – after all, Rudy’s one of the only candidates (if not the only one) who has campaigned in the state and gotten endorsements from the state, and it is the place he hired a campaign director before even having one in South Carolina. But the results of the straw poll showed different results:

• Romney – 27%
• Giuliani – 22%
• Thompson – 21%
• McCain – 14%
• Huckabee – 4%
• Paul – 4%

This result prompted Jonathan Martin to remark, “I thought [ND] was Rudy country?”.

Great read by Tony Blankley…

One prominent conservative commentator last week, whose writing and judgment I usually admire, warned us that Huckabee was yet another in a long line of “Southern Poor-boy Populist Demagogue(s).

“Think Huey Long or George Wallace, James K. Vardaman or ‘Pitchfork’ Ben Tillman, to name the most salient examples of this genus. … Even so canny a politician as Franklin Roosevelt feared Huey Long, for Long’s motivational skills among a huge segment of the Roosevelt Coalition.”

Forgive me, but while I never met Huey Long, I have met, sat down, broken bread and talked with Mike Huckabee. He is no more like Huey Long than our pet kitten “Tiger” is like his jungle beast namesake. Huey Long’s use of his state police to bully Louisiana politicians and businesses (as well as his vicious demagogic rhetoric) earned him the dubious place he has in our history. As far as I can tell, Huckabee’s worst sins are refusing to sign Grover Norquist’s no-tax pledge and expressing in word and policy some limited sympathy for the working poor of Arkansas.

While I support Norquist’s pledge and hold a hard-line position on illegals, it is absurd to consign Huckabee to some ideologically dangerous, nondemocratic, political zombie graveyard. Free-market, low-tax conservatives may point with alarm at Huckabee’s policies if they wish. But what is it in the conservative drinking water recently that gives rise to such bilious language and such excluding ways of thinking?

It would behoove those of us who have been conservative Washington voices for some decades now to exercise a little modesty and humility when it comes to defining what will constitute the new, winning, principled conservatism for the next generation. National conservatism has won more elections than it has lost in the past quarter-century. But in the absence of a completely dysfunctional Democratic Party, we are not likely to continue to do so in the future with exactly the same talking points and programs we have held in the past.

This party needs to change directions.  Not wholesale changes, but subtle changes are needed.  Conservatives, rather Republicans masqerading as Conservatives, had 6 years of control.  That happens about every 30 years for one party or the other. Very, very rare thing when it does.  And we blew it. 

Lest you think the mad scramble to move to February 5 has ended, I give you Rhode Island and their 20 delegates this morning.

The state lawmakers voted yesterday to move their primary to February 5, joining at least 20 other states on that day.

The only polling done for Rhode Island was in April of 2006, long before Giuliani entered the race or anyone was really paying attention. At that time, McCain was leading Romney 50-14. Governor Carcieri has endorsed Romney.

Here’s Scotty:

Rasmussen Reports Daily National Republican Primary Tracking Poll

• Giuliani – 24%
• Thompson – 16%
• Romney – 14%
• Huckabee – 12%
• McCain – 11%

Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Quinnipiac GOP National Primary

• Rudy Giuliani 27% (28%)
• Fred Thompson 17% (12%)
• Mitt Romney 14% (15%)
• John McCain 13% (11%)
• Mike Huckabee 6% (2%)
• Ron Paul 2% (2%)
• Duncan Hunter 1% (1%)
• Tom Tancredo 1% (1%)
• Don’t Know 15% (16%)

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• John McCain 72% / 10% (+62%)
• Rudy Giuliani 71% / 12% (+59%)
• Fred Thompson 52% / 7% (+45%)
• Mitt Romney 47% / 11% (+36%)
• Mike Huckabee 25% / 8% (+17%)

Survey of 678 registered Republicans was conducted October 23-29. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Results from the poll released August 15 are in parentheses.

General Election Match-Ups

• Rudy Giuliani 45% (43%)
• Hillary Clinton 43% (46%)

• Hillary Clinton 46% (49%)
• Fred Thompson 41% (38%)

• Hillary Clinton 44% (47%)
• John McCain 44% (41%)

• Hillary Clinton 48%
• Mitt Romney 38%

Survey of 1,636 American voters was conducted October 23-29. The margin of error is +/- 2.4 percentage points. Results from the poll released August 15 are in parentheses.

I was reading Yepsen’s article on how Huckabee could very well win Iowa. I thought for certain a writer such as Yepsen would offer some concrete evidence to explain the assertion that Huckabee could some how unseat Mitt for the top spot in Iowa. Instead we got a litany of folksy stylistic points: Huck’s guitar playing abilities, humorous sense of speaking prose and the fact he received a standing ovation at the recent Reagen day dinner. It almost seemed a dumbing down of the Iowa electorate by Yepsen.

Huckabee’s rise has been heralded by some as the dark horse coming to town. After the let down you and I call Fred, some are ready for another Dark horse. The MSM is claiming Huckabee status as true contender because “Hey, if we can split the SoCon vote all the better.” Rudy lovers seem to be playing the same game because “Hey, if we can split the SoCon vote all the better.” Makes one feel like a bit of a tool at the end of the day.

Anyway, with this in mind I decided to dig a little a deeper in the numbers and find out just how fast Huckabee’s numbers are really growing. The answer? A little but not really that much.

First lets look at the National Numbers. Huckabee is gaining ground, around 1.5-2% per month. This chart (as are all others) is based upon the RCP numbers.

(V.V. stands for Values Voters Conference. I added this into the chart since many would argue that is were the Huckabee bounce would stem from.)

Let’s look at that chart with Giuliani added:

What I find interesting here is that Giuliani’s numbers month to month, directly mirror Romney’s, yet no grief for Giuliani from the Rudy lovers and MSM. Granted Huckabee can move over Romney quicker in National numbers.

Now lets turn our eyes to the state of Iowa, where many claim Romney needs to win- which I believe he will quite handily.

What is interesting is the fact that when averaged, Romney actually enjoys the larger bounce after the Values Voters summit. Huckabee’s rate of growth has actually slowed since then:

Huckabee’s loss of momentum could easily be attributed to weakness on immigration and economic factors, despite strong SoCon credentials. Some say no, but these two items rate high for to Iowa voters. Lets look at the recent University Iowa Poll. In order of importance for likely Republican Caucus goers, the most important issues to Iowa voters are:

1. Terrorism: 21.4%
2. Economy 15.8%
3. Iraq War 15.5%
4. Immigration 13.5%
5. Health Care 9.5%
6. Abortion 7.2%
7. Education 4.0%
8. Energy Policy 2.9%
9. Gay Marriage 2.9%
10. Agriculture Policy 1.4%
11. Enviroment/Global Warming 1.1%

The number 2 and 4 important items are Huckabee’s two greatest weaknesses. Abortion, Huck’s strength is number 6. Romney’s strengths are 2,4,5 and 8. Gay marriage will be equal, since Huck has always been against it, and Romney has fought it very adamantly- and always stood against it. When you add to Hucks weaknesses on key Iowa issues a lack of serious funding and formal ground organization I fail to see how Huck can capitalize on his strengths in a manner that will cause a huge upswing for him in Iowa.

Going back to the “Changes in Averages Iowa” chart we can see that Huck’s rise in the all important early state is dynamically soft. If we average the trends I note in the chart for both Huckabee and Romney, assume the trends will remain static and then project those till January this is how the race will shape:

Now this isn’t my prediction, this is a projection based upon current post V.V. trends continuing between Huckabee and Romney in Iowa. This projection would make for a strong a second for Huckabee, but not much more. A strong second place would leave Huckabee out of money and praying for a miracle in South Carolina. anything less and he is done. Huck could end up really making a huge upswing, sometime in between now and January. But with the holidays diverting peoples attention and money, it’s tough to see how it will be done. If he hasn’t made the leap by Thanksgiving he has no chance at number one in Iowa, and will be relegated to the club of “so close but so far” with a chair next to Brownback.

So in summation, is Huckabee a real threat to Romney’s goals? A small one. On a scale of 1-10, 1 being Duncan Hunter and 10 being Rudy Giuliani, he’s probably a four with Thompson a three and Ron Paul a two.

Erick Erickson has been touting the mantra: “Down with punditry.  Up with activism.”  We whole-heartily agree.  Over at MyManMitt we’ve put up a quick splash page for Halloween to raise some money for the campaign.  This is something we’ve done periodically throughout the  year.

In short, we drive traffic to the site with quality information and them move our audience from readers to pundits to activists.  Its worked pretty well to date.  We’ve raised almost $80,000.

I’m hoping the model and the key learnings we’ve had from this process will be helpful to all of us once the nominee is known (Mitt or Rudy).

I haven’t broached this subject with Kavon yet… but what do you think?   What role should Race42008.com play in the general election?  Just news and punditry?  What kind of activism should we promote here if any?

Rudy Giuliani

• Excerpt From Mayor Giuliani’s Appearance On The Glenn Beck Show
• Giuliani Rips Dems on Debate
• NY Mayors See Route to White House
• Economaniac
  The crazy Rudy you don’t know.
  by Jonathan Chait, The New Republic
• Giuliani Insists Only He Has Border Fix
  Former NYC City Mayor Wants More Fences, Agents
• Giuliani leads Republican field but faces tough path
• Right fears Giuliani with good reason
  By W. James Antle III
• Right can win with President Giuliani
  By Gary Bauer and Daniel Allott
• Giuliani Defends Iraq War
• Giuliani on Driver’s Licenses For Illegals: ‘This Is Not a Tough Issue.’
• Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani clash over AG nominee
• Giuliani: Huckabee ‘makes me laugh’
• Rudy hearts Huckabee
• Giuliani Hits Back at Biden
• Giuliani: Illegals are a federal problem
• Giuliani: Clinton, Edwards will change their minds again on Iraq
• Giuliani on the Law of the Sea Treaty
• Can Giuliani Help New Jersey Republicans This Year?
• Anti-abortion group defends Brownback-Giuliani talks
• Giuliani Talks About His Prostate Cancer
• New Giuliani ad raises bout with cancer
• Rudy Giuliani’s Cancer Ad
  Uses Own Battle to Hype Health-Care Plan
• Fact-Checking Rudy’s Cancer Numbers
• Giuliani ad targets Hillary health care
• Rudy’s Commitment to the American People: “I Will Give Americans More Control Over, and Access To, Health Care With Affordable and Portable Free-Market Solutions.”
• Giuliani Emphasizes His Commitment to Quality Health Care in New Hampshire
• Excerpt From Mayor Giuliani’s Interview With WYOO’s Burnie Thompson
• Giuliani Still Working at Firm He Promised to Leave
• Meet Giuliani’s New Brain on Foreign Policy
• Giuliani says Patriot Act “seems to be operating pretty darn well”
• Giuliani Wins Endorsement of Ex-Congresswoman Johnson
• Joe Allbaugh to Serve as Senior Advisor to Rudy Giuliani
• A Bushie Endorses Giuliani
• Presidential candidate Giuliani visits Hartford
• Giuliani Makes Stop in Connecticut (Video)
• Authority Figure
  The childhood roots of Giuliani’s strange views of liberty.
  by John Judis
• Giuliani: Yanks will have to pursue Lowell
• Illinois County Leaders Back Giuliani for President
• Giuliani, New Hampshire, and the Real Campaign

Fred Thompson

• Thompson to Tussle with Russert on Meet the Press This Sunday
• Fred Thompson visits Mt. Pleasant
  Red State, Blue Plate: How about a platter o’ platitudes?
• Conservative California lawmakers back Fred Thompson
• Thompson Brushes Off Concerns He’s Losing Steam In Sacto Visit
  Experts Say ‘Tsunami Tuesday’ To Be Big Test
• Presidential Candidate Fred Thompson Visits Sacramento
  Thompson Chimes In On Iraq War, Schwarzenegger
• Thompson’s Money Chief Moves On
• Fred Thompson’s Southern Strategy
  Bypassing Iowa and New Hampshire On the Road to the White House
• Thompson Quizzed on Civil Unions
• Fred Thompson: The Playboy (not really) interview
• Thompson, in rare trip to New Hampshire, promises more visits
• Thompson Tries to Dispel Doubts
• Thompson’s Pollster: Immigration Is Big In Iowa
• Fred Thompson on the U.N.
• Uh, Fred?

John McCain

• McCain Ad Touts Anti-Spending Record
• McCain criticizes ‘compressed’ presidential primary process
• McCain on Middle East, China, Russia
• The McCain Women Speak Out
  ‘I Had to Do Everything I Could to Help Get Him Elected,’ Says Cindy McCain
• McCain caters to GOP voters
• McCain Plans ‘Comeback Kid’ Surge
• McCain links Iraq victory to Middle East peace
• McCain Sounds Skeptical Note on Peace Process
• The Republican candidate forum
• McCain: Readers Speak
• More McCain Reax

Mitt Romney

• Romney Announces National Co-Chairs
  Gov. Blunt, Sen. DeMint And Sen. Gregg To Serve As Co-Chairs
• Mitt Romney: I won’t let US go the way of UK
• Tagg Romney to Brody File: This is a ‘Two-Person Race’
• Obama Takes a Whack At Romney
• Romney Says He’ll Lobby for Olympics
• Sean Hannity Hits the Campaign Trail in New Hampshire with Mitt & Ann Romney
• Romney Seeks To Close The Deal In New Hampshire
• Romney: U.S. at critical juncture; experience key
• Romney Shouldn’t Equate Mormons, Christians, Evangelicals Say
• Richard Land, Romney and monotheism
• Romney Falling Victim to Voters’ Religious Discrimination
  By Martin Frost
• Romney: ‘I’m a Reagan Republican’
• Mitt uses loaded word to dis Hillary
• Presidential candidate Mitt Romney hosts “Ask Mitt Anything”
• Romney lobs more verbal grenades at Clinton
• MittWatch: When in Doubt, Say Clinton Haunts the House
• New Hampshire senator endorses Romney for president
• Taking their place on the ballot
  Gregg backs Romney as candidate files for primary
• Romney rolling in Iowa, New Hampshire on money well spent
• Romney earning his cash
• Romney on Interns in the Oval Office, Nudge, Nudge
• Romney names new terrorist leader
• Romney’s ’slip’ not plausible
• Objectives for the Romney Campaign

Mike Huckabee

• Huckabee Distances Self From Parole Case
  As Arkansas Governor, GOP Hopeful Favored Release Of Man Who Went On To Kill
• Huckabee Faces Rapist Parole Questions
  Former Arkansas Gov. Says He Followed Democrats’ Advice
• Huckabee Deems Himself ‘In Play’
• Huckabee doubts Rudy will get nod
• Republicans start to swing behind Mike Huckabee’s Capitol offensive
• Huckabee Talks About Keeping Iowa Momentum Going
• Huckabee not conservative enough for some
  By Roger Simon
• Complexity on the Right
• Yepsen: Positive, Reagan-like spirit spurs Huckabee’s rise
• For Thompson and Romney, Huckabee’s Routine Is a Killer
  by Jennifer Rubin
• William Jennings Huckabee
• Why is Huckabee Left Standing?
• Rising in Polls, Huckabee Could Be GOP’s Dark Horse of 2008
• Huckabee expands S.C. leadership team
• Huckabee brings daughter in for final campaign stretch
• Huckabee’s TV sweep week: No ‘dead carcass’
• The Rap Against Huckabee
  What’s true, and what’s not.
  By Byron York

General Race 4 2008 News

• Evans-Novak Political Report
• Intrade Political Prediction Markets Newsletter
• Small-tent conservatives
  by Tony Blankley
• ‘Criminal’ Botnet Stumps for Ron Paul, Researchers Allege
• Primary Rush Forces New Tack For Campaigns
• What If the Iowa Polls Don’t Change?
  By Dick Morris
• GOP plots contempt strategy
• Going for broke in New Hampshire
• N.H., Iowa Keep the Candidates’ Attention
  Wallets Open Wide Despite Changes in Primary Calendar
• McCain and Romney camps go at it, too
• Campus Voices on the Democratic Debate
• The Real Iraqi Miracle
  Opting for tolerance.
  by Dean Barnett
• George W. Bush’s greatest triumph?
• Economy Logs Brisk 3.9 Percent Growth
  Economy Grows at Brisk 3.9 Percent Pace in Summer, Best Performance in 1 1/2 Years
• Doing the Math
  The races look like Hillary’s and Rudy’s to lose. But numbers can deceive.
• A Drive-By Swift-Boating
• What the U.S. president election might mean for stocks, sectors, dividends and M&A
• Romney criticizes Clinton, Giuliani in Illinois
  Giuliani spokesman says former New York mayor supports a constitutional amendment establishing a line-item veto.
• U.S. says monthly Iraq death toll heading lower
  37 troop deaths so far in October, lowest level in nearly 2 years
• Thompson, Obama get most positive coverage: study
• Hawkeye poll: Huckabee could be Romney alternative, Obama odds hinge on youth vote
• Stephen Colbert Tops Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich in Presidential Poll
• Swiss and Dutch health care systems attract U.S. attention
  Mitt Romney’s health care revisions when he was governor of Massachusetts were in part modeled on provisions in Switzerland, although Romney has not endorsed this approach as a candidate seeking the Republican presidential nomination.
• Illness Changes People
  By Neil Cavuto
• GOP ‘Scheduling Conflicts’ Postpone Another Black Voter Forum
• GOP candidates blow off another minority forum
• Florida property tax cut emerges from fight
  Now at least 60 percent of voters must approve the tax package.
• Mega-donors prepare for ‘08 battle
• Presidential candidates, parties split on how to prevent a nuclear Iran
• Clinton and Obama clash on going to war with Iran
  Despite the rhetoric, their policies are quite similar.
• Zogby Poll: 52% Support U.S. Military Strike Against Iran
• Bomb Iran, majority of Americans says in new poll
  Just 29 percent of Americans think the US should not attack Iran
• PBS Video: Norman Podhoretz and Fareed Zakaria Weigh U.S. Military Action Against Iran
• Conservatism’s buzz-kill
  In theory, Americans like limited government; in practice, they’re loath to roll back programs that benefit them.
  by Jonah Goldberg
• The Mukasey test
• Battles of the ’60s continue
• Waiting on Iowa
  Can polls be predictive? Sure. Just not yet.
  By Jim Geraghty
• GOP surprise in poll
• ‘I Caution Some in Our Party’
  Harold Ford Jr. on the struggle for the Democrats’ soul
• Romney, Thompson argue over immigration
• Rudy Loves Hillary-Haters
• Giuliani on a Roll?
• Is God running for president?
• GOP ready for its close-up
• Ron Paul’s Iowa dreams becoming more real
  Presidential hopeful gets chill from GOP establishment, but wins admirers
• Pride and Joy in India Over La.’s Bobby Jindal
  Governor-Elect Is Latest Scion Idolized for Making It in U.S.
• Messy, But Not a Mess
  The always-evolving nomination process provides ample time and challenges to compel candidates to reveal their characters and skills.
  by George Will
• Nader Suing DNC Over ‘04, Hasn’t Ruled Out ‘08
• Political ‘Solutions’
  By Thomas Sowell
• By Brent Bozell III
• Green Conservatism: A New Way of Thinking About the Environment
  by Newt Gingrich
• The Arkansas Poll
• The top US conservatives and liberals
• Here We Go Again: An Anti-Incumbent Wave Next Year?
  By Stuart Rothenberg
• The Happiness Gap
  By David Brooks
• Michigan stung by study’s dropout list
  78 high schools called ‘dropout factories’ by college report; state officials reject claims.
• Bush: Congress is not getting its work done
• Women voters boost Democratic coffers
• No difference between Republicans and Democrats? CAIR disagrees.
• Wall Street, Hill clash
• Some Very Early Thoughts on a Very Contentious Debate
• Electing a president: A question of experience
• Democrats Must Turn Right to Win
  Both John Edwards and Barack Obama want to move the Democrats to the left. But that’s a sure way to lose the election. Many voters may live their lives on the left, but their hopes and dreams are well to the right.
• Dem Debate: The Good, the Bad, and the Hillary Moments
  By Mary Katharine Ham
• Yepsen: Edwards shines in debate while Clinton falters
• Grading the October 30 Democratic Debate
  by Mark Halperin

Hillary Clinton

• Hillary Gets Worst Reviews Yet
  By Amanda Carpenter
• Foes Couldn’t KO Hillary — So She Socked Herself
• Pundits on Clinton’s Debate Defeat
• Video: Hillary Clinton flip flops around Eliot Spitzer’s licenses-for-illegals plan
• Shooting the Moderator?
• Clinton Gets No Love in Democrats Debate
• Obama, Edwards attack; Clinton bombs debate
  By Roger Simon
• In 7th Round, a Pitched Debate: Clinton Hears It From Her Rivals
• Clinton wears GOP hate as badge of honor
• Clinton, Targeted by Rivals In Debate, Goes After Bush
• Hillary launches preemptive debate strike
• Rivals Accuse Clinton of Flip-Flopping
  Obama and Edwards Offer Sharp Critique of Clinton
• GOP ‘obsession’ keys debate
  Rival Democrats say Republicans savor Clinton as nominee
• Bill Clinton Rallies S.C. Crowd
  Former President Says Hillary Has Best Climate Change Plan
• Gerald Ford labelled ’sex addict’ Clinton ’sick’
• What Ford’s Thoughts on One Clinton’s Past Say About Another Clinton’s Future
• 77% See Hillary as Likely Nominee
• Arkansas’s Favorite daughter
• Looking Closer at Hillary’s Head-to-Head Numbers
• More On Hillary
• Clinton could face fire at tonight’s debate
• The Democrats Debate in Philly: Everybody Vs. Hillary on Iran
• Clinton’s Foes Go on the Attack
  Front-Runner Is Target in Season’s Liveliest Democratic Debate
• Clinton as punching bag – a sign of things to come
• WH ‘08: Clinton Gets Hazing In Philly Debate

It’s on MSNBC right now. Fire away.

From the “In Case You Missed it” files, Gov. Huckabee defended his Fi-Con bona fides in a letter to the editor of the the Wall Street Journal:

John Fund’s view of my 10 1/2-year record as governor of Arkansas and my vision for America’s future (“Another Man from Hope: Who is Mike Huckabee?”) calls for me to set the record straight.

It’s important to note that every living Republican in Arkansas who has been elected to either a statewide or a federal office has endorsed my candidacy. I’m grateful for their support and proud that in 1998, I received the largest percentage of votes ever received by a Republican gubernatorial nominee in Arkansas, and that Arkansans re-elected me to another four-year term in November 2002.

I am even prouder that, throughout my tenure as governor and lieutenant governor of Arkansas, I campaigned tirelessly for countless Republican candidates for the state house and federal office–and even helped get some elected.

As governor, I pushed through the Arkansas Legislature the first major, broad-based tax cuts in state history–a $90 million tax relief package for Arkansas families; led efforts to establish a Property Taxpayers’ Bill of Rights; and created a welfare reform program that reduced the welfare rolls in the state by almost 50%. We also doubled the standard deduction to $2,000 for single taxpayers and $4,000 for those who are married. In total, I led the fight to cut taxes and fees over 90 times during my 10 1/2 years as governor, saving the people of Arkansas almost $380 million. When I left office, Arkansas had over $800 million in state surplus.

Read the whole thing here.

Rudy Giuliani appeared on Neil Cavuto’s show this afternoon and the subject shifted to fellow candidate Mike Huckabee:

Giuliani: Huckabee is a wonderful man.

Cavuto: A wonderful running mate?

Giuliani: I think, well, I’ll tell you about…I don’t know about running mate, but I sure like having him at the debates because he makes me laugh.

Cavuto: (Laughs)

Giuliani: He gets off really funny lines. And, he’s got a nice approach to life. You know, he’s a man that is a…he’s got a happy approach. And, he’s got an optimistic approach to life.

Cavuto: OK

Giuliani: And then, I…you know, I have great respect for him.

The Washington Post has a cool new feature up highlighting the endorsements of the state congressmen and women from each of the first five primary states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina. They personally sought responses from all 950+ of them to see who they were endorsing (if anyone) and compiled them all into handy lists for us, their thankful readers. Here are the Republican results:

Iowa (30 total; 67 possible)

• Romney – 16
• McCain – 8
• Huckabee – 3
• Giuliani – 3

New Hampshire (45 total; 171 possible)

• McCain – 18
• Romney – 14
• Giuliani – 6
• Huckabee – 4
• Paul – 2
• Tancredo – 1

Michigan (51 total; 73 possible)

• Romney – 41
• McCain – 10

Nevada (7 total; 26 possible)

• Romney – 5
• Giuliani – 2

South Carolina (73 total; 99 possible)

• McCain – 48
• Thompson – 12
• Romney – 9
• Huckabee – 4

TOTAL Early State Endorsements:

• Romney – 85
• McCain – 74
• Thompson – 12
• Giuliani – 11
• Huckabee – 11
• Paul – 2
• Tancredo – 1

If you haven’t seen these, and you have 15 minutes, take the time to watch them now. Very telling. Hillary is not good.

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Rudy Giuliani 24%
• Fred Thompson 17%
• Mitt Romney 14%
• John McCain 12%
• Mike Huckabee 12%

Survey includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Rasmussen Virginia Presidential Election

• Rudy Giuliani 46%
• Hillary Clinton 43%

• Fred Thompson 46%
• Hillary Clinton 45%

• John McCain 46%
• Hillary Clinton 45%

• Hillary Clinton 48%
• Mike Huckabee 39%

Favorable rating

• John McCain 57%
• Rudy Giuliani 54%
• Fred Thompson 51%
• Hillary Clinton 47% (51% Unfavorable)
• Mike Huckabee 40%

Survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted October 24. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Mitt Romney, who, prior to today, had fallen to fifth place in Rasmussen’s Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, was not included in this survey.

Race 4 2008 is pleased to present the following op-ed from the Rev. Jerry Zandstra, PhD. Rev. Zandstra is an ordained minister in the Christian Reformed Church and head of the Pro-Life Federation of Michigan.
______________________________________________________________________________________

Since the fall of 2006, I have served on Sen. Sam Brownback’s national steering committee for his presidential campaign. Sam is a good man and I was saddened by the news of his departure from the race. His consistent voice honoring life and highlighting the need to restore the family will be missed from the presidential dialogue. He reflects what’s important to me and many conservatives.

I have thought about each of the Republican candidates and examined their strengths and weaknesses. Each brings something unique and on many points, we agree. And each has policy positions which do not completely align with my own. After careful consideration and following the developments of each of the candidates, I have decided to wholeheartedly endorse Sen. John McCain.

Pragmatically, two recent polls (Fox News and News/Opinion Dynamic Poll) show that Sen. McCain is best positioned to defeat Sen. Hillary Clinton in the general election. Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney are 12 points behind Hillary.

But true Republicans are deeper than mere pragmatism. My reasons of principle fall into two categories. The first is that of ongoing issues and principles and consist of what are usually thought of as core positions in Republican platform. I have examined several years worth of comments and articles on Sen. McCain’s position on abortion. He is a consistent opponent of abortion. While some other Republican candidates, like Mayor Giuliani, are pro-choice or, like Gov. Romney, have only recently become opponents of abortion, Sen. McCain’s record is clear, consistent, and lengthy.

Sen. McCain also defends marriage. He serves on a committee in Arizona which focuses on defining marriage as it has always been defined: occurring between one man and one woman.

The second category of reasons for supporting Sen. McCain is more focused on the unique situation in which our nation currently finds itself. Wise organizations of every size and shape know that it is important to pay careful attention to the challenges they face when searching for new leadership. People with particular skills and experience are brought into specific situations because they are best positioned to lead through a crisis. There really is a phenomenon of “for such a time as this.”

I believe that Sen. McCain is the leader for such a time as this. The next political leader of the United States must have vast global experience. He or she will be a war president and a deep and personal understanding of the military will be vital to the interests of the United States. The next president must have first-hand knowledge of friends and foes alike around the globe. Knowing the name of the Canadian prime minister or having vacationed in Europe is not enough. Holding a position as a business executive is not enough. On-the-job training is simply too precarious in a complex and dangerous world.

John McCain’s military service to our nation is beyond reproach. His understanding of the complexities of the global political and military challenges is unparalleled in either party. He was right when he called for additional troops at the beginning of the Iraq war and he is right in his unswerving support for winning the Iraq war. Neither position was popular, but Sen. McCain has demonstrated courage, experience, and prudence by calling for what is both right and necessary. His statement that he would rather win the war than the presidency speaks volumes about his heart and soul.

Equally important, the economy of the United States faces enormous challenges from globalization. The easy answer is isolationism – build the walls around the United States high and thick. The Democrats and, unfortunately, some Republicans are adopting the failed strategy of isolationism, hoping to gain political points. But economical isolation has never worked and it will not work now.

We can attempt to isolate ourselves from the world or we can engage and compete in the world. As Sen. McCain clearly demonstrated at the presidential debate in Michigan, he stands with those who see opportunity where others see a reason to hide. Saying such things in Dearborn, Michigan takes guts and, again, Sen. McCain demonstrated that his love for our nation comes before his concern about his political career.

For courage, for wisdom, for experience, there really is only one choice: Sen. John McCain.

Mitt gets the trifecta, according to ARG:

American Research Group South Carolina GOP Primary

• Romney – 29% (26)
• Giuliani – 23% (23)
• McCain – 13% (15)
• Thompson – 10% (10)
• Huckabee – 5% (1)
• Paul – 4% (2)
• Hunter – 2% (1)
• All others – 1% or less

Survey was conducted Oct 26-29 of 600 likely Republican primary voters and has a 4% MoE. Numbers in parentheses are from the Sept poll.

Among Republicans, Romney leads Giuliani 30-24; among independents, Romney leads McCain 24-23.

Poll 2 of 3 from ARG this morning:

American Research Group New Hampshire Republican Primary

• Romney – 30% (24)
• Giuliani – 23% (20)
• McCain – 17% (20)
• Huckabee – 7% (3)
• Thompson – 5% (8)
• All Others – 1% or less

Survey was conducted Oct 26-29 of 600 likely Republican primary voters and has a 4% MoE. Numbers in parentheses are from the Sept poll.

Among Republicans, Romney leads Giuliani 32-23; among independents, Romney leads McCain 26-25 with Giuliani at 23.

(h/t Kevin W)

I don’t believe ARG polls anymore, but for those of you who do, here’s their latest from Iowa (with NH and SC to follow):

American Research Group Republican Iowa Caucus

• Romney – 27% (22)
• Huckabee – 19% (4)
• Giuliani – 16% (21)
• McCain – 14% (11)
• Thompson – 8% (16)
• Tancredo – 2% (1)
• Paul – 1% (2)
• All others – less than 1%

Survey was conducted Oct 26-29 of 600 likely Republican caucus goers, and has a 4% MoE. Numbers in parentheses are from their Sept poll.

Among Republicans, Romney leads Huckabee 26-19; among independents Romney leads Giuliani 31-20 with Huckabee at 17.

An interesting aside from Scott Rasmussen yesterday points out that national general election polls tell us a lot more about Hillary Clinton than any of the Republican candidates – because she polls at an average of 48% against everybody.

Looking at other recent match-ups confirms the sense that what we’re seeing is primarily a reflection of attitudes about the Democratic frontrunner. In the latest Rasmussen Reports polling, Clinton gets 47% against Fred Thompson, 47% against Mitt Romney, 48% against Mike Huckabee, 44% against Rudy Giuliani, and 44% against John McCain. If you average the last three polls for Senator Clinton against each of these top five Republican hopefuls, Clinton’s support averages out at 48%. Using this three-poll average, Clinton attracts between 46% and 49% support no matter which Republican candidate is named in the survey (emphasis mine).

That’s against Romney, Giuliani, McCain, Thompson, Huckabee, and yes, even against Ron Paul (whom Clinton leads 48-38).

This is one of the few pieces of good news Republicans have heading into the 2008 general election. Hillary cannot muster more than 48% against any GOP candidate, even our second tier guys. For an election that is supposedly favoring the Democrats in a big way (Intrade currently has it at 63/35 that a Democrat wins the White House next year), Hillary topping out at two points below 50% is remarkable and welcome news – and shows that this thing is winnable after all.

Mitt savages Hillary on Hannity & Colmes:

Awesome!

Dave Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union, tells Newsmax that he considers Romney the best positioned to win:

“Romney’s doing it the right way, in my view,” Keene says over lunch at the Palm. “My view’s colored by history, and these other guys seem to be betting that history doesn’t matter, and I’m not sure that’s true. If you win the first contest, and they’re close enough to the second contest, you get an enormous boost. And the idea that the onrush of big primaries makes those early contests unimportant may be 180 degrees wrong.”

The ACU has been around for awhile here in DC. They run CPAC and put out one of the most comprehensive congressional ratings directories.

Keene has also been a major figure at the NRA and looks to take the reins there in the next few years.

He notes this about the polls:

“If you assume for a moment that the propaganda from the Romney camp is accurate and the polls are right, he is in fact in a position that he could conceivably win Iowa, New Hampshire and then South Carolina. In that case, all these national polls showing him behind are completely irrelevant.”

Here’s Keene on the Romney ground game:

“But when you start talking to people out there, you find that while the other candidates are sort of running a national media campaigns, Romney’s on the ground and organizing. That gives him a tremendous opportunity, particularly against Rudy.”

…

“It’s hard to see Rudy pulling it off, unless he organized as well as Romney, and I don’t see him doing that,” Keene says. As a result, “Romney’s in the best position to get ahead when the contest actually starts. Giuliani has got his poll lead, but I don’t know what else he has.”

Keene had this to say about Thompson:

“Thompson could get back in it if he gets his act together,” Keene says. On the other hand, the idea of a resurgence for John McCain is totally unlikely, he says. “McCain is just coming up to a level of support he had in the past,” Keene says. “He can’t get beyond that.”

Lastly, Keene had some interesting comments about the race against Hillary:

“Given the current state of attitudes about President Bush and the Republicans, Hillary ought to be 15 to 20 points ahead,” Keene says. “The fact that she’s just four or five points ahead and is hovering mostly below 50 percentage points in the polls means she’s in deep trouble. She can win, but it’s not going to be easy for her. And that means that the Republican nomination is worth a lot more than what the common wisdom would suggest.”