Senator Rand Paul, far right, was on the main stage at last month's Republican debate in Milwaukee.Credit Michael Appleton for The New York Times
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky will retain his place on the main stage when the Republican presidential candidates debate on Tuesday, CNN said on Sunday, sparing Mr. Paul from what could have been a setback for his campaign.
On Saturday, aides to Mr. Paul had indicated they would fight any decision by CNN to drop the senator to the so-called undercard debate when the candidates gather on Tuesday in Las Vegas. Mr. Paul was at risk of falling out of the main event because of his low poll numbers.
To qualify for the main stage, candidates needed to reach an average of at least 3.5 percent nationally or 4 percent in either Iowa or New Hampshire between Oct. 29 and Dec. 13, according to CNN’s criteria. The poll averages would not be rounded, CNN said.
On Sunday, CNN reported on its website that Mr. Paul “was saved at the 11th hour by showing viability in Iowa” in a poll by Fox News released on Sunday, which showed Mr. Paul at 5 percent.
Asked about Mr. Paul’s inclusion, Lauren Pratapas, a CNN spokeswoman, said: “In the light of new polling released this morning and in the spirit of being as inclusive as possible, CNN has decided to include Sen. Rand Paul in the prime-time debate.”
CNN said that nine Republicans will participate in the main debate, including Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, who was relegated to the undercard debate when the candidates last faced off, on Fox Business on Nov. 10 in Milwaukee.
At Tuesday’s debate, Donald J. Trump will be at center stage, flanked by Ben Carson and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. In addition to Mr. Paul and Mr. Christie, they will be joined by Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, Carly Fiorina and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio.
The undercard debate will feature Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, former Gov. George E. Pataki of New York and former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.
Senator Rand Paul in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, last week.Credit Scott Morgan/Associated Press
Aides to Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky indicated that they would fight any decision by CNN to move him to the so-called undercard stage for the Republican debate on Tuesday in Las Vegas, but dismissed a report that he was considering dropping out of the race if he were not on the main stage.
A poll of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa that was released on Saturday showed Mr. Paul at 3 percent. Shortly after the poll was released, his campaign issued a statement that said that Mr. Paul had had discussions with CNN and the Republican National Committee arguing that he belongs on the main debate stage.
According to the criteria used by CNN, a candidate must be polling at 3.5 percent nationally or 4 percent in either Iowa or New Hampshire between Oct. 29 and Dec. 15. Candidates who do not meet that but who are polling above 1 percent in any of those three types of surveys can appear at the undercard debate.
Appearing in the undercard debate has not always been damaging. Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey commanded the stage at the debate on Nov. 10 in Milwaukee, and saw an improvement in some polls. But Mr. Paul is not the same type of political performer as Mr. Christie, and losing the exposure that a prime-time debate can offer could be problematic.
His campaign aides noted that the rules were changed to allow Carly Fiorina to appear on the main stage in an August debate. They also noted the size of Mr. Paul’s operation, and that he is in the top five in several polls. His aides said in the statement that Mr. Paul was looking forward to his “fair and rightful place on the main debate stage.”
Mr. Paul’s advisers also disputed a report from The Boston Globe that Mr. Paul had indicated that he would have an announcement on Tuesday about whether to continue his campaign if he does not make the cut for the main debate.
“We will make an announcement, on that, on Tuesday,” Mr. Paul said at a campaign stop, The Globe reported. The article said that his comment was in response to a question that specifically asked whether he would drop out of the race for president if he did not qualify for the main-stage Republican debate.
In an email, Mr. Paul’s top adviser, Doug Stafford, wrote: “We continue to believe Senator Paul should be on the main stage at the next debate, but regardless, Senator Paul is in the race to stay and to win. He was referring to an announcement Tuesday as it relates to the debate.”
Gov. Chris Christie speaks to a packed barn during a campaign stop on Friday.Credit Jim Cole/Associated Press
Chris Christie, who is enjoying a bump in popularity in New Hampshire, mocked Marco Rubio on Saturday for not visiting the state more often.
With more pointed comments than usual and a dismissive aside — “He’s never here” — Mr. Christie, the New Jersey governor, increased his attacks on Mr. Rubio, the candidate who may be his biggest rival in the race for support from more establishment-oriented Republicans.
Mr. Christie began by criticizing Mr. Rubio, who represents Florida in the Senate, for missing so many votes while he campaigns. “He doesn’t show up because he’s running for president,” he said.
“Come on, Marco,” Mr. Christie continued before hitting Mr. Rubio for not being in New Hampshire enough — a charge that the state’s largest paper, The Union-Leader, leveled at the senator recently in an editorial. (It has endorsed Mr. Christie). “He’s never here. But, you know, in Iowa or in New York at hedge fund places raising money.”
An analysis of one month of candidate schedules by The New York Times showed that Mr. Rubio was appearing at public events less often than some rivals. But the topic is also a familiar one for Mr. Christie, who has been criticized by Democrats in New Jersey for putting his presidential ambitions ahead of the needs of the state he governs. He has spent considerable time out of the state as he campaigns for president. And he is due back in New Hampshire next week.
Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia called Donald J. Trump a "disgrace" on Twitter.Credit Fayez Nureldine/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
It’s a spat between two heirs to fortunes, one that traverses billions of dollars, millions of Twitter followers, an ocean or two, and an increasingly caustic presidential campaign.
Indeed, the latest to draw the ire of Donald J. Trump, the bombastic Republican candidate, on Twitter is Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia, who lobbed the first critique on Friday:
.@realDonaldTrump
You are a disgrace not only to the GOP but to all America.
Withdraw from the U.S presidential race as you will never win.
Mr. Trump’s recent call for a “complete shutdown” of Muslim immigration to the United States, after recent attacks in Paris and California that were inspired by the Islamic State, has brought him criticism from many in the Middle East and has cost him financially.
But Mr. Alwaleed’s insult may have stung a little deeper. During Mr. Trump’s period of financial distress in the early 1990s, when a debt of more than $900 million forced Mr. Trump to carve up some of his empire, the prince snapped up two jewels of the Trump brand: the Plaza Hotel in New York and Mr. Trump’s 281-foot-yacht, known as “Trump Princess.”
For Mr. Trump, the criticism from Mr. Alwaleed validated the attitude he has been taking toward Saudi Arabia during his campaign. In August, he said that the country should “pay us” for military protection. He frequently mentions in his stump speech that some of the Sept. 11 hijackers sent their families back to Saudi Arabia before the attacks — a claim that, like a number of other assertions he has made, has been found to be lacking in truth. On Tuesday, he accused the country of sending money to the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, in an interview on MSNBC.
“Some of our so-called allies that we work with and we protect and we protect them militarily, they’re sending massive amounts of money to ISIS and to Al Qaeda and to others, O.K.?” Mr. Trump said in the interview.
When pressed on if Saudi Arabia was one of the countries he was talking about, Mr. Trump replied: “Of course they’re doing it. Everybody knows that.”
He wouldn’t mention another country, however, stating, “There are, but I’m not going to say it because I have a lot of relationships with people, but they are.”
It turns out those relationships might have soured as well. Mr. Trump’s name was stripped from a multibillion-dollar development on the outskirts of Dubai, and the Dubai-based Landmark Group responded by removing all Trump-branded products from the shelves of its Lifestyle retail stores.
President Gerald R. Ford and Ronald Reagan at the closing session of the Republican National Convention in Kansas City, Mo., on Aug. 19, 1976.Credit Hulton Archive/Getty Images
Donald J. Trump’s dominance in the polls, combined with a cluster of second-place candidates looking to topple him, has Republicans thinking their convention next summer could be a nerve-racking get-together reminiscent of 1976.
That was the year Ronald Reagan rattled insiders with his insurgent campaign against President Gerald R. Ford, with party members arriving at the convention in Kansas City, Mo., without a clear nominee. Backroom deals and delegate swapping secured the nomination for Ford but left him bruised going into the general election, which he lost to Jimmy Carter.
Forty years later, the dynamics are somewhat different, but Republican fears are the same. Memos have been circulated about how down-ballot candidates should campaign in the event that Mr. Trump is the nominee, and party elders gathered this week to discuss how a floor fight could play out if the billionaire businessman’s gravity-defying poll numbers propel him through the nominating contests.
“There are an astonishing number of similarities,” said Craig Shirley, who worked on Reagan’s 1980 campaign and wrote “Reagan’s Revolution,” a book about the 1976 bid. “Reagan was a threat to the system, he was an outsider and he criticized the Republican Party.”
Ford had the power of the presidency behind him and, with the help of James Baker, was able to entice uncommitted delegates with dinners and invitations to watch fireworks and other perks. One Long Island delegate even won a sewage contract from the White House in exchange for his support, Mr. Shirley recalled.
Lee Edwards, an historian at the Heritage Foundation, said that Reagan might have pulled the nomination off in 1976 were it not for some missed opportunities and betrayals. Clarke Reed, a leader of the Mississippi delegation, had committed his delegation’s 30 votes to Reagan, but ultimately buckled under pressure from Ford’s campaign, narrowly handing him the convention victory. In the end, Ford defeated Reagan, 1,187 votes to 1,070.
“Republicans like order and stability,” Mr. Edwards said. “They don’t like surprises, they don’t like brokered conventions. But this is a special circumstance, and the possibility of a brokered convention is there for the first time in a long time.”
The party sought to streamline the nominating process this cycle, and delegate commitments to their candidates are tighter than they were in the 1970s. Still, talk of a brokered convention has this year’s crop of outsider candidates on edge.
Mr. Trump, who has promised not to run as an independent, has teased that he would renege on that promise if the party treats him unfairly. On Friday, Ben Carson, the retired neurosurgeon, echoed that sentiment and warned that he, too, would leave the party if the primary process were hijacked by “elites.”
“This process is the one played out by our party,” Mr. Carson said. “If the powerful try to manipulate it, the Republican National Convention in Cleveland next summer may be the last convention.”
The Republican National Committee is trying to tamp down fears of a floor fight after The Washington Post reported that contingency plans were being made to keep the nomination from Mr. Trump. Sean Spicer, the committee’s communications director, told CNN on Friday that a private dinner to discuss the nomination process was merely informational.
“Republican voters will choose the delegates that will go to the convention in Cleveland next July,” Mr. Spicer said. “Those people will decide the nominee. That’s it. Bottom line, plain and simple.”
But political analysts suggest that things could get complicated this time around with such a crowded field. The nominee will need to win more than half of the 2,470 delegates.
With different types of delegates and states allocating them through various formulas, a glut of delegate-rich candidates could spell confusion at the convention. If the first ballot proves inconclusive, candidates would be left scouring for unbound delegates, and the party would keep voting until someone received sufficient support. After decades of conventions that were essentially big parties to rubber-stamp nominees, Republican delegates might need to make some big decisions next summer.
Depending on how the primaries and caucuses play out, party leaders may have to decide between Mr. Trump and a candidate more palatable to the establishment, such as Senator Marco Rubio of Florida. If Jeb Bush or Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey pick up momentum, they could also be suitable alternatives, and the ascendance of Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, an outsider with insider credentials, could further complicate matters.
“Cruz is a rabble-rouser in the party and not someone who I think would care much if he became more reviled by his colleagues,” said Kyle D. Kondik, spokesman for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “If he had the chance to fight at the convention, he might do it.”
Still, with so many variables, some who have seen floor fights firsthand say that it is too soon to make predictions for such a chaotic outcome and that the similarities with 1976 only go so far. Edwin Meese III, who was a policy adviser to Reagan in 1976 and later his attorney general, said that 2016 could not compare until the field was winnowed to two candidates. Ford’s presidential perch offered him more power than Mr. Trump’s opponents or party leaders appear to possess. And, he noted, Mr. Trump is no Reagan.
“On our side, the main thing we had was the ability to persuade people on the basis of philosophical reasons,” Mr. Meese said, suggesting that Mr. Trump faces a different set of challenges with the establishment than Reagan did. “Certainly Trump is not the person that the party leadership favors, just as Ronald Reagan was not favored by party leadership in 1976. I would not want to make the comparison go beyond that.”
Anti-Trump protesters outside the Plaza Hotel in Manhattan on Friday.Credit Karsten Moran for The New York Times
Protesters angry at Donald J. Trump’s call to ban foreign Muslims from entering the United States disrupted his appearance on Friday in midtown Manhattan, and security guards forcibly ejected several of the demonstrators.
Jamila Hammami, the executive director of the Queer Detainee Empowerment Project, said she was one of the protesters who were thrown out. She said that her hair was pulled and that security guards told her they would throw her down the stairs. One video showed a female demonstrator tumbling to the ground after apparently being pushed toward the door by security officers.
Mr. Trump was there as the keynote speaker for the Pennsylvania Republican Party’s annual Commonwealth Club fund-raiser luncheon at the Plaza Hotel. Such disruptions have become increasingly common at Mr. Trump’s events in recent weeks, with several breaking out at a rally Monday in South Carolina.
Attendees at the lunch Friday said there had been maybe four or five protesters. Dick Stewart, a co-chairman of the central caucus for Pennsylvania Republicans, said Mr. Trump seemed unfazed by the disruption.
One protester, Jacob Bridge, said that he had bought a $1,000 ticket to the event with the intent of letting in more protesters once he was inside, but that he was escorted out before he had the chance to do so.
Mr. Bridge, a former Marine and member of Iraq Veterans Against the War, said he was approached by security guards shortly after he sat down. He said he didn’t know how security knew about his intentions, and he said he was told that he’d be refunded the amount of his ticket.
Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton and Martin O'Malley at the Democratic presidential debate at Drake University in Des Moines on Nov. 14.Credit Ruth Fremson/The New York Times
The Democratic National Committee has revoked the sponsorship of WMUR, New Hampshire’s most influential television station, of the party’s presidential debate next week because of a labor dispute involving the station.
Pressure had been mounting on the station’s parent company, Hearst, for some time, as all three Democratic candidates for president pushed for labor negotiations to at least begin before the debate, scheduled for next Saturday, Dec. 19. Otherwise the candidates faced the prospect of having to cross a picket line.
“Regrettably, as a result of WMUR’s unwillingness to move forward on scheduling negotiations between the Hearst Corporation and production department employees represented by I.B.E.W. Local 1228 prior to the debate, we will no longer include WMUR as a co-sponsor of the debate, and their talent will not be participating in any way,” read a joint statement by Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the chairwoman of the national committee, and Ray Buckley, the chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party.
On Thursday, the campaign of Martin O’Malley, which is not as flush with cash as his rivals, called on all candidates to stop advertising on the station and for the station to not run segments on the Democratic campaign until labor negotiations began.
Revoking the sponsorship means WMUR journalists may not participate in questioning the candidates, and no WMUR branding will appear anywhere on the debate stage.
The station’s president, Jeff Bartlett, said in a statement that he was disappointed in the decision, but that “nevertheless, we’ll continue to cover the debate, the candidates and campaigns.”
Senator Ted Cruz and Donald J. Trump during a rally to protest the Iran nuclear deal on Capitol Hill on Sept. 9.Credit Doug Mills/The New York Times
Donald J. Trump said last month that he was prepared to “go to war” with Senator Ted Cruz if the Republican from Texas continued to gain strength. It appears the fight is on.
On Friday, after Mr. Cruz told a private gathering of donors that Mr. Trump’s campaign was destined to collapse, the billionaire developer dared him to challenge him publicly.
.@tedcruz should not make statements behind closed doors to his bosses, he should bring them out into the open – more fun that way!
According to an audio recording from the donor event on Wednesday, Mr. Cruz offered faint praise of Mr. Trump and Ben Carson before saying, “I don’t believe either one of them is going to be our president.” He questioned their judgment and qualifications for the job at a time of growing fears about terrorism.
“People run as who they are. I believe gravity will bring both of those campaigns down,” Mr. Cruz said. “The lion’s share of their supporters come to us.”
Mr. Cruz has been gaining in the polls and in one Iowa survey has overtaken Mr. Trump. On Thursday the Texas senator received an important endorsement from Bob Van Der Plaats, the chief executive of the Family Leader, an influential evangelical Christian organization.
The two rivals have largely been cordial to each other, with Mr. Trump professing to be a fan of Mr. Cruz and Mr. Cruz saying that Mr. Trump has brought important issues to the forefront of the race. But Mr. Trump has proved to be an aggressive counterpuncher and presumably could raise questions about Mr. Cruz’s rich donors and his opposition to the National Security Agency’s metadata program.
Mr. Trump made clear that he considered Mr. Cruz’s remarks as an attack and warned that he would regret the decision.
Looks like @tedcruz is getting ready to attack. I am leading by so much he must. I hope so, he will fall like all others. Will be easy!
Donald J. Trump in Spencer, Iowa, last week.Credit Mark Kauzlarich/Reuters
Donald J. Trump has been scorched by Democrats, mocked by donors, dismissed by some of his rivals and denounced by Republican officials in his home borough of Manhattan. Yet the latest New York Times/CBS poll is the newest data point showing how Mr. Trump is animating the Republican Party far more than the other candidates.
More than four in 10 of the Republican primary voters polled described strong leadership as being of premier importance — over other key qualities seen as driving voter sentiment in past races. The bulk of voters listing leadership as a key quality support Mr. Trump.
He continues to fare well with voters who do not have a college education, but he is also doing well in the New York Times/CBS poll with evangelical voters, just ahead of Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who has picked up support with the group as Ben Carson fades.
Most important, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, while 57 percent of all voters disagree with Mr. Trump’s call to ban Muslim immigrants from coming into the country, the proposal is more popular with Republicans. Some 38 percent of Republican primary voters support it, while 39 percent are against it.
And in New Hampshire, a new survey by WBUR found Mr. Trump stretching his lead. Also of note, in the New York Times/CBS poll, a smaller percentage of all voters favored gun control, down to 51 percent from 58 percent in October. There are few issues that Hillary Clinton has focused on as heavily in her stump speeches, and, in the wake of the San Bernardino attacks that killed 14 people, Democrats spoke aggressively about gun control.
This may not be where the electorate is when votes begin in Iowa and New Hampshire at the beginning of February. But for the moment, Mr. Trump has, almost entirely without his own polling for most of the year, benefited from external events and his own gut instinct about a party that has changed drastically in the last five years.
The Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in his office at the Capitol on Thursday.Credit Stephen Crowley/The New York Times
Despite a concerted push from a broad right-left coalition, Senator Mitch McConnell said he had not determined whether he would bring a bipartisan criminal justice overhaul to the Senate floor next year.
“I haven’t decided yet,” Mr. McConnell, the Kentucky Republican and majority leader, said in an interview on Thursday as he began looking toward 2016.
The Senate leader definitely seemed open to the idea. He said the proposal, which would reduce some mandatory minimum sentences, lead to early release for thousands of nonviolent offenders and set up new programs to help them adjust to life after prison, seemed to meet his criteria for allocating precious Senate floor time.
“It seems to have pretty broad bipartisan support,” Mr. McConnell said of the criminal justice legislation approved by the Judiciary Committee in October. “This is the kind of thing, when you look at it, you have principals on both sides who are interested in it. That makes it worthy of floor time.”
However, the legislation, while endorsed by both conservative and progressive interest groups, could present a sticky election-year vote for some Republicans who typically see themselves as law-and-order politicians. And the issue could get very complicated should Senator Ted Cruz of Texas become the Republican presidential nominee. Mr. Cruz voted against the plan in the Judiciary Committee and was outspoken in his criticism. So if the Republican-led Senate moved forward, it could conceivably be pushing legislation opposed by its candidate for the White House.
Mr. McConnell can expect to come under pressure to allow a criminal justice debate not only from the senior lawmakers who helped write the bill — including Senators Charles E. Grassley, the Iowa Republican who chairs the judiciary panel, and John Cornyn of Texas, the No. 2 Senate Republican — but also from President Obama. The president is a strong advocate of easing mandatory minimum sentences and would like to sign a bill into law in his final year in office.
Supporters of Donald Trump at a campaign rally this month in Manassas, Va.Credit Alex Wong/Getty Images
The Pennsylvania Republican Party’s annual Commonwealth Club luncheon on Friday is usually a festive affair and a lucrative fund-raiser. But this year, the lavish event, held at the Plaza Hotel in New York City with ticket prices starting at $1,000 a plate, has been overshadowed by controversy.
Its keynote speaker is Donald J. Trump.
After Mr. Trump’s plan to bar Muslims from coming to America, Republican lawmakers have been distancing themselves from the billionaire real estate mogul and those from the Keystone State are in the same boat. Those going to the event say that more than a dozen Republicans have backed out in disdain for Mr. Trump’s call for a moratorium on Muslims.
“I’ve heard of folks who aren’t coming,” said Val DiGiorgio, chairman of the Chester County Republican Party. “People have expressed disappointment with the choice, especially with the comments from the last week.”
The backlash could be a preview of what local candidates might face if Republicans pick Mr. Trump as the party’s nominee. A protest is scheduled to take place before the noon event and the liberal group Keystone Progress has garnered nearly 11,000 signatures on a petition seeking to have Mr. Trump removed from the event.
Mr. DiGiorgio said that there had been calls from within the party to rescind Mr. Trump’s invitation to headline the lunch, which is supposed to have about 300 attendees, but that organizers resisted the idea. Several of Pennsylvania’s top lawmakers say they are staying home to work on the budget, others cited scheduling problems, and some, such as Representative Patrick Meehan, have publicly expressed concerns about associating publicly with Mr. Trump.
While the luncheon will bring big dollars to the party’s coffers, Democrats have made it clear that Republicans could pay a price for letting Mr. Trump raise money for them.
“After Donald Trump’s latest offensive attack on the Muslim community, it’s simply not enough for Pennsylvania Republicans to just skip Friday’s fundraiser when the proceeds will benefit their campaigns,” said Jermaine House, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Josh Shapiro, chairman of the Board of Commissioners in Montgomery County, said that local officials who were running for office and attending the lunch should have to answer for Mr. Trump’s policies.
“I think it is a legitimate issue to ask of a Republican in the election next year,” Mr. Shapiro, a rising star in the state’s Democratic Party, said. “Do you side with Donald Trump? Do you want to ban all Muslims from the country? That’s an important question that any nominee for office is going to have to answer.”
Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey in Concord, N.H., last month.Credit Cheryl Senter/Associated Press
Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey has surged to second place in New Hampshire, according to a new poll that shows his persistence there starting to pay off. But Donald J. Trump remains firmly in the lead in the state, despite his provocative policies on Muslims.
A WBUR poll released on Friday showed Mr. Christie’s support in the Granite State more than doubling to 11 percent, placing him in a three-way tie for second place with Senators Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas. And Mr. Trump sits in his strongest position to date in the state, with 27 percent of Republican voters ready to back him in the country’s first primary contest next year.
The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, was conducted across three nights this week. The first night of interviews came before Mr. Trump’s proposal and rest were conducted after his announcement.
“People keep looking for a decline in his numbers after things that he says and there’s been no evidence that he has crossed the line that his own voters have drawn, if they have drawn a line,” said Steve Koczela, president of the MassINC Polling Group, which conducted the survey.
Mr. Christie has been dedicating significant time to New Hampshire and it has been paying off in endorsements and a stronger performance in the polls. However, his ascendance complicates matters for the more experienced candidates who are trying to topple Mr. Trump by further fracturing their support. Mr. Rubio is the most popular second choice, suggesting that he stands to benefit once the field starts to consolidate.
“The field of second-tier candidates has been pretty unsettled,” Mr. Koczela said, noting that Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina have collapsed in the state, while Jeb Bush and Gov. John R. Kasich of Ohio remain stuck in place.
New Hampshire voters are increasingly concerned about the threat of terrorism and are open to measures to restrict access to guns, according to the poll, and they remain attracted to political outsiders.
