Wednesday roundtable: Rising Pac-12 competition

In last weekend’s games, Pac-12 parity was on full display: Cal nearly pulled off an upset of Arizona in Tuscon, Utah continued its undefeated start to the season by throttling Michigan in the Big House and Washington State took Oregon down to the wire, in addition to Oregon State and Washington posting big-margin victories to retain their perfect records. With so many former Pac-12 afterthoughts now playing well, we asked football writers Winston “Pope” Shi, Joseph Beyda and Daily mascot/emancipated minor Do-Hyoung Park, how has your perception of Stanford’s schedule changed, and how great of a threat do these rising teams pose to Stanford?

Do: Sigh. I can just feel it now. This question is inevitably going to devolve into one of those hotly contested Pac-12 vs. SEC arguments, isn’t it? Over my dead body. All I’m going to say is that I think over the last few weeks, the Pac-12 has shown itself to be a ridiculously complete conference from top to bottom, with no such thing as an “easy win” for anybody — just ask ASU about Colorado or Oregon about Wazzu.

Senior running back Kelsey Young (above) is second in yards for the Cardinal offense, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. (ROGER CHEN/The Stanford Daily)

Winston and Joey talk below about the aesthetic qualities of a strong strength of schedule for the Cardinal and how that factors into the discussions of how a Stanford team that wins out will be able to make the College Football Playoff. But I think that’s a given, and the emergence of parity in the Pac-12 isn’t going to change that at all. I think it’s been firmly established that the Pac-12 and SEC are the two top football conferences in the nation (for now) and as long as that’s the case, strength of schedule isn’t the discussion we need to be having right now.

The actual discussion we should be having is that even the “easiest” (if we can even say that anymore) teams on Stanford’s nine-game conference schedule are going to be tough. We thought that Cal would be a pushover again, but the Golden Bears are one devastatingly incredible Hail Mary away from a 3-0 start. Utah has — along with Colorado — emerged from the cellar of the Pac-12 South and picked up a very impressive win at the Big House last week, boasting a balanced offense, tough defense and possibly the best special teams in the conference. Wazzu gave Oregon its money’s worth — and much more.

The point being that the Cardinal’s remaining schedule has many potential upsets looming in the distance that look much more probable than they did just a month ago. Am I scared? Am I threatened? Well, for as much of a steely facade as I try to put up about this team, you’re darn right I am. We’ve seen time and time again that the kind of schedule to be worried about isn’t the type that has one or two huge matchups; it’s the schedules that keep bringing good-but-not-great teams week in and week out that offer the greatest chance at slipping, because the team needs to play its absolute best every week to ensure victory — something that doesn’t necessarily hold true for the former.

I initially thought Stanford’s schedule this week would be the former, with Oregon and UCLA looming large, but it’s quickly shown itself to firmly be the latter. I underestimated you, Pac-12. I’m sorry.

Winston: Stanford always plays a solid schedule, so in that respect, my perception of the Cardinal slate hasn’t really changed. Washington and UCLA have not played up to their lofty projections so far, but every remaining opponent on Stanford’s schedule is capable of beating the Cardinal.

But that’s the issue — Stanford always plays a solid schedule! The schedule is harder than we thought, but that wasn’t unexpected at all. Let’s be honest: Preseason predictions are normally pretty good, and if we come in expecting a hard schedule, Stanford will likely face a tough schedule. I am more optimistic about Stanford now than I was before the season, but that optimism has more to do with Stanford’s performances than it does about its opponents. The real question is about the teams that Stanford schedules in the first place. Is a harder schedule really a better schedule?

There’s obviously an aesthetic quality to playing a tough slate of games. But even though we are in the era of the playoff selection committee, I won’t be convinced that strength of schedule matters until proven otherwise. For a Power 5 conference team, perceptions of team strength are based primarily on avoiding losses, not accruing quality wins. And Stanford hasn’t tried very hard to make itself competitive on the loss-avoidance front.

Stanford and the other California schools nearly torched the Pac-12 until the conference allowed them to play each other annually — in the process, guaranteeing Stanford two generally tough South Division games every year. When Auburn offered San Jose State $3.1 million to play two away games on the Plains, Stanford refused to outbid the Tigers for the privilege of securing a reasonably simple nonconference win. And recent scheduling agreements (Northwestern, Rice, and Central Florida) have thrown the future of the “annual easy home win against a local school” into doubt. I’m glad that Stanford has good teams on its schedule, but I have to admit that there is a price to be paid.

Joseph: Winston makes a great point about scheduling tough opponents in the era of the College Football Playoff. Before, strength of schedule was explicitly, mathematically accounted for in the BCS formula, imperfect as it was; now, playoff committee members will have to make their own (and likely varied) valuations of teams’ schedules.

But I’m not as worried about the “aesthetic” aspect of things. A one-loss Cardinal team will likely make the playoff and a three-loss Cardinal team likely won’t. Strength of schedule would matter more if Stanford finishes with two losses (especially if number two comes against Oregon or UCLA), but before we even have that discussion, the Cardinal have to get through quite a gauntlet, starting with this Saturday.

In the past, Stanford’s offense has struggled against a somewhat undersized Washington defense (the Huskies’ starters, on average, are 10 pounds lighter than the Cardinal’s). That defense has 19 sacks this young season, tied for best in the FBS, but has also given up a lot of points and allowed 291.5 passing yards per game, which ranks 100th nationally. That puts the burden on Stanford’s offensive line to buy Kevin Hogan time in the passing game, and that unit has had its growing pains at times this year (though the Army win was the offensive line’s best performance). Add to that Washington’s impressive second half last week, and Saturday’s Seattle showdown looks tougher than expected.

The same could be said for Notre Dame, which has played Stanford close (or beaten the Cardinal) in three years running and has rebounded from academic violations. Meanwhile, Washington State and Cal stood out last week, which means that the conference’s two recent doormats have elevated themselves into the growing category of “Pac-12 teams who can win any conference game.” (Remind you of Utah?) Stanford’s path to the playoff has been littered with a few more mines, and over a 12-game regular season, that’s bad news.

Still complaining that the only three remaining home games for the Cardinal are against Washington State, Oregon State and Utah? Do-Hyoung Park, Winston Shi and Joseph Beyda have been pumping up the matchups for weeks now at The Daily’s office. Let them know how to temper their excitement at dpark027 ‘at’ stanford.edu, wshi94 ‘at’ stanford.edu and jbeyda ‘at’ stanford.edu.