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Tuteja: Why Stanford men’s basketball is more than mediocre

A few weeks ago, Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News wrote an article on Stanford’s collapse at the end of the regular season. The article concluded, “Stanford basketball will continue to bump along, year after mediocre year, until someone or something prompts Muir’s bosses to force Muir to make the change he doesn’t want to make.”

Wilner is not alone in many of his sentiments, as Daily columnist Winston Shi recently voiced similar opinions about the team and questioned where to place blame.

My answer to these articles and any others that voice a similar sentiment is simple: please stop complaining. Seriously, in my four years at Stanford, it has never made sense to me why people use words such as “mediocrity” to describe the men’s basketball team, and I’ll explain some reasons why in this column.

Proponents of the view that the men’s basketball program has become mediocre usually take one of several strategies to argue this point. I’ll discuss a few briefly along with my responses.

One argument is that the team must be mediocre because they don’t win as much as [insert other Stanford sports team]. I’ve never quite understood this one. In my mind, this comparison is like me saying football had a mediocre year because they didn’t win a national championship like the women’s water polo team did last year. I don’t think it makes sense to compare across sports and, moreover, it seems that many have used the fact that the men’s basketball team isn’t competing for national championships as a reason not to attend games. By that logic, the only sport that people should have attended this year is women’s water polo, as they were the only national championship team from a season ago.

What’s more is that even when the basketball team does well, people seem to always find excuses for it. Just a season ago, the team made the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament. However, whenever anyone talks about it, they say, “Remember, Joel Embiid was injured for Kansas” and refer to the run in the tournament as a “fluke.” Even stranger, it’s usually Stanford fans that remind others of the asterisk to the win.

A second argument people use is that the team just “isn’t very good.” Some go a little further and provide statistics to back this point, such as the fact that the team has made one NCAA tournament appearance in the last seven seasons and has had only two above 0.500 seasons in Pac-12 play in this same time span. However, I think that these two often-cited statistics miss some of the story. For example, in the last four years, Stanford is 91-52 overall, which is roughly a 64% winning percentage. During the past four years, the team has won an NIT championship (2012), made an NCAA Sweet 16 appearance (2014) and will play on Thursday to win its third NIT championship in program history.

While some would argue that winning the NIT is nothing to write home about, it should be noted that it’s not like Stanford is playing schools like Northwest East Southern Tech in every round. For instance, this Thursday in the championship game, Stanford is playing Miami, a team that just two seasons ago was a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament and won the ACC regular season and tournament titles. In the semifinals, Stanford beat Old Dominion, a team that many basketball experts were appalled did not get an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament this season. Moreover, there are a number of “big-name” programs that played in the NIT and were subsequently eliminated from it this season, including Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Arizona State and Tulsa. Yet, not many people talk about these teams suffering from mediocrity or dwindling fan attendance.

Further, it seems strange to call a program “mediocre” when it has produced professional talent. In last year’s NBA draft, Stanford had two players taken in the top 45 picks (Josh Huestis and Dwight Powell). The only other schools to have multiple players picked in the top 45 were Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, UCLA, Arizona, Syracuse, Michigan, Michigan State, Oklahoma State and Connecticut — not bad company to be in. This season, Stanford has three players that are graduating that have a chance to play professionally either in the NBA or overseas. On top of this, Chasson Randle just became Stanford’s all-time leading scorer during the NIT semifinals.

Lastly, I think people forget just how strong the Pac-12 is as a basketball conference. I hear from football fans all the time about how the Pac-12 is on track to overtake the SEC as the nation’s best football conference, and as such, when Stanford loses to Utah in football, no one really seems to mind. I hear statements like “Well, all the Pac-12 teams are good” and “on any given day, anyone can lose to anyone in the Pac-12.”

However, when Stanford loses to Utah in basketball, people automatically assume that the team has collapsed and the program is sinking. This season, four Pac-12 teams made the NCAA tournament, and three of these teams made it to at least the Sweet 16. The team that did not make the Sweet 16, Oregon, lost to No. 1 Wisconsin in a very close game in the 2nd round, and this is the same Oregon team that Stanford almost beat at home on March 1. What’s more, over 50 percent of Stanford’s conference losses this season were to those four teams.

Consider a team like Murray State, which finished the regular season with a record of 27-5. No one would call Murray State “mediocre,” and in fact, Murray State was undefeated in conference play. Yet, when they did not win their conference tournament to get the at-large NCAA tournament spot, they fell out of the tournament and to a No. 3 seed in the NIT. Isn’t it interesting that Stanford was awarded a No. 2 seed in the NIT and Murray State a No. 3 seed? I think this shows that basketball experts recognize that a 9-9 record in Pac-12 play means something. In case you’re wondering, Murray State eventually lost in the NIT quarterfinals to Old Dominion — a team Stanford beat on Tuesday night in Madison Square Garden.

Do I think that the program has room for improvement? Of course. Which program doesn’t? Do I think that the team should have made the NCAA tournament this year? Definitely; I’m a competitive fan just like anyone else. The point of this article is that I think the men’s basketball program is too often characterized as “mediocre,” and I think that it’s unfortunate that many seem to see things that way.

Three of the past four years the team has won over 20 games, with the lone season being a 19-win year. The team consistently has produced pro talent, and it has consistently played tough schedules. Just a season ago, Stanford beat a Kansas team that had last year’s first overall draft pick. I could think of at least 300 other basketball programs that would take the “mediocre results” that the team has produced. It’s sad to me that many at Stanford don’t realize the program’s merits.

Contact Shawn Tuteja at sstuteja ‘at’ stanford.edu.

About Shawn Tuteja

Shawn Tuteja is a senior studying mathematics and statistics. He serves as the color commentator of KZSU 90.1 FM's coverage of the Stanford football team and the play-by-play announcer for men's basketball broadcasts. Hailing from the great state of Alabama, Shawn grew up an avid fan of college football and has written feature articles and columns on a wide range of Stanford sports. Contact him at sstuteja 'at' stanford.edu
  • Winston Shi

    Good piece, even though we disagree. As we discussed yesterday, I think you made a fine point about our asymmetric attitude towards Dawkins’ achievements: Dawkins’ Sweet 16 run is said to be fluky, while his tourney misses are held up as signs of his failures. So let me clarify my views on “flukiness” and how we judge Dawkins.

    Was that Sweet 16 run fluky? Football is a much flukier sport than basketball but we don’t criticize football champions for being fluky. We expect flukiness from football. Every single national championship run requires a ton of luck and is arguably fluky. We can’t really complain about fluky football teams.

    Basketball is not perceived as an inherently fluky sport because generally true talent+coaching wins out over time. So there’s a greater stability of expectations. If a team outperforms expectations there is typically a whiff of flukiness to it. But the tourney is a far more random animal and we should probably have the same kind of attitude towards tourney runs as we do for the national championship in football. If Stanford got lucky with injuries against Kansas or New Mexico had an off night, well, who cares? Still counts.

    I mean, a Sweet 16 run is a Sweet 16 run. Yes, Joel Embiid was out for Kansas. I’ve said in previous columns: what should we care about that? It counts either way. So do Connecticut’s banners in 2011 and 2014. I fully admit that many criticisms of Dawkins that minimize the Sweet 16 run come from an inability to comprehend that Dawkins might actually have done some good coaching. Personally, I simply emphasize the fact that while the run was great, Stanford was lucky to get in the tourney in the first place, and but for a coin-flip decision in the selection committee’s mind (or a 50-50 shot at the end of some close game), Stanford might be gunning for its third NIT championship in four years tonight. Yes, if you look at the odds, Stanford going 1 for 4 on coin flips is a bit of an unlucky fluke; if the Card goes 3 for 4 we’re all talking about how Dawkins has rebuilt the Card, and we aren’t having this discussion (I would still say we should). But I don’t think that Stanford should consistently be in a position where it has a 50-50 shot to get in the Big Dance, as it has been for the last four years. That applies no matter how many coin flips come up heads for the Card.

    Doing well in the tourney is primarily an issue of coaching and talent. But as with the MLB playoffs, the most important thing is getting in the tourney in the first place. And I think the program can field teams that can get in the tourney pretty consistently. It’s certainly produced the NBA/college talent it needs to do that, as you say, and it’s fair to expect Stanford to make the tourney reasonably often with that kind of talent.

  • :)

    why even waste your time talking about a mediocre basketball team?

  • Kenyon Colloran

    If you think one tournament appearance in 5 years isn’t mediocre, then your goals are out of base with Stanford. Even if you don’t want to compare to other sports how about you compare it to Stanford basketeball from 15 years ago. It wasn’t too long ago we were winning games in the tournament every year, often as a very high seed, and making some sweet 16, elite 8, final four runs (though admittedly with some painful flame outs too). It’s possible to consistently win at Stanford in basketball. The potential for more is there and that’s why this is so frustrating.

  • El-Amin’s worst nightmare

    I’m not a big “back in my day” person, but a few things.

    Flash back to 1991 when Stanford wins its first NIT title. With a blip or two in the way, Stanford would go on to make 12 OF THE NEXT 14 NCAA TOURNAMENTS including 11 STRAIGHT. When you think about how a program arcs from middling mediocrity to national championship contender, that ’91 NIT was a turning point, as the program shot up the rankings all the way to the national #1 by the start of the 2000s (IIRC, that Sports Illustrated 1999 college preview issue that proudly proclaimed STANFORD IS #1 still hangs in Jimmy V’s Sports Cafe, and sadly that’s also when they fell victim to the famed jinx).

    (Other events: There was a waitlist for season tickets, the 1997 massacre at Maples (when Stanford gave the UCLA Bruins, two years removed from their national title, what stands to this date their worst defeat in school history)the 1999 season began with a tent city outside of Maples for Sixth Man registrations, the student section extending into GA Upper section 14, the Cardinal was part of one of the largest attended basketball games in the history of the state in its 2001 victory over eventual national champion Duke).

    It made a lot of sense for Stanford to be a men’s basketball national title threat more so than to be so in football. You need less athletes (and thus need to win less battles with the admissions office), and basketball is the kind of sport, as we’ve seen recently, where smaller schools can match up well with the big ones in tournament play. Safe it to say, a lot of Stanford fans around then put their hopes in basketball as their best hope for the Cardinal to win a national title in a showcase sport.

    So to people like Wilner, today’s teams are a big shift from those other teams, and I think there are a lot of internal and external reasons for that (for example, today’s one-and-done era seems to require that you have a few of these elite stars to contend nationally, and to weasel them past admissions and eligibility standards is something Stanford simply just won’t do). So what results is the era Shawn sees, where yes, there are things to be positive about WRT the NBA talent who has emerged from the program and the sparks of quality basketball they play in stretches.

    But to those of us who have seen the program consistently make the tournament and make a few deep runs, these recent teams have been a disappointment. Leave the NIT to the teams who need that as a stepping stone in a climb towards national prominence, the way it was for Stanford back in 1991. This program can do better, in fact, it HAS done better, and to aim for any less is unacceptable.

  • Huey Kwik

    The definition of mediocrity is “not very good,” but you spend the entirety of the article defending Stanford as being “not very bad.”

    You are right in that we should appreciate the good things that have come out of this program.

    It’s still not very good.

  • Candid One

    Nice touch, ST. You might’ve continued your emphasis on academics in your closing paragraph. The PAC-10/PAC-12 transition initially muddled its academic award system. However, over the last 3 seasons, Cardinal Mens Basketball has landed at least 3 players on the PAC-12 All-Academic Team…five in 2014. Graduation rates aren’t an issue either, although it helps to have a dearth of one-and-done players.

  • Candid One

    You cherry-pick nicely. What was the nature of Stanford Men’s Basketball prior to your “flash back”…like for the previous several decades?

    The world has been changing with unprecedented acceleration since the dawn of the World Wide Web twenty years ago. The breadth of a student’s world is no longer as limited as it was in the mid-Nineties. Today, there’s eminently more to “life” than in previous decades.

    I attended the Original Maples Miracle of January 1975, when Stanford beat #2 UCLA and #5 USC in the same week in Maples Pavilion. That was the first prominent demonstration of the notorious Maples bouncing floor. At the end of each game, the stands emptied on the the court, jumping in rhythm to the Stanford Band’s “Alright Now!” and that floor and building seemed like a trampoline. UCLA went on to its 10th NCAA Title and Stanford finished tied for 5th in the PAC-8 at 12-14/6-8. That was Coach Howie Dallmar’s retirement season after 21 years, with a .492 winning percentage. Different times are different, don’tcha know.

  • Candid One

    When 24 wins aren’t very good”, perspective goes begging. Too much of this “mediocrity” dogma is a mediocre indication of geeks as herd animals. Shawn was pulling his punches yet he targets that syndrome well.

  • 206 Cardinal

    Setting aside definitional arguments about the meaning of mediocrity, I think it’s fair to say Stanford basketball is not performing to its potential. This was a senior-heavy team that went to the NCAA tournament last year and played in a league that — while certainly better than Murray State’s Ohio Valley — should not have been so formidable as to keep us from qualifying for the (real) tournament again. More subjectively, in-game decision making by the players just doesn’t look like a well-coached team, which doesn’t feel very Stanford and is more irksome to me than the losses themselves. I really wanted Dawkins to work out, but six years is enough of a body of evidence for me to feel comfortable saying it’s not quite working.

  • Freddie Valdes

    In seven seasons Johnny Dawkins has only had one team finish in the top 4 of the conference standings. That’s why so many people refer to the program as mediocre. While its better than being terrible, finishing 5th, 6th or 7th in a conference of 12 teams is as mediocre as you can get.

    That being said, he definitely gets the most out of his players in the postseason. He has a 15-3 postseason record with 2 NIT titles and a Sweet Sixteen appearance. Not too shabby. Come tournament time, RPI goes out the window and anyone can take you down so this is definitely a notable achievement.

    If he could somehow manage to motivate a team for a full season while limiting his questionable play-calling, we would be talking about the resurgence of Stanford basketball. The guy is definitely a great recruiter and has found some measure of success, so it seems to make sense to give him a couple more seasons to gain some traction.

    After all, Mike Montgomery didn’t start regularly challenging for the conference title and finishing in the AP top 25 until his second decade as head coach (i.e. Brevin Knight’s senior season in 1997). Let’s hope that Dawkins ends up being more like Montgomery and less like Howe Dallmar. Only time will tell.

  • Sharon

    Great article Shawn well written.

  • Huey Kwik

    Freddie Valdes explains why “24 wins aren’t very good” in another comment.

  • Puma_01

    The number of teams in a conference is irrelevant. What matters is the number of good teams. The four teams that finished ahead of Stanford this year all made the NCAA tournament. Once there, they faced eight other NCAA tournament teams that, like Stanford, were unable to beat them. The only teams ultimately able to beat them were Duke and Wisconsin (which are playing each other the National Championship) and Gonzaga (which lost to Duke in the Elite Eight).

    Moreover, our win against Miami was a quality one. Miami had beaten Duke at Cameron this season, snapping Duke’s 41 home-game winning streak. Not only that, they blew them out, winning by 16 points. While Miami ended up with an inconsistent season due to some untimely injuries, they had been on a roll at the end of the season. And they fielded six four-star recruits in their game against us. I don’t know any definition of mediocre that could describe our win over Miami as such.

  • maddogsfavsnpiks

    Shawn Tuteja’s article is an excellent analysis. It exposes the *mediocrity* of sports knowledge possessed by many many very very nerdie nerdie fans and writers. It’s ironic that otherwise intelligent beings could sink when they think to nerd degradation, to skewed views and failed reason.
    * * *
    Clearly (if ya jus’ keep those nerd-glasses smudge-free) the definition of “mediocre” is… middle of the road, middlin’, average, medium.. roughly the middle third 33% to 67%.. out of 352 Div I men’s basketball teams. Therefore :
    BY DEFINITION a team (Stanford) that finishes 3 of the last 4 seasons in the top 20% one year, in the top 4% in another year, and top 20% in a third year, is obviously NOT mediocre.
    — Why not give Dawkins the credit where credit is credibly due?
    * * *
    Furthermore, to blame Coach Dawkins, for losses due to depth issues that seriously hampered this year’s team, for injuries to Malcolm Allen (quite possibly THE true point guard the team has needed to break into the rarified air of the highest seeds of the NCAA Tourney) plus injuries to Verhoeven, Reid, Humphrey AND Rosco Allen.. — to blame JD for these things, is just mediocre thinking.. and an embarrassment to the rest of Nerd Nation.
    * * *
    In fact, any serious basketball failure lately, is likely just as much a function of mediocre nerd fan support, as it is a result of anything Dawkins has done or not done.
    Yup, getta grip on your lip t’ git to the ‘ship.
    * * *
    Thank you Mr Tuteja, for a voice of sports sanity in the midst of this “mediocre” madness.

  • maddogsfavsnpiks

    Puma 01, in his reply to “FreddieValdes” explains why Freddie’s and your comments are inaccurate, askew, off-target, and aren’t very good aim or athletic perspective..

  • El amin’s Worst Nightmare

    CO,

    Okay, I accept that opinion of my view, which is why I hesitate to share such views, much so that I think each passing generation has the right to experience their time they way they please, without people shaking a fist with the “back in my day” line. Though I contend that my selection is not mere “cherry picking”, as it was the only period Stanford achieved the AP #1 ranking in men’s basketball.

    Yet in the interceding time Coach K has just won his fifth national championship at Duke, but perhaps most notable is that he has won them in three different decades, with the game being much different each time. The times may have been different with the big changes in the game, but he has still won and has, save for a rare year or two, always made the NCAA tournament (and done so at an institution very much similar to Stanford).

    As futility has followed both periods we described, those periods have prevented Stanford from earning a place among the nation’s elite programs, something during that time I and many believed Stanford could very well earn (Duke of the West was a popular catchphrase). Where I think the discussion moves from there is how to stop these periods of futility that follow the greatness, and certainly the answer depends on the era.

    Though that dude on Tobacco Road seems to have the answers no matter the era.

  • Candid One

    There’s unbounded silliness in comparing any coach to Coach K. Nor is Duke like Stanford or vice versa. Stanford has the best and largest athletic program in the nation…witness 20 consecutive NACDA Director’s Cups. Only UCLA has more combined NCAA Titles.

    Stanford has 36 varsity sport teams; Duke has 26. Stanford has 104 NCAA Team Titles; Duke has 16. Duke is nowhere in that national comparison.

    Comparing Duke Mens Basketball is an extravagant exercise in myopia.

  • Candid One

    It’s questionable whether any of this year’s seniors will ever make a NBA roster. Until the NIT run, Chasson wasn’t looking too attractive anymore. He’d been marginal in his previous years because his size–and his decent, though unspectacular, 3-pt. ability. Randle’s hot streak during the early season was “wow!” stuff…and the spectacular quickly became the expected. His slump was revealing of the lack of consistent alternative support…and that this was much more of a rebuilding year than fans wanted to accept.

    Randle’s versatility emerged as he found ways, other skills, other aspects of his game, to help the team. What the Cardinal needed was a deep bench–which is didn’t have. However, what Chasson showed in the NIT–as a versatile offensive scorer and as a quietly devastating defender–may have elevated his chances for a NBA career.

    The other two seniors, Brown and Nastic, will have to settle for playing in Europe or elsewhere. Stefan is too flat-footed…6’11” yet can’t play above the rim. Anthony has the least reliable handle among the team’s guards; he’s a good rebounder and his range is good but his quickness and ball handling are too ordinary for the NBA level.

    Stanford’s “talent” is what it is…high school ratings are only meaningful in high school. There’s lots of development potential in the three Allens–especially the twins, in Verhoeven, in Travis, and particularly in Humphrey. Injuries are happenstance and temporary roadblocks. The young talent will be more apparent next year. Stanford’s season was unlucky, which really makes its 24-13 record more remarkable.

    Stanford was a preseason pick for 5th in conference…where it finished. When those early overachieving wins stoked overestimation, the fans must bear the load of their own neuroses.

  • Kenyon Colloran

    There may be 352 Div 1 teams, but there aren’t 352 relevant Div 1 teams. If you think it’s an accomplishment to finish teams like Elon or CSU Bakersfield or other minor schools your goals just aren’t very high. Look at Dawkin’s record in conference. Under 500 total, and just barely above 500 looking at his best 4 seasons.

    And yes Stanford has gotten unlucky with injuries, that doesn’t explain poor offensive play calling. Even without the injured players we had enough talent to make the tournament and didn’t. That’s mediocre.

  • maddogsfavsnpiks

    Mr Colloran, apparently, you miss the points, so you get no points.. that’s a foul.. i go to the line :
    Refresher Course — Of course, there’s a spectrum of skill levels throughout the 352 Div 1 mens basketball teams, for instance…
    There’s (F) some 118 Div 1 IRrelevant men’s basketball teams, give or take a few either way.. the lowest 33% +/- .. that is, the Fs..
    Oh but of course some of those so-called “irrelevant” teams become suddenly relevant when they go on a hot streak and beat a few good teams in a row, gain some confidence, get some good coaching, come together as a team, stay injury free, stay out of mid-season slumps, keep winning thru-out, like Gonzaga when they burst onto the scene way back when, & Wichita St more recently, and SWMissoSt, Gulf Coast Fla, OldDom, etc etc etc year after year jus’ to name a few… and it’s why they play the actual head-to-head games..
    …and also there’s the (C,D)grade level, some 117+/- “mediocre” teams… average, middle of the road teams.. the teams who infrequently challenge the best, but occasionally do rise up now and then, and sometimes rise up to the top or near to it.. which is why they play the games head to head, regardless of seed..
    ..and there’s the (A,B) level.. that’s the good, the very good, the exceptional sweeties, the greatest elite eightists, and best of the rest.. so that’s the top 100, from #100 to #1..
    Thus the point is, Dawkin’s coached teams have very clearly been at “the good” level twice with 2, two !! NIT ‘ships, and once at “the exceptional” Sweet Sixteen level in the last 3 of 4 years..
    ..I wonder how you rate the Mike Montgomery years, because it’s important to realize that as much as Mike Montgomery was exceptional and great towards the end of his years at Stanford, he was close to nada in the beginning, and slowly over the years got better, but didn’t reach the Sweet Sixteen til his 19th year !! (can you count that high Mr Colloran?) his 19th year as a head coach, and he climbed the ladder, especially when he got a couple great point guards (Knight n Lee), then he challenged “the best and the great”… and came close to the best with the maddest of Madsens..
    Oh by the by, Dawkins’ head to head record vs Mike M is, JD 7, MM 6.. Let that sink in…
    (Realize this – even tho those 13 head to head games were over the course of Dawkins’ earliest years as a HC and MM was fecund with the knowledge of 26-32 years + his time as a pro, all under his belt and his brim)..
    ..and by the by and the by, did you know Malcolm Allen, who’s injured and out this whole year, has more hops than his twin bro’ Marcus ? and he’s a *tru point guard*, and you need a tru point guard to run the offense and call the plays on the court… did you know that Mr. Colloran ?
    – – –
    Notice :
    Because you inaccurately brand Dawkins as “mediocre”, (probably because you don’t have a clue about coaching at that level yourself).. you don’t even get a “mediocre” grade like a C or a D, you get an F, for fail..
    Congratulations, try again, it’s free.

  • maddogsfavsnpiks

    @ 206 Cardinal.. you write, “This was a senior-heavy team..it’s fair to say.. not performing to its potential.” …witch you blame on Dawkins. and say nothing of the darth and the dirth of injuries, in “fairness”, nor the lack of a tru point guard, that Chasson took on selflessly, and no doubt you’ve heard him honor his coach as the key mentor.. and you say naught of the key roles some freshmen and sophs were forced to play… and how that interplay in game situations takes time even 19 years if you look at when Mike Montgomery first got to the sweet 16 Dance – that’s D as in defense and dance.. Do you know anything ’bout teaching good defense in basketball ? …and you make no mention of the prolonged, month-long slumps in their shot both Brown and Randle struggled thru from the end of January to mid March… all while listening to more of your gripping grousing and griping..!
    ..and then you say, “I really wanted Dawkins to work out, but six years is enough of a body of evidence for me to feel comfortable saying it’s not working.”
    — ..a kindler, gentler “Git out!” ? ..even while JD took us to the Sweet D just last year ? ..and now has 2, two, TWO ‘Ships to his cred too…! ..don’t you know ?..
    Yet you clearly know little to nothing of Head Coaching a team at this level.
    Why not wake up or git out yurself..?