1. Madden in real life: Forty-nine-yard screen pass touchdown catch vs. California

Any Heisman highlight film for McCaffrey must feature this play, which demonstrates every facet of McCaffrey’s game as a runner and a receiver.

McCaffrey takes a screen pass in the backfield and before he can even turn his head completely around, he’s hit and wrapped up by a linebacker, who was all over the play. McCaffrey shows off his strength by staying upright and running through the tackle.

Then, 280-pound defensive tackle James Looney gets two hands on him and appears to be in position to bring him down. The 205-pound McCaffrey keeps his legs churning and escapes the tackle. Despite all the hard work, McCaffrey has only made it back to the line of scrimmage at this point.

Now, it’s all about McCaffrey’s ability to change direction. With linebacker Hardy Nickerson racing in from the right side, McCaffrey slows to a stop before jumping to the right, avoiding any contact with Nickerson, who lunges by him without laying a hand on him.

It’s off to the races for McCaffrey, whose acceleration sends him flying by the defenders who were once at his side. Again, the change of direction — this time with a single firm planting of the left foot — sends Cal safety Griffin Piatt sprawling to the ground and McCaffrey moving back to the middle of the field.

With about 27 yards to the endzone, McCaffrey recognizes he’s miles ahead of just about everyone except for two final players, corners Darius Allensworth and Darius White. He patiently follows the blocking of his receivers, Michael Rector and Francis Owusu, before making one final cut to the right side and plunging into the endzone.

Vision, acceleration, change of direction, strength — it’s all on display for McCaffrey here. As my colleague Vihan Lakshman said on the KZSU call of this play, this was Madden-style moves happening in real life.

2. The #WildCaff is born: Seventy-yard cutback touchdown run vs. UCLA

Oct. 15, 2015 will forever live on as the night on which the #WildCaff legend was truly born.

McCaffrey put on a show with a school-record 243 rushing yards and a school-record 4 rushing touchdowns, possibly the best single performance of the college football season to that point against the nation’s No. 18 team. And a large portion of that performance came from McCaffrey’s duties as the Wildcat quarterback.

Twice, McCaffrey took a snap directly out of the Wildcat, with no motion whatsoever, and took the carry into the endzone, including a 9-yard score and this 70-yard score.

In addition to his ability to score out of the Wildcat, in the third quarter Kevin Hogan handed it off to McCaffrey at Stanford’s 30-yard line, and the sophomore initially followed his blocking left. The play appeared slow to develop, but all of a sudden, McCaffrey planted his left foot, pivoted, hit the turbo button and exploded through the huge hole that had opened on the right side. From there, it was all about breakaway speed — no one was catching him at the 5-yard line this time.

Back in his days as an assistant coach, David Shaw talked about how he teaches running backs to deal with cutbacks.

“We teach our backs that sometimes, a giant cutback lane will open on the backside A gap, if they see it they should take it, but they shouldn’t be looking for it all the time,” Shaw said. “It’s like a $20 bill. If you are walking down the block and see a $20, you should take it, but if you spend your whole life walking around looking at the ground hoping to see a $20 bill, you’ll get hit by a bus.”

Well, McCaffrey saw a $100 bill, picked it up and ran away before the bus even turned the corner. And just like that, the #WildCaff was born.

3. The Swiss army knife: touchdown throws

All season long, McCaffrey’s calling card has been his versatility — this week, he was named the Paul Hornung Award winner as the nation’s most versatile player. He can run the ball between the tackles and outside of the tackles, he can take passes out of the backfield and lined up in the slot, he can return kicks and punts, he can run the option and he can run the Wildcat. Yet, the one tool missing from his resume was the ability to throw. Against Colorado, we found out he has that one too.

Despite Stanford already owning a 35-10 lead, Stanford whipped out a new play from the playbook. Hogan pitches the ball to McCaffrey who’s running right on the halfback option. McCaffrey sells the run, then quickly pulls the ball up into a throwing motion before throwing the ball with perfect touch over the Colorado defense and into the waiting arms of Austin Hooper, who takes it into the endzone.

Against USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game, McCaffrey took the ball from a pitch on the reverse while running right. Still moving to the right, McCaffrey sends a beautiful throw to Kevin Hogan in stride for another touchdown pass.

Quite literally, Christian McCaffrey can do it all. His quarterback rating also happens to be higher than DeShaun Watson’s, the Clemson quarterback named a Heisman finalist.

4. Hei5man: Kick-return touchdown vs. California

At this point in the season, the Heisman campaign for McCaffrey was already in full swing. Despite another 7:30 p.m. start time, McCaffrey gave another Heisman-worthy performance to continue vaulting his name up the charts.

The major component missing from his resume was the lack of a kick-return touchdown despite taking kicks back all season long –- he had returned two kicks over 60 yards already, but neither finished in the endzone. Against Cal, that bullet point found its way onto the Heisman resume.

With under a minute left in the second quarter, McCaffrey obliterated the need for the two-minute drill offense by taking the lane given to him by his blockers and showing off superb breakaway speed. He initially took the kick up the middle but kicked out to the right sideline while breaking an arm tackle. From there, it was all about the speed as McCaffrey outraced everyone on his way to a 98-yard kick return touchdown.

The touchdown largely contributed to another school-record performance, this time with 389 all-purpose yards, the record which McCaffrey again broke in the Pac-12 Championship against USC.

5. Who you gonna call? Sixty-seven-yard catch vs. USC in the Pac-12 Championship

For the first (and only) time, Stanford trailed USC in the Pac-12 Championship. The Trojans scored a touchdown to take a 16-13 lead with just over three minutes left in the third quarter. The Stanford offense had sputtered so far in the second half, with just a combined 22 yards on its two drives. On the other side, the USC offense scored back-to-back touchdowns to open the half. Momentum had swung squarely in the Trojans favor, and Levi’s Stadium was rocking for USC.

Stanford had only thrown the ball eight times thus far all game, as opposed to 38 runs. Yet facing a third-and-six, it was absolutely a passing down. With the season on the line, needing to give its defense a breather and retake some momentum, who did Stanford call upon? The #WildCaff.

McCaffrey ran the angle route out of the backfield, shook off linebacker Olajuwon Tucker with a single cut and made the catch in stride right at the first-down marker. From there, it was off to the races.

He cut in-and-out while waiting for Devon Cajuste to come in and deliver a monster block on USC safety Chris Hawkins. Because he waited for the block, USC cornerback Kevin Seymour caught up and made a shoestring tackle to keep McCaffrey out of the endzone, dragging him down at the 6-yard line.

Stanford’s favorite matchup all season long has been an opposing linebacker on McCaffrey, and it paid off yet again with the season on the line.

McCaffrey finished with 207 rushing yards, 105 receiving yards and a grand total of 461 all-purpose, a school-record and the fifth-best total in FBS history, not to mention a passing, rushing and receiving touchdown. Oh, and he broke the 27-year-old record of 1988 Heisman winner Barry Sanders for the most all-purpose yards in a single season in college football history, while needing seven fewer touches to do it.

6. McClutch: Tiptoeing 30-yard run down the sideline at Washington State

With 3:27 remaining, Stanford trailed Washington State by one and had just taken over at the Cougars’ 39-yard line after Quenton Meeks’ interception. However, the Cardinal had struggled to move the ball on offense all day – to that point, the Cardinal had managed just 275 yards of offense, their lowest total since the season opener at Northwestern.

Stanford runs Power to the left side and there didn’t appear to be much room. McCaffrey was first hit at the 38-yard line and should have been brought down for a short gain. He immediately escapes a second tackle aimed at his legs, all while accelerating into the second level of the defense.

Starting at the Washington State 34-yard line, McCaffrey tiptoes down the sideline with incredible speed. He breaks another diving arm tackle at the 25-yard line and manages to stay inbounds while stumbling forward in reacting to the attempted tackle. Finally, McCaffrey is spun down at the 9-yard line.

If McCaffrey is stopped at the line of scrimmage, as most running backs would have been, who knows whether Stanford marches down the field to put Conrad Ukropina in good enough position to hit the game-winning field goal. Without that field goal, Stanford doesn’t win the Pac-12 North.

7. Sometimes-I’m-not-down-at-the-one-yard-line McCaffrey: UCLA touchdown runs

All season long, it seemed like McCaffrey had the propensity to fall just short of the endzone on his runs. When you have Remound Wright, arguably the nation’s best goal-line back, in the wings, it’s not a problem. Even still, though, McCaffrey made a statement by finishing with a school-record 4 rushing touchdowns against UCLA

McCaffrey finished three chances on runs starting in UCLA territory.

First, McCaffrey showed off his own ability to be a power runner, pushing through his own blocker, Bryce Love, and UCLA corner Jaleel Wadood (who later became more infamous as the victim of “The Catch”) at the 1-yard line to plow into the endzone from a 9-yard run out of the Wildcat.

Just six minutes later in the second quarter, McCaffrey took the handoff out of the I-formation and raced through the wide-open lane created by his blockers to sneak into the left side of the endzone untouched for a 28-yard score.

After the 70-yard score that stands at No. 3 in this list, McCaffrey scored his fourth and final touchdown on another handoff out of the I-formation, this time running right. McCaffrey sailed right into the lane created by his blockers and again absorbed contact again at the 1-yard line to plunge into the endzone.

This game and performance put McCaffrey on the national map for the first time, despite yet another 7:30 p.m. start time.

8. Running back or receiver? Fifty-yard touchdown catch vs. Washington

The only FBS player to lead his team in both rushing and receiving yards, McCaffrey put on a show against Washington, finishing with over 100 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards for the first time in his career.

In the third quarter, McCaffrey ran a wheel right down the right side of the field, blowing through the zone coverage in the flat, making the catch in stride and not losing a step in breaking a final tackle before strutting down the sideline and into the endzone for a 50-yard score.

Though Derrick Henry, the other running back named as a Heisman finalist, might be able to stake claim as the best true running back in the nation — though McCaffrey finished with an equivalent yards per carry average and just 139 less rushing yards — McCaffrey certainly separates himself from Henry when it comes to serving as a receiving threat out of the backfield. McCaffrey finished the season with 540 receiving yards in comparison to Henry’s 97.

9. Off to the races: UCLA 96-yard kick return

McCaffrey largely struggled returning kicks over the first few games before breaking out a 67-yard return the previous week against Arizona. However, this return truly marked his entrance into college football as one of the best kick returners in the nation.

McCaffrey found the lane created for him by his blockers and kicked out to the left sideline at the perfect time. He wasn’t quite able to outrace UCLA kicker Kaimi Fairbairn — if you were averaging 269 all-purpose yards per game, you’d get tired too — for the score and was dragged down inside the 10-yard line.

McCaffrey finished the game with 369 all-purpose yards, just 10 shy of what was then the school-record held by Glyn Milburn.

10. Goodnight, Marvell Tell: Fifty-yard run vs. USC in the Pac-12 Championship

Among the plethora of long runs to choose from, McCaffrey’s 50-yard scamper against the Trojans stands out for the way he made USC safety Marvell Tell completely whiff.

On Stanford’s first drive of the second quarter, McCaffrey takes a first-and-10 carry behind the right guard, splitting the nose tackle and linebacker and speeding into open space. With Tell standing directly in front of him, McCaffrey fakes to the right and cuts slightly to the left, all while maintaining his forward momentum to burst past the defenders at either side. That slight change of direction sends Tell sliding by McCaffrey to the ground without even putting a hand on McCaffrey, enabling him to sprint for another 35 yards before he’s pushed out of bounds after a gain of 50.

McCaffrey’s elite ability to change direction while maintaining speed propelled him to plays just like this all season long.

Contact Michael Peterson at mrpeters ‘at’ stanford.edu.

McCaffrey, who is also a finalist for the Walter Camp Football Foundation Player of the Year Award, is looking to become the second Heisman winner in Stanford history after quarterback Jim Plunkett won the award in 1970. He is the fifth Heisman finalist in school history, joining Plunkett (1970), John Elway (1982), Toby Gerhart (2009) and Andrew Luck (2010, 2011).

The other Heisman finalists are running back Derrick Henry of Alabama and quarterback Deshaun Watson of Clemson.

McCaffrey was one of the premier forces in the nation in all three phases of the game: rushing, receiving and returning. The sophomore is currently second in the nation behind Henry with 1,847 rushing yards, second in the nation among running backs with 540 receiving yards and second in the nation with 1,042 kickoff return yards.

In all, his 3,496 all-purpose yards lead the nation by a margin of over 1,000 yards, shattering the previous all-time record of 3,250 set by Barry Sanders in his legendary 1988 season. His 2,387 yards from scrimmage also lead the nation by a wide margin.

Although McCaffrey has drawn criticism for needing 13 games to set the all-purpose yardage record (as opposed to Sanders’ 11), he actually set the record in seven fewer touches than Sanders, the winner of the 1988 Heisman Trophy.

The 2015 Heisman Trophy will be awarded to one of the finalists in a ceremony in New York City on Saturday.

This post will be updated.

Contact Do-Hyoung Park at dhpark ‘at’ stanford.edu.

Instead, as the Pac-12 champion, No. 6 Stanford will play in the 102nd Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual against Big Ten runner-up No. 5 Iowa, which suffered a tough 16-13 defeat in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday to Michigan State on a last-second touchdown that won the game for the Spartans.

“If the worst thing we can do is go to the Rose Bowl, I think that’s pretty cool,” said head coach David Shaw after the Cardinal’s Pac-12 title victory Saturday night.

In the two Dec. 31 Playoff bowls, No. 1 Clemson will play No. 4 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, while No. 2 Alabama will match up against No. 3 Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl.

Although he had stayed mum for the most part about his team’s College Football Playoff aspirations during the season, instead choosing to focus on things within the team’s control, Shaw was very unequivocal about his stance on where he feels Stanford should be with regards to this year’s Playoff after Saturday’s game.

“The question is, should there be an eight-team playoff? Absolutely,” Shaw said. “If you win one of the big five conferences, should you be in the playoff? Absolutely. Eventually I think we’ll get there. We’re not there now, but it’s the only thing that makes sense.”

In the Hawkeyes, the Cardinal will meet a third different Big Ten opponent as it makes its third trip to the Rose Bowl in the last four seasons. Stanford defeated Wisconsin 20-14 in the 2013 Rose Bowl, while the Cardinal lost to Michigan State 24-20 in the 2014 Rose Bowl.

Before this stretch of three Rose Bowls in four seasons, Stanford played in the “Granddaddy of Them All” just once in a stretch from 1973 to 2012. This will mark just the third time in Stanford history that the Cardinal will qualify for a third Rose Bowl in four years, matching similar stretches from 1925-28 and 1934-37.

Stanford will presumably be making its 15th Rose Bowl appearance in program history; the Cardinal are 6-7-1 all-time in the hallowed game. Meanwhile, Iowa will make its sixth Rose Bowl appearance in program history and first since 1991, a 46-35 loss to Washington.

Iowa is enjoying perhaps the best season in program history. The Hawkeyes went 12-0 in the regular season for the first time ever and rose as high as No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings before their close loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship. Entering championship weekend, they were one of only two undefeated teams in the country along with Clemson.

The Hawkeyes are much like Stanford in that they play hard-nosed, power football behind a big offensive line, stud running back in Jordan Canzeri and a stiff, battle-tested defense, which should make the Hawkeyes very similar to 2012 Wisconsin and 2013 Michigan State, the Cardinal’s last two Rose Bowl opponents.

The 2016 Rose Bowl Game will mark the first ever meeting between the Cardinal and Hawkeyes.

The Cardinal and Hawkeyes will meet in the 102nd Rose Bowl Game on Jan. 1 at 2 p.m., with the game televised by ABC.

Contact Do-Hyoung Park at dhpark ‘at’ stanford.edu.

This team has come a long way since that season-opening loss at Northwestern. Through the highs of a dramatic victory over USC, a heartbreaking loss to Oregon, a record-breaking triumph over UCLA and countless more moments, this Stanford team has persevered on the back of its monstrous offensive line, game-changing efforts from Christian McCaffrey and the grizzled leadership of Kevin Hogan.

But they saved their best for last.

Behind a record-shattering night from McCaffrey, another brutally efficient game from Hogan and an inspired team effort for the ages, No. 7 Stanford (11-2, 8-1 Pac-12) rode its playmakers in one dramatic charge, fighting through late adversity to pull away from No. 20 USC (8-5, 6-3) in a 41-22 victory and secure the 15th conference title in program history — and presumably, a berth in the 102nd Rose Bowl.

“Just as a team, I’m very proud of the guys for sticking together after the beginning of the year and a couple of the ups and downs,” said head coach David Shaw. “Our guys were finding ourselves and then coming off and playing great football down the stretch as well as anybody in the nation.”

There simply aren’t words in the English language adequate enough to describe the titanic performance of McCaffrey.

What more can be said about sophomore running back Christian McCaffrey (left)? He broke Barry Sanders’ record of 3,250 all-purpose yards in a season with a record-breaking 461 all-purpose yards in the finest performance of his Stanford career. (SAM GIRVIN/The Stanford Daily)

He recorded receiving, rushing and passing touchdowns, rushed for 207 yards and notched 105 receiving yards as part of a ludicrous 461-yard all-purpose day — by far a school record, and giving him a season total of 3,496 yards, shattering the all-time single-season record of 3,250 set by Barry Sanders in 1988.

After the game, the stage at the awards ceremony shook as Stanford’s players and fans, as one, stood and rocked in unison, chanting, “Heisman! Heisman! Heisman!” in commemoration of McCaffrey’s historic effort to push Stanford to victory.

And in his postgame presser, Shaw couldn’t have been more blunt about his opinion on the matter.

“[McCaffrey] here is the best player in the nation,” Shaw said. “I don’t know if there’s any question. There’s nobody in the nation doing what he’s doing. It’s not even a debate.”

But for as tremendous as McCaffrey’s effort was, the game took an equally gutty effort from Hogan, the team’s elder statesman, for the Cardinal to push past the Trojans for the second time this season.

McCaffrey wasn’t the only one to record touchdowns in three phases of the game — Hogan added rushing, passing and receiving touchdowns of his own as part of a 9-for-12, 144-yard effort in which he wasn’t asked to do too much as a passer but excelled when he was, completing all of his passes after the first quarter.

But more importantly, his quiet confidence was the consistent force that made sure that even when Stanford faced a USC comeback in the second half, Stanford never faltered, instead roaring back with aplomb to put the title squarely in the Cardinal’s crosshairs.

“It’s so fun when we get put in situations where we have to go through adversity because [Hogan] is the ice man,” McCaffrey said. “When I’m sitting there knowing that he’s our quarterback, I know we’ve got nothing to worry about because that’s one of the greatest leaders and greatest competitors I’ve ever seen in my life.”

“What he’s been able to do here with his arm, with his legs and to be honest, with his heart and his toughness, taking us to three Pac-12 Championship games in four years is unbelievable,” Shaw added. “It’s unmatched.”

Although fifth-year senior quarterback Kevin Hogan only threw the ball 12 times on a run-heavy day for the Cardinal, he didn’t have an incomplete pass after the first quarter and accounted for rushing, receiving and passing touchdowns to push Stanford to victory. (SAM GIRVIN/The Stanford Daily)

Behind Hogan’s and McCaffrey’s efforts, Stanford outgained USC 417-357 and held the ball for 35 minutes, getting off to a fast start but using a late turnover generated by a rejuvenated defense to hold off a furious Trojans comeback and pull away in the fourth quarter.

USC started off incredibly slowly and Stanford dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in the first quarter, but the Cardinal were held to two field goals and a turnover on downs on three of their first four red-zone possessions to limit the Cardinal’s lead to 13-0 late in the second quarter.

However, the Cardinal broke out some trickery to hit the end zone in the fourth of those trips, with Barry Sanders taking the handoff and pitching it on a reverse to McCaffrey, who found Hogan in the end zone on a touchdown pass — his second of the year, and the first receiving touchdown of Hogan’s career.

“My job was easy,” McCaffrey said. “Those are always the scariest ones though when he’s that wide open. You’re just praying that you get it to him.”

But USC battled back, driving 71 yards for a field goal to cut the halftime lead to 13-3 and then driving 65 and 75 yards on its first two possessions of the second half to take a 16-13 lead.

And then the defense found its second wind and turned the tables in a big way.

With Stanford up 20-16 and USC driving down the field, senior inside linebacker Blake Martinez stripped the ball from USC quarterback Cody Kessler on his first sack of the season in the third quarter, allowing sophomore defensive end Solomon Thomas to scoop up the ball and run it back 34 yards for a touchdown.

Senior inside linebacker Blake Martinez (left) forces a fumble by USC quarterback Cody Kessler in the third quarter, which was returned 34 yards by Solomon Thomas to give Stanford a two-score lead. The sack was Martinez’s first of the year. Martinez led Stanford in tackles with 11. (SAM GIRVIN/The Stanford Daily)

After that, Stanford’s secondary, led by the returns of top cornerbacks Ronnie Harris and Alijah Holder, put USC’s talented receiving corps on lockdown, limiting stud wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster to just 87 yards on his 11 receptions.

“When Ronnie’s back on the field, it’s just that energy, that fire, that passion,” Shaw said. “He made some great plays. He doesn’t back down from anybody. The rest of our guys felt that.”

Even when Harris had to leave the game because his injured ankle was bothering him, Holder and sophomore Alameen Murphy showed up with the finest performances of their young careers to absolutely shut Smith-Schuster down and limit Kessler’s downfield options.

“Alijah Holder is a spectacular treat,” Harris said. “He’s not even at 100 percent, and you guys just witnessed some of the stuff he can do. He’s going to be one hell of a player coming up these next couple of years.”

With Stanford up 34-22 with time winding down in the fourth quarter, the secondary forced a USC turnover on downs to effectively end the game. Stanford added a fourth-down conversion and a late McCaffrey rushing touchdown to reach the final 41-22 margin and put the Trojans away for good.

After returning in limited capacity from an ankle injury, fifth-year senior cornerback Ronnie Harris (center) brought “juice” to the team, according to head coach David Shaw, and did an admirable job of defending stud wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, along with Alijah Holder and Alameen Murphy. (RAHIM ULLAH/The Stanford Daily)

Stanford took the Trojans’ best shot. And the Cardinal prevailed, reaffirming their status as not just conference champions, but kings of California.

“We knew it was going to be a battle,” Shaw said. “We knew it was going to be kind of a test of wills.”

And even though victories by Clemson and Alabama ensured that Stanford will almost certainly be left out of the College Football Playoff, nobody cares about that — because on this day in Santa Clara, the Cardinal came, saw and conquered to prevail in their ultimate goal all season: to win the Pac-12.

And it was as sweet as the smell of roses in Pasadena on Jan. 1.

“The Rose Bowl will never get old,” Harris said. “Neither will Disneyland.”

Contact Do-Hyoung Park at dhpark ‘at’ stanford.edu.

For a photo gallery of the Pac-12 Championship Game, click here.

McCaffrey truly did it all for Stanford, gaining 207 on the ground, 105 in the air, 149 on returns and even completing an 11-yard TD pass to quarterback Kevin Hogan, good for a total of 461 all-purpose yards. The performance put a cherry on top of a historic season for the sophomore, who broke Barry Sanders’ NCAA single-season all-purpose yards record with a two-yard scramble in the second quarter.

A resurgent USC kept the game close through three quarters, but ultimately the Trojans couldn’t keep pace with the Cardinal’s powerful offensive performance. Trojan quarterback Cody Kessler completed 22 of his 37 passes for a respectable 187 yards, but the senior lost a fumble in the third quarter that sophomore Solomon Thomas returned for a touchdown to put the game out of reach.

The remaining Stanford players were left with little to do on McCaffrey’s big night, but still managed a number of solid individual performances. Quarterback Kevin Hogan went 9-for-12 for 144 yards and a touchdown, and running back Remound Wright added 24 more rush yards on 8 carries.

The victory should pave the way for the Cardinal to appear in the 102nd Rose Bowl game, their third such appearance in the last four years.

Contact Andrew Mather at amather ‘at’ stanford.edu.

It was a move meant to show the team that even though USC was ranked No. 6 at the time and Stanford was unranked, the Cardinal were no underdog — while USC’s status was anointed through preseason hype and speculation, Stanford had earned the right to be confident through its track record of big wins in big games.

We thought the stage was big then, but three months later, the stage has never been as big as it will be on Saturday for Stanford at Levi’s Stadium.

As the Pac-12 season comes full circle with the two teams that began conference play set to close it out, a Rose Bowl berth lies at stake for both the No. 7 Cardinal (10-2, 8-1 Pac-12) and the No. 24 Trojans (8-4, 6-3) in the Pac-12 Championship Game as Stanford seeks a return to Pasadena for the third time in four seasons and USC looks to salvage what once looked to be a lost season.

“It’s been a tough road, a hard road,” said head coach David Shaw. “Our guys have fought every single week. We’ve got one game left in our season before bowl season starts so we’re going all-in.”

What’s more: For the first time in a very, very long time, Stanford will be playing with national title hopes at stake this late in the season, with the Cardinal needing just one loss by Clemson or Alabama to have a clear shot at the College Football Playoff.

Not that the Cardinal will be checking those other scores, of course.

“I’m not on the committee and nobody on our team’s on the committee,” Shaw said. “We’re a football team. We have to try to win a football game. If we’re easily distracted by stuff that happens off our field, then we don’t deserve to win.”

Even though Stanford outdueled USC 41-31 on the road earlier this season, the Cardinal can’t be caught looking ahead in the most critical juncture of their year; these are two very different teams from the squads that took the field in September in Los Angeles.

“You have to treat them like completely different games,” Shaw said. “There’s no carry-over outside of looking at what worked and what didn’t work.”

“You’ve got to look even more intently at what they’ve done since we played them and what we’ve done since we played them. We’re a different team emphasizing different things since we played them back then.”

While Stanford ran a balanced, pro-style offense and USC ran a spread in that September game, both Stanford and USC have since re-found their identities as power-run teams — in fact, Shaw believes that the Cardinal and Trojans are the only two power-run teams left in the conference.

That USC game was the first in a stretch of a school-record nine consecutive games in which sophomore running back Christian McCaffrey eclipsed 100 rushing yards. Since then, all McCaffrey has done is become the centerpiece of the Stanford offense and presumably cement his status as a Heisman Trophy finalist.

Meanwhile, with the firing of Steve Sarkisian and the hiring of Clay Helton as head coach, the Trojans have also returned to their roots as a run-first team behind the two-headed rushing attack of Justin Davis and Ronald Jones, taking a lot of the onus off of the right arm of quarterback Cody Kessler.

“Both very, very talented running backs,” Shaw said. “[Jones] is just explosive. He’s so fast and so quick. It’s a great 1-2 punch. They’ve got a couple of other backs that they roll in there too, but those two have had really good seasons.”

Even with the running game likely to be the focus of USC’s offense, make no mistake: The Trojans’ absurd talent at wide receiver, led by stud sophomore JuJu Smith-Schuster, is poised to continue the recent streak of big plays that have plagued a Stanford secondary playing without its two best corners in Ronnie Harris and Alijah Holder.

“I know USC is watching our last couple of games and getting excited, because we’ve given up a lot of explosive plays in the last couple of games,” Shaw said. “We have to limit those with a very talented USC team.”

Luckily for Stanford, news on the injury front is promising for both Holder and Harris: Shaw said this week that Holder would likely play as part of a rotation at the very least, and that Harris was ahead of schedule in his recovery and could return as soon as Saturday.

Given that Smith-Schuster had a 153-yard day against a healthy Stanford secondary in September and the talented Darreus Rogers and Steven Mitchell, Jr. have also had successful seasons, the welcome injury news couldn’t have come soon enough, particularly with Stanford having allowed 100-yard receivers in each of its last two weeks.

“The biggest thing that we need to do is eliminate big plays,” said senior safety Dallas Lloyd. “If we can do our job and eliminate those big plays and make offenses work to move the ball incrementally down the field on us, then we’ll have a lot more success.”

Stanford’s front seven will also have a tall task ahead of it, as the Trojans’ running game has found its rhythm despite losing three starting offensive linemen to injury (Max Tuerk, Toa Lobendahn and Kahliel Rodgers) since the teams last met.

That very same battle on the other side of the ball might well dictate the game.

Although McCaffrey was held to below 100 rush yards for the first time in 10 weeks last Saturday by Notre Dame, the Trojans will be playing without two of the key pieces of its run defense in linebackers Cameron Smith and Lamar Dawson, giving McCaffrey and the Stanford offensive line a more favorable matchup to work with as the Cardinal will look to dictate the tempo of the game and hold the ball.

With fifth-year senior quarterback Kevin Hogan coming off of the best game of his career and finding his best rapport of the season with receiver Devon Cajuste, all phases of the Cardinal offense are clicking at the right time.

It’s just a matter of whether the Cardinal can show up on Saturday and play a big game on their biggest stage of the season — and if history is any indication, they’re absolutely prepared to do so.

“We know that’s what’s going to happen this week,” Lloyd said. “It’s going to be head-to-head, physical football. That’s what we live for; that’s what we train for all year.”

In 2012 and 2013, that determination was enough to give Stanford the edge in rematches against UCLA and Arizona State to give the team one last push into Pasadena. With another Rose Bowl — and possibly a Playoff berth — at stake, the Cardinal will no doubt have their eyes on the prize.

Stanford and USC will duel with the Pac-12 title at stake at 4:45 p.m. Saturday. The game will be televised on ESPN.

Contact Do-Hyoung Park at dhpark ‘at’ stanford.edu.

Michael Peterson: Stanford 38, USC 35

Stanford fans rightfully fear the Cardinal playing USC. The Trojans have as much talent as anybody in the conference — Cody Kessler, Juju Smith-Schuster, Adoree’ Jackson, Su’a Cravens and Ronald Jones are among the best at their respective positions in the conference. If Alijah Holder and Ronnie Harris can’t play on Saturday, Stanford could be in for a rough night trying to slow down Smith-Schuster, who is seventh in the nation with 109 receiving yards per game, and Kessler, the Pac-12’s second most efficient quarterback. However, Stanford owns a clear advantage when its offense is on the field. USC lost linebackers Cameron Smith and Lamar Dawson to injuries and has struggled for much of the year to slow down opposing offenses, surrendering 400 total yards of offense per game, which is 70th in the nation.

Against Notre Dame, the Stanford offense overcame its inability to truly establish the run to win in another brilliantly called and executed offensive game. However, against USC, Stanford should be able to do a much better job establishing the run, which will only help red-hot Kevin Hogan. I expect this game to play out similarly to the Stanford-Notre Dame game, where turnovers, red-zone performance or a big play here and there will determine the winner. Whoever has the ball last might very well win the game, but ultimately, Kevin Hogan pulls out another clutch fourth-quarter scoring drive to give Stanford the win in yet another back-and-forth, nail-biting classic in what’s becoming one of the better rivalries in college football.

Vihan Lakshman: Stanford 41, USC 37

This game feels eerily reminiscent of the 2013 clash between Stanford and USC: a revitalized Trojan squad playing its best football under an interim head coach versus a Cardinal team coming off of an emotional, field-storming victory at home over a would-be national title contender. But those kind of cute comparisons can only take you so far — the game on the field promises to be of a much different flavor than the defensive struggle of two years ago. Under Clay Helton, the Trojans have rallied around a physical brand of football and will almost certainly look to attack Stanford on the ground behind their massive offensive line and emerging running back in Ronald Jones — a formula that worked brilliantly for both Oregon and Notre Dame against the Cardinal. Meanwhile, the looming nuclear threat of Juju Smith-Schuster and Adoree’ Jackson could blow up Stanford’s bend-but-don’t-break style of defense at any instant. However, Stanford’s offense looks equipped to match Southern Cal blow for blow behind an absurdly efficient Kevin Hogan and the reemergence of his favorite targets, Austin Hooper and Devon Cajuste, who made the difference in this matchup back in September. Behind a big day from Hogan and a record breaking performance from Christian McCaffrey, Stanford rallies from an early deficit and holds on at the end to claim its third Pac-12 title in four seasons.

Do-Hyoung Park: USC 42, Stanford 21

HOW AM I THE ONLY PERSON NOT PICKING STANFORD IN THIS GAME? My god, people. And I’m usually the crazy optimist, too. Here’s the deal: Teams with physical fronts have been running roughshod over the Cardinal over the last few weeks. This defensive line is tired. USC has a very physical front and a supremely talented running back in Ronald Jones. Opposing No. 1 receivers have been racking up the yards against Stanford’s injured secondary. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Darreus Rogers and Steven Mitchell, Jr. are fantastic receivers. Stanford’s offensive line has gotten pretty bad push against the last two defensive fronts that it has played against (Cal and Notre Dame), and even though USC is injured at linebacker, the Trojans have more than enough talent to make up for a few injuries with their tremendous recruiting.

This game is going to be a back-and-forth affair, but ultimately, USC’s ridiculous big-play potential and newfound reliance on the power run game will prove to wear Stanford’s defense down, while the Stanford offense will be stopped just enough times, especially if the Trojans get good push on their defensive line, to put this game out of reach by the time the fourth quarter starts. I don’t want to believe it as much as you guys, but I just have a really, really, really bad feeling about this game. Stanford heads to the Holiday Bowl.

Winston Shi: Stanford 38, USC 37

Red zone, red zone, red zone. That’s what this game is going to come down to. Offenses thrive when they have space, and the exact opposite happens when defenses are backed up inside their own 20. Can Stanford continue to weather its overall defensive troubles by holding strong in Stanford territory?

Stanford did very well against Cal and Notre Dame by holding its rivals’ offenses to field goals in the red zone. Now, I give props to Stanford for what it did in the red zone against Cal: Cal scores touchdowns inside the 20 at a 65 percent clip. But Sonny Dykes also made many questionable decisions to kick on fourth-and-short against Stanford. And Notre Dame’s had problems winning in the red zone all season — they’re only a 56-percent team. Stopping USC will be harder.

USC’s red zone touchdown percentage is a sparkling 68 percent. The Trojans will be going up against what seems like an immovable object — Stanford’s defense only gives up red zone touchdowns a mind-numbing 44 percent of the time, a figure that’s likely unsustainable. I don’t know whether Stanford will be able to keep USC from getting into the end zone in the first place, but when the Trojans do get inside the 20, Stanford had better be able to hold them from there.

Oh, and the score? The game’s a coin flip. But I’m not picking against Stanford. Not when this is the last Stanford-USC game I will ever cover for The Daily. I don’t normally do sentimentality. But this one’s for all the Stanford teams that could never beat USC. How many seniors on the Stanford football team have the chance to go out with a winning record against the University of Southern California? The first Stanford loss I ever attended in person was against USC and I hope Stanford never loses to USC again. Certainly not on Saturday night.

Andrew Mather: Stanford 45, USC 34

This game, like almost every installment of this rivalry, is quite difficult to get a handle on. As much as I criticized the Trojans at the beginning of this season for being an incomplete team (most of which, I might add, turned out to be quite well-merited), I’ve been impressed with how well they handled the difficult circumstances they faced and still managed to look like the clear champions of the Pac-12 South. Furthermore, I think the Trojans have finally found a good coach in Clay Helton, and I have no doubt that they will continue to improve under him in the coming seasons and eventually deliver in the way their fans expect.

This game, however, isn’t about how future years will play out. This game is about which team is better right now. From what I’ve seen, that answer is still the Cardinal. The bottom line is that –Stanford is just playing too well to allow the Trojans a serious shot at the upset this weekend. Just watch the team’s game-winning drive against Notre Dame last weekend – everyone thought the game was over when the Irish took the lead with 30 seconds remaining, but Stanford’s players simply refused to lose. One Cardinal player after another stepped up, and somehow the team walked away with the victory.

I haven’t been David Shaw’s number one fan this year, but I think his remarks before the September Stanford-USC matchup perfectly encapsulate the Cardinal’s advantage. Before kickoff, Shaw made every player who had won two Pac-12 Championships stand, driving home the point that, regardless of Stanford’s low-ranking at the time, the team knows how to take care of business in big games. Though the Trojans and the Cardinal have effectively flipped positions since then, I think the basic point still holds: USC deserves the chance it’s been given, but Stanford has the experience, the will power and the wherewithal to come away with a solid victory. Ultimately, I’ll be surprised if the Cardinal don’t let the Trojans know it.

The fax machine in the Athletic Department offices roared at the outset of what had already promised to be an auspicious National Signing Day — and then it never stopped. When the dust finally settled and the last of the paperwork from every corner of the nation trickled in, the Cardinal had secured the fifth-best recruiting class in the nation and, in particular, one of the top offensive line hauls of all time, as nearly a ton of front line talent pledged its allegiance to the Tunnel Workers’ Union.

On Feb. 1, 2012, Stanford announced with authority that its physical brand of football was here to stay, but as the old saying goes, they don’t hand out trophies on Signing Day. While the seeds of Stanford’s 2015 conference-best juggernaut of an offense were planted on that day, the roots of the Cardinal’s present-day success smashing opponents at the line of scrimmage sprung from something that the screeches of that fax machine could never hope to capture: the deepest — and most violent — of friendships.

Standing at 6-foot-5, 321 pounds and 6-foot-7, 301 pounds, respectively, former five-star (according to Scout.com) recruits Joshua Garnett and Kyle Murphy joined five other Stanford linemen — Andrus Peat, Graham Shuler, Johnny Caspers, Nick Davidson and Brandon Fanaika — in forming this imposing Signing Day jackpot.

However, to hear it from Stanford’s players and coaches, it’s unclear if the Cardinal brought in six or seven commits on that day.

Garnett and Murphy, the Cardinal’s current starting left guard and left tackle, respectively, and roommates for the past three years, have, by all accounts, morphed into a single entity.

“They’re two peas in a pod,” remarked Shuler, the starting center alongside Murphy and Garnett. “We joke around that we’ve got a married couple on the offensive line.”

“Personality-wise, they are one soul,” noted offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Mike Bloomgren. “We joke all the time that they don’t need to make calls at the line because they can just use ESP.”

Garnett, for his part, is well-aware of the locker-room punchline.

“A lot of people make fun of me and Kyle given that we’re always together like we’re connected at the hip.”

But no inseparable duo is complete without an appropriate nickname, and Garnett and Murphy have that box checked and double-checked. The pair, which comprises arguably the most formidable left side of an offensive line in the nation, has been christened the “Bash Bros,” a clear homage to its reputation for decimating defensive fronts, though its origins may be less well-known.

“I hope they didn’t give themselves that moniker,” Bloomgren chuckled.

To their position coach’s relief, the Bash Bros label did not originate with Garnett or Murphy, but from athletic trainer Lee Martin, who coined the phrase that has slowly taken on a life of its own.

Garnett still recalls that fateful day in the training room with Martin.

“One day we came down to tape…and [Martin] goes, ‘Oh look, the Bash Bros are at it again,’ when we walked in together. We kind of just stuck with it.”

“It’s a humbling nickname,” Murphy added. “We both like to come off the ball and get in dudes a little bit, so this must mean we’re doing something right.”

Many would argue that the pair has done more than just something right this season. Behind Kevin Hogan and his 44 straight starts, the Bash Bros rank second with 27 each and have joined Hogan as offensive captains. The duo has led the resurgence of an offensive line that has paved the way for a rushing attack that ranks 20th in the nation at 222 yards per game while also keeping Hogan’s jersey clean, allowing less than a sack per game in the Cardinal’s last three outings.

Moreover, the individual accolades are beginning to roll in by the handful. Garnett, who unofficially leads the team in pancake blocks, has been named one of three finalists for the Outland Trophy, awarded to the nation’s most outstanding lineman on either side of the ball. Murphy, who took over at left tackle following the departure of Peat to the NFL, earned a spot on the Outland and Rotary Lombardi Award watch lists and, like Garnett, will likely receive serious consideration for All-America honors.

“What makes them so special is the way they finish and how violent they play,” Bloomgren said. “When they get the opportunity to work some double teams and they go 2-for-2 with both a defensive lineman and a linebacker on the ground, I bet people are like, ‘That’s not really what I want to be up against.’

“From what I’ve seen, they’re the best guard-tackle combo [in the nation].”

Despite the bushels of awards and praise launched their way, Murphy and Garnett have remained as steady and focused (and violent) as ever.

“That’s obviously our goal and our mindset when we come out here,” Murphy said. “We want to be the two baddest dudes out here. We like to play with that confidence and swagger. We kind of think that for our offense to perform at the highest level possible we have to be at our best. We put that pressure on ourselves…to get the job done.”

***

Out of the millions of high-schoolers who played football between 2002 and 2010, only 262 earned the coveted five-star recruiting rating from Rivals.com, yet fifty-five percent — more than half — of those 262 five-stars never heard their names called in the NFL draft.

On the other hand, Garnett and Murphy, two five-star recruits in their own right, look poised to play on Sundays after they hang up their cardinal and white jerseys at the end of the season.

While they certainly arrived on The Farm with prodigious talent and minutes upon minutes of high school highlight reels, their current success as top-tier professional prospects and captains of the 2015 squad was far from predestined. Shaw has observed that the Bash Bros have “grown tremendously [as leaders] over the past three and a half years,” a development that has a lot to do with how their friendship has molded each of them.

Coming into Stanford, it may not have been obvious that Murphy, a quiet, unassuming SoCal kid from San Clemente and Garnett, the loud, charismatic Puyallup, Washington native, would form a special bond. But, in turn, they have each rubbed off on each other over the years and, in the eyes of Bloomgren, have converged towards a singular personality — that of a wise, respect-demanding leader.

“I’ve had the opportunity to know these kids since they were 17-year-old kids in high school,” Bloomgren said, “and really have watched them grow tremendously and really come towards each other.”

“Kyle was very unassuming and not very talkative in high school whereas Josh was just the opposite — he was always kind of the life of the party…Now you see Josh be more reserved depending on the context and the situation and Kyle has the ability to talk and get loud when he needs to now.”

“Kyle’s not a big smack-talker but when game time comes, just to see that you see that switch in him, you’re like, ‘I don’t recognize this guy,’” Garnett added. “And he just gets real nasty and I think that’s awesome to see as his friend who lives with him. On game day, you get to see that different side of him.”

Of course, leadership is only a small piece of the puzzle, but the Bash Bros’ on-field improvements have matched their mental development every step of the way. Both credit their current successes to the opportunity to see the field as true freshmen in the role of extra linemen in the jumbo and ogre packages.

“It was a long time ago but seems like yesterday,” Murphy reminisced. “It was great to get that experience in tight games against USC and Notre Dame and get that experience in pressure situations even if it’s in a minimal role of 10-15 plays. It gets you ready to be a starter unfazed. Last year in the tight games…even though it was my first starting, I had that experience to lean on and could just focus on playing football.”

In his freshman and sophomore years, Murphy frequently lined up as a tight end in jumbo formations and, in just the third game of his career, had a ball thrown his way. Murphy also lined up as a decoy receiver this season against the Huskies, though he admits that his opportunities to make a play in the passing game are “probably past me.”

Garnett, meanwhile, saw a lot of action as a fullback in heavy set formations where he got his feet wet on the biggest of stages after “getting to hit Manti Te’o head up” as a true freshman.

***

Four years after seeing their first snaps, the Bash Bros have passed on their tackle-eligible 98 and 94 jerseys onto the next generation of young Tunnel Workers and have now wear their standard 51 and 78 jerseys full-time. With their Stanford careers soon to come to a close, they hope to go out with another Pac-12 championship while managing to prepare for the next chapter of their lives.

Murphy, who studies science, technology and society, hopes to one day enter the finance and business world, while Garnett is a pre-med human biology major taking a full course load this quarter while serving up pancakes on Saturday.

Off the field, Garnett also served as president of his freshman dorm, Twain, and continues to keep in touch with many of his old friends from freshman year. Despite being an old married couple, the Bash Bros can indeed detach from the hip when necessary.

“It’s been great to have friends outside of football,” Garnett said. “You get annoyed hanging out with these guys 24/7. I love Kyle but we can’t be around each other too much. We talk too much smack about FIFA.”

Come Saturday, though, the only recipients of Murphy and Garnett’s smack will be the USC Trojans lined up against them — a smack of the most literal and painful variety. As they team up on the left side for one of the last times, it will be the culmination of a long journey, the road from former top recruits to college stars who built a formidable front line — and an inseparable friendship — in the process.

At the home of intellectual brutality, the Bash Bros are the gatekeepers and, on Saturday night, they have a chance to cap off their careers the way it started: with a Pac-12 Championship.

Contact Vihan Lakshman at vihan ‘at’ stanford.edu.

Sandip Srinivas: In their respective divisions, Kevin Hogan and Cody Kessler are the quarterbacks with the highest number of career starts. These are two quarterbacks that have, to a certain degree, become the faces of this conference over the last few years. So yeah, to me, this matchup seems like a pretty big deal.

David Shaw has been talking all year about how much Kevin Hogan’s leadership has meant to Stanford, and his performance for the ages against Notre Dame only solidified that. But Kessler has been invaluable in his own regard: I for one have been really surprised by how USC has played following the Sarkisian fallout, and while his stat line might not totally convey it, Kessler seems like a big part of the reason why. USC’s chance to spoil Stanford’s playoff bid rests on Kessler, especially with Stanford’s depleted secondary, and though the Trojans might not prevail, Kessler will certainly be the one to give them a shot.

Do-Hyoung Park: A major part of why Stanford was able to storm the Coliseum in September and dispatch the then-No. 6 Trojans was because Kevin Hogan was able to outduel Cody Kessler in a battle of quarterbacks. But that’s not what Saturday’s game will become. With USC down two of its better linebackers in Cameron Smith and Lamar Dawson, the Cardinal are poised for a more successful day on the ground, and I’d be surprised if Stanford’s offense doesn’t run through Christian McCaffrey. And though Cody Kessler has had a few shaky weeks, Stanford will still be playing without Ronnie Harris, and USC might be the team most able to take advantage of weak opposing secondaries.

All that’s to say that it’s impossible to say who will have the “better night” because they’re going to be asked to do two completely different things: Kessler will almost certainly have a better statistical night because USC will throw the ball far more than Stanford will, even if it is getting back to its power run identity. Hogan will almost certainly be more efficient on his, like, 10 pass attempts. So what I’m saying is that this is a dumb question and I refuse to give a straight answer because it’s impossible to compare the two on an equivalent scale. Both should have pretty good days, though.

Neel Ramachandran: I tend to agree with Do here — it’s hard to compare the two quarterbacks, because they play in entirely different systems. On the season, Kessler has over 100 more pass attempts and almost nine attempts more per game than Hogan. USC possesses weapons in the passing game of the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster, whose 1,302 receiving yards rank him among the nation’s best. Meanwhile, Stanford’s bread-and-butter is the run, which makes sense, given the fact that it has one of the best offensive lines and running backs in the country.

In my mind, Kessler will undoubtedly have the better night statistically — he throws the ball more, and has a great receiving core that matches up favorably against Stanford’s banged-up secondary. Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer had no trouble moving the ball through the air when the Fighting Irish needed to last week, and Kessler, a more talented passer than Kizer, will do the same. While I think Kessler will have the “better” night, that doesn’t necessarily indicate that he means more to his team — like Sandip said, Hogan has proved time and again that his leadership is invaluable, and his command of the offense will be sorely missed next season.

Contact Sandip Srinivas at sandips ‘at’ stanford.edu, Do-Hyoung Park at dhpark ‘at’ stanford.edu and Neel Ramachandran at neelr ‘at’ stanford.edu.

Goodness gracious, what a finish. Thirty seconds and three timeouts, with Stanford stuck on its own 27-yard-line? No problem.

The thing about wins like these is that when all is said and done, you can easily point to the reasons why Stanford defied the odds to beat then-No. 4 Notre Dame on Saturday. Notre Dame hadn’t really stopped Stanford all night. A blitz-happy Fighting Irish defense was always getting close to Kevin Hogan, but Hogan was not rattled. Notre Dame’s secondary, depleted by injuries, was particularly weak down the middle – and Devon Cajuste had set the Irish on fire the entire game. Also, the prevent defense isn’t really a great play when you stand to lose with a field goal. Was it really that inconceivable that Stanford could connect on a couple long throws against soft zone coverage?

But even though hindsight is 20/20, that insight doesn’t change the fact that most people – myself included – thought the Fighting Irish were going to win the game. Well done, Stanford.

***

Let’s take a look at the 27-yard completion to Cajuste that got Stanford within field goal range. One thing I don’t think we could have predicted was that ND defensive coordinator Brian Van Gorder was going to do utterly un-BVG things with the game on the line. Brian Van Gorder blitzes. It’s what you pay him to do.

So why was Van Gorder running a prevent defense on Notre Dame’s last stand? The prevent defense is terrible. Moreover, it’s a passive defense, which is not very Brian Van Gorder. Last year Van Gorder stopped Hogan cold on Stanford’s last-ditch drive with a daring blitz. This year Van Gorder blitzed and blitzed…until the game was on the line. (Check out the video here.)

Notre Dame is running what’s basically a 2-5 zone coverage, just 10-15 yards further back than usual. It rushed three, kept one linebacker shallow to stop QB scrambles and crossed its fingers that Kevin Hogan would do something stupid.

First off, let’s look at the players that opened things up for Cajuste (X) down the middle. McCaffrey (R) doesn’t do very much on this play (he just checks for a blitz and releases to the flat), but he distorts Notre Dame’s defense right at the start. Notre Dame drops linebackers Jaylon Smith (S) and Joe Schmidt (M) deep to cover Austin Hooper (Y), first because Hogan is well known for his chemistry with Hooper, and second because if Stanford ran an RB screen for McCaffrey on the left, Stanford would pick up about 15 yards easily unless ND devoted that extra man to Hooper. But when you have four guys around the pocket and two safeties deep, and then put two defenders on Hooper, there’s only three men on the other three receivers. And it’s a little difficult to stop Cajuste one-on-one when he’s got a full head of steam.

Cajuste’s route is dictated by the defense: He runs up the field against Cover 2 (a middle-of-the-field-open “MOFO” read) and heads upfield against Cover 1 or Cover 3 (middle-of-the-field-closed/“MOFC”). The route name is instructive. It’s formally called a seam route. Some West Coast offense coaches just call it “win.” Win your matchup and run towards space. After the game, Cajuste told me that all he was thinking about during the play was how he could “bend the route” – the middle of the field was open, so that’s where he ran.

After the snap, no deep pass is easy, but this one was easier than most. Van Gorder clearly does not trust nickelback Matthias Farley (N) and his safeties – in other words, the defensive backs that patrol the middle of the field, where Cajuste has historically done the most damage. Notre Dame is giving Cajuste massive cushions even before the play begins. And in the prevent, ND’s backfield is so spread-out that if Hooper could hold ND’s linebackers 10 yards deep on his dig route, Cajuste is going to get open behind them. ND is also setting up the defense so far down the field that Cajuste can hit top speed.

Free safety Max Redfield (F/S) focuses on the route on the left sideline. Strong safety Elijah Shumate ($) messes up in coverage; since Farley is playing with outside leverage and funneling Cajuste inwards, Shumate needs to aggressively cover Cajuste on the inside, and doesn’t. For his own part, Farley gives Cajuste too much space and Cajuste adjusts by breaking inwards a little earlier than Farley expects.

“We got to close down inside-out on that seam route,” Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly admitted after the game. “I thought we probably played it a little bit too much outside-in, worried about backing up. We got to be more aggressive to a seam route.”

With space, Hogan and Cajuste made the play look easy. “I didn’t even see the ball coming,” Cajuste explained. That’s chemistry right there – that’s the legacy of five years of practice for the Hogan-Cajuste duo. Hogan hit Cajuste in stride 14 yards deep and Cajuste dragged Notre Dame defenders down the field for another 13. Two plays later, Conrad Ukropina sank Notre Dame’s national championship hopes.

All credit to the Fighting Irish. They battled through a lot of adversity and somehow got to No. 4 in the country. They were a great team, with a dominating offense and (for most of the season) a very solid defense. Notre Dame huffed, and puffed, and when it was about to blow the house down it decided to run the prevent defense.

Both teams deserved to win the game. But only one team could, and it ended up being the one that wasn’t giving Devon Cajuste massive holes in zone coverage.

***

Some points on David Shaw’s decisions at the end of the game.

During the game, I’ll admit that I was utterly shocked by – if not apoplectic towards – Shaw’s decision to hoard his timeouts on Notre Dame’s clock-killing final drive. Shaw said that the coaches talked about what to do with the TOs, and decided that they were going to ride or die with the defense. Somehow Stanford got away with it.

It became increasingly clear with hindsight that:

1) Even if Shaw was rightly confident in Stanford’s red zone defense, not calling timeouts was excessively risky. To be fair, Stanford’s red-zone TD allowed percentage is 44 percent, which is otherworldly. And ND has had red-zone problems all season long. But that TD percentage is artificially depressed by the fact that most teams are operating on three downs on offense. For Notre Dame, it was TD or bust, and Brian Kelly was working with four downs. Moreover, it was clear that Notre Dame was not going to be limited by the clock – it had two timeouts left on its final drive. Notre Dame was methodical on offense even in the final minute of the game. Stanford was not going to win by forcing Notre Dame into a hurried, last-ditch prayer to the end zone. The Irish have a fantastically well-drilled offense – and they are going to be downright terrifying next season.

2) To be fair to Shaw, calling timeouts on defense would have imposed a very real opportunity cost on the offense. Shaw wanted to save timeouts in order to throw posts and seams into the middle of the field, because that was where the big-play opportunities were – and first downs down the middle like Cajuste’s win route in crunch time don’t stop the clock for very long. Moreover, throwing deep down the middle is easier than throwing deep down the sideline. It’s fair to say that Shaw’s decision-making, though perplexing, made some sense. That doesn’t mean that Shaw made the right decisions, but these decisions weren’t baseless either.

If you want to complain about a coaching decision, I’d say that Shaw’s decision to run Christian McCaffrey up the middle on Stanford’s penultimate play was the real shocker. McCaffrey did a great job on Saturday of grinding out yardage, even when the yards weren’t blocked for him, but running up the middle is rarely a recipe for a solid gain. Even Power, Stanford’s signature play, is off-tackle. Just because Ukropina converted a 45-yarder doesn’t mean that his odds of success wouldn’t have been much higher if he had been kicking a 35-yarder instead.

But I don’t know who made the call on that play. It might not have been Shaw. The decision is more complicated than you might expect.

The best way for Stanford to pick up yardage would likely have been speed out routes, and at the very least, Stanford could have taken more time to gauge how much of a cushion Notre Dame was giving Stanford’s wideouts on the outside. But completing out routes would have forced Ukropina to kick the ball from a hash mark. Running the ball up the middle was the only way to guarantee that Stanford would center the field goal attempt. And if the kicker wants the ball in the center, he gets the ball in the center. I’d have preferred a slant route if Stanford was going to center the ball. But all in all, if Stanford handles kickers like many football teams, the decision to center the ball or go for extra yardage would ultimately have been Ukropina’s to make.

Contact Winston Shi at wshi94 ‘at’ stanford.edu.

Andrus Peat (center) made his first carer start for the New Orleans Saints in the team’s 24-6 loss to Houston over the weekend. Peat played as left guard instead of his usual position of tackle. (DAVID BERNAL/isiphotos.com)

New Orleans Saints first-round draft pick Andrus Peat made his first career start and played all 58 snaps in the Saints’ 24-6 loss to Houston. Peat played at left guard rather than tackle, a shift away from the Saints’ original vision for the rookie. Buffalo Bills rookie linebacker A.J. Tarpley ’15 also saw increased action as he recorded his first career sack in the team’s 30-22 defeat at the hands of Kansas City.

Moving to Seattle, it was a strong week for Stanford football in the Pacific Northwest.

Although his status was questionable prior to the game due to an ankle injury he sustained last week, Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin ’11 had a career day, leading the team with a career-high 3 touchdowns while racking up a career-best 145 receiving yards on 6 receptions.

On defense, cornerback Richard Sherman ’10 nabbed his first interception of the season on a pass intended for Antonio Brown and returned it for 26 yards. He also recorded 5 combined tackles and 2 passes defended in the team’s 39-30 win over the Steelers. As in previous weeks, Sherman nearly neutralized Brown’s contribution to the offense, limiting him to 6 receptions on 12 targets for a mere 51 yards.

Despite the team’s losing record (4-7), Miami Dolphins safety Michael Thomas ’12 continued to build on a strong defensive season, pacing his team with a career-high 10 combined tackles. In Cincinnati’s 31-7 rout of the St. Louis Rams, undrafted Bengals tight end Ryan Hewitt ’14 recorded 2 receptions for a career-high 29 yards.

On a more sour note, injuries continue to plague Cardinal alumni in the NFL. Four former Stanford players are currently on injured reserve. Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck ’12 is week-to-week with a lacerated kidney, Philadelphia tight end Zach Ertz ’13 was out this week with a concussion, Green Bay receiver Ty Montgomery ’14 remained inactive after a Week 6 ankle sprain and Baldwin played through an ankle injury.

Although the Colts have won their last three games without Luck and defensive tackle Henry Anderson ’15 (placed on season-ending IR in Week 9), other Colts Stanford grads have also seen limited playing time. Rookie defensive tackle David Parry ’15 recorded 1 assisted tackle, and tight end Coby Fleener ’12 saw 3 targets for 27 yards. Wide receiver Griff Whalen ’12, who had been gaining increased touches with Luck at the helm, was never targeted.

With Luck expected to return before the end of the season, there is a chance for increased production among former Cardinal in the upcoming weeks. As the playoffs approach, many Stanford alumni across the NFL will seek to return from injury and increase their consistency to help their teams on the way to the postseason. 

Contact Olivia Hummer  at ohummer ‘at’ stanford.edu. 

Well, except for the part where they lost to Stanford… and then to Washington… and then twice more for good measure, losing their head coach somewhere along the line as well. It wouldn’t be USC football without all of the requisite drama and baggage that came along with it, but to their credit, this time the Trojans finished the season 5-0 against their opponents in the Pac-12 South despite all of the distractions and media cacophony that tagged along for the ride.

This year’s edition of the “University of Spoiled Children” media circus was absolutely eye-opening and entertaining for Pat Haden’s continued indecision and unpopularity, sure, but to me, it felt completely different from the analogous situation two years ago (ft. Lane Kiffin), and unfortunately, this time, I think that the Trojans might have come out of the drama all the better for it.

In 2013, Ed Orgeron’s success down the stretch after he replaced the stiff, aloof Kiffinator was due in large part to the spirit that he revitalized the team with using his players-first mentality and his rustic Southern charm, and in many ways, this year’s situation with the player-favorite Clay Helton has been incredibly analogous. At least from an outside perspective, it really looks like USC’s players have their swagger and their identity back — I hate to deal with intangibles like that, but they absolutely seem to have an added bounce in their step.

That’s due in large part to what Helton has done for the Trojans that Orgeron did not two years ago: While Orgeron just righted the ship, Helton has already begun to steer the Trojan cruiser in his own direction by bringing USC’s old, smashmouth, power football identity back to great success.

And that’s why you should absolutely be terrified of USC for this Saturday’s game: They’re playing with nothing to lose, and for a coach that they love that is finally utilizing his overwhelming talent in an advantageous manner to great success. This is a very, very different USC team from the one that Stanford beat up at the Coliseum two months ago.

Particularly in last week’s blowout of crosstown rival UCLA, the Trojans ran their offense through stud running back Ronald Jones, and if they commit to using their monstrous behemoths on the offensive line to maul Stanford’s front seven instead of trying to win the game with an inconsistent Cody Kessler on Saturday, I’m not sure Stanford’s battered front seven can hold up to the full force of angry Trojan man-child linemen tunneling a path for their stud running back.

USC’s offensive line has suffered some key injuries over the last few weeks, but the Trojans have had consistently elite recruiting to the point where, like Notre Dame, they can essentially be plug-and-play. Given Stanford’s exhaustion on the defensive line, especially after huge running games by Oregon and Notre Dame, if the Trojans try to run instead of forcing the issue with Kessler, the Cardinal could be running on fumes sooner rather than later.

And even if the Cardinal keep USC’s running game in check, the Trojans still have an Adoree’ Jackson and a terrifying JuJu Smith-Schuster, even when injured, to take advantage of Stanford’s particularly porous bend-but-don’t-break secondary, especially if Alijah Holder and Ronnie Harris aren’t back by Saturday.

That should scare you.

It’s always absurdly difficult to beat the same team twice in one season (except UCLA, for reasons that remain mysterious to me but I’ll accept all the same), particularly with USC, which has enough superstar talent to keep things interesting even when the team schematically isn’t playing up to its standard.

The players are on the highest of emotional highs right now after hiring the coach that they’ve played their hearts out for over the last few weeks, and they’re going to be out for blood against the team that ousted them from the playoff conversation so unceremoniously that week in September.

Stanford hasn’t been playing its best football over the last few weeks, especially on defense, and Notre Dame almost made the Cardinal pay dearly for it. The Ducks did. USC arguably has more talent than either of those teams, and this isn’t a good matchup on paper for the Cardinal.

The last time this happened, Stanford had its national title hopes derailed by USC in 2013. The stars seem to be aligning again now, two years later.

The media narrative would be crazy if, at the end, the Trojans ended up winning the Pac-12 anyway. Let’s derail the hype train before it begins — I know you wouldn’t be able to stand months of offseason “ARE THE TROJANS BACK??!?!?” talk.

Give Do-Hyoung Park suggestions for how to get over a (potential) loss to USC at dhpark ‘at’ stanford.edu.

But even in their last ever 30 seconds playing in front of their home crowd, there was no sense of desperation or distress in that final huddle — only excitement and confidence.

“Where else would you rather be right now? This is the best moment ever,” said fifth-year senior wide receiver Devon Cajuste about the conversation in the huddle. “We were all excited. We weren’t worried.”

And to cap a send-off drive for the ages, Cajuste and classmate Kevin Hogan connected one last time on a career night for both seniors with a 27-yard completion up the seam in their final act at Stanford Stadium to set up a game-winning field goal attempt.

Conrad Ukropina’s kick from 45 yards perfectly split the uprights as time expired, and mayhem ensued as Stanford’s players and fans all stormed the field to celebrate a dramatic 38-36 victory for No. 13 Stanford (10-2, 8-1 Pac-12) over No. 4 Notre Dame (10-2) in one crowning triumph for Stanford Football’s class of 2016 on a dramatic Senior Night.

Senior kicker Conrad Ukropina (above) nailed a no-doubter from 45 yards as time expired to make sure that Stanford’s seniors wouldn’t walk off the field for the final time with the bitter taste of defeat in their mouths. (Stanford Athletics)

“For our fans to be able to come out on the field and celebrate with us at the end of the game was awesome,” Hogan said. “Perfect way to finish the season.”

Before all of his kicks, Ukropina likes to say a few words to his holder, senior safety Dallas Lloyd.

This time, it was pretty simple.

“Shoot, man. Might as well make it.”

Ukropina’s ensuing no-doubter made sure that Stanford’s seniors didn’t walk out the tunnel for the final time with the bitter taste of defeat in their mouths and made sure that Stanford didn’t put to waste titanic efforts from Hogan and Cajuste that were still barely enough to hold back an injured yet supremely talented Notre Dame squad.

Hogan, the Pac-12’s leader in passing efficiency and the winningest quarterback in Stanford history, had perhaps the best start of his storied career, going 17-of-21 for 269 yards, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. On the other end of his passes, Cajuste caught five passes for a career-high 125 yards and a touchdown.

Fifth-year senior quarterback Kevin Hogan (above) completed 17 of his 21 passes for 269 yards and 4 touchdowns against the team that he and his late father fervently supported growing up. Hogan notched his 34th win as a starter, the best mark in program history. (SAM GIRVIN/The Stanford Daily)

“I couldn’t have pictured it going any better,” Hogan said. “It’s awesome to just kind of put it all together. It’s a huge game for me; it meant a lot.”

“It’s kind of a blur right now,” Cajuste added. “I had so much fun tonight playing with my team… I’m still smiling from it.”

In a barn-burner of a game that featured 955 yards of combined offense and nine lead changes, Stanford needed every bit of the career-best efforts from both Hogan and Cajuste to keep up with the Irish on a night when Stanford’s offensive line and sophomore Christian McCaffrey couldn’t get much going on the ground against a stout Notre Dame front seven.

McCaffrey was held to 3.48 yards per rush — his worst mark since the UCF game — and failed to top 100 rushing yards for the first time in 10 games.

“They have an unbelievable defense and some unbelievable players and when they’re stacking the box it makes it’s tough to run,” he said.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s playmakers were popping off big plays at an alarming rate: The Irish scored three times on plays of longer than 60 yards and had seven offensive plays of longer than 15 yards on Stanford’s normally-stout bend-but-don’t-break defense.

Notre Dame was able to do that in part because it was winning at the line of scrimmage and was able to effectively run the ball at will, averaging 8.5 yards per carry as it rushed 35 times for 299 yards. Running back Josh Adams (168 yards) and quarterback DeShone Kizer (128 yards) became the first pair all season to rush for over 100 yards on Stanford in the same game.

Senior inside linebacker Blake Martinez described the Irish offensive line as the best he’s faced all season.

“They’re exactly like our offensive line,” he said. “They’re a physical group, and you have to be able to play perfectly on every single play or they’re going to offensively outmaneuver you.”

When they weren’t running the ball down Stanford’s throats, the Irish were also burning Stanford through the air with a 234-yard passing day from Kizer and six catches for 136 yards by standout wide receiver Will Fuller.

But the difference in the game was that Notre Dame couldn’t convert when it needed to most, and Stanford did: The Irish had to settle for field goals on their first three red-zone trips, while Stanford scored touchdowns on all five of its own forays into the red zone.

A first-quarter touchdown pass to Remound Wright on a play-fake from the heavy set was followed by a fade touchdown to Cajuste and a perimeter touchdown pass to senior Michael Rector, who broke a tackle before sprinting into the end zone. A Wright 1-yard run and a play-fake reverse-field pass to junior Austin Hooper accounted for the remainder of the scoring.

Fifth-year senior wide receiver Devon Cajuste (left) had a field day matched up against an injured Notre Dame secondary, notching five catches for a career-high 125 yards and a touchdown. He also caught the 27-yard pass that set up the game-winning field goal. (SAM GIRVIN/The Stanford Daily)

And even when the offense stalled late in the game, the defense, which had one of its roughest outings of the year, bailed the Cardinal out with some huge stops.

“Right before the fourth quarter happened, I brought our defense together,” Martinez said. “I told them, ‘Hey, this is our time, this is where we need to just nut up, basically, and say we’re not going to let anything get past us.’ We’re going to make those stops for our offense. They’ve been doing it for us the whole game and it’s time for to us make that stop and contribute in this game.”

The only time Notre Dame scored a touchdown in the red zone was on its final drive with 30 seconds remaining in the game, when Kizer appeared to be down short of the goal line on a quarterback keeper but the play was ruled a touchdown anyway, which set the stage for the late heroics from Hogan, Cajuste and Ukropina.

For his efforts on an emotional Senior Night against the team he supported with his late father growing up, Hogan was awarded the game ball and got a heartfelt and emotional congratulations from head coach David Shaw after the game was over.

But in classic Hogan fashion, he wasn’t too caught up in the moment — no matter how big. Instead, even as his storied career draws to a close, he’s still forever looking ahead at the next task that lies ahead.

“Thanks, coach,” he said. “But we’ve got to play USC next week.”

Contact Do-Hyoung Park at dhpark ‘at’ stanford.edu.

The Legends Trophy came down to a Conrad Ukropina 45-yard field goal attempt. The senior kicker, who hadn’t even attempted a field goal all night, calmly lined up and kicked a beauty through the uprights to give Stanford a 38-36 win.

The No. 13 Cardinal (10-2, 8-1 Pac-12) defeated the No. 4 Fighting Irish (10-2) in one of the most exciting games at Stanford Stadium in recent memory.

It seemed over before that. Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer scored on a 2-yard run with 30 seconds remaining to put Notre Dame up 36-35, but the 30 seconds was all that Kevin Hogan needed to lead his team down the field.

For Stanford, Hogan shined in the last home game of his collegiate career. The fifth-year senior passed for 269 yards and 4 touchdowns, and he made the big passes just when Stanford needed them. The game-winning field goal was set up by a 27-yard pass to Devon Cajuste, who totaled 125 total receiving yards in the game.

Kizer led a sensational offensive effort for Notre Dame, passing for 234 yards and 1 touchdown and rushing for 128 and another score. Freshman running back Josh Adams also tore apart the Cardinal, running or 168 yards and a touchdown. The Notre Dame offense averaged 8.9 yards per play and managed to drain almost enough time off the clock to seal the win.

Almost.

Contact Sandip Srinivas at sandips ‘at’ stanford.edu.

At the pregame meal before the Cardinal hosted San Jose State on August 31, 2012, head coach David Shaw warned the then-freshman Martinez and his classmates not to be “that guy” that was going to look up into the stands and get overwhelmed by the stage as the team walked through the tunnel.

Martinez ended up being “that guy.”

“I remember walking in there and being like, ‘Oh-god-what-am-I-doing-here-we-go-I’m-going-to-be-running-down-on-kickoff-I’m-going-to-be-blocking-these-guys-on-kickoff-return,’” Martinez remembers with a chuckle.

He wasn’t the only one facing sensory overload; senior Aziz Shittu also remembers that very day — his first day wearing the Cardinal red, too.

“It was an awesome experience that you take in,” Shittu said. “Going from 1,000 people in your high school stands to 50,000, it’s a huge jump.”

Senior defensive end Aziz Shittu (above) isn’t all too worried about the emotions involved in his Last Walk this afternoon — he’s too excited about playing a tough Notre Dame team. According to Shittu, his pregame warmup music “could be a little ratchet” to honor the occasion. (DON FERIA/isiphotos.com)

For Martinez, the 25 entrances he’s made through that tunnel since that first day have only gotten easier as he’s been able to shut out his surroundings and focus exclusively on the game at hand after getting over that initial shock in his first game.

“Now you’re just amped up and you’re just, boom, focused on getting through the tunnel and getting ready to go,” he said.

Shittu, on the other hand, disagrees. He’s found that those 25 entrances have become more meaningful to him as time has passed.

“It gets more and more significant as you get older since there’s a finite amount of games you’re able to play,” he countered. “As you get older, it means more and more to run out the tunnel.”

They might disagree about their first 26 entrances to Stanford Stadium, but make no mistake: Their 27th and final journey through that tunnel this afternoon will serve as the great equalizer — each senior will get his time to shine as he runs alone through those familiar concrete walls and shares a moment with the home crowd as his name, position, hometown and major are announced in a celebration of his accomplishments.

If nostalgia hasn’t already set in for those seniors, don’t worry — it won’t take long once they find themselves in the moment.

Senior linebacker Blake Martinez (above) remembers being “that guy” in his first game at Stanford Stadium his freshman year, when he was caught up in the moment and found himself starstruck by the big stage. He didn’t think he was going to make it through Stanford. Four years later, he’s a team captain, the conference’s leading tackler and one of the most feared defenders in the nation. (JIM SHORIN/isiphotos.com)

“I think this game will definitely go back to that freshman moment,” Martinez said. “Wow. Next time I’ll be walking into this stadium I’ll be watching the game instead of actually playing.”

Even though they’ve had four or five years to prepare themselves for this moment, the reality of the Last Walk, the final entrance to Stanford Stadium and the final game at home hasn’t yet sunk in for a few of the seniors that will be celebrated tomorrow — this day has really crept up on them.

“It hasn’t really hit me yet,” Shittu said. “I’m more excited just to play Notre Dame.”

“It definitely won’t hit me until it’s here,” added fifth-year senior quarterback Kevin Hogan, who will finish his home career today as the winningest quarterback in Stanford history.

“It’s slowly creeping in. It’s kind of a good feeling. It’s an important game, and it just makes me come out here and go that much harder in practice and appreciate being out here, just knowing that the end is near.”

But others, like Martinez and fifth-year senior Devon Cajuste, have already started to feel that reality and a sense of finality in a big way, particularly after they beat Cal 35-22 last Saturday and ensured that they would never lose the Axe in their Stanford careers.

“It’s kind of sad, to be honest with you,” Cajuste said. “It was my last rivalry game and recognizing, ‘Wow, this is it. We have a chance to 5-0 against them and all of the special things that come with it.’ It was like the last time I’m going to get to do it.”

“The fact that it’s gone right now means that I’m going, ‘Dang, this is the last time I’m ever going to play Notre Dame.’”

The emotions really started to hit Martinez when he and fifth-year senior cornerback Ronnie Harris were walking out of the stadium after the Cal game and it dawned on Martinez that the path they were following was essentially the exact same path that they would be taking a week later on their last walk, but in reverse.

“Dude, this is our last one,” he said to Harris that day. “This is our last week that we have here. It’s definite this time.”

“I just kept looking back and forth and I didn’t want to think about it too much,” he added afterward. “I’ve grown so much from freshman year until now, and I came into Stanford thinking I’d never even be able to make it through.”

Martinez has been mentally prepared for his Last Walk for a long time — back in the day, Shayne Skov and A.J. Tarpley (a year later) messed with Martinez on their respective Senior Days by hanging their black “My Last Walk” shirts in Martinez’s locker and treating Martinez as if it was his last day. That said, it’s still going to be tough for Martinez to have the tables turned this year.

“I’m actually going to have it in my locker this time. I’m going to be the guy making that joke to someone else. It’s crazy.”

Fifth-year senior wide receiver Devon Cajuste (left) thought he wouldn’t be back this year and thus did what he thought was his Last Walk last year. Because of that experience, he already knows the associated emotions all too well and his “real” Last Walk this afternoon will be all the more meaningful for him. (BOB DREBIN/stanfordphoto.com)

The Last Walk and Senior Day entrance this time around will have a particularly powerful impact on Cajuste as well, because it will actually be his second time taking part in the celebrations — he did it last year because he thought there was a chance he wouldn’t be back — and thus knows all of the associated emotions all too well.

But this time, there won’t be any lingering doubts or questions in the back of his mind — this is it for him, and he’s had to deal with that sense of absolute finality all week.

“This is the end-all and be-all,” Cajuste said. “There is no leeway, there is no door, there is no ‘just-cause,’ ‘just-maybe.’”

It’s especially bittersweet for Cajuste, who calls Stanford Stadium his “second home” and still feels starstruck whenever he feels the “uplifting, challenging and competitive vibes” that pervade the stadium every time he plays a game within the familiar confines.

“I was blessed to come here at a time where I felt like it was pretty filled,” Cajuste noted.

And he’s not alone in that sentiment — despite all of the fun that outside observers poke at Stanford Stadium and at Stanford fans for what seems to be chronically low turnout and enthusiasm, the other seniors agree that they’ve been nothing but humbled by their fans and proud of the support that their efforts have garnered week in and week out, which is something they’ll remember and miss for some time to come.

Fifth-year senior quarterback Kevin Hogan says that he won’t feel the emotions of his Senior Day until he’s actually in the moment. When he wraps up a storied four-year starting career at home tonight, he’ll go down as the winningest quarterback in Stanford history and the leader that helped bring the Cardinal three Pac-12 North championships and a Rose Bowl victory. (DON FERIA/isiphotos.com)

“I know we’re not a big school and our students can’t fill up the whole stadium, but seeing the whole Red Zone standing up and cheering the whole time, it’s awesome,” Hogan said. “It makes us feel proud of our school seeing that we have the support.”

“It’s very motivational,” Cajuste added. “I had those standards and the fact that they have been met, if not exceeded, I just find it very special.”

Though today will mark the culmination of one of the most accomplished senior classes in the history of Stanford football, the players are also making sure not to lose sight of the fact that despite the seeming finality of this afternoon’s game, the journey’s not yet over — the toughest challenges still lay ahead, and they can’t let emotions get in the way.

But they’re not trying to bottle up that emotion — if they can help it, they’re going to make darn sure that those feelings push them to play their finest game tonight and go out with one more statement win for the ages.

“You still just have to think it’s just a normal week with a game,” Martinez said, “but you always put it in the back of your mind where you’ve got to go out with a bang and have as much fun as possible in that last game.”

Contact Do-Hyoung Park at dhpark ‘at’ stanford.edu.

Stanford’s seniors (without eligibility remaining):

Joshua Garnett (Sr., OG, Puyallup, Wash.)
Blake Martinez (Sr., ILB, Tucson, Ariz.)
Reed Miller (Sr., LS, Encinitas, Calif.)
Kyle Murphy (Sr., OT, San Clemente, Calif.)
Aziz Shittu (Sr., DE, Atwater, Calif.)
Kodi Whitfield (Sr., SS, Los Angeles, Calif.)
Kevin Anderson (5Sr., OLB, Palo Alto, Calif.)
Brendon Austin (5Sr., OG, Parker, Colo.)
Devon Cajuste (5Sr., WR, Seaford, NY)
Ronnie Harris (5Sr., CB, Atlanta, GA)
Kevin Hogan (5Sr., QB, McLean, VA)
Ra’Chard Pippens (5Sr., CB, McDonough, GA)
Torsten Rotto (5Sr., DE, Woodbury, Minn.)
Brennan Scarlett (5Sr., DE, Portland, Ore.)
Rollins Stallworth (5Sr., WR, Reno, Nev.)
Remound Wright (5Sr., RB, Fort Wayne, Ind.)

Stanford’s seniors (with eligibility remaining):

Johnny Caspers (Sr., OG, Glen Ellyn, Ill.)
Conner Crane (Sr., WR, Lantana, Tex.)
Nick Davidson (Sr., OT, Eden Prairie, Minn.)
Noor Davis (Sr., ILB, Leesburg, Fla.)
Chris Harrell (Sr., FB, Missouri City, Tex.)
Craig Jones (Sr., ILB, Modesto, Calif.)
Dontonio Jordan (Sr., WR, Hickory Creek, Tex.)
Luke Kaumatule (Sr., OLB, Honolulu, Hawaii)
Dallas Lloyd (Sr., FS, Pleasant Grove, Utah)
Nate Lohn (Sr., DE, Kansas City, Mo.)
Michael Rector (Sr., WR, Gig Harbor, Wash.)
Barry Sanders (Sr., RB, Oklahoma City, Okla.)
Sam Shober (Sr., OLB, Monroe, Wash.)
Graham Shuler (Sr., C, Franklin, Tenn.)
Conrad Ukropina (Sr., K, Pasadena, Calif.)
Jordan Watkins (Sr., DE, Decatur, GA)
Sam Yules (Sr., ILB, Dartmouth, Mass.)

Saturday’s regular-season finale between No. 13 Stanford (9-2, 8-1 Pac-12) and No. 4 Notre Dame (10-1) will mark the fifth consecutive time both teams will be ranked going into their meeting, and on what is sure to be an emotional Senior Day at Stanford Stadium and in a matchup with College Football Playoff implications, don’t expect the string of tight games to be snapped on Saturday.

“They’re a really good team,” said fifth-year senior linebacker Kevin Anderson. “We’ve definitely got a challenge this week, but as far as rankings and standings, we don’t really look into that.”

That said, it’s impossible to ignore the dichotomy in the stakes for the two teams this week: Stanford is essentially playing with nothing to lose this week, with the Pac-12 North already on lock and fringe hopes at best for the Playoff, while Notre Dame is playing with everything to lose, as Saturday will practically serve as a play-in game for the final four.

With that said, don’t expect head coach David Shaw to be looking for a “statement win” to impress the Playoff committee or whatever on Saturday — he’s got more pressing matters to attend to. He’s very vocally made his distaste for Playoff talk known all season, and even with the implications this weekend, his response this week was no different.

“Instead of wasting my time and effort on trying to guess what might happen, I’d rather just play our games and see what happens,” Shaw said.

He’ll instead look to dedicate that time and effort to one of the most talented teams Stanford will have faced all season. Despite a rash of injuries to several key players, the Irish’s immense recruiting draw has meant that they have filled in adequately at all of those positions and have still won 10 games despite having 14 players listed on the injury report.

“There’s a whole lot of them. They’ve done a good job of recruiting,” Shaw said. “Very well-coached. All very aggressive and physical and they got after us last year.”

Although the Irish lost starting quarterback Malik Zaire a few weeks into the season, sophomore DeShone Kizer has quickly become a dynamic dual-threat replacement at the position. He’s accounted for 2,362 passing yards and 371 rushing yards this season and a combined 26 touchdowns, and despite the Irish’s recent struggles with turnovers and in the red zone, Kizer represents one of the most talented quarterbacks the Cardinal will have faced all season.

In order to combat the Irish’s attack, Stanford’s defense has been focusing especially hard on forcing turnovers this week while in practice. The Cardinal currently sit at 10th in the Pac-12 with a -2 turnover margin.

“We haven’t been doing a great job getting takeaways, so there’s definitely an emphasis on that this week,” Anderson said.

Given that Stanford could potentially be without its top two cornerbacks (Ronnie Harris and Alijah Holder) on Saturday, Stanford could probably use some turnover help, especially with dynamic receiver Will Fuller leading the charge for the Irish.

Fuller is currently averaging over 20 yards per reception and has accounted for 1,009 yards and 12 touchdowns on the season and will be looking to take advantage of a battered Stanford secondary that gave up a season-high 397 yards against Cal last Saturday.

The Irish also have two more dynamic receiving threats in seniors Chris Brown and Amir Carlisle, meaning that Stanford’s young secondary has a tall task ahead of it.

That’s not to say that it’ll be easy for the front seven, either: Although star running back C.J. Prosise will likely miss the game due to injury for Notre Dame, the Cardinal are taking the challenge of having to meet Notre Dame’s talented offensive line and freshman running back Josh Adams very seriously.

“Their O-line is probably the most physical and probably the best group that we’ve gone against,” Anderson said. “They’ve got some really good athletes as well.”

Because of Notre Dame’s big-play potential, Stanford’s offense will need to have a big day against the talented Irish defense, which limited the powerful Clemson and Navy offenses to 24 points apiece.

Fifth-year senior quarterback Kevin Hogan will have a more favorable matchup in his last home game with top Notre Dame cornerback KeiVarae Russell set to miss the game due to injury, which will also deprive the Irish of their second-leading tackler.

However, the more important matchup will likely be that of Notre Dame’s front seven against Christian McCaffrey and the Stanford offensive line, and the presence of linebackers Jaylon Smith and Joe Schmidt could prove the biggest obstacle yet in McCaffrey’s quest for the Heisman Trophy.

“If you like football, you watch film and you gain appreciation for a guy like this that really can do it all,” said Shaw about Smith. “There are a lot of guys that are fast and quick but not tough and not physical. The guys that are tough and physical and fast and explosive, you get a lot of respect for them.”

“Extremely fast and physical,” McCaffrey added. “They don’t put themselves in situations to fail. They put themselves in situations to succeed. Guys play their gaps right, and it’s definitely going to be a huge challenge.”

After McCaffrey’s school-record 389-yard performance against Cal on Saturday, he only needs 444 more all-purpose yards to break Barry Sanders’ all-time NCAA record of 3,250 yards and only 326 more rushing yards to break Toby Gerhart’s Stanford record for rushing yards in a season.

Another big day from McCaffrey will likely be a huge key for Stanford to win, especially because a slow day from the sophomore will mean that Stanford won’t be able to establish its running game as it likes to and will thus be out of its comfort zone.

But given the stakes — not just in terms of Playoff and rivalry value, but also with the emotions of Senior Day — look for Hogan, in his home swan song, to rebound from two rough career outings against the Irish (1 touchdown, 4 interceptions) to find a way to push the Cardinal to victory against an injured Irish secondary, with or without McCaffrey, as his storied Stanford career finally begins to draw to a close.

“It’s definitely a bittersweet moment because [Hogan is] someone that you want on your side forever,” McCaffrey said. “He’s such an unbelievable leader, an unbelievable person on and off the field, and the legacy that he’s left here is right up there with all the greats.”

Stanford will look to use the strong emotions from Senior Day and a Heisman moment or two from McCaffrey to push past Notre Dame at 4:30 p.m. on Saturday. The game will be broadcast on FOX.
Contact Do-Hyoung Park at dhpark ‘at’ stanford.edu.

The Stanford Daily (TSD): Can you believe that you’re actually a senior?

Graham Shuler (GS): It’s wild. I was sitting with Ronnie Harris at dinner last night talking about it. Just how fast our time here has gone. You look around in the locker room with a bunch of 18- and 19-year-olds and you feel like the old guy. I’ve cherished and loved my time here and I’m just blown away that we’re in Week 12 of the season.

TSD: Do you see yourself in any of the younger guys on the team?

GS: There’s a few of them…I love Daniel Marx. He started growing his hair out kind of long in line with me. He’s like a little brother. That’s how this place works. You take guys under your wing. Ben Gardner did it to me when I was a freshman. He and Sam Schwartzstein looked out for me. It’s a really cool pay-it-forward kind of program.

TSD: Are you planning on keeping the hair?

GS: I don’t know, man. I’m pretty attached to it. I think it’s going to be tough to get rid of it, but at some point I’ll probably have to be a little more professional.

TSD: You came in with an offensive line recruiting class that was considered the best in school history. How does it feel to be out there on the field and leading the offense?

GS: With Josh [Garnett] being a finalist for this Outland Trophy, it’s really exciting and a really cool testament to this group and what we’ve done. I’m honored to be called the ship driver of this group and I’m proud to be called Kev [Hogan’s] first mate in whatever we embark on. It’s an awesome time with those guys. I can’t say enough about them.

TSD: It seems that every time someone in the media needs a quote about a player on this team, they come to you. How are you everybody’s best friend in the locker room?

GS: I don’t know. I talk a lot I guess. I’m personable. I care about these guys and I’ve felt them care about me. It’s a close-knit brotherhood and I guess that’s it.

TSD: What was the adjustment like coming over to Stanford from Nashville, Tennessee?

GS: [laughing] I went home the first time and couldn’t even describe to people what it was like. Stanford was so different when I visited. I was walking around with my dad and I was like, “I can go here? I can go to this place?”

I tell people all people all the time I left the country and went to a different country, and it really is. It’s so wildly different: the food, the culture, the weather, I could go on and on.

TSD: What are your favorite memories of growing up in Nashville?

GS: I was just really lucky. Growing up the son of a musician and going to The Bluebird Café and doing all of those things was really cool. I was lucky to grow up in such a beautiful place. Tim McGraw yelling and cussing at me at football games…You just don’t get that any other place.

TSD: There are quite a few people on the football team from the South. Do you share any special bond with them?

GS: I kind of started this thing when I got here called the “So-Bros,” the Southern Boys, and we all had to stick together. Jordan Watkins and I originated that. There’s a lot of guys on this team from the South. [Virginia native Kevin Hogan] is a pseudo So-Bro.

It’s a totally different culture…It’s nice to have people who understand different types of barbecue and appreciate country music so it’s cool to surround yourself with some of those people.

TSD: What would you do if it weren’t for football?

GS: If it wasn’t for football, I’d probably be doing music and, if it wasn’t for music, I’m not sure what I’d be doing. I’d probably be doing what a lot of other seniors are doing right now: trying to figure out what career they’re going to embark on. I love entertainment and media kind of stuff and that’s the direction I feel pulled in — something in that world.

Contact Vihan Lakshman at vihan ‘at’ stanford.edu.

Michael Peterson: Stanford 34, Notre Dame 13

Stanford smells blood. Notre Dame has put together a valiant season, rising to No. 4 in the country despite losing its starting quarterback and running back to injuries in back-to-back weeks to open the season. But since losing to Clemson in early October, the Irish have played almost no one of note — they faced USC in the Trojans’ first week post-Sarkisian and their win over Temple has been devalued given that Temple was later blown out by South Florida. Last week, Notre Dame hung on to win despite its offense coughing the ball up five times.

On the other side, Stanford is humming along, consistently performing offensively every week. Yes, this game will most likely prove meaningless for the Cardinal… Unless Stanford puts an eye-opening beatdown on a potential Playoff team on primetime television to give itself at least an outside argument for a top-four spot heading into championship weekend, where who knows what might happen. The Cardinal have nothing to lose and everything to gain — a loss just officially affirms the already assumed fact that Stanford is out of Playoff contention, while a big win could send Stanford up into the top five or six. This class of seniors is 23-3 when playing at Stanford Stadium, and I expect them to go out with a load roar.

Winston Shi: Stanford 34, Notre Dame 20

I’m torn on this prediction, because I think that Stanford has the advantage in this game at home, with a roster that’s healthy for the most part. And if Stanford has an advantage, we all know that David Shaw has to exploit it for all it’s worth: When it comes to the Playoff, two-loss Stanford has to absolutely ROCK Notre Dame. (And now that the Selection Committee has sent a warning to ND by moving it out of the top four, ND is out for blood against Stanford too.)

The thing is, Stanford can’t rock ND without scoring almost at will against it. We all want to say that the Cardinal can do just that, but despite last week’s injury to ND starting cornerback KeiVarae Russell, Notre Dame has a good defense. Navy and Clemson have great offenses and the Domers held them to 24 points each. ND also held USC — no slouches on O — to 31 points. The Irish played ugly against Boston College last week, but everybody plays ugly in Boston. And even if Notre Dame has played a lot of mediocre offenses, it has still crushed them all.

David Shaw doesn’t normally try to run up the score, but I think he’ll have to in this game. The question is: will he be able to do that? I’m not so sure ND will break that easily — I’m not sure it will break at all. The team’s fighting for a Playoff spot, too. I believe my predicting a two-score victory already counts as drinking the Kool-Aid. And while I believe Stanford is the better team, particularly at home, it’s not inconceivable (although it is improbable) that this game could be a two-score loss.

Andrew Mather: Stanford 31, Notre Dame 24

By all obvious measures, Stanford and Notre Dame have absurdly similar records going into this game. If you exclude the Cardinal’s still-incomprehensible opening drop to Northwestern, each team’s only loss comes when it failed to force overtime by missing a 2-point conversion with under 10 seconds to go in regulation. What’s more, both teams beat USC, the only common opponent they’ve faced, by literally the exact same scoreline. It’s almost as if the gods of the college football world wanted to see what would happen if they pitted two identical teams against each other.

As has happened all too often this year, injuries may prove to be the key difference on Saturday. The most notable absence is that of Notre Dame starting running back C.J. Prosise, who is listed as doubtful after picking up a high ankle sprain last week against Boston College. I’m no doctor, but listing a player as “doubtful” for a high ankle sprain sounds to me like coach-speak for “he’s not playing, but let’s make them watch his film anyways.” Yet should Prosise show up anything less than 100 percent this weekend it should hurt the Irish tremendously — he’s been by far the most consistent offensive performer for Brian Kelly’s side this year, and I doubt backup Josh Adams has the experience to be an effective every-down back against the Stanford defense.

Notre Dame still has more than enough assets to keep things close, but I think the loss of Prosise breaks this theoretical tie in Stanford’s favor. If that weren’t enough, karma assuredly must catch the Irish at some point for thinking they could don these uniforms without consequences. Ultimately, all signs point to to Kevin Hogan’s last home start going the same way as his first and Stanford completing its fifth 10-win regular season in the last six years.

Vihan Lakshman: Stanford 34, Notre Dame 31

While a big Stanford win would obviously send a resounding message, such talk might be more than a little premature. Notre Dame is an extremely well-coached and talented group and by far the best team that Stanford will face this regular season. While the loss of Prosise will undoubtedly sting for the Irish, don’t sleep on backups Josh Adams and Dexter Williams having a big day behind one of the most experienced offensive lines in the nation. Quarterback DeShone Kizer will also be expected to contribute heavily in the run game and mobile quarterbacks have given the Cardinal some headaches this season. As Winston mentioned, the Domers’ defense held up extremely well against some top-tier offenses and will present a strong challenge all night long.

In a game that almost feels too close to call, home-field advantage tips the scale in Stanford’s favor. Playing for the final time in Stanford Stadium, Kevin Hogan looks poised for a big day and Stanford may very well take some shots early to test an already depleted Irish secondary sans KeiVarae Russell. In games shaping up to be close, turnovers often make the difference, and I like Stanford’s chances of taking care of the ball at home. Emerging from the tunnel in the black jerseys, Stanford rides another big day from Christian McCaffrey and a late defensive stop to turn the Irish away and earn a season-defining win.

Do-Hyoung Park: Stanford 24, Notre Dame 34

Although the numbers have certainly been there for Christian McCaffrey and the Stanford offensive line over the last few games, this Cardinal offense has seemed a lot less dynamic over the last few weeks, particularly in the passing game. Hogan seems to have lost touch on his deep passes and the offensive line has increasingly struggled to get good push on Stanford’s bread-and-butter power iso runs up the middle, and this Notre Dame defense, despite being ravaged by injuries, is as talented as they come due to the Irish’s ridiculous draw in recruiting.

Christian McCaffrey will have his chance to shine and cement a trip to New York on Saturday, but I think a stout Notre Dame defense will present the biggest challenge of the season to the stud sophomore, and Kevin Hogan has also had awful career numbers against Notre Dame (1 TD, 4 INT), which I can’t see improving given his lack of touch as of late. DeShone Kizer is a very dynamic dual-threat quarterback (26 total touchdowns), and with Stanford possibly down its best two cornerbacks, the Cardinal might very well have trouble bottling up the Notre Dame attack. Stanford is playing with nothing to lose and Notre Dame is playing with everything to lose; I think the Irish show up with a great game.

“My list of things that I’m thankful for… football’s down at the bottom, regardless.”

Wife and kids

“I’ve got a phenomenal wife and great kids. The family’s been very supportive.”

The coaching staff

“We spend so many hours together. They’re good guys, they’re good people to be around.”

His team’s attitude

“Before we even talk about football, this group of young men, in particular the leadership that we have, the young guys that come in and play their roles, and practice every day is energetic and fun. The meetings are great — the guys are attentive, they contribute. The atmosphere that we have right now is a lot of fun to be a part of. Yes, more often than not, it manifests itself as winning games, but besides just the winning and losing, it’s just a really good group of people to be around.”

Who are some of the more underappreciated guys on the team?

(Sophomore fullback) Daniel Marx

“I would start with Daniel Marx. For all he’s done this year, he’s gotten no notoriety. I’d be surprised if there’s a better fullback in America for what he does. He’s only a sophomore, he’s going to keep getting better.”

(Senior right guard) Johnny Caspers

“I think Johnny Caspers is an underappreciated player to a certain degree. Josh Garnett gets a lot of credit, which he really deserves, he might be the best guard in the nation. He’s phenomenal. Kyle Murphy is playing really well. Graham [Shuler] is playing his best football. Johnny Caspers, I think, is playing really, really well. It’s been exciting to watch him take that next step.”

Defensive line

“We don’t have a bunch of sacks; we don’t have a bunch of TFLs. But they help those linebackers do what they do. I think that whole group — they work really hard. They’re undersized; they’re undermanned. But they’ve played really hard.”

(Senior kicker) Conrad Ukropina

“He’s been really good on field goals. He’s come in and he’s been a steady kickoff guy for us as well. For a guy that not too long ago was a backup kicker and a walk-on, he’s operated like we need a guy to operate.”

(Junior punter) Alex Robinson

“Alex has been great. He’s had games where he’s determined field position for us. Field position leads to points, and he’s had a couple of great bombs, he’s been punting to some really, really great punt returners that we’ve kept in the corner, we’ve punted the ball out of bounds inside the 20-yard line, we’ve had great hang time so our guys can get down there and make them fair catch it.”

Contact Do-Hyoung Park at dhpark ‘at’ stanford.edu.

Stanford’s jack-of-all-trades once again demonstrated how vital he is to the team in last week’s victory against Cal, singlehandedly accounting for nearly 70 percent of the team’s yards and allowing the Cardinal to win comfortably despite being dominated statistically. The nation’s all-purpose yardage leader will need another strong outing in order to keep the team’s College Football Playoff aspirations and his own Heisman hopes alive.

vs.

Jaylon Smith, LB (Jr.)

A finalist for the Butkus Award, awarded to the nation’s top linebacker, Smith has had another remarkable season for the Fighting Irish. A Second-Team All-American selection in 2014, Smith leads Notre Dame in tackles with 98, 30 more than any other player on the team. He is also the team leader in pass breakups with 5 and has posted 8 tackles for loss on the season.

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Stanford secondary

Stanford’s pass defense is on shaky ground, as No. 1 and 2 cornerbacks Ronnie Harris and Alijah Holder are huge question marks going into Saturday’s game. Regardless of who is able to start in the secondary, the unit will have its hands full dealing with the arm of quarterback DeShone Kizer, who ranks top 20 in the country in passer efficiency, and his talented wide receiver squad.

vs.

Will Fuller, WR (Jr.)

Leading the charge in the passing game for the Fighting Irish is Fuller, whose 1,009 yards on 50 receptions are a team-best. The junior is a formidable deep-threat, as he averages 20.2 yards per catch, and has 12 touchdowns, good for seventh-best in the country. 

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Joshua Garnett, OG (Sr.)

The senior’s play this season has raised eyebrows across the country, earning him recognition as a finalist for the Outland Trophy, given to the nation’s most outstanding lineman. Garnett may also be the best pulling guard in the country, paving the way for the Cardinal backfield, while also making the weekly highlight reels for his obliteration of defenders.

vs.

Sheldon Day, DT (Sr.)

Day is the most disruptive player on the Notre Dame defense, as he leads the team with 14.5 tackles for loss. Both Day and and Garnett figure to be playing on Sundays next year, and the matchup will surely be an intriguing one.

Contact Neel Ramachandran at neelr ‘at’ stanford.edu.

In the last few years, results in the Stanford-Notre Dame game have been mixed. The home team has won in each of the last four years (something that bodes well for Stanford), while the higher-ranked team has won in each of the last five (something that bodes well for Notre Dame).

That being said, regardless of the winner, recent matchups between the Cardinal and the Irish have provided their fair share of excitement. Here’s a look at the last three contests for the Legends Trophy:

2012: “Classic goal line stand”

In the 2012 game between Stanford and Notre Dame, Stepfan Taylor (above) was ruled down on a controversial fourth-and-goal call that gave the Irish a 20-13 overtime win. (Aaron Suozzi Photography)

The 2012 matchup between these two teams was just about as ugly of a game as possible. There were 15 total penalties, 5 total turnovers and each side’s starting quarterback completed about 50 percent of his passes.

After four brutally physical quarters, the game was tied at 13. In overtime, Notre Dame scored on its first possession with a 7-yard touchdown pass from Tommy Rees to TJ Jones.

That put the onus on the Stanford offense, and unsurprisingly, the game came down to a goal-line possession. The Cardinal had the ball on the 4-yard line on first down before power back Stepfan Taylor was able to muster 3 yards on three downs. On fourth-and-1, Stanford handed it off to Taylor one last time, and on a controversial call, it was decided that Taylor did not break the plane.

Stanford walked out of South Bend with a tough 20-13 loss, its first against Notre Dame in four years.

2013: The heart of a Lyons

The 2013 meeting between the two teams was eventually decided on two late interceptions by then-junior cornerback Wayne Lyons (right). Notre Dame quarterback Tommy Rees’ two late picks preserved a 27-20 Stanford win. (BOB DREBIN/stanfordphoto.com)

In 2013, Stanford found itself in a situation very similar to the one it’s in right now. The Cardinal had already secured the Pac-12 North, and with two losses, a spot in the BCS Championship Game didn’t look likely. Thus, it welcomed a talented Notre Dame team at the end of the season with not a whole lot to lose.

That was exactly how Stanford played. Tyler Gaffney ran for 189 yards and a touchdown, and a physical style of play led Stanford to a 24-20 lead entering the fourth quarter.

At that point, Wayne Lyons took over. The junior cornerback intercepted two late passes from Tommy Rees to help Stanford hold on for a 27-20 win. Lyons transferred to Michigan after his senior year to play for Jim Harbaugh, the man who recruited him, but he certainly made his presence felt as a Cardinal in the penultimate game of his junior year.

2014: Fourth and Golson

The 2014 game was decided on a late coverage breakdown on fourth-and-11, when Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson (center) found his tight end in the corner of the end zone for the late go-ahead touchdown. (ROBIN ALAM/isiphotos.com)

Senior Everett Golson had his stuggles against a tough Stanford defense, but he found his man right when he needed to.

With about a minute remaining in the game, Golson threw a 23-yard touchdown pass to tight end Ben Koyack on fourth-and-11 to put Notre Dame on top. It was a play in which Stanford’s secondary collapsed, and Koyack was able to break loose at just the right moment in order to give the Irish the win.

It was an exceptionally ugly game for Stanford that was somewhat emblematic of its 2014-15 season, as the team committed nine penalties and managed just 205 yards of total offense. However, the Cardinal had a chance to win, and they simply weren’t able to hold on.

Contact Sandip Srinivas at sandips ‘at’ stanford.edu.

In Harris’ absence last Saturday, Stanford’s secondary gave up a season-high 397 yards through the air to Cal quarterback Jared Goff and his air raid offense. Sophomore Alijah Holder initially started as the Cardinal’s top cornerback alongside sophomore Alameen Murphy before suffering an injury of his own and leaving the game. Sophomore Terrence Alexander assumed Holder’s duties upon the latter’s exit from the game.

Shaw said that the team is “still holding out hope” on Holder, who ran around for a good chunk of Wednesday’s practice before being held out for the remainder of the session. Shaw will look to better evaluate Holder’s health on Friday and make a decision then.

“He looked good when he was running today, but we cautiously pulled him out,” Shaw said.

Earlier in the week, Shaw announced at his Tuesday press conference that sophomore fullback Daniel Marx will miss the remainder of the season with a lower leg injury suffered in the Cardinal’s 35-22 win over California.

“It’s tough,” Shaw said. “Daniel has had a phenomenal year. This is a guy who is going to play on Sundays. He’s that good — a very versatile football player.”

The loss of the 6-foot-2, 254-pound sophomore means that senior Chris Harrell will start at fullback for the Cardinal for the remainder of the season. When Marx limped off of the field during the Cal game, Harrell, who had previously only seen garbage-time action, filled in for Marx adequately.

“We have a lot of faith in Chris,” Shaw said. “We have a combination of guys we may use at that position. Chris has prepared as a starter.”

Marx’s efforts have been a significant contributor to sophomore running back Christian McCaffrey’s Heisman Trophy campaign, in which he leads the Pac-12 with 1,549 rushing yards and just eclipsed the 2,700-yard mark in all-purpose yardage.

Marx has also been instrumental in setting up Stanford’s goal-line success with Remound Wright in the “ogre” package, in which Marx is one of two fullbacks in the backfield, along with offensive lineman Brandon Fanaika. Wright currently leads the conference with 12 rushing touchdowns, all of which have come in goal-to-go situations.

Shaw insists that the loss of Marx will not have any effect on the way he approaches short-yardage and goal-line situations.

Contact Do-Hyoung Park at dhpark ‘at’ stanford.edu.

The ellipsis, though, conveys something much larger than just three dots, something larger than just the team or the players and even the loyal fans; it’s something that Stanford football has aspired to since its first Rose Bowl appearance over a century ago and something that Stanford University has aspired to since Leland’s and Jane’s charter of this great institution: its national preeminence, peerlessness atop all of the national rankings, be it academic or athletic.

It’s what drives all Stanford students, and what will drive the Cardinal to the second College Football Playoff.

This week, Stanford is ranked ninth in the country. While the rise in the rankings is encouraging, a few teams ahead of Stanford are of particular concern, namely Notre Dame at No. 6, our opponent a few days from now. Stanford must beat Notre Dame convincingly, and Stanford must win the Pac-12 Championship against either of the L.A. schools. Stanford also has to get a little help from other teams.

Oklahoma at No. 3 is the biggest threat, because the Sooners inexplicably were moved up three spots and are in the Big 12, the conference most likely to be left out other than the Pac-12. Seeing as the Sooners were a tipped ball away from losing last week, have an underwhelming resume compared to Michigan State (No. 5) and undefeated Iowa (No. 4) and lost in their only common game with the Irish  (17-24 at Texas, while Notre Dame beat Texas 38-3), their ranking is mind-boggling.

The only rational explanation I could theorize is that the selection committee likes putting Big 12 teams at third in the rankings until the very last release, and then dropping them to sixth to exact maximum torment, like it did with TCU last year. Either way, Stanford fans need to root for previously unbeaten Oklahoma State (No. 11) to upset its rivals at home in the Bedlam game this weekend.

Elsewhere rivalry games create chaos, and No. 2 Alabama, No. 1 Clemson and No. 8 Ohio State all have rivalry games. The Iron and Palmetto bowls with the two top-ranked teams are not likely to produce upsets, but if either team trips up this week or in its respective conference championship game, that would open the door just wide enough for a two-loss Stanford team to sneak in.

If No. 11 Michigan beats the Buckeyes, that would eliminate another team ahead of Stanford and also set up a possible Rose Bowl matchup between mentor Jim Harbaugh and protégé David Shaw. Since neither Michigan nor Ohio State is likely to play in the Big Ten championship, neither threatens the Cardinal too much in the playoff hunt. The loser of the Big Ten Championship is likely to drop below the winner of this game and the winner of the Big Ten will almost certainly play in a semifinal game, so this rivalry game at the Big House is almost a Rose Bowl play-in game. If the Cardinal were to miss out on the playoff, a matchup against Michigan sounds much more appealing than Iowa.

The only other team ahead of Stanford is No. 7 Baylor, which plays at TCU this week and then home against Texas in conference championship week. If the Bears lose either of these games, they are a non-factor, but even if they win out, they will likely not win the Big 12, and the committee has shown a propensity to pick conference champions, so Stanford should still make it ahead of them.

One other game to watch is USC vs. UCLA this weekend. Stanford will play the winner next week in Santa Clara and look to impress the committee in that game. Root for No. 22 UCLA, because the Bruins would have a higher ranking going into the Pac-12 Championship Game, and Stanford matches up much better against them than USC. If Stanford can make a great leap forward in the final weekend, then it will have to win like Ohio State did last year (59-0 over Wisconsin). UCLA makes that much more possible than USC.

One thing to take to heart is that not all of these scenarios must occur — just one or two must. So keep your TV tuned all day Saturday and watch and hope for upsets and a good Stanford victory and No. 5 in the Stanford backfield (wildcaff.com).

Ask Michael Spelfogel about his feelings towards TCU’s two-point conversion attempt against Oklahoma last week at mspel ‘at’ stanford.edu.

Stanford moved up two whole places from last week’s poll! That means we’re that much closer to a Playoff berth, right?

Whoa there. Cool your jets. While it’s true that Stanford is two spots closer to the elusive final four and a lot of the dominoes that I mentioned last week did indeed fall Stanford’s way, just ask TCU how little these preliminary rankings mean (in case you don’t remember, the Horned Frogs were No. 3 in the second-to-last poll last year and won 55-3 before falling all the way to No. 6 in the final poll). So don’t get your hopes up just yet.

It also doesn’t help that arguably the most crucial domino that Stanford needed to fall its way — Utah beating UCLA — didn’t happen last week, meaning that Stanford’s opponent in the Pac-12 Championship (the winner of USC-UCLA) will almost certainly be unranked after a loss to Stanford.

Given that the ACC, Big Ten and SEC champions will all be coming off cushy wins against top-15 opponents, that certainly won’t be a good look for the Cardinal, essentially nullifying the advantage Stanford gets from playing in a championship game (unlike the Big 12 or Notre Dame).

Oh. Well, when you put it that way, it makes it sound like things are already over.

Remember that it ain’t over until it’s over. That being said… the chances are pretty slim at this point. There would need to be a pretty healthy dose of chaos above Stanford in the next two weeks in order for a path to open up. A one-loss Stanford would be looking really good at this point, but… Oregon.

Don’t be sad. If Stanford wins out, the worst the Cardinal can do is the Rose Bowl. We’re not Oregon. We will never get to a point where the Rose Bowl isn’t good enough for us. Besides, a Stanford-Ohio State or Stanford-Michigan matchup on Jan. 1 would be positively dope.

All right, now that the pressing stuff is out of the way, let’s get to the part where I tell you who you should be rooting for in this week’s games. As with last week, here are the base assumptions regarding the different conferences and how I figure they’ll play into the Playoff picture (and as with last week, I’m not here to argue about this):

• An undefeated Group of Five team will not make the Playoff. Given that there are no longer any undefeated Group of Five teams left, this is not a problem.
• A two-loss SEC champion is still in, even if it’s Florida with its shitty near-losses to Vanderbilt and Florida Atlantic. Such is life.
• A one-loss Big Ten champion is in unless its name is Iowa, since a one-loss Big Ten champion Iowa would mean that Iowa lost to Nebraska on Saturday, which would be too big of a loss too late in the year for the Hawkeyes to recover.
• People are trying to argue otherwise, but I’m still pretty confident that a one-loss ACC champion would be out. Consider that Clemson’s only good wins of the year are against Notre Dame and Florida State, and try and argue how that’s a better resume than that of Stanford. I dare you.
• A one-loss Big 12 champion would be iffy to get in over Stanford. Oklahoma is the exception here. TCU is on the verge of dropping out of the polls altogether, nobody really liked Oklahoma State too much in the first place and Baylor might not get a big enough boost from beating TCU.

Of course, all of this is null and void if Stanford doesn’t beat Notre Dame, so you should obviously be rooting for that to happen as well. Obvious matchups (like Clemson or Alabama losing) will be omitted for brevity.

Week 13

(20) Washington State at Washington

A Washington win here would be better for the Pac-12 because it would mean that 10 of the 12 teams in the conference would be bowl-eligible (seriously, that would be sweet) but a Wazzu triumph helps Stanford out more because you want as many of Stanford’s opponents to be ranked as possible. You should be rooting for a healthy dose of Mike Leach pirate magic and for the Wazzu offensive line to keep Luke Falk’s backup from getting broken in half on any of his 150 pass attempts.

(4) Iowa at Nebraska

A Nebraska win would be great for Stanford. Since Iowa already has the Big Ten West locked up, this would give the opportunity for a one-loss Iowa to win the Big Ten, which would boot the Big Ten out of the Playoff given how much people love to hate Iowa. (Rightfully so, because Iowa is inferior to my home state of Minnesota in every meaningful way.)

Oregon State at (17) Oregon

Let’s keep the Ducks ranked, too for good measure. Make that loss as quality as possible.

(16) Northwestern vs. Illinois

The other loss, too.

(7) Baylor at (19) TCU

A Baylor loss makes the elites of the Big 12 look weaker as a whole. You need to hope that the Pac-12 isn’t the only conference that’s good at cannibalizing itself at the most inopportune times (thanks a lot, Oregon).

(8) Ohio State at (10) Michigan

Let’s hope Michigan doesn’t lay an egg, because you want a two-loss Michigan to win the Big Ten. Also, Jim Harbaugh doesn’t believe in laying eggs.

“The [laying an egg] analogy doesn’t resonate with me. I don’t really like comparing humans to chickens or any other type of animal.” – Jim Harbaugh

Penn State at (5) Michigan State

This is the other thing that needs to happen for Michigan to win the Big Ten East. You need to hope that Christian Hackenberg’s offensive line can pass protect for more than half a second on any given down.

(22) UCLA at USC

Jim Mora gets night sweats thinking about having to face Stanford again.

(18) Ole Miss at (21) Mississippi State

A three-loss SEC champion Ole Miss would leave the SEC out of the Playoff and the South on the verge of secession. In case you’re wondering, those are both good things. (This also requires an Alabama loss.)

(3) Oklahoma at (11) Oklahoma State

You need to hope that Bedlam lives up to its name. An Oklahoma loss makes things a lot easier for Stanford.

South Florida at UCF

Can we make sure that Stanford’s only current non-conference win isn’t complete garbage?

***

As always, remember that the outcomes of these games are completely out of your (or my) hands and as such, don’t be angry if the results don’t come out favorably towards Stanford’s quest for the Playoff. Remember, if Stanford hadn’t lost to Oregon, we wouldn’t be having this conversation right now. Don’t let this column get your hopes up too much — it’s just a road map as to what you should be rooting for.

Happy cheering!

Ask Do-Hyoung Park about the insecurities he faces about being from a state such as Minnesota at dhpark ‘at’ stanford.edu.

Why is the RPO so effective? Simple — it’s a way of introducing complexity into an oversimplified game. Football is traditionally viewed as a game where you run or you pass, but you can’t really do both. There have always been exceptions to that idea, but even these exceptions are ones ingrained into our memory. We’ve all seen mobile quarterbacks that roll to the right and set up a one-read play — either they throw deep, or they tuck and run. We’ve all seen Oregon spread defenses with screen passes in order to set up the run. We’ve all seen play-action — not an RPO, but a similar principle applies. Instinctively, we know that offensive football is a lot more fluid than we normally think.

However, the rules force offenses to ultimately declare a run or a pass after the snap, and that’s why it’s easy for defenses to react quickly to an unfolding offensive play. The offensive pass interference rule bans receivers from blocking before the ball is actually thrown. And if you are going to throw the ball, the illegal-man-downfield rule is designed to stop you from committing your offensive line to the run. Ineligible receivers (99 percent of the time, this means offensive linemen) can’t be more than three yards downfield. But three yards is a lot of leeway. You can still block downfield and throw the ball, and it’ll look a lot like a play-fake.

It’s not just spread option teams that use RPOs. Run-first offenses like Oregon use RPOs, pass-first teams like Oklahoma State use them — even Stanford uses them, particularly in Kevin Hogan’s “in-case-of-emergency” QB Power package.

(Word to the wise: David Shaw is a very modern offensive coach. He relies so heavily on his base offense for two reasons: first, because his offense is so good that he can get away with it, and second, because he knows that opposing coaches can watch his game film too, so the fancy stuff should stay in the playbook and off the field as long as possible.)

Because RPOs are so popular these days, the NCAA considered giving linemen just one yard of freedom instead of three after the end of last season. Clearly, the NCAA decided that changing the rules wasn’t worth it. I wholeheartedly agree. The solution, if the situation even needs a “solution,” is to enforce the rules already on the books, and to only change the rules if the rules are nonsensical or blatantly unbalance the game.

Unfortunately, I’m also going to highlight one of the reasons why a number of people think that RPOs should be banned: because they can encourage teams to break the rules and dare the refs to throw flags on every play. I don’t like harping on about no-calls — regardless of whether Stanford wins or loses — but I saw Cal sending illegal men downfield often enough that I want to make a point of highlighting that tendency today. There’s nothing inherently wrong with the run-pass option, but I don’t think Cal runs it in a way with which I’d be comfortable.

I’m not saying that Cal got special treatment compared to other teams that run packaged plays. I am, however, going to diagram two RPOs in which Cal blockers broke the rules — and these two RPOs helped set up 10 points for the Golden Bears.

***

Both plays I’m discussing today are standard frontside traps with a deep post tacked on top. The backside guard pulls out of the formation and hammers the end man on the line of scrimmage, and the player that would ordinarily block the end man moves forward to block a linebacker. Both of these plays are also run in an illegal fashion, and in ways that make it considerably easier for Cal to move the ball.

The first play is a 23-yard strike to Maurice Harris in the third quarter. Jared Goff only has time for one read before making the decision to throw the ball or hand off, so he’s fortunate that Cal coach Sonny Dykes draws up a very simple one. Essentially, the question is what free safety Kodi Whitfield is going to do. It’s six-on-six in the tackle box, so against most teams Stanford would move Whitfield down in run support. However, Stanford doesn’t really respect the Cal run game, so Whitfield’s playing further out.

Everything so far is kosher. Whitfield is trying to play two roles at once, which is a tough situation for any player. But Cal forces Whitfield to more meaningfully respect the run by blocking for a run play, which should rule out the possibility of a pass. At the snap, linebacker Blake Martinez (W) actually drops behind the magic 3-yard line when he realizes the play is an RPO, likely because anybody who’s watched Cal film can tell you that Cal…erm…toes the line…with illegal men downfield. Cal’s right tackle Deion Oliver blocks him anyway. That’s a signal for the safeties to crash the run.

Oliver isn’t flagged, Whitfield sees that Cal has its blocks set and moves towards the tackle box, and Harris (X) gets his one-on-one matchup against Alameen Murphy (C). With a star quarterback like Jared Goff throwing the ball and a 6-foot-3 wideout versus a 5-foot-11 corner, that play’s an advantage for the Golden Bears. But if Whitfield hadn’t focused on the run and instead bracketed the post route, the advantage would have flipped to Stanford. Instead Cal marched into the red zone.

The second play is a 20-yard strike to Trevor Davis, also in the third quarter. Ordinarily I’d err on the side of caution and call this cutup a play-fake, but the downfield blocking in the tackle box is illegal enough that it’s obviously a packaged play.

This is the same play as the previous one, but it presents an even easier read for Goff, because Whitfield is on the opposite side of the field. Goff will throw the skinny post to Davis (Z) unless Stanford shifts to Cover 2. Two high safeties would give Dallas Lloyd ($) a better angle on Davis, but it would also give Cal a six-on-six matchup in the box, making a run play more viable. (Strictly speaking, it’s already six-on-six, but Whitfield can recover to the box if Cal runs the ball.)

Again, everything is legal until the snap. But after the snap, tight end Raymond Hudson (Y) makes contact with linebacker Jordan Perez (M) when Goff still has the ball in his hands, and five yards beyond the line of scrimmage to boot. (Even if it had been four yards, the NFL five-yard contact zone does not apply to college football.) This isn’t an ineligible receiver downfield penalty, as Hudson is perfectly eligible, but it is offensive pass interference.

With Davis one-on-one with Terrence Alexander (C) and Lloyd too far away to provide meaningful safety help, Goff finds a window and gets Cal to the Stanford 5. Cal would have gotten eight yards easily if Dykes had just called a trap, but the post was more enticing.

The skinny post was the right call at the right time, and in this case, Stanford’s defensive back alignment ($ deep, as usual, and F/S shifted to the wide side of the field) played into Cal’s hands. The run-pass option element of this play was essentially nonexistent. I get why referees might be loath to throw flags on a play that would have been successful with or without the penalty — you can argue that Lloyd would have been able to react quickly and bracket the post if Cal’s line had pass blocked instead of trapping, but at the end of the day, this was just a good call by Dykes. But this fact raises the question: Why not just run a standard play instead of stretching the rules? Ultimately, the way Cal ran this play is a symptom of a larger problem with how Cal chooses to run its offense.

***

I’ve just criticized Cal and Sonny Dykes, so let’s be fair to Dykes. If I said this to his face, he’d likely ask in response: If a play is chronically no-called, is it really a rule?

We all know about the Seattle Seahawks playing tough press coverage with their cornerbacks, daring referees to call defensive pass interference, and we all know about the New England Patriots doing the same with their receivers on the offensive side of the ball. But many fans may overlook the extent to which rules are stretched on every single play. At the very least, they may overlook stretching the rules when it comes to their own team.

A lot of Stanford fans appear to have ignored Stanford holding on Christian McCaffrey’s magnificent kickoff return touchdown — although that TD falls under the same category as the Trevor Davis reception, where the illegal act had no direct effect on the outcome of the play. And for the most part refs are pretty generous with the rules too. I’d say that most holding isn’t called — and when it’s flagged, it’s often after one or two warnings by the refs. In that case, limited holding becomes in a strange way acceptable.

Moreover, even if Cal broke the rules, its wideouts still had to get open. Goff did most of his damage against soft zone coverage (David Shaw hates the term “bend-but-don’t-break” because it sounds “passive,” but if Stanford’s gameplan on Saturday wasn’t bend-but-don’t-break, nothing is), but Harris and Davis got open against what amounted to man-to-man coverage. They did their jobs. They got open. It’s not as though RPOs are guaranteed touchdowns. You still have to work for your points; you just have to work less.

Nevertheless, Cal made hay out of sending guys downfield and never got penalized for the privilege at all. Cal picked up 8 penalties for 63 yards, but look at the play-by-play for yourself — not a single one of Cal’s penalties involved illegal blocking in the tackle box, and yet that kind of blocking was an important component of Cal’s offensive scheme.

Sure, Stanford won. And sure, it might not be sporting to point out Cal no-calls in a game that Stanford won. I’ll admit that I’d be able to sleep at night if Stanford were the team running illegal run-pass options in its base offense — if the team was chronically not flagged, it might as well be legal. But at the risk of sounding sanctimonious, I’m still not a fan of what Cal’s trying to do, because it’s against both the letter and the spirit of the rules. And while pushing the boundaries of what we normally expect is part of football, I think Cal can do better. The Pac-12 can start by throwing some flags.

Contact Winston Shi at wshi94 ‘at’ stanford.edu.

Michael Peterson: Don’t get your hopes up for the Playoff, Stanford fans. First things first, Stanford has to beat Notre Dame and beat the Pac-12 South champion. From a pure statistical approach, odds are Stanford doesn’t even win out.

Stanford needs multiple results to go its way in each conference in order to have an argument. In the SEC, Florida would need to lose to Florida State then beat Alabama, or Ole Miss would need to win the conference. In the Big 12, both Oklahoma and Baylor need to lose, and even then it’s questionable with one-loss Oklahoma State. In the ACC, Stanford might have an argument against one-loss ACC Champion North Carolina, but to be sure it would need to have North Carolina finish with two losses and still win the ACC. I could keep going on about the different scenarios, but they start to become even more ludicrous and unlikely. Stanford’s best shot involves the SEC being completely shut out of the Playoff — that’s a scary thought.

Point is, the Playoff is a long shot. Should Stanford win out, it will more than likely finish ranked fifth, which I unknowingly wrote about before the season. But that’s perfectly okay.

If I told you that Stanford could make a Rose Bowl after it was 0-1 with an offense that scored just six points against Northwestern, would you be mad? If I told you before the season that Stanford would lose to Oregon and still win the Pac-12 North, would you be sad that the team just controls its Rose Bowl hopes and not its Playoff hopes? Perspective, perspective, perspective. To even be talking about a playoff possibility is a luxury.

Stanford fans, hope desperately for a Rose Bowl appearance, and should Stanford wake up on Dec. 6 with a spot in the top four, be deliriously surprised.

Winston Shi: I agree with Michael that the odds of Stanford making the Playoff are really low. I also believe that if we’re complaining about a scenario where Stanford controls its Rose Bowl destiny, we’re on the road to being Oregon, and nobody wants to be Oregon. But for the sake of argument, let’s do some calculations.

Chaos in the ACC – Clemson loses to both South Carolina and North Carolina. The Tigers would still be in the Playoff over Stanford if they beat USC and lose to UNC unless the Tar Heels annihilate them, and they would almost certainly be in the Playoff if they beat UNC and lose to USC. FSU is only ranked No. 13, so it will not jump Stanford. (10 percent x 35 percent)

Chaos in the B1G – It’s tough to imagine the B1G getting shut out of the playoff in favor of the Cardinal. In any Pac 12-Big Ten argument with equal-loss teams, despite Utah’s win over Michigan, the Pac-12 has the two big anchors of Stanford’s loss to Northwestern and Oregon’s loss to Michigan State. Moreover there is no way that the Big Ten champ emerges with three losses. Unless Stanford bombs Notre Dame back to the Stone Age, you’re basically hoping that:

      a) Iowa loses to Nebraska, wins the conference championship and gets utterly hammered by the committee, even as a one-loss team, for losing to the Huskers (unlikely, given that Nebraska would be a 10-win team if they’d executed in close losses)

      b) Michigan, the only potential two-loss Big Ten champ ranked below Stanford, wins the conference championship. You’d be asking for Penn State over Michigan State and Michigan over Ohio State and then Iowa. Plus the committee would have to pick Stanford over Michigan — and that, I’d say, is a coin flip. (35 percent x 45 percent x 55 percent x 50 percent)

Chaos in the SEC – There’s only one way: Three-loss Ole Miss is the conference champion. A two-loss SEC champ, even with a very unimpressive set of close wins against bad teams (Florida), would make the playoff. So basically, you’re hoping for Ole Miss to beat Mississippi State, Auburn to beat Alabama, and Ole Miss to beat Florida. (70 percent x 15 percent x 40 percent).

Chaos in the B12 – A one-loss Oklahoma State, with wins over Oklahoma and TCU, gets the nod over Stanford, which would have better wins but two losses. Regardless of who wins Bedlam, the Big 12 is getting into the Playoff unless Oklahoma gets utterly and irredeemably jobbed by the refs (and we are talking Colorado Fifth Down levels of being jobbed) in a close loss to Oklahoma State. Also, Baylor would need to lose to TCU. The Frogs might well beat the Bears, but the first condition…nah. (All together, 1 percent)

Quick back-of-the-envelope calculation: Stanford has a 10.49 percent chance of making the Playoff.

That’s actually better than I thought. It’s still not great. But there’s hope. (Forget for a moment that it’s the hope that crushes you in the end.)

Contact Michael Peterson at mrpeters ‘at’ stanford.edu and Winston Shi at wshi94 ‘at’ stanford.edu.