Nate SilverVerifisert konto

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, . Author, The Signal and the Noise (). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Registrerte seg august 2008
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  1. for 24 minutter siden

    My premise is that Romney was reasonable to believe he'd be a better SOS for the country than the alternatives. Not just personal ambition.

    76 svar 118 retweets 610 liker
  2. for 37 minutter siden

    Sympathetic to Romney, who's smart enough to know he had an 80% chance of being humiliated. But SOS=high reward. Took some guts & integrity.

    165 svar 161 retweets 706 liker
  3. for 6 timer siden

    Tillerson would be a difficult confirmation for Trump. Lots of Russia hawks on the Sen. Foreign Relations Committee.

    69 svar 291 retweets 586 liker
  4. for 6 timer siden

    Interesting comparing hyperbolic NYT coverage of Comey letter to skeptical coverage of Russia/Trump links:

    96 svar 1 030 retweets 1 609 liker
  5. for 10 timer siden

    Correct link this time:

    Do you have experience ... 1. writing/reporting on politics? 2. using data to understand politics? Write for us:
    15 svar 30 retweets 48 liker
  6. for 10 timer siden

    Do you have experience ... 1. writing/reporting on politics? 2. using data to understand politics? Write for us:

    25 svar 120 retweets 168 liker
  7. for 12 timer siden

    OK, revised list, adding Jerry Moran (KS). That's 12 recently + 3 before election. Counting GOPers only. Not adding Burr, who has waffled.

    82 svar 487 retweets 646 liker
  8. for 12 timer siden

    I count 10 GOP senators who recently endorsed an investigation into Russian hacking + 3 more who did so before election. Anyone I'm missing?

    229 svar 2 018 retweets 3 073 liker
  9. 11. des.

    A few of us had that Bolton idea- given Trump's biz negotiating strategy of staking out extreme position to move the compromise set point.

    Why? Maybe to make the replacement choice (Bolton?) seem more acceptable by comparison. Or maybe to show his dominance / troll everyone.
    29 svar 128 retweets 279 liker
  10. 11. des.

    Why? Maybe to make the replacement choice (Bolton?) seem more acceptable by comparison. Or maybe to show his dominance / troll everyone.

    111 svar 146 retweets 580 liker
  11. 11. des.

    ...or to deny that Tillerson had ever been picked the first place (can't trust the lyin' media), which he's sort of already doing.

    35 svar 140 retweets 455 liker
  12. 11. des.

    Usually hate these 12-dimensional chess arguments, but seems possible Trump floated Tillerson expecting to withdraw him later...

    Being a "friend of Vladimir" is not an attribute I am hoping for from a - MR
    138 svar 385 retweets 1 066 liker
  13. 11. des.

    I'll put it like this: Clinton would almost certainly be President-elect if the election had been held on Oct. 27 (day before Comey letter).

    1 312 svar 6 336 retweets 8 310 liker
  14. 11. des.

    There's more evidence, too: Late-deciding voters broke strongly against Clinton in swing states, enough to cost her MI/WI/PA.

    174 svar 1 263 retweets 1 383 liker
  15. 11. des.

    Comey had a large, measurable impact on the race. Harder to say with Russia/Wikileaks because it was drip-drip-drip.

    Friendly question: Is there data to support #2?
    232 svar 1 719 retweets 2 194 liker
  16. 11. des.

    If you're Trump, what's the rationale for picking Tillerson *other* than the Russia stuff? He's not George C. Marshall, exactly.

    372 svar 1 751 retweets 3 548 liker
  17. 10. des.

    ...so as few as 3 Republican defections (e.g. Graham, McCain, Collins) could kill the Tillerson nomination.

    84 svar 430 retweets 960 liker
  18. 10. des.

    It's a challenging conirmation. Would seem easy for almost all Dems to hold the line against "ExxonMobil CEO with Putin ties"...

    Typically each President loses one Cabinet pick to scandal (Baird, Chavez, Daschle) or non-confirmation (Tower). Perhaps Tillerson's the one
    94 svar 412 retweets 946 liker
  19. 10. des.

    Just leavin' this here:

    200 svar 4 992 retweets 3 719 liker
  20. 10. des.

    As an aside, there was much mockery of Trump whenever he campaigned in WI & MI and sometimes also PA. People believed that "blue wall" crap.

    174 svar 243 retweets 889 liker

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