The 2018 Congressional Retirement Tracker
Updated on June 5 at 2:40 p.m. ET
If you want to see a political wave forming a year before an election, watch the retirements.
They’re often a leading indicator for which direction a party is headed, and so far, 2018 is shaping up ominously for Republicans, who will be defending 40 open House seats this fall compared with the Democrats’ 20. By far the biggest and most consequential retirement announcement came in early April, as Speaker Paul Ryan told his colleagues he would not seek reelection to his House seat.
With primary season well underway, the retirements have slowed to a crawl, but they aren’t quite done. On Tuesday, it was a Democratic rising star, Representative Keith Ellison of Minnesota, who announced he would return home to run for state attorney general and forgo reelection to a seventh term in the House.
Ellison alluded to President Trump in his announcement. “No one—not even the president—is above the law,” he said. “From immigration reform to protecting our air and water, it has never been more important to have a leader as attorney general who can stand up to threats against our neighbors’ health and freedoms.”
First elected in 2006, Ellison had made a name for himself as a leading progressive in the House and as one of just two Muslims in Congress. He co-chaired the Congressional Progressive Caucus and then ran an unsuccessful campaign for chairman of the Democratic National Committee following the 2016 election. Former Labor Secretary Tom Perez defeated him in a hard-fought race and then named Ellison as the DNC’s vice chairman—a post he will keep as he runs for Minnesota attorney general.
Ellison becomes one of several House Democrats blocked from caucus leadership posts who have decided to leave in recent years. Representative Xavier Becerra, the former caucus chairman, accepted an appointment as California’s attorney general in late 2016, and Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland jumped at the chance to run for Senate in 2016. Representative Steve Israel of New York quit elective politics altogether, retiring to write novels and opine from the outside two years ago.
The top three Democrats in the House, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, Whip Steny Hoyer, and Assistant Leader James Clyburn, have held their posts for more than a decade, and despite rumblings for change from younger members of the caucus, they want to stay after the November election as well.
Ellison’s decision should have no impact on the House majority; his district is solidly Democratic. And overall, far more Republicans are leaving Congress voluntarily than Democrats, putting the party’s control of the chamber in jeopardy. Several veteran Republican lawmakers in competitive districts are calling it quits, depriving the GOP of the advantage of incumbency in races that could determine control of the House in 2019. And a few more retirements could be on the way, as lawmakers make their final decisions about running ahead of their respective primaries.
At the same time, a wave of allegations of sexual harassment and other inappropriate behavior has scrambled the retirement picture in both parties, and it’s forced several lawmakers to leave Congress early. Republican Representatives Patrick Meehan of Pennsylvania and Joe Barton of Texas, and Democratic Representative Ruben Kihuen of Nevada have abandoned reelection campaigns after misconduct allegations. Scandals have already forced the immediate resignations of Democratic Senator Al Franken and long-serving
