- The Experience
- The Programs
- MBA Program
- MSx Program
- PhD Program
- Executive Education
- Stanford Ignite
- Research Fellows Program
- Summer Institute for General Management
- Stanford LEAD Certificate: Corporate Innovation
- Stanford Innovation & Entrepreneurship Certificate
- Executive Program for Nonprofit Leaders
- Executive Program in Social Entrepreneurship
- Executive Program for Education Leaders
- Stanford go.to.market
- Faculty & Research
- Insights
- Alumni
- Events
You are here
Capital Market Prices, Management Forecasts, and Earnings Management
Capital Market Prices, Management Forecasts, and Earnings Management
The Accounting Review.
2009, Vol. 84, Issue 6, Pages 1713-1747
I analyze a manager's optimal earnings forecasting strategy and optimal earnings management policy in a setting where both the mean and the variance of the distribution generating the firm's cash flows are unknown. The analysis shows that the equilibrium price of the firm is a function of the manager's forecast, the firm's reported earnings, and the squared error in the manager's earnings forecast. The model contains several predictions, including: (1) the manager manipulates earnings to reduce his forecast error at the earnings announcement date; (2) the firm's stock price is more sensitive to the firm's actual earnings announcement than to the manager's forecast; and (3) controlling for the level of reported earnings and the magnitude of the earnings surprise, the firm's price is higher when it has a positive surprise at the earnings announcement date than when it has a negative surprise.