M Elisabeth Pate-Cornell

All Publications

• Probabilistic Analysis of the Effect of Resource Constraints on System Safety: Towing Failures During the Construction of Concrete Platforms Paté-Cornell, M., E., Rettedal, W.
• Warning Systems for Engineering Projects Paté-Cornell, M., E.
• Review of the Prince William Sound Risk Assessment Study Committee on Risk Assessment and Management for Marine Systems (national Research Council, Marine Board). Paté-Cornell, M., E., Ahearne, J. Chair of the committee, co-author of several sections. National Academy Press, Washington D.C.. : 1
• Games and Risk Analysis: Three examples of single and alternate moves Game theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Bier, V., Azaiez, M., N. Springer Pub, New York.. : 147-175
• Project Fox: near-earth objects impact risk Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
• On risk analysis models for engineered systems using Bayesian methods Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
• Recalibrating risks: reactions to Three-Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
• Counter-terrorism modeling: anticipating an attack Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
• On black swans and perfect storms Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
• Decisions, risks, and games involving intelligent actors Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
• An Engineering Risk Analysis perspective on “black swans” and “perfect storms: taking avoiding and managing the risks of rare events” Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
• The illusion of classical validation for counter-terrorism models: verification and justification of variables and data Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
• The tiger under the bed Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
• Games, Risks, and Analytics: Several Illustrative Cases Involving National Security and Management Situations DECISION ANALYSIS Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2012; 9 (2): 186-203

  View details for DOI 10.1287/deca.1120.0241

  View details for Web of Science ID 000305308400012

• Insolvencies in the American Property and Casualty Insurance Industry: a System's Approach Risk and Decision Analysis Deleris, L., A., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012; 3: 3-18
• Risk and Decision Analysis: Academic Experience and Current Research Epstein Institute invited seminar series, University of Southern California. Los Angeles, CA. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
• Some remarks on uncertainty, model complexity and the risks of no risk analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
• Tsunami design criteria for the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant: an inquiry driven by curiosity Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
• Risk Management in Game Situations: Principal-agent and adversarial examples Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
• The risks of no risk analysis: The choice of a tsunami design criterion for the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
• Solar storms: Impact on cascading power grid failures A simple model and illustration Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
• Effects of sever space weather on cascading power failure: an illustrative model and policy implications Larrosa, C., Kaneshiro, L., Zhao, J., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
• Systems, risks and games analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
• Risk analysis in the systems engineering context a few examples and comments on Fukushima Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
• A probabilistic framework for tactical warnings: inferring localized drug violence Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
• Risk Management in Game Situations: Principal-agent, Adversarial and Cooperation Examples MIT, Engineering Systems Division Lecture Series, Cambridge MA. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
• Analysis of National Strategies to Counter a Country's Nuclear Weapons Program DECISION ANALYSIS Caswell, D. J., Howard, R. A., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2011; 8 (1): 30-45

  View details for DOI 10.1287/deca.1110.0198

  View details for Web of Science ID 000288412500004

• Probabilistic Analysis of a Country's Program to Acquire Nuclear Weapons MILITARY OPERATIONS RESEARCH Caswell, D. J., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2011; 16 (1): 5-20

  View details for DOI 10.5711/108259831615

  View details for Web of Science ID 000290929300001

• Probabilistic Simulation of Multi-stage Decisions for Operation of a Fractionated Satellite Mission Daniels, M., P., Tracey, B., Irvine, J., Schran, W., Pate-Cornell, M., E. 2011
• Report to the Department of Interior: Macondo Well-Deepwater Horizon Blowout: Lessons for Improving Offshore Drilling Safety (Committee member; co-author) National Academy of Engineering Paté-Cornell, M., E. National Academy Press, Washington D.C.. 2011: 1
• Are engineering companies too risk-averse? Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2011
• Improving the service industry: a Stanford perspective Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2011
• Probabilistic Analysis of a Country’s Program to Acquire Nuclear Weapons Military Operations Research Caswell, D., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2011; 16 (1): 5-16
• Space Weather: Impact on cascading power grid failures. A simple model and illustration Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2011
• Risk Analysis: An Alternative to the “Stuff-happens” Philosophy (or words to that effect) Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2011
• From Piper Alpha to Deepwater Horizon: some observations of risk management and regulation in the offshore oil industry Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2011
• Games, Risks and National Security Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2011
• Dynamics in Early Warning and Crisis Management with David Blum, Homeland Security and Advances in Risk Analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2011
• Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept using Monte Carlo Simulation Blum, D., M., Tipphavong, T., L., Rentas, Y., He, X., Wang, Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2010
• Risk analysis when intelligent actors are involved (illustrated by the cases of the failure risks of the tiles of the space shuttle and patient risks in anesthesia), Invited Lecture Series in Systems Engineering, National University of Singapore (NUS). Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2010
• Risks and games: three models and illustrations Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2010
• Fires on Offshore platforms: a risk analysis perspective on Piper Alpha Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2010
• Taking, avoiding and managing risks: An engineering perspective, including experts, games, and a few lessons learned Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2010
• Stage-Gate Process for the Development of Medical Devices JOURNAL OF MEDICAL DEVICES-TRANSACTIONS OF THE ASME Pietzsch, J. B., Shluzas, L. A., Pate-Cornell, M. E., Yock, P. G., Linehan, J. H. 2009; 3 (2)

  View details for DOI 10.1115/1.3148836

  View details for Web of Science ID 000283763700004

• Greener grass and faster lanes On the roots of the brain drain from Europe to the US, Atomium Culture, European Parliament, Brussels, Belgium. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2009
• Probabilistic Risk Assessment The Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Cochran, James, J. Wiley Pub. 2009: 1
• Risks and Games: Intelligent Actors and Fallible Systems Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2009
• Failure Risks in the Insurance Industry: A Quantitative Systems Analysis The Risk Management and Insurance Review Paté-Cornell, M., E., Deleris, L., A. 2009; 12 (2): 199-212
• Risks and Games: Intelligent Actors and Fallible Systems Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2009
• Risks and games: intelligent actors and fallible systems Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2009
• The Iterative Nature of Medical Device Design Shluzas, Lauren, A., Pietzsch, Jan, B., Paté-Cornell, M., Elisabeth, Yock, Paul, G., Linehan, John, H. 2009
• Accident Precursors The Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Cochran, James, J. Wiley Pub. 2009: 1
• Expert opinions in risk analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2009
• Engineering Risk Analysis: Lessons Learned Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2009
• Bayesian assessment of overtriage and undertriage at a level I trauma centre PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES DiDomenico, P. B., Pietzsch, J. B., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2008; 366 (1874): 2265-2277

  Abstract

  We analysed the trauma triage system at a specific level I trauma centre to assess rates of over- and undertriage and to support recommendations for system improvements. The triage process is designed to estimate the severity of patient injury and allocate resources accordingly, with potential errors of overestimation (overtriage) consuming excess resources and underestimation (undertriage) potentially leading to medical errors.We first modelled the overall trauma system using risk analysis methods to understand interdependencies among the actions of the participants. We interviewed six experienced trauma surgeons to obtain their expert opinion of the over- and undertriage rates occurring in the trauma centre. We then assessed actual over- and undertriage rates in a random sample of 86 trauma cases collected over a six-week period at the same centre. We employed Bayesian analysis to quantitatively combine the data with the prior probabilities derived from expert opinion in order to obtain posterior distributions. The results were estimates of overtriage and undertriage in 16.1 and 4.9% of patients, respectively. This Bayesian approach, which provides a quantitative assessment of the error rates using both case data and expert opinion, provides a rational means of obtaining a best estimate of the system's performance. The overall approach that we describe in this paper can be employed more widely to analyse complex health care delivery systems, with the objective of reduced errors, patient risk and excess costs.

  View details for DOI 10.1098/rsta.2008.0036

  View details for Web of Science ID 000256067000003

  View details for PubMedID 18407901

• Early technology assessment of new medical devices INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT IN HEALTH CARE Pietzsch, J. B., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2008; 24 (1): 36-44

  Abstract

  In the United States, medical devices represent an eighty-billion dollar a year market. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration rejects a significant number of applications of devices that reach the investigational stage. The prospects of improving patient condition, as well as firms' profits, are thus substantial, but fraught with uncertainties at the time when investments and design decisions are made. This study presents a quantitative model focused on the risk aspects of early technology assessment, designed to support the decisions of medical device firms in the investment and development stages.The model is based on the engineering risk analysis method involving systems analysis and probability. It assumes use of all evidence available (both direct and indirect) and integrates the information through a linear formula of aggregation of probability distributions. The model is illustrated by a schematic version of the case of the AtrialShaper, a device for the reduction of stroke risk that is currently in the preprototype stage.The results of the modeling provide a more complete description of the evidence base available to support early-stage decisions, thus allowing comparison of alternative designs and management alternatives.The model presented here provides early-stage decision-support to industry, but also benefits regulators and payers in their later assessment of new devices and associated procedures.

  View details for DOI 10.1017/S0266462307080051

  View details for Web of Science ID 000252748100005

  View details for PubMedID 18218167

• Risk Analysis and Game Theory: Three Management and Policy Examples Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2008
• Assessment of Overtriage and Undertriage at a Level I Trauma Centre Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences DiDomenico, P., B., Pietzsch, J., B., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2008: 2265-2277
• Assessing Risks of Terrorist Threats Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2008
• Some Progress in the Analysis of Intelligence Information: Where We Are and Possible Improvements Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2008
• Engineering Risk Analysis IEEE Technology Management Council of Silicon Valley, Sunnyvale CA. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2008
• Risk analysis when several decision makers are involved: policy and management examples FUR XIII, Barcelona, Spain. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2008
• Evidence-based decisions: who says no? provided that the evidence is right Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2007
• Medical Device Development Models Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2007
• Rationality and Imagination: The Engineering Risk Analysis Method and Some Applications Advances in Decision Analysis, Edward Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Miles, E., Winterfeldt, v. Cambridge University Press. 2007: 1
• Engineering Risk Analysis: What we do, how we do it, and why do we do it? IPER 330, Stanford University Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2007
• Probabilistic Risk Analysis vs. Decision Analysis: Similarities, Differences and Illustrations Uncertainty and Risk: Mental, Formal and Experimental Representations Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Abdellaoui, M., Luce, R., D., Machina, M. Springer Pub.. 2007: 223-242
• Review of US Medical Device Regulation Journal of Medical Devices Pietzsch, J., B., Aquino, L., M., Yock, P., G, Paté-Cornell, M., E., Linehan, J., H. 2007; 1: 283-292
• Engineering risk analysis of a hospital oxygen supply system MEDICAL DECISION MAKING Deleris, L. A., Yeo, G. L., Seiver, A., Pate-Cornell, M. 2006; 26 (2): 162-172

  Abstract

  Reports from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations (JCAHO) have emphasized the potential for injury to patients caused by failures in oxygen supply systems. This article presents a model of patient risk related to the process of supplying oxygen at a single university hospital. One of the goals of the article is to illustrate how probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) can be used by hospitals to assess and mitigate risk and, therefore, to meet JCAHO requirements. PRA techniques are useful to 1) model the reliability of a complex system and 2) assess the cost-effectiveness of different risk mitigation measures. The authors focus on the risk estimation step, describing in detail their modeling of the oxygen supply system and analysis of the results. For the hospital that the authors study (20,000 admissions yearly), the total expected number of fatalities from oxygen system failure is 44 over a 30-year time horizon. The greatest contribution to the risk (94% of the expected number of fatalities) comes from problems that involve the supply network (e.g., damage to structure and poisoning) as opposed to incidents that occur inside patient rooms. Although the threat to patient safety is not dramatic, health care organizations should be concerned about potential failures of their oxygen system because improving this system could avoid low-probability, high-consequence failures at a low cost.

  View details for DOI 10.1177/0272989X06286477

  View details for Web of Science ID 000236557400008

  View details for PubMedID 16525170

• Engineering Risk Analysis: Influence of Human and Organizational Factors Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2006
• The Respective Roles of Risk and Decision Analyses in Decision Support Decision Analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E., Dillon, R., L. 2006; 3 (4): 220-232
• Global Financial Analysis (GFA): a Strategic Model of Bankruptcies in the Insurance Industry Deleris, L., A., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2006
• Managing Shortcuts in Engineering Systems and Their Safety Effects: A Management Science Perspective Garber, R., G., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2006
• Probability of infancy problems for space launch vehicles RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY Guikema, S. D., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2005; 87 (3): 303-314

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.ress.2004.06.001

  View details for Web of Science ID 000226311400002

• Including Technical and Security Risks in the Management of Information Systems: A Programmatic Risk Management Model Systems Engineering Dillon, L., R, Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2005; 8 (1): 15-28
• A Bayesian Approach to Iraq's Nuclear Program Intelligence Analysis: A Hypothetical Illustration McLaughlin, J., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2005
• Engineering Risk Analysis for Pro-Active Risk Management Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2005
• Optimal Use of Budget Reserves to Minimize Technical and Management Failure Risks During Complex Project Development IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management Dillon, L., R., Pate-Cornell, M., E., Guikema, S., D. 2005; 52 (3)
• Prospective Evaluation of Management Alternatives in Policy Making: Anesthesia Patient Risk Example Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2005
• Probabilistic Modeling of Terrorist Threats Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2005
• On the limitations of redundancies in the improvement of system reliability RISK ANALYSIS Pate-Cornell, M. E., Dillon, R. L., Guikema, S. D. 2004; 24 (6): 1423-1436

  Abstract

  Some program managers share a common belief that adding a redundant component to a system reduces the probability of failure by half. This is true only if the failures of the redundant components are independent events, which is rarely the case. For example, the redundant components may be subjected to the same external loads. There is, however, in general a decrease in the failure probability of the system. Nonetheless, the redundant element comes at a cost, even if it is less than that of developing the first one when both are based on the same design. Identical parts save the most in terms of design costs, but are subjected to common failure modes from possible design errors that limit the effectiveness of the redundancy. In the development of critical systems, managers thus need to decide if the costs of a parallel system are justified by the increase in the system's reliability. NASA, for example, has used redundant spacecraft to increase the chances of mission success, which worked well in the cases of the Viking and Voyager missions. These two successes, however, do not guarantee future ones. We present here a risk analysis framework accounting for dependencies to support the decision to launch at the same time a twin mission of identical spacecraft, given incremental costs and risk-reduction benefits of the second one. We illustrate this analytical approach with the case of the Mars Exploration Rovers launched by NASA in 2003, for which we had performed this assessment in 2001.

  View details for Web of Science ID 000226235800003

  View details for PubMedID 15660601

• Dynamic modeling of the tradeoff between productivity and safety in critical engineering systems RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY Cowing, M. M., Pate-Cornell, M. E., Glynn, P. W. 2004; 86 (3): 269-284

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.ress.2004.02.003

  View details for Web of Science ID 000224648300008

• Managing technology development for safety-critical systems IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT Sachon, M., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2004; 51 (4): 451-461

  View details for DOI 10.1109/TEM.2004.835086

  View details for Web of Science ID 000224657600011

• Organizational warning systems: A probabilistic approach to optimal design IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT Lakats, L. M., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2004; 51 (2): 183-196

  View details for DOI 10.1109/TEM.2003.822460

  View details for Web of Science ID 000221046900007

• Bayesian analysis of launch vehicle success rates JOURNAL OF SPACECRAFT AND ROCKETS Guikema, S. D., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2004; 41 (1): 93-102

  View details for Web of Science ID 000189156900011

• Risk Analysis vs. Decision Analysis: Methods and Applications Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004
• On signals, response, and risk mitigation: a probabilistic approach to the detection and analysis of precursors In Accident Precursor Analysis and Management, Proceedings of the National Academy of Engineering Workshop on Precursors Paté-Cornell, M., E. National Academy Press, Washington D.C.. 2004: 45-59
• Risk Analysis for Monitoring and Diagnosis of Problems in the Automotive Industry Paté-Cornell, M., E., Han, B., Christopher 2004
• Risks of Terrorist Attacks: Probabilistic Assessment and Use of Intelligence Information Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004
• Risk Analysis for Monitoring and Diagnosis of Problems in the Automotive Industry CONVERGENCE 2004 (auto. industry), Detroit, MI. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004
• A Framework for Probabilistic Assessment of New Medical Technologies Pietzsch, J., B., Paté-Cornell, M., E., Krummel, T., M. 2004
• The role of probabilistic risk analysis and decision analysis in the development process of large complex systems Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004
• Risk Costs for New Dams: Economic Analysis and Effects of Monitoring The Economics of Natural Hazards Paté-Cornell, M., E., Tagaras, G. edited by Kunreuther, H., Rose, A. The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, An Elgar Reference Collection, Northampton, MA.. 2004: 461-470
• Organizational Warnings and System Safety: A Probabilistic Analysis IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management Lakats, M., L., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004; 51 (2): 183-196
• Engineering Risk Analysis and Management Boeing Engineering Leadership Lecture Series, Boeing, Saint Louis, Missouri. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004
• Engineering Systems and systems engineering in the MS&E department at Stanford University Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004
• Optimal Redundancy for Series Systems: a Value-maximizing Approach Garber, R., G., Hatfield, J., W., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004
• A ProbabilisticAnalysis of the “Infancy Problem” of Space Launch Vehicles Paté-Cornell, M., E., Guikema, S., D. 2004
• Analyzing Losses from Hazard Exposures: a Conservative Probabilistic Estimate Using Supply Chain Risk Simulation Elkins, D., Deleris, L., A., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004
• On Signals, Response, and Risk Mitigation: a Probabilistic Approach to Precursors’ Detection and Analysis Accident Precursor Analysis and Management,: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence, Proceedings of the NAE workshop on Precursors, Phimister Paté-Cornell, M., E. National Academy Press. 2004: 45-59
• Modeling the effects of dispersion of design teams on system failure risk JOURNAL OF SPACECRAFT AND ROCKETS Garber, R., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2004; 41 (1): 60-68

  View details for Web of Science ID 000189156900007

• Risk chair for concurrent design engineering: Satellite swarm illustration JOURNAL OF SPACECRAFT AND ROCKETS Benjamin, J. L., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2004; 41 (1): 51-59

  View details for Web of Science ID 000189156900006

• Programmatic risk analysis for critical engineering systems under tight resource constraints OPERATIONS RESEARCH Dillon, R. L., Pate-Cornell, M. E., Guikema, S. D. 2003; 51 (3): 354-370

  View details for Web of Science ID 000183367600002

• On the tiles of the space shuttle: a risk analysis in 1990 and the Columbia accident of 2003 Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2003
• Assessment and Ranking of Terrorist Threat: a Risk-Analytic Approach Marine Board of the NRC, Washington D.C. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2003
• Threat Assessment and Prioritization: a Risk Analysis Approach Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2003
• A Probabilistic Approach to Precursors' Detection and Analysis in Risk Management Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2003
• On the tiles of the Space Shuttle: estimating the risks and following up Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2003
• Bayesian Analysis of Launch Vehicle Reliability Guikema, D., Seth, Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2003
• Terrorism Threat Assessment and Prioritization: A Risk Analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2003
• Component choice for managing risk in engineered systems with generalized risk/cost functions RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY Guikema, S. D., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2002; 78 (3): 227-238

  View details for Web of Science ID 000179993500002

• Assessment of the Effects of Biases on the Performance of a Portfolio of Missions International Journal of Aerospace Management Guikema, S., D., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2002; 1 (4): 339-351
• Probabilistic Modeling of Terrorist Threats: a Systems Analysis Approach to Setting Priorities Among Countermeasures Military Operations Research Paté-Cornell, M., E., Guikema, S., D. 2002; 7 (4)
• Optimization of System and Compoennt Reinforcement with Discrete Risk/Cost Functions Guikema, S., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2002
• Assessment of the Benefits of Anesthesia Patient Risk Reduction Measures: a Systems Analysis Approach Based on Probability Handbook of Operations Research/Management Science Applications in Health Care Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Pierskalla, W., Sainfort, F., Brandeau, M. Kluwer Pub. 2002: 1
• Quantitative Risk Analysis: Why, when, and how? Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2002
• Principles of Quantitative Risk Analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2002
• An Overarching Systems (Risk) Analysis Model for Threat Assessment. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2002
• Early Technology Assessment of New Medical Devices and Procedures: A Systems Analysis Approach Using Probabilistic Modeling Jan, B., Pietzsch, Krummel, T., M., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2002
• Success factors and future challenges in the management of faster-better-cheaper projects: Lessons learned from NASA IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT Pate-Cornell, M. E., Dillon, R. L. 2001; 48 (1): 25-35

  View details for Web of Science ID 000167742900002

• Risk and Uncertainty Analysis in Government Safety Decisions Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2001
• The danger of myopic conservatism in risk analysis: the problem of time allocation for the deep space network Guikema, S., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2001
• Programmatic Risk Analysis to Search for Life on Mars Paté-Cornell, M., E., Dillon, R., L. 2001
• Managing Technology in the Information Age: Stanford’s New Department of Management Science and Engineering International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, (IJTPM) Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2001; 1 (2): 160-173
• Introducing a Risk Chair in Concurrent Design Engineering and Satellite Swarm Illustration Benjamin, J., L., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2001
• APRAM: An Advanced Programmatic Risk Analysis Method International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management (IJTPM) Dillon, L., R., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2001; 1 (1): 47-65
• Management of Post-industrial Systems: Academic Challenges and the Stanford Experience International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, (IJTPM) Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2001; 1 (2): 151-159
• Safety and productivity trade-offs: managing nuclear reactor outages INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT Baron, M. M., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2000; 19 (3-5): 420-438

  View details for Web of Science ID 000086492900014

• Can Faster-Better-Cheaper Work? Challenges and Recommendations for the Management of Future Space Missions Paté-Cornell, M., E., Dillon, R., L. 2000
• Global Risk Management Environmental Risk Planning and Management Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Turner, B. 2000: 1
• Advanced Programmatic Risk Analysis for Programs of Dependent Projects Involving Critical Systems, and Unmanned Space Mission Illustration Paté-Cornell, M., E., Dillon, R., L. edited by Kondo, S., Furuta, K. 2000
• Greed and Ignorance: Motivations and Illustrations of the Quantification of Major Risks Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2000
• Managing Technology in the Information Age: The New Department of Management Science and Engineering at Stanford University Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2000
• Conditional uncertainty analysis and implications for decision making: The case of WIPP RISK ANALYSIS Pate-Cornell, M. E. 1999; 19 (5): 995-1002

  Abstract

  Uncertainty analyses and the reporting of their results can be misinterpreted when these analyses are conditional on a set of assumptions generally intended to bring some conservatism in the decisions. In this paper, two cases of conditional uncertainty analysis are examined. The first case includes studies that result, for instance, in a family of risk curves representing percentiles of the probability distribution of the future frequency of exceeding specified consequence levels conditional on a set of hypotheses. The second case involves analyses that result in an interval of outcomes estimated on the basis of conservative assumptions. Both types of results are difficult to use because they are sometimes misinterpreted as if they represented the output of a full uncertainty analysis. In the first case, the percentiles shown on each risk curve may be taken at face value when in reality (in marginal terms) they are lower if the chosen hypotheses are conservative. In the second case, the fact that some segments of the resulting interval are highly unlikely--or that some more benign segments outside the range of results are quite possible--does not appear. Also, these results are difficult to compare to those of analyses of other risks, possibly competing for the same risk management resources, and the decision criteria have to be adapted to the conservatism of the hypotheses. In this paper, the focus is on the first type (conditional risk curves) more than on the second and the discussion is illustrated by the case of the performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. For policy-making purposes, however, the problems of interpretation, comparison, and use of the results are similar.

  View details for Web of Science ID 000083825000013

  View details for PubMedID 10765442

• Risk assessment based on financial data: Market response to airline accidents RISK ANALYSIS Dillon, R. L., Johnson, B. E., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 1999; 19 (3): 473-486

  View details for Web of Science ID 000082303800014

• Designing risk-management strategies for critical engineering systems IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT Baron, M. M., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 1999; 46 (1): 87-100

  View details for Web of Science ID 000078191800008

• Global Trends in the Management of Post-industrial Systems: Academic Challenges and the Stanford Experience Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1999
• Medical Application of Engineering Risk Analysis and Anesthesia Patient Risk Illustration American Journal of Therapeutics Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1999; 6 (5): 245-255
• Airline Maintenance vs Flight Delays: Probabilistic Methods and Risk Management for Accidents That Have Not Happened Yet Paté-Cornell, M., E., Sachon, M. 1999
• Challenges and Recommendations for the Management of Faster-Better-Cheaper Space Missions Dillon, R., L., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1999
• Dynamic risk management systems: Hybrid architecture and offshore platform illustration RISK ANALYSIS Pate-Cornell, M. E., Regan, P. J. 1998; 18 (4): 485-496

  View details for Web of Science ID 000076284000015

• Diagnostic anténatal: doutes À visage différent: l’alliance thérapeutique autour de l’enfant meurtri Paté-Cornell, M., E. Michel Serres and André Chancholle Eds.Hermann Pub., Paris, France. 1998: 1
• Anesthesia patient risk: A quantitative approach to organizational factors and risk management options RISK ANALYSIS PATECORNELL, M. E., Lakats, L. M., Murphy, D. M., Gaba, D. M. 1997; 17 (4): 511-523

  Abstract

  The risk of death or brain damage to anesthesia patients is relatively low, particularly for healthy patients in modern hospitals. When an accident does occur, its cause is usually an error made by the anesthesiologist, either in triggering the accident sequence, or failing to take timely corrective measures. This paper presents a pilot study which explores the feasibility of extending probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of anesthesia accidents to assess the effects of human and management components on the patient risk. We develop first a classic PRA model for the patient risk per operation. We then link the probabilities of the different accident types to their root causes using a probabilistic analysis of the performance shaping factors. These factors are described here as the "state of the anesthesiologist" characterized both in terms of alertness and competence. We then analyze the effects of different management factors that affect the state of the anesthesiologist and we compute the risk reduction benefits of several risk management policies. Our data sources include the published version of the Australian Incident Monitoring Study as well as expert opinions. We conclude that patient risk could be reduced substantially by closer supervision of residents, the use of anesthesia simulators both in training and for periodic recertification, and regular medical examinations for all anesthesiologists.

  View details for Web of Science ID A1997XZ03600014

  View details for PubMedID 9323876

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