Poor Jeb

The shrug Jeb Bush gave at the moment he announced he was suspending his campaign captured all pathos he has embodied these last few weeks. Sad in a very human way. Watch.

Did Trump Finally Move Us Past Sept. 11?

Countless reasons why Trump's frontrunner status is stunning, unexpected, earth-shaking and all the rest. But I can't get past the fact that they guy who won New Hampshire and South Carolina openly and sneeringly bucked GOP orthodoxy on George W. Bush's 9/11 record. I didn't expect any Republican candidate to do that in my lifetime and win.

Time to Face Facts

What's the number of times one Republican has scored dominating victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina and then gone on to lose the nomination? Exactly. Never. And this isn't some kind of special magic to one state or even group of states. Though it was disappointing against expectations, even the second place showing in Iowa confirms the general narrative. Yes, things could change. Nothing is certain in politics. But it's time to dispense with any faith-based logic that disputes the fact that Donald Trump is now the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination. Overwhelming.

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That Didn't Take Long

After a lot of fake drama at the top of the hour, the cable nets are projecting a Trump win in South Carolina. The focus in the initial coverage was "three-way race" and "top-tier candidates" but Trump won. Period. The silly notion of strong third place finishes and dominating second place showings and related pablum should not obscure that Trump just won in core Republican, white, Southern, religious South Carolina. So much for New York values.

Interesting ...

Poll just closed in South Carolina. CNN and MSNBC say the GOP primary there is a three-way race that is too close to call among Trump, Cruz and Rubio. That's not what was expected with Trump dominating in South Carolina polling for weeks. His numbers had softened in that last few days a bit, but he still held a 14 pt lead in the TPM PollTracker Average.

Full South Carolina results here.

Clinton Wins Nevada

It's looking like Bernie Sanders pushed Hillary Clinton harder in Nevada than anyone would have expected just a few weeks ago, but she has prevailed in what really was a crucial win for her. A loss wouldn't have decided the nomination, or even come close, but it would have seriously undermined her claim, indeed her campaign's whole rationale, that she has broader and deeper appeal with core Democratic Party constituencies than Sanders does, constituencies that were not well represented in the heavily white first two primary contests. More on Clinton's win.

Live Results

Live Nevada Dem Caucus results right here.

Could Rubes Rise from the Dead on the Third State?

It's genuinely worrisome. Could Marco Rubio make a come-from-behind showing in South Carolina? As I said a few days ago, establishment Republicans won't let Marco Rubio go down, no matter how many times he stumbles.

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Amazing

Here's Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who had been wavering slightly on the nomination issue, parroting the same moronic nonsense about the tradition of presidents not nominating Supreme Court Justices during an election year - the same nonsensical bullshit we discussed in this post with Marco Rubio.

I urge Pres. Obama to follow a tradition embraced by both parties and allow his successor to select the next Supreme Court justice. (4/5)

— Sen. Lisa Murkowski (@lisamurkowski) February 19, 2016

It is genuinely amazing the kind of lockstep fealty the GOP can muster, getting non-comatose members of Congress to publicly say things that are completely nonsensical with a straight face. They're like derptonian robots.

The only positive thing is reading the Twitter thread will restore some of your faith in humanity. It actually kept me laughing for a good ten minutes. Seriously, it's choice and hilarious.

Rubes on the Court: A Scatological Close Read

This is a small part of the larger avalanche of truthy non-facts about the rules for nominating Supreme Court Justices. But particularly because of the speaker, Marco Rubio's comments are worth looking at closely. As a repeater rather than originator of ideas, spin and so forth, his words give us an up-close view of the alchemical process through which bullshit and nonsense are transformed into readily accepted viewpoints that journalists are apparently incapable of not accepting as actual ideas.

As we've discussed, since quite a lot is at stake in the replacement of Justice Antonin Scalia, Republicans have decided to go to the entirely unprecedented step of refusing to hold a confirmation vote on President Obama's nominee, on the hope that a Republican will win the presidency in 2016 and thus avoid changing the composition of the Court.

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LOL, Nerds

Speaker Paul Ryan tries to match Trump for Scots cred and self-awareness by issuing call to "unite the [GOP] clans" to fight for "freeeedoooom."

My Two Big Revelations

I learned one thing and remembered another from last night's Trump townhall, especially from the latter 10 or 20 minutes of it. The first is that Trump has friggin' huge eyebrows. I'm not sure how I missed this. But they're huge -- and yuuuuuuge, I guess. I'm not sure how I didn't know this before.

Evidence

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Townhall

Donald Trump seemed eerily rational and human in the last 15 minutes of that townhall interview.

Cruz Fake Photo Controversy is Bogus

This is a painful moment. I need to defend Ted Cruz and his campaign. I didn't think it would ever get to this point. But it has. So here goes.

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Constitutiony

The Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee is fundraising off plan to refuse to hold hearings on Obama Court nominee. Email text after the jump ...

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