Communities & Environment > Research > Forecasts & Projections
Forecasts and Projections
ABAG's history of developing forecasts for the region spans a period of over four decades, with a report titled Projections. For each Projections cycle, the research group prepares a forecast of population, households and economic activity in the San Francisco Bay Area. The forecasts include a time frame of roughly 25 years into the future. The Projections document distributes population, households and employment throughout the region based on a combination of economic relationships and policy factors. Projections 2013 data is available by county, city, and census tract levels.
Bay Area Regional Projections |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographics | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
| Population | 7,150,739 | 7,461,400 | 7,786,800 | 8,134,000 | 8,496,800 | 8,889,000 | 9,299,100 |
| Household Population | 7,003,059 | 7,307,400 | 7,623,700 | 7,961,900 | 8,313,900 | 8,690,400 | 9,084,800 |
| Households | 2,608,023 | 2,720,410 | 2,837,680 | 2,952,910 | 3,072,920 | 3,188,330 | 3,308,090 |
| Persons Per Household | 2.69 | 2.69 | 2.69 | 2.70 | 2.71 | 2.73 | 2.75 |
| Employed Residents | 3,268,680 | 3,547,310 | 3,849,790 | 3,949,620 | 4,052,020 | 4,198,400 | 4,350,070 |
| Jobs | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
| Agriculture & Natural Resources | 24,640 | 25,180 | 25,690 | 24,800 | 23,940 | 23,330 | 22,750 |
| Construction | 142,350 | 168,380 | 197,560 | 203,280 | 209,150 | 217,080 | 225,290 |
| Manufacturing & Wholesale | 460,170 | 473,360 | 486,720 | 476,580 | 467,010 | 461,330 | 456,080 |
| Retail | 335,930 | 352,550 | 370,260 | 372,210 | 374,060 | 379,210 | 384,420 |
| Transportation & Utilities | 98,710 | 108,320 | 119,080 | 120,650 | 122,090 | 124,760 | 127,360 |
| Information | 121,070 | 134,550 | 149,640 | 150,890 | 152,130 | 154,720 | 157,330 |
| Financial & Leasing | 186,070 | 204,730 | 225,520 | 226,770 | 227,680 | 230,880 | 233,790 |
| Professional & Managerial Services | 596,740 | 678,230 | 771,560 | 814,300 | 859,260 | 914,710 | 973,640 |
| Health & Educational Services | 447,720 | 497,070 | 553,680 | 584,230 | 616,620 | 656,290 | 698,610 |
| Arts, Recreation & Other Services | 472,930 | 519,020 | 570,160 | 589,000 | 608,420 | 633,960 | 660,570 |
| Government | 498,970 | 508,600 | 517,280 | 526,610 | 536,220 | 550,550 | 565,390 |
| Total Jobs | 3,385,300 | 3,669,990 | 3,987,150 | 4,089,320 | 4,196,580 | 4,346,820 | 4,505,230 |
| Sources: 2010 demographic data are taken directly from the U.S. Census. 2010 employment data are derived from California County-Level Economic Forecast, 2011-2040, California Department of Transportation; Bay Area Job Growth to 2040: Projections and Analysis, Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy; 1989-2009 National Establishment Times-Series (NETS) Database, Walls & Associates using Dun and Bradstreet data; and labor force data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau's 2005-2009 American Community Survey. | |||||||
With the passage of SB 375, ABAG's forecast has become a part of Plan Bay Area, a joint effort led by ABAG and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) in partnership with the Bay Area's other two regional government agencies, the Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD) and the Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC). The most recent projections series, Projections 2013, distributes activity in conformance with expected development patterns described in Plan Bay Area to the year 2040.