John H. Cochrane

Senior Fellow
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Biography: 

John H. Cochrane is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and an adjunct scholar of the CATO Institute. 

Before joining Hoover, Cochrane was  a Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, and earlier at its Economics Department. Cochrane earned a bachelor’s degree in physics at MIT and his PhD in economics at the University of California at Berkeley. He was a junior staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers (1982–83).

Cochrane’s recent publications include the book Asset Pricing and articles on dynamics in stock and bond markets, the volatility of exchange rates, the term structure of interest rates, the returns to venture capital, liquidity premiums in stock prices, the relation between stock prices and business cycles, and option pricing when investors can’t perfectly hedge. His monetary economics publications include articles on the relationship between deficits and inflation, the effects of monetary policy, and the fiscal theory of the price level. He has also written articles on macroeconomics, health insurance, time-series econometrics, financial regulation, and other topics. He was a coauthor of The Squam Lake Report. His Asset Pricing PhD class is available online via Coursera. 

Cochrane frequently contributes editorial opinion essays to the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg.com, and other publications. He maintains the Grumpy Economist blog.

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Recent Commentary

Analysis and Commentary

Five Million Thanks

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Friday, September 18, 2015

OK, it's not Marginal Revolution. It's not even tops in my own family -- My kids' high-school animation videos do better (8 million here, 5.8 million here). But this blog has worked out far better than I hoped when I started, and I appreciate all of you who read, comment, or otherwise participate.

Interest Rates
Featured

The Fed Needn’t Rush To ‘Normalize’

by John H. Cochrane via The Wall Street Journal
Thursday, September 17, 2015

Unemployment is 5.1%, inflation is low, and near-zero interest rates have proved innocuous, but the Federal Reserve officials will decide Thursday whether to raise interest rates ever so slightly or stand pat, with pundits opining loudly in both directions.

Analysis and Commentary

WSJ Oped, Director's Cut

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Wednesday, September 16, 2015

The outcomes we desire from monetary policy are about as good as one could hope.

Analysis and Commentary

Conundrum Redux

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Tuesday, September 15, 2015

FT's Alphaville has an excellent post by Matthew Klein on long-term interest rates, organized around Greenspan's "conundrum." The "conundrum" was that Greenspan couldn't control long term rates as he wished. Long rates do not always track short rates or Fed pronouncements. As the post nicely shows, it was ever thus.

Analysis and Commentary

Two For Growth

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Monday, September 14, 2015

I saw two very nice, short views on growth: John Taylor Can We Restart This Recovery All Over Again? and Andy Atkeson, Lee Ohanian, and William E. Simon, Jr., 4% Economic Growth? Yes, We Can Achieve That.

Featured

Sargent On Friedman

by John H. Cochrane featuring Thomas J. Sargent, Milton Friedmanvia Grumpy Economist
Friday, September 11, 2015

I ran across a little gem by Tom Sargent, "The Evolution of Monetary Policy Rules." Alas, it's gated in the JEDC so you'll need a university IP address to read it, and I haven't found a free copy. It's a transcript of a talk, so doesn't have Tom's usual prose polish, but insightful nonetheless.

Analysis and Commentary

Cheaper Sugar

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Thursday, September 10, 2015

A nice trade epigram from David Henderson: I don't think Trump understands that when we open trade to other countries, we gain not just as exporters but as consumers. But then, what U.S. politician running for president does?

Analysis and Commentary

Historical Fiction

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Thursday, September 3, 2015

Steve Williamson has a very nice post "Historical Fiction", rebutting the claim, largely by Paul Krugman, that the late 1970s Keynesian macroeconomics with adaptive expectations was vindicated in describing the Reagan-Volker era disinflation.

Analysis and Commentary

Whither Inflation?

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Monday, August 31, 2015

Note: This post uses mathjax to display equations and has several graphs. I've noticed that the blog gets picked up here and there and mangled along the way. If you can't read it or see the graphs, come back to the original .

Analysis and Commentary

Phillips Art

by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Monday, August 24, 2015

The Wall Street Journal gets a prize for Art in Economics for their Phillips curve article. Abstract expressionist division, not contemporary realism, alas.

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Current Online Courses

Asset Pricing, Part 1, via Coursera and the University of Chicago

This course is part one of a two-part introductory survey of graduate-level academic asset pricing. We will focus on building the intuition and deep understanding of how the theory works, how to use it, and how to connect it to empirical facts. This first part builds the basic theoretical and empirical tools around some classic facts. The second part delves more deeply into applications and empirical evaluation. Learn more. . .