Long-Term impact of Obama’s Immigration Action

Friday, December 19, 2014

President Obama announced executive action about how the U.S. would enforce immigration law on November 20, 2014.  We asked a panel of 39 immigration policy experts to review the long-term impacts.

The likely long-term effects of President Obama's executive action if not overturned:

The economic effects of the President’s executive actions on immigration are likely to be muted. That opinion was expressed in multiple comments by our panel, but the mixed effects are revealed in our survey’s fifth question.  Although the effect on GDP is considered positive by more than two-thirds of respondents, and the effect on immigrant wages will likely increase, the biggest impact may well be that the actions will lead to even more – not less – illegal immigration in the long term. The effect on unemployment overall will still be neutral according to two-thirds of the panel.

Would the President’s actions lead to a higher labor force participation rate? The Council of Economic Advisors made that assumption as the key to its projection that the actions would enhance the U.S. economy.  Only 38 percent of our experts agree that labor force participation would be improved.

For the full list of surveyed experts, click here.