Beyond Mopane worms: Zimbabwe's prospects for economic growth under climate variability

Mopane worms are traditionally offered to foreigners visiting Zimbabwe as a welcoming snack. The worms are hand-picked from mopane trees in the wild. Now, climate modelers are projecting an expansion of mopane forest in Zimbabwe, but at the expense of other natural forest species, such as miombo and baikiaea.
 
More mopani trees may not necessarily mean an increased abundance of mopane worm, of course—there may be other factors to consider. But, while a potential increase in tasty, welcoming mopane worms doesn’t seem like a bad deal, the warmer and drier climate that suits mopane forest expansion is, in fact, a warning sign: Zimbabwe is becoming a climate change hotspot.
 
Facing the threat…
 
Climate change hotspots are zones where strong signals about the climate come together with high concentrations of vulnerable people present. Global Circulation Models (GCM) provide estimates of trends that show consistent warming in Southern Africa. For Zimbabwe, most GCMs predict drying and reduced precipitation. This is particularly worrying because about 80% of the country’s rural population is dependent on rain-fed agriculture, making it highly vulnerable to the fallout of climate change.

Changes in climate variables, coupled with the extreme poverty and vulnerability of the country’s rural populations can result in climate change having a disproportionate socio-economic impact on them, as well as multi-sectoral effects.
 
Warmer and drier climatic trends in Zimbabwe would lead to declining yields for major crops, and a reduction in river run-off and reservoir capacity. Less rain, or decreased precipitation, would restrict the potential for hydro-electric power and water supply. Shared resources, like the Zambezi River Basin, would be hampered by reduced rain, triggering resource constraints on a broader regional scale. 
 
…by looking ahead
 
Faced with these threats, the Government of Zimbabwe has increased its efforts to address climate risks strategically. It has developed a National Climate Change Response Strategy. The Cabinet also recently adopted a National Climate Policy (NCP), integral to the integration of the government’s broader actions.
 
With the support of the Zimbabwe Reconstruction Fund, and through the Climate Change Technical Assistance Program (ZIM-CLIM), the country is doing a number of things, such as advancing its Nationally Determined Contributions’ implementation framework; developing approaches to investments in mainstream climate change; revising its agroecological zones; and developing a strategy to mobilize climate finance.
 
ZIM-CLIM has identified these strategic areas for investment:

• Scale-up climate resilient irrigation and water management infrastructure through targeted rehabilitation of on-farm reservoirs, as well as solar-powered water pumping and irrigation systems.
• Enhance landscape management practices for increased climate resilience, land productivity, and improved livelihoods.    
• Increase deployment of renewable energy (solar and wind) and improve energy efficiency to reduce pressure on large, shared hydro resources to reduce the risks of economic shocks linked to energy shortages.
• Strengthen climate services, such as hydro meteorological institutions to improve the production, management, and analysis of the information needed to manage climate variability and natural disasters. 

Zimbabwe has multiple challenges to overcome to achieve a trajectory of sustained economic growth. By integrating the possible effects of climate change into every facet of resource development, its government is trying to improve the country’s changes of economic recovery and reconstruction.