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Weekend Estimates: Safe House and The Vow Neck-and-Neck for Presidents' Day Honors

A tight battle is brewing for box office honors this weekend, based on the studios' Sunday estimates. Safe House is currently ahead, with Universal predicting a $24 million 3-day weekend. The Vow runs in second place with $23.6 million according to Sony, which also has Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance in third place with $22 million. Adding to the uncertainty, the most family-friendly film in the top ten, Journey 2: Mysterious Island is only a few million back, with Warner Bros. projecting it will make $20.1 million through Sunday. Overall, it looks as though Safe House will win both the 3-day and 4-day races, although Journey 2 could win Monday. More...

- 3-Day Weekend Estimates

Weekend Preview

We enter Presidents Day long weekend with a substantial lead on 2011. (Although we are way behind 2010's and even 2009's pace. I choose to focus on the positive.) There are some good signs going into this weekend. Depending on who you talk to, there are two or three films that could hit $20 million over the three-day weekend and five or six that could reach $10 million. The best new release of the week, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance could make more than $30 million over three days and $40 million over four. There is some bad news, as this weekend last year was also pretty potent with six films earning more than $10 million over the three-day weekend. However, 2012 has better strength at the top, which should help it earn yet another win. More...

Full weekend coverage:
- Is the Box Office Back with a Vengeance?
- Weekend Theater Counts
- New Contest: Apart From the Crowd
- Don't forget to enter our Predict the Oscars contest!

Trailers for this weekend's new releases:
- Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance
- This Means War
- The Secret World of Arietty

Most popular trailers this week:
- Chronicle
- Star Wars: The Phantom Menace
- Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance
- The Avengers
- The Amazing Spider-Man

International Box Office: Journey to the Top

Journey 2: The Mysterious Island climbed into first place with $30.0 million on 8,580 screens in 30 markets for a total of $79.20 million. To put this into perspective, its predecessor made $140 million in total, which is a figure this film could match, even if it didn't have any additional markets left to open in. Its biggest opening this weekend was in China where it earned $9.5 million, while it was also a big hit in Russia with $6.97 million on 1,021 screens. The film debuts in France and Spain this weekend, and has yet to open in Italy, Germany, Japan, and other markets. More...

- The Numbers Weekly World Chart

Blu-ray Sales: In the Driver's Seat

New releases dominated the Blu-ray sales chart with as many as four in the top five. (Transformers: Dark of the Moon is a bit of an odd case, but more on that in a second.) Drive led the way with 420,000 units / $8.39 million giving it an opening week Blu-ray share of 57%. This is a great opening compared to the film's theatrical run. More...

- The Numbers' Weekly DVD Sales Chart
- New: The Numbers' Weekly Blu-ray Sales Chart
- Top-Selling DVDs of 2011

DVD and Blu-ray Releases for February 14th, 2012

It's a really slow week at the box office with only one first run release, The Rum Diary, and it bombed in theaters. Paranormal Activity 3 is coming out on DVD this week, but it came out on Blu-ray a few weeks ago, so it is not much of a factor in terms of sales this week. In fact, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 will likely lead the sales charts, despite coming out on Saturday. As for the best of the new releases, Take Shelter on DVD or Blu-ray is probably the best, but I'm still waiting for the screener to confirm that. More...

- Home Market Release Schedule

This Week's Video Reviews:
- Nurse Jackie: Season Three
- Weeds: Season Seven
- The Penguins of Madagascar: Operation Get Ducky
- Dinosaur Train: Eggstravaganza
- The Adventures Of Chuck And Friends: Friends To The Finish
- Dora the Explorer: Dora's Easter Adventure

2012 Preview: February

2012 got off to a great start, with January earning four wins in a row in the year-over-year comparison and finishing the month with a double-digit lead over 2011's pace. This has made me very hopeful going forward. That said, there are fourteen films opening wide or being re-released wide in February, and I don't think there's a $100 million hit in the group. In fact, I don't think any will get all that close to the century mark. There are several that should be solid mid-level hits and with a little luck, half of them could reached $50 million and there are five that could reach $75 million. Last February, Just Go With It topped $100 million while Gnomeo and Juliet came within $33,000 of doing the same. We won't replicate that this year, so we have to hope for a lot more depth. If films like Safe House, Journey 2, Ghost Rider 2, The Phantom Menace: 3D and The Vow all meet expectations, then perhaps 2012 will continue its hot start. More...

Latest News

February 19	Weekend Estimates: Safe House and The Vow Neck-and-Neck for Presidents' Honors
February 18	Featured TV on DVD Review: Nurse Jackie: Season Three
February 17	Limited Releases Look to Defeat the Competition
February 17	Contest: Apart from the Crowd
February 16	Featured TV on DVD Review: Weeds: Season Seven
February 16	Weekend Predictions: Is the Box Office Back with a Vengeance?
February 16	2012 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Actress
February 16	2012 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Actor

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Weekend Predictions: Is the Box Office Back with a Vengeance?

We enter Presidents Day long weekend with a substantial lead on 2011. (Although we are way behind 2010's and even 2009's pace. I choose to focus on the positive.) There are some good signs going into this weekend. Depending on who you talk to, there are two or three films that could hit $20 million over the three-day weekend and five or six that could reach $10 million. The best new release of the week, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance could make more than $30 million over three days and $40 million over four. There is some bad news, as this weekend last year was also pretty potent with six films earning more than $10 million over the three-day weekend. However, 2012 has better strength at the top, which should help it earn yet another win. More...

Weekend Top 3

		Movie	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Total Gross	Days
1	(2)	Safe House	$23,969,280	-40.33%	3,121	$78,238,895	10
2	(1)	The Vow	$23,600,000	-42.72%	2,958	$85,527,000	10
3	(new)	Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance	$22,000,000		3,174	$22,000,000	3

Jazzing Up the Per Theater Chart

Chico and Rita started its run on top of the per theater chart with $21,400 in one theater. Given its reviews and its Oscar nomination, it should have no trouble expanding at least somewhat. The overall number one film, The Vow, was in second place on the per theater chart with an average of $13,929. Safe House was close behind with $12,880. It's not too common for wide releases to earn more than $10,000 on the per theater chart at this time of year, so to have two of them do so on the same weekend is doubly impressive. The final film in the $10,000 club was Rampart with an average of $12,089. Like Chico and Rita it should expand for similar reasons. (I.E. Strong reviews and major nominations.) More...

Weekend Top 10 By Theater Gross

	Movie	Gross	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
1	The Vow	$23,600,000	2,958	$7,978	$85,527,000	10
2	Safe House	$23,969,280	3,121	$7,680	$78,238,895	10
3	Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance	$22,000,000	3,174	$6,931	$22,000,000	3
4	Jodaeiye Nader az Simin	$335,021	54	$6,204	$2,051,773	52
5	Undefeated	$30,875	5	$6,175	$30,875	3
6	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island	$20,085,000	3,500	$5,739	$53,201,000	10
7	W ciemno?ci	$77,193	14	$5,514	$137,156	10
8	This Means War	$17,550,000	3,189	$5,503	$19,159,805	3
9	Rampart	$131,703	28	$4,704	$165,801	10
10	Rundskop	$23,500	5	$4,700	$23,500	3

IMAX: Deathly Rises, But Not Quite Over the Moon

There were two films making noise on IMAX this weekend: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II and Transformers: Dark of the Moon. The former added $9 million over the weekend for a total of $41.6 million worldwide, and it has yet to open in China. Speaking of China, Dark of the Moon debuted there over the weekend and earned $3.7 million on just 31 screens. The film already has $45.5 million worldwide, and it has yet to open in Japan.

Weekend Top 5 IMAX Movies

	Movie	Gross	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
1	Born to be Wild 3D	$100,092	44	$2,275	$16,155,017	311
2	Hubble 3D	$43,396	18	$2,411	$30,957,776	696
3	Space Station	$20,183	3	$6,728	$84,918,706	3,587
4	Sea Rex 3D: Journey to a Prehistoric World	$18,969	14	$1,355	$4,776,391	409
5	Under the Sea 3-D	$14,709	11	$1,337	$30,518,695	1,095

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