Every industry is in trouble this winter, and publishing is an industry.
I've put a couple of new links in the Writers' Resources list:
Publishers Weekly and
Quill and Quire. The first covers the American publishing business, and Q&Q is Canadian. If you explore them, you'll see that the book biz is in the same trouble as
magazines and
newspapers.
What does this mean for those of us who write fiction?
Maybe not much. In the midst of the Depression in the 1930s, publishers brought out astounding novels, and magazines paid well for short fiction. (My dad, a very good-looking guy, made some money as a model for the illustrations in high-end magazines specializing in women's fiction.) The giants of mid-century popular fiction got their start in the Depression: Robert Heinlein, Dashiell Hammett, Raymond Chandler.
Or maybe today's recession means a lot. Publishing had fewer competitors then—just radio and movies. People read more, and it didn't cost much. A brand-new hardcover novel might cost $1.95, and the 20-cent royalty could keep the author living pretty well.
Seventy years later, fiction is a minor branch of a megapublishing industry. That industry is battling a host of competitors, many of them online. I recall when a paperback novel cost 35 cents; now it's more likely 30 times that. (In my local supermarket today, I considered buying a
Dan Simmons novel about the doomed Franklin expedition in the Canadian Arctic: good author, subject that fascinates me, but the price was just too high.)
In times like these, no publisher is quite insane enough to take a chance on an unknown writer with no agent. The publisher has long since sacked the underpaid sub-editor who would normally read submissions from such writers. The agents who normally filter promising manuscripts for the publishers are seeking only safe, predictable stuff from writers with great sales records. Unknown writers would get a prompter answer from the Norse god Thor than from such agents.
In the 1980s and 90s, I earned less and less with each novel. I started with $20,000 for Icequake and another $20,000 for its sequel, Tsunami. That paid for the upstairs we put on the house, including the office where I'm writing this, but neither book sold enough copies to pay for those advances.
Later novels got smaller advances, or outright rejections. I had to peddle them downmarket, and even when I got back to Del Rey Books, I couldn't sell enough copies to warrant the great editorial support I got. After Redmagic in 1995, Del Rey also stopped answering my queries.
The mass-market industry was changing, and not for the better. After eleven published novels, I was actually less marketable than some kid with no track record. The kid might make some money; I clearly couldn't.
No, I'm not feeling sorry for myself. No one promised me a literary career of wealth and fame. Some people buy lottery tickets, and some write novels. Most never see any return at all. At a particular time in North American publishing, I wrote stuff that editors liked, even if not enough readers did. No complaints.
My writing did teach me a lot about the numbers. Consider this: My last couple of novels in the 1990s made about $8,000 each. Each took me a couple of years to complete, while I also taught college English full-time and also wrote a lot of articles (word for word, the articles paid way better).
Assume you need, say, $65,000 to live reasonably well and securely in 2009. To make a living from writing novels at 8 grand a book, you'd need to crank out eight novels, each around 125,000 words, between now and next Christmas.
That's a million words, or roughly 20,000 words (100 manuscript pages) a week. And that assumes your publisher is delighted with every script as you deliver it, and brings it out promptly, and each book "earns out" its $8,000 advance. If it doesn't, your publisher will soon lose interest. (You'll also have to publish most of your stuff under pen names, because readers are happy with about one or two titles a year from a given author.)
Now, not many people can crank out 20,000 words a week, year in and year out, and be sure of entertaining enough people to keep it going. And who would want to be one of those industrious hacks? When would you have enough time to take a week off in Cancun, or an afternoon to go to the dentist?
And what happens when your publisher gets sold to some conglomerate, and the new guy in charge thinks you're the problem and not the solution?
The prospects for new writers today are far, far worse than they were when I broke into mass-market fiction in 1978 with The Empire of Time (advance: $3,500). I didn't even have an agent. Now the mass-market publishers won't even look at unagented submissions.
If I've depressed you sufficiently, let's consider what you could do if you still think that God put you on earth to write fiction and not deliver pizza.
First, do what writers did 300 years ago: Make a few copies of your stuff and circulate it to friends. Enjoy their comments, positive or not, and get on with your life.
Second, self-publish. Vanity presses, when I was a kid, were a joke: Awful writers paid fortunes to get into print with a lifetime supply of Christmas presents to friends and family. Now, online print-on-demand publishers are charging reasonable amounts to bring out a few copies of well-designed books.
Look into it. If you're industrious, you could order enough copies to fill the trunk of your car, and then distribute those copies to local bookstores on consignment. If you publish your own book, you're a publisher. Maybe you're more of a businessperson than you thought, and you'll actually enjoy the experience.
What's more, if your book sells fairly well on consignment, some commercial publisher may be willing to become your distributor, placing the book in far more outlets than you could hope to reach.
Third, give your stuff away. Do it on the cheap by turning your manuscript into a PDF and posting it on your blog. Or hire someone to typeset it using InDesign, and then upload it to your blog. You'll reach a few more readers, and they may pass your book along to others. You won't have money, but you'll have readers.
Fourth, remember Hunter S. Thompson's observation: "When the going gets weird, the weird turn professional." If you've got the brains and bloody-mindedness, invent a whole new genre for an audience no one even knows exists. Edgar Allen Poe, as weird an American as the 19th century ever produced, created the
detective story and moved science fiction way beyond Mary Shelley's
Frankenstein.
But whatever you do, don't give up writing fiction. You've already wired your brain by writing, and it will only atrophy if you don't keep at it. Every story you write is first of all a dialogue with yourself, and only after is it a dialogue with your readers. So keep talking with yourself, listen to what your inner writer wants to tell you, and you may well end up talking also with readers in the 23rd century.
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