Who Runs Gov

The White House talking points that are being distributed this morning to outside surrogates to use on TV — which were sent over by a source — instruct supporters to stress the House Dems who have flipped from No to Yes in the past 24 hours, an effort to create a self-reinforcing sense of momentum:

* Members of Congress who were opposed to the bill are stepping forward to say they now support this health insurance reform legislation that will rein in insurance companies, lower costs, help small businesses and reduce the deficit.

* And we’ve seen support pouring in from all around the country — from newspapers like the National Catholic Reporter and the Washington Post, to advocacy groups ranging from LULAC to the Federation of American Hospitals. So far more than 250 groups representing doctors, nurses, consumer groups, clergy, small businesses, farmers, seniors, young people and more — all are raising their voices to say that the time to enact health insurance reform is now.

The emphasis on Catholic, Hispanic and medical groups alike is meant to suggest White House confidence that the uncommonly broad coalition they’ve tried to build behind reform is, after a year of strife, tension and uncertainty, finally coming together.

And: Having just watched Nancy Pelosi at a presser this morning, it seems clear that she and her staff are convinced they have the votes, though she stopped short of saying so.

Asked if the votes were in hand, she said: “When we bring the vote to the floor, we’ll have a tremendous victory for the American people.” She also quoted Dem Rep John Lewis telling the Dem caucus: “We may not have chosen this time in history, but this time has chosen us.”

Full White House talking points here.

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It appears SEIU is dead serious about this business about yanking support for House Dems who vote No on the health bill.

The SEIU bluntly informed Dem Rep Michael Arcuri of New York yesterday that it’s pulling support for him in the wake of the news that he’s an all-but-certain No, I’m told. And the search for a primary or third-party challenger is underway.

Jerry Dennis, the president of SEIU local 200, which represents 14,000 workers statewide in New York, called Arcuri yesterday and delivered the news, SEIU spokesman Matt Nerzig tells me.

“Jerry called him yesterday and told him it’ll be very difficult to support him come next election if he’s not on this bill,” Nerzig says. “The search for alternatives has already begun.”

“This guy won by two percent with our support and 1199’s support against a moderate Republican last time,” Nerzig continues. “It’ll be very difficult for him to win reelection next time without us.” Arcuri won with 52% of the vote in 2008.

It’s worth reiterating that this threat is very real. Arcuri could lose without the ground and cash support of labor. Also, because of the powerhouse Working Families Party in New York, a labor-backed third party challenge could be a career-ender for pols like him.

Separately, in a bit of good news for Dem vote counters, Rep Charlie Wilson, a former Yes who was thought to be undecided, will vote Yes again, a good get for Dems because he shared the Stupak dozen’s concerns.

“I am confident that the language in the Senate bill ensures that there will be no federal funding for abortions,” Wilson said. “I am confident that the Senate language upholds all of my pro-life values.”

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* All eyes on the undecideds: By early afternoon, it should be apparent which way the momentum is swinging — and both sides are mounting a furious final push.

* Listen to the audio of a new robocall the NRCC is unleashing in the districts of 68 vulnerable House Dems.

“Time is running out to stop the dangerous government takeover of healthcare that Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama are pushing through Congress even though a majority of us oppose it,” the call says. “This vote could happen this weekend — make sure your voice is heard!”

* Rep John Boccieri, a former No, is set to announce his position at 10:40 AM today.

* Also: Dem Rep Michael Arcuri’s stance on the health bill continues to be a big question mark. Yesterday it was reported he had privately told Dem leaders he’s a No. Now he’s reported to be “leaning against” the bill. His office hasn’t said word boo.

* Related random factoid: An Arcuri staffer told me that his office has been getting deluged with calls from all over the country after Rush Limbaugh announced yesterday that he’s a No.

* Charlie Mahtesian has a user friendly guide explaining what’s driving the different blocs of remaining undecided Dems.

* Aaron Blake gets inside the heads of the undecideds.

* Chief Dem vote counter James Clyburn says Dems will get it done.

* Also gearing up for the final push: Organizing for America goes up with a full page ad in USA Today highlighting a new tool they’ve deployed that allows voters to send a direct and personal message, complete with photo, to members of Congress.

* Joe Klein has been doing great work keeping up the pressure on the right to deal with David Petraeus’ criticism of Israeli intransigence.

* And Spencer Ackerman has been doing great stuff on the Anti-Defamation League’s ongoing assault on Petraeus.

* The caricature of Hillary Clinton as Lady Macbeth is revealed yet again to be an unhinged fantasy, which is surprising only to those who bought into it in the first place.

* Andy Stern acknowledges that past labor threats of primaries have rung hollow, but insists that if House Dems vote No it will of necessity require a new kind of response.

* And Joe Biden reveals what he’s privately telling wavering House Dems: Voters will reward them for passing reform.

What else is happening?

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* The town halls are back! Sort of. The NRCC is coordinating a “tele-town hall” — by phone — tonight in the districts of two key undecided Dems, Bill Owens and Scott Murphy, a GOP official says.

The call will be run by two GOP Reps, heart surgeon Charles Boustany (who responded to Obama’s speech) and NRCC deputy chair Greg Walden. They’ll be on a phone call that gets pumped into homes in the Dem districts. Recipients can sign into the call, whereupon the good doctor will explain to them why the Dem plan is disastrous for their health.

* MSNBC says Dem leaders are within five of getting the needed 216 to pass health reform.

* But David Dayen urges skepticism, since it’s in the interest of leaders to give passage an aura of inevitability in order to swing remaining undecides.

* Rep Travis Childers will vote No, which is a big deal because he was one of the core 15 or so truly undecided votes.

* Rep Betsy Markey of Colorado will switch from No to Yes, a vote that puts her in “political peril,” according to the Fort Collins Coloradoan.

* Rep Bart Gordon will also flip from No to Yes.

* Upshot of above announcements: As best as I can determine, many of the core true undecided Dems still haven’t made up their minds.

* Sam Stein concurs, says it all turns on whether former No votes who are still undecided can be flipped.

* The final bill is here.

* Also in that link (scroll down): Rep Bobby Rush is all over the map, appears to be back in the undecided camp.

* Research 2000 for DailyKos: Marco Rubio still crushing Charlie Crist, 58-30.

* White House announces renewed push for immigration reform, but those involved insist the timing has nothing to do with the need for Hispanic support for the health bill.

* Glenn Greenwald and Jane Hamsher say Ben Smith was mostly right about Rahm Emanuel’s vindication.

* And Joe Biden acknowledges in an interview with ABC News that he’s gotten an earful of criticism of White House “messaging” from nervous House Dems — but tells them everything’s gonna be alright.

What else is happening?

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Things are going so quick now that I thought I’d do a quick roundup of updates:

* White House officials and Dem leaders were bummed earlier today to learn that National Council of La Raza, a well respected Hispanic advocacy group, was coming out against the Senate bill.

* But they’re now buoyed by the fact that the League of United Latin American Citizens is now endorsing the Senate bill. “While this is not a perfect bill that contains everything we would like, it is an important step,” the group said, adding it will help helping 9 million Latinos.

* And: Luis Gutierrez, a leader of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus who had threatened to vote No over the bill’s immigration language, just announced at a presser that he will vote Yes.

* Key takeaway: Everyone is wondering whether any single bloc of House Dems — the Hispanic caucus, the progressives, the moderates — will be willing to sink the bill. Dems had come to fear that the Hispanic caucus might end up doing just that. But Gutierrez and ULAC seem to put that possibility to rest — and that this constituency is close to locked down.

* The Speaker’s office is circulating talking points among surrogates, telling them how to explain how the reconciliation fix has improved the bill. Check them out right here for a preview of what you’ll be hearing in the days ahead.

* A key House Dem, Michael Arcuri, is reportedly telling Dem leaders that he’s going to vote No. But his office is refusing to confirm this, and indeed is saying nothing at all about his intentions. Will keep you posted.

* Robert Gibbs just issued a statement explaining the delay in Obama’s trip. Key nugget:

The President telephoned the leaders of Indonesia and Australia and told them that he must postpone his planned visits there for a later date so he can remain in Washington for this critical vote. The President now expects to visit Indonesia in June.

The President greatly regrets the delay. Our international alliances are critical to America’s security and economic progress. But passage of health insurance reform is of paramount importance, and the President is determined to see this battle through.

Putting international relations on hold to get this done.

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A second labor powerhouse is about to bring the hammer down on wavering House Dems.

The AFL-CIO is set to rachet up the pressure on House Dems who are considering voting No on the health reform bill, a source from the union tells me, implicitly threatening primaries and third-party challenges. The news comes days after the SEIU went public with a very explicit threat to do the same.

In the days ahead, the presidents of the AFL-CIO’s unions — heavy hitters such as Richard Trumka, AFSCME’s Gerald McEntee, and CWA’s Larry Cohen — will be making direct personal (ahem) appeals to these House Dems, the source says.

“Everybody who’s undecided now, all the different union presidents are going to get on the phone and bring very heavy pressure,” the source says. “Trumka, McEntee, Larry Cohen — all of our presidents will be laying down the law.”

Earlier this afternoon, the AFL-CIO voted to support the fixed version of the Senate bill, Sam Stein reports, despite a last-minute dispute over the so-called “Cadillac” tax.

The AFL-CIO source sends over the list of House Dems who are being targeted:

Dennis Cardoza, Jim Costa, Daniel Lipinski, Stephen Lynch, Michael Michaud, James Oberstar, Steve Dreihaus, Charlie Wilson Marcy Kaptur, John Boccieri, Zack Space, Tom Perriello, Jason Altmire, Christopher Carney, Paul Kanjorski, Tim Holden, Jerry Costello, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall, Kathy Dahlkepmer.

The source says that the threat of a primary or third-party challenge will be implicit, particularly since the AFL-CIO is already supporting Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter’s primary challenge to Blanche Lincoln.

“That will definitely be hanging in the air,” the source says, adding that primaries and third-party challenges “are definitely things that we’re gonna be looking into.”

Suffice it to say that life is going to get pretty intense for these folks in the days ahead…

Update: List of names edited for accuracy.

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Ezra Klein frames the choice that undecided House Dems, conservative and liberal alike, now face:

If you’re a liberal House Democrat, here’s what you’d be voting against: Legislation that covers 32 million people. A world in which 95 percent of all non-elderly, legal residents have health-care coverage. An end to insurers rescinding coverage for the sick, or discriminating based on preexisting conditions, or spending 30 cents of each premium dollar on things that aren’t medical care. Exchanges where insurers who want to jack up premiums will have to publicly explain their reason, where regulators will be able to toss them out based on bad behavior, and where consumers will be able to publicly rate them. Hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies to help lower-income Americans afford health-care insurance. The final closure of the Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit’s “doughnut hole.”

If you’re a conservative House Democrat, then probably you support many of those policies, too. But you also get the single most ambitious effort the government has ever made to control costs in the health-care sector.

The House Dem leadership’s game plan all along has been to tell wavering conservative Democrats who voted No last time that they have now gotten their way — a bill with no public option, a bill with stronger cost controls, a bill that’s more fiscally responsible, etc.

Now the CBO has effectively stamped a seal of nonpartisan approval on this argument. Dem leaders are confident that the score will give these Dems the cover they need to vote Yes. Indeed, Dem leaders are confident that many waverers will conclude from the score that voting No is no longer really an option.

The only remaining factor: The actual language of the bill, which Dem leaders hope will make the case for passage even stronger to conservative Dems. Stay tuned for that; we’ll have it for you shortly.

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As I noted below, Mitch McConnell seemed to make a stark admission in an interview published yesterday, suggesting flatly that the decision had been made in advance to deny Dems bipartisan support for health reform.

Now the Democratic National Committee, seeking to elevate McConnell’s remarks, is going up with a new ad, sent over by a source, blasting McConnell as “what’s wrong with Washington”:

“Last summer, Republican Senator Mitch McConnell said he wanted a bipartisan bill on health care,” the ad intones. “But that wasn’t true. Even before President Obama took office, he was plotting his obstruction. And Senate Republicans stood with him, playing politics and protecting their special interest allies.”

The spot will run on D.C. cable into next week, through the health care vote, suggesting the target is Beltway lawmakers, opinionmakers and media figures. Dems had been hoping that McConnell’s remarks constituted a kind of “smoking gun” that revealed the true nature of GOP obstructionism, but the McConnell interview went largely ignored yesterday.

Here’s what McConnell said in the interview, referring to health care:

“It was absolutely critical that everybody be together because if the proponents of the bill were able to say it was bipartisan, it tended to convey to the public that this is O.K., they must have figured it out. It’s either bipartisan or it isn’t.”

The ad highlights the odd public opinion conundrum Dems face. Polls show that more think the GOP has been unwilling to compromise with Obama and Dems than vise versa. But majorities keep saying Obama should nonetheless continue to seek common ground — suggesting that Dems haven’t yet persuaded voters to buy the message that Republicans won’t compromise under any circumstances as part of a concerted strategy.

Dems are hoping this ad will start to change that a bit by drawing more media attention to McConnell’s remarks. They think McConnell’s admission deserves to get some serious, sustained attention from the cable nets and Beltway punditocracy.

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Hoping to build on the momentum generated by the release of the CBO score, House Dem leaders are set to hold a presser today at around noon to unveil the final bill, a leadership aide emails.

The bill will be posted online at around that time too.

I think we can expect the undecideds to start breaking one way or the other by late afternoon today, or possibly by tomorrow morning, if they want to digest the bill overnight. It will be quickly become clear which way they’re breaking.

Undecided Dems: Put up or shut up time.

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The CBO score has landed!

The score finds that the fixed Senate bill will cost $940 billion over the next 10 years, a senior Democratic aide confirms.

It will cut the deficit by $130 billion in that time, the aide adds.

Ezra Klein notes that this means “more deficit reduction than either the House or Senate bill, and more coverage than the Senate bill.”

Bottom line: House Dems have no more excuses for indecision. Now we find out how — or whether — the House Dems who have said their vote all hinges on the score will factor it into their decision. More soon.

Update: More numbers from a second Dem source:

* It cuts the deficit by $1.2 trillion in the second ten years.

* It reduces annual growth in Medicare expenditures by 1.4 percentage points per year.

* Expands coverage to 32 million Americans.

A third Dem source exults that this is the “biggest deficit reduction measure since the 1993 Clinton budget.”

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* Incoming: The Congressional Budget Office score of the reconciliation fix is due to land on D.C. today like a bomb. One lingering question: Are House Dems who are holding out for it doing so because they genuinely intend to make it a factor in their thinking, or merely to put off a tough decision?

* At least a dozen House Dems, mostly on the conservative side, are saying right now that they’re awaiting the score. So presumably they’re hoping it will give them cover to support the Senate bill by letting them argue that it’s more conservative than the House version and has stronger cost controls.

* Case in point: Rep Brian Baird of Washington, a former No vote. He bluntly told the President in a private meeting that he won’t make up his mind without the score. But will it genuinely be a factor in his decision?

* The GOP targets two new undecided House Dems: The NRCC is going up on the air with spots hitting Dina Titus of Nevada and Dennis Cardoza of California, both former Yes votes, a GOP official says. The spots asks whether their “careers on life support.”

Key takeaway: The GOP ad expenditures are worth tracking because they indicate who Republicans view as genuinely undecided or vulnerable in the event they vote Yes.

* Hey, whatever works: Mark Kirk is running for Obama’s Senate seat with a pledge to “lead the effort to repeal” Obama’s signature initiative.

* Tripling down: Perry Bacon reports that “dozens” of GOP candidates and lawmakers have pledged repeal.

* Nate Silver offers a persuasive explanation for why liberals are now overwhelmingly supportive of passing the Senate bill: Obama and other Dem leaders are conspicuously “fighting like hell” to get it done.

* Time is on their side? As of last night, House Dems still hadn’t seen the text of the reconciliation fix.

* Train wreck: General Stanley McChrystal is caught off guard by Eric Holder’s claim that he wants to read Miranda rights to Bin Laden’s “corpse,” says he still hopes to take the terror mastermind alive.

* Also: CIA director Leon Panetta shares new details on how badly hobbled the CIA’s drone strikes and other tactics has left Al Qaeda. What will the Cheneyites say?

* But: What about that pesky question of a legal rationale for those drone strikes? The Obama administration says they’ll get around to sharing that with us one of these days. The fierce urgency of whenever…

* Bart Stupak: Who cares what the nuns think?

* Special bonus Stupak: My effort to get my way on the health bill has made my life a “living hell.” Pass the tissues!

* And with the President set to sign a jobs bill today, the DSCC will release a new Web video ripping Republican Senate candidates for opposing job creation.

What else is happening?

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* Here’s the latest argument from Dem leadership aides to nervous rank and file members: Republicans, no matter how hard they try, just can’t kill the bill.

Top Dem aides are circulating a new memo urging House Dems to keep in mind the long view: The GOP has tried to stop reform for a year, but it’s still moving inexorably forward. Key quote:

The other side has hit us with their best shot and reformers are still standing. It’s now clear that those opposing reform can’t close the deal to kill the bill. That is why they are focusing on process over policy, insider attacks meant to cause confusion and further muddy the waters. This is their last gasp and, as the polls show, it isn’t working.

That last assertion seems debatable — even Obama and some top Dems have conceded that the Senate bill was tainted by the process and attacks on it. But the bill is, in fact, still alive. Read the whole memo here.

* Taegan Goddard: “For the first time, the Gallup daily tracking poll shows more people disapproving of President Obama’s job performance than approving, 47% to 46%.”

* Still more evidence that the Cheneyites aren’t even remotely chastened by all the conservative legalistic handwringing about their ongoing DOJ smear.

* I noted here a while ago that Dems shouldn’t be too smug about getting reconcilation past the GOP’s procedural blockade, and now Senator Kent Conrad, who’s well respected on procedural matters, confirms that Dems have yet to resolve how they’re going to surmount some hurdles.

* Speaking of Conrad, he said in an interview with Mike Stark that he’s for filibuster reform. That’s no small thing: Conrad is a moderate who’s treated inside the Beltway as a kind of all-knowing procedure oracle.

* Takedown of the day: Spencer Ackerman versus Abe Foxman.

* They appear to be dead serious about this pass-the-bill stuff: SEIU keeps up the pressure on wavering House Dems.

* Adam Green, who’s done as much as anyone to keep the public option’s pulse beating, unloads with both barrels on Jill Lawrence over her latest public option obituary.

* Five more undecided House Dems signal they’ll vote YES on the Senate bill, and while these were expected, The Hill opines that “momentum seemed to be building” today.

* But: House GOPers will move to force a vote tomorrow to block the Dem use of “deem and pass.”

* And: Latest CNN whip count says foes of the bill can kill it if they round up 11 more NO votes.

* And for those of you who like hanging out deep in the weeds, the First Read gang has a useful look at whether “deem and pass” is constitutional.

What else is happening?

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Rep Dale Kildee of Michigan, a key pro-life Dem who was thought to be part of the Stupak bloc, released a statement today confirming that he will vote for the Senate bill.

But what’s really got Democrats psyched today is the language he used — his strong endorsement, in religious terms, of the Senate bill, which Dems think will prove persuasive to what remains of the Stupak bloc:

For those who know me, I have always respected and cherished the sanctity of human life. I spent 6 years studying to be a priest and was willing to devote my life to God. I came to Congress two years after the Hyde Amendment became law and I have spent the last 34 years casting votes to protect the lives of the unborn. I have stood up to many in my party to defend the right to life and have made no apologies for doing so. I now find myself disagreeing with some of the people and groups I have spent a lifetime working with. I have listened carefully to both sides, sought counsel from my priest, advice from family, friends and constituents and I have read the Senate abortion language more than a dozen times.

I am convinced that the Senate language maintains the Hyde Amendment, which states that no federal money can be used for abortion. The Senate bill includes a “conscience clause” and allows states to ban plans that include abortion. I also disagree with the argument that the Senate bill would lead to abortions being performed at community health centers. Under existing law (42 C.F.R. § 50.301), community health centers are prohibited from performing abortions.

We must not lose sight of what is at stake here — the lives of 31 million American children, adults, and seniors — who don’t have health insurance. There is nothing more pro-life than protecting the lives of 31 million Americans. Voting for this bill in no way diminishes my pro-life voting record or undermines my beliefs. I am a staunch pro-life member of Congress — both for the born and the unborn.”

Kildee isn’t persuading all his fellow pro-life holdouts. Rep Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, for instance, is still strongly condemning the Senate bill.

But here you have a member who studied to be a priest describing the Senate bill as “pro life” — something that one assumes will prove persuasive to at least some of his fellow anti-abortion Dems.

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David Dayen, who’s whip counting on health reform has been invaluable, tallies up the final 15 undecided House Dems — the group who holds the fate of reform in the balance:

Lincoln Davis, Jim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, John Barrow, Zack Space, Chris Carney, Brad Ellsworth, Jerry Costello, Henry Cuellar, Nick Rahall, Solomon Ortiz, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell.

This is the group that is widely deemed to be truly on the fence, not ones who are still holding out for reasons not relating to the legislation and whose votes can already be divined. Presuming Dayen’s calculations are right, Dems need eight of these to vote Yes.

Right now, Costello appears to be a No, according to the local Illinois press.

Which bring me to a request for you readers. When the CBO score and the reconciliation language come out, we’re going to see decisions suddenly being made at a rapid-fire rate. I’m hoping you all will let me know what you’re seeing on the ground — in your local papers, in your calls to Congressional offices, etc. — in order to help me track the final decisions of these undecideds.

It’s going to happen quick — like dominos falling. The question is in which direction. Please help me track it.

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More air cover from the pro-reform camp — and this time, it has some serious firepower.

Ben Smith obtains the drug industry’s final ad boosting health care reform, a spot that’s expected to have millions of dollars behind it. This is a big deal, because it could help reform proponents match the massive spending of reform foes, who are dumping $10 million or more into ads pummeling undecided House Dems in multiple districts:

The ad, by the industry-funded Americans for Stable Quality Care, was not publicly released, presumably because the group isn’t all that eager to draw public attention to the deal it cut with the White House enabling it to throw its weight behind reform.

Yet this group is probably the only one with deep enough pockets to match the enormous expenditures coming from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other business groups. Indeed, the spot is expected to run in as many as three dozen House districts.

So this big-money push for reform could have a real impact, reaching the TV screens of hundreds of thousands of constituents as wavering House Dems mull over their very tough decision in the days ahead.

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