Why China worries the Pentagon

Comments: 13

Last Updated: 12:53 AM, October 6, 2009

Posted: 12:51 AM, October 6, 2009

REPLETE with Olympian fanfare, China just a few days ago "celebrated" the 60th anniversary of the founding and achievements of the People's Republic.
	 
Unfortunately, not everyone is celebrating -- especially not military analysts.
	 
They're not alone: China has big human-rights problems, especially as regards restive minorities such as the Tibetans and Uighurs (Chinese Muslims). And Beijing has limited entry by foreign companies into China's booming market of 1.3 billion people. Plus the Greens are unhappy with the "Middle Kingdom's" belching smokestacks, which make it the world's largest greenhouse-gas producer.
	 
But it's China's military, which was proudly paraded through Tiananmen Square on National Day, that produces the biggest worries.
	 
In a style reminiscent of the old Soviet Union, Beijing trotted out no less than 50 all-Chinese-made military systems during the spectacle. Many of the weapons weren't brand-new -- but naval attaches probably strained their necks to see at least one system: the land-based DF-21 ballistic missile.
	 
This system -- the world's first ballistic missile capable of hitting a moving target at sea -- could be used to take out US aircraft carriers in a Sino-American dust-up. The conventionally armed missile has maneuverable warheads and a range in excess of 1,000 miles.
	 
The Pentagon brass are worried. Other than hammering the DF-21 before it launches, the Navy has
	 nohigh-confidence defense against the new Chinese missile.
	 
Also on the naval front, China is putting a lot of effort into power projection -- that is, into being able to deploy its maritime might far beyond its coastal waters.
	 
For decades, Beijing ignored its navy in favor of the army. But today the Chinese navy is going to sea like never before, including at least one world cruise. It has one of the world's most robust shipbuilding programs, introducing more than 10 new ship and submarine classes since the early 1990s --giving Beijing the Pacific's second-largest navy.
	 
And Chinese aircraft carriers
	 arein our future.
	 
Beijing is also going gangbusters on subs. The new Jin-class ballistic-missile submarines will carry the JL-2 ICBM, enhancing the survivability and deterrence of China's nuclear forces. Beijing's air force has a complement of new, home-built fighters.
	 
And the army is being downsized -- but only while it's being modernized and professionalized for high-tech warfare.
	 
Then there's the stuff you can't see at parades -- like China's hyperactive cyber- and counter-space warfare operations and capabilities, which focus on our slavish dependence on information technology and satellites.
	 
Beijing says its military buildup is no threat to regional peace and stability. Of course, its neighbors aren't convinced.
	 
As Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair noted earlier this year, Beijing's international behavior is driven by, among other things, a "longstanding ambition to see China play a role of a great power in East Asia and globally."
	 
Security analysts typically calculate a threat by looking at military capabilities plus political intent. And we can clearly see China's military might growing. A defense buildup doesn't preordain conflict -- but history suggests that it's a common outcome. Considering China's grand ambitions, what is Beijing's intent with its armed forces?
	 
Unfortunately, it's an answer we just can't get from a parade.
	 
Peter Brookes is a Heritage Foundation senior fellow and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense.
	 
peterbrookes@heritage.org

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Peter Brookes

REPLETE with Olympian fanfare, China just a few days ago "celebrated" the 60th anniversary of the founding and achievements of the People's Republic.

Unfortunately, not everyone is celebrating -- especially not military analysts.

They're not alone: China has big human-rights problems, especially as regards restive minorities such as the Tibetans and Uighurs (Chinese Muslims). And Beijing has limited entry by foreign companies into China's booming market of 1.3 billion people. Plus the Greens are unhappy with the "Middle Kingdom's" belching smokestacks, which make it the world's largest greenhouse-gas producer.

Blair: US intel chief notes Beijing's booming ambition.

But it's China's military, which was proudly paraded through Tiananmen Square on National Day, that produces the biggest worries.

In a style reminiscent of the old Soviet Union, Beijing trotted out no less than 50 all-Chinese-made military systems during the spectacle. Many of the weapons weren't brand-new -- but naval attaches probably strained their necks to see at least one system: the land-based DF-21 ballistic missile.

This system -- the world's first ballistic missile capable of hitting a moving target at sea -- could be used to take out US aircraft carriers in a Sino-American dust-up. The conventionally armed missile has maneuverable warheads and a range in excess of 1,000 miles.

The Pentagon brass are worried. Other than hammering the DF-21 before it launches, the Navy has no high-confidence defense against the new Chinese missile.

Also on the naval front, China is putting a lot of effort into power projection -- that is, into being able to deploy its maritime might far beyond its coastal waters.

For decades, Beijing ignored its navy in favor of the army. But today the Chinese navy is going to sea like never before, including at least one world cruise. It has one of the world's most robust shipbuilding programs, introducing more than 10 new ship and submarine classes since the early 1990s --giving Beijing the Pacific's second-largest navy.

And Chinese aircraft carriers are in our future.

Beijing is also going gangbusters on subs. The new Jin-class ballistic-missile submarines will carry the JL-2 ICBM, enhancing the survivability and deterrence of China's nuclear forces. Beijing's air force has a complement of new, home-built fighters.

And the army is being downsized -- but only while it's being modernized and professionalized for high-tech warfare.

Then there's the stuff you can't see at parades -- like China's hyperactive cyber- and counter-space warfare operations and capabilities, which focus on our slavish dependence on information technology and satellites.

Beijing says its military buildup is no threat to regional peace and stability. Of course, its neighbors aren't convinced.

As Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair noted earlier this year, Beijing's international behavior is driven by, among other things, a "longstanding ambition to see China play a role of a great power in East Asia and globally."

Security analysts typically calculate a threat by looking at military capabilities plus political intent. And we can clearly see China's military might growing. A defense buildup doesn't preordain conflict -- but history suggests that it's a common outcome. Considering China's grand ambitions, what is Beijing's intent with its armed forces?

Unfortunately, it's an answer we just can't get from a parade.

Peter Brookes is a Heritage Foundation senior fellow and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense.

peterbrookes@heritage.org

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Maggie.Q8818

10/06/2009 9:10 PM

Who cares!!! My boyfriend thinks the same with me. He is eight years older than me, lol. We met online at Agemingle @ c o m a nice and free place for Younger Men and Older Men, or Older Women and Younger Men, to interact with each other. Maybe you wanna check out

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Longhwa

10/06/2009 12:15 PM

Just Jim and TexKen point out an important fact, and that is that Beijing is using the trillion dollar U.S. debt it is holding as blackmail against the U.S. What is Obama's strategy? Borrow another trillion dollars from China to pay for his assinine socialized medicine health care plan. Good strategy. I hope Obama has been studying up on kowtowing and knows how to kneeleth properly before the mighty Emperor Hu when he goes to Beijing next month. While he's there, the President can tell the Communist Party how proud he is on their 60th Anniversary, and how very well they are doing for their people when they are not oppressing, repressing, reprogramming, reeducating and brutalizing them. I can see it now, when a reporter asks President Obama about human rights in China, Tibet and Xinjiang. "Human rights? What human rights? (Is that what I was supposed to say Chairman Hu? Did I get it right?)"

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just jim

10/06/2009 12:03 PM

Longhwa, you are a person who is facing facts, and clearly not buying the b.s.
The USA has been sold down the river, when China takes over, with luck they will remove our elected grand and great in Washington to be seen or heard from now more.
Which would be a good thing, I guess they think they will still be in power, idiots in that case, they will only last until they can assemble firing squads.
After all, in they betrayed this country, China would think they would betray them, therefore they would just shoot them.

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just jim

10/06/2009 11:58 AM

By the way, China could easily go across Mongolia, to Russia and by pass the tall hill country, Russia would align themselves in a heart beat with China for a really good chance to kick the backside of the USA, and once in Russia? Party would be over for Europe, and we have not gun fodder camps around the world, so the likelyhood of the USA becoming a part of China is excellent.They could, if they choose to do so force the USA into bankruptcy because we don't have enough money to pay them.
And there is a whole big bunch of them, both there and here.

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Longhwa

10/06/2009 11:54 AM

Contrary to Hoops' observation, it is in fact most definitely the U.S.'s business what China plans to do with its military. China is the most dangerous nation on earth (just look at the list of its best friends - Myanmar, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, Sudan, Gaddafi, Mugabe, Chavez, and a host of other members of the dictators' club) because of its animus, which is grounded in totalitarianism and the denial of all human rights to its own people, and to anyone else who might interfere with its hegemony, and because, as Hu Jin-tao has said before, the Chinese Communist Party plans to export its "socialism with Chinese characteristics" (which in the Chinese Communist dictionary means "a one-party dictatorship based on brutal repression") around the world. Just as an example of the evil animus of China, understand that our leader, the Great-Retreater, the Great-Appeaser, the Great-Misleader has decided to give the Dalai Lama the cold shoulder based on China's pressure. If China can influence President Obama's policy on human rights, what else will China be able to influence? We should be worried because we face a ruthless enemy, and our Commander in Chief only knows how to say "we surrender" in 60 languages. When does the President start acting "presidential"? As long as our leader is embarrassed at America's power and influence throughout the world (which millions of Americans toiled centuries to establish and which many generations have used to spread freedom, democracy and human enlightenment around the world), those who look to her for protection and help will only look on in disbelief. When that happens, China will feel emboldened, and, having successfully blackmailed President Obama, it will do it again, and again, and again.

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just jim

10/06/2009 11:48 AM

And after all, China's leaders beleive it is the will of heaven.
You good people are aware they are running the shipping ports in the BAahamas? As well as the Panama Canal? jimmy carter and bill clinton deal, yes, they did. We could have kept it, like nitwits, the Navy was out voted, after all a smart fellow like carter aided by clinton know a lot more about the navy than the Naval Officers do, everyone knows that.
Such clear thinking, while politicaly correct has almost destroyed this nation.
China Population growing old faster than the population in the USA?
We have a population of lets call it 330 million, China has 1.3 billion, in all most any type of a struggle they would kick us six ways from Sunday and our only hope would be to use nuclear warfare, and then it would become a program of shutting down the world.
Beside that, windy politicans in Washington will not beleive in danger till the bombs fall.
That has been the case for the last hundred years, look at Pearl Harbor, Korea, NYC World trade center, TWICE and the idiots did nothing and still have done next to nothing except waste money on wars on the wrong country.
A pox on both houses.

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just jim

10/06/2009 11:39 AM

Well, one could look at S. Korea, and its a very short hop from there to Japan, which is a pretty long, doable hop to Austrlaia, New Zealand, which is not that far from the playful aloaha islands, which is 2500 or so miles from Nncy's house.
And lets see, if your in Korea, you could turn and go into Mongolia, wich goes into russia.
Nah, nothing to see here.
And it will all come as a big surprise one sad day for the world.
We have no sustainable advantage over China, in fact, we by bullets for the current wars from Tiawan, if it comes to tanks, etc., a few more years and we will be unable to fight a war because we will no longer have the mfrg. capability to make heavy equip.
Our elected fools have destroyed our nation, yes, there is some left, all though they are working as hard as they can to destroy that all so.
I guess its that new hope and change thingy.

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Hoops

10/06/2009 8:41 AM

good points by Tex & Guide. ( except - a big one - ' leftist leadership ' wrong. it's Reaganomics - send jobs overseas, expect American workers to compete with $ 3. a day workers with no environmental /safety laws . . .)
I'll add - not really the U.S. business is it ? What's China gonna do, run tanks over Himalayas to attack India ? attack Russia ?

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