2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

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Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout67.34% Decrease[1]
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,405,284 1,382,536
Percentage 47.22% 46.45%
Wisconsin Presidential Election Results 2016.svg
County Results
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county with size showing number of votes
Treemap of the popular vote by county
Elections in Wisconsin

The 2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election. Wisconsin voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting Republican Party nominee Donald Trump against Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton.

On April 5, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Wisconsin voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic and Republican Parties' respective nominees for president in an open primary; voters were allowed to vote in either party's primary regardless of their own party affiliation. Bernie Sanders prevailed in Wisconsin's Democratic primary, while Ted Cruz won Wisconsin's Republican primary.

In the general election, Donald Trump unexpectedly won Wisconsin by a narrow margin of 0.77%, with 47.22% of the total votes over the 46.45% of Hillary Clinton. Wisconsin was the tipping-point state of the 2016 election; that is, the closest state that both candidates needed to win in order emerge with a victory in the election (for example, Michigan, while closer, was not necessary for a Trump victory).[2]

Trump's victory in Wisconsin was attributed to underestimated support from white working-class voters, a demographic group that had previously tended to vote for the Democratic candidate.[3][4][5] By winning Wisconsin, Trump became the first Republican candidate to win the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Following a statewide recount requested by Green Party candidate Jill Stein's campaign, Trump was certified to have won Wisconsin by a narrow margin of 1,405,284 votes to Clinton's 1,382,536.[6]

Wisconsin was also one of eleven states to have voted twice for Bill Clinton in the 1990s which Hillary Clinton lost.

Background[edit]

Further information: United States presidential election § Procedure

The incumbent President of the United States, Barack Obama, a Democrat, was first elected president in the 2008 election, running with then Senator Joe Biden of Delaware. Defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote,[7][8] Obama succeeded two-term Republican President George W. Bush. Obama and Biden were reelected in the 2012 presidential election, defeating former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 61.7% of electoral votes.[9] Although Barack Obama's approval rating in the RealClearPolitics poll tracking average remained between 40 and 50 percent for most of his second term, it has experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year.[10][11] Analyst Nate Cohn has noted that a strong approval rating for President Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate, and vice versa.[12]

Following his second term, President Obama was not eligible for another reelection. In October 2015, Obama's running-mate and two-term Vice President Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either.[13] With Obama and Biden's terms expiring on January 20, 2017, the electorate was asked to elect a new president, the 45th president and 48th vice president of the United States, respectively.

Democratic nomination process[edit]

Democratic presidential debate in Milwaukee, February 2016[edit]

Main article: 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums

The Democratic Party held its sixth presidential debate on February 11, 2016, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, at the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee. The debate was hosted by PBS NewsHour anchors Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff; it aired on PBS and was simulcast by CNN. Participants were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

Democratic primary, April 2016[edit]

Main article: 2016 Wisconsin Democratic primary
Election results by county.
  Bernie Sanders
  Hillary Clinton
Wisconsin Democratic primary, April 5, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 570,192 56.59% 48 1 49
Hillary Clinton 433,739 43.05% 38 9 47
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 1,732 0.17%
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente (write-in) 18 0.00%
Scattering 431 0.04%
Uncommitted 1,488 0.15% 0 0 0
Total 1,007,600 100% 86 10 96
Source: The Green Papers, Wisconsin Secretary of State

Green Party presidential preference convention[edit]

The Wisconsin Green Party held its presidential preference vote at its annual state convention in Madison, Wisconsin, on April 16.[14]

Wisconsin Green Party presidential convention, April 13, 2016[15]
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
America Symbol.svg Jill Stein – – 7
William Kreml – – 1
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry – – –
Darryl Cherney – – –
Kent Mesplay – – –
Total - 100.00% 8

Republican nomination process[edit]

Presidential debate in Milwaukee, November 2015[edit]

Main article: 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums

The Republican Party held its fourth presidential debate on November 10, 2015, in Milwaukee, at the Milwaukee Theatre. Moderated by Neil Cavuto, Maria Bartiromo and Gerard Baker, the debate aired on the Fox Business Network and was sponsored by The Wall Street Journal. Eight candidates including Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, and Rand Paul, participated in the primetime debate that was mostly focused on jobs, taxes, and the general health of the U.S. economy, as well as on domestic and international policy issues. The accompanying undercard debate featured Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Bobby Jindal who ended his campaign a week after the debate.

Republican primary, April 2016[edit]

Main article: 2016 Wisconsin Republican primary
Election results by county.
  Ted Cruz
  Donald Trump
Wisconsin Republican primary, April 5, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Ted Cruz 533,079 48.20% 36 0 36
Donald Trump 387,295 35.02% 6 0 6
John Kasich 155,902 14.10% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn) 10,591 0.96% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 5,660 0.51% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,054 0.28% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 2,519 0.23% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 2,281 0.21% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 1,424 0.13% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,191 0.11% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 772 0.07% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 511 0.05% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) 245 0.02% 0 0 0
Victor Williams (write-in) 39 <0.01% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,105,944 100.00% 42 0 42
Source: The Green Papers

Forecast[edit]

State voting history[edit]

Wisconsin joined the Union in May 1848 and has participated in all elections from 1848 onwards.

Since 1900, Wisconsin has been won by the Democrats and Republicans the same number of times.[16] Republican-turned-Progressive Robert M. La Follette Sr. carried the state in the 1924 presidential election.

The state voted for the Democratic nominee in the seven elections from 1988 to 2012, although sometimes by small margins, as it was in 1992, 2000, and 2004. There were other occasions, in contrast, when the margin of victory was substantial, such as 1996, 2008, and 2012.[16]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[17] Likely D November 6, 2016
CNN[18] Lean D November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[19] Lean D November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[20] Likely D November 8, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] Likely D November 7, 2016
Fox News[22] Lean D November 7, 2016

Polling[edit]

See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Wisconsin

Polls consistently showed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading by a margin of two to eight points in a four-way race.[23] The last poll published prior to the election was by SurveyMonkey and had Hillary Clinton with a two-point lead over Donald Trump.[23] Clinton never visited the state during the general election campaign, while Trump visited six times.[24] On election day, Trump ended up carrying the state by less than a point, a difference of an average of 5 to 6 points from most pre-election polling.[23] Prior to the election, many major news networks and professional and election analysts predicted the state as either lean or likely Democratic. Wisconsin's unexpected swing to Trump, along with two other Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan), was the deciding factor in his win of 306–232 over Clinton despite losing the popular vote. Clinton referenced the loss in her memoir What Happened: "If there's one place where we were caught by surprise, it was Wisconsin. Polls showed us comfortably ahead, right up until the end. They also looked good for the Democrat running for Senate, Russ Feingold."[25]

Statewide results[edit]

2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 1,405,284 47.22% 10
Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 1,382,536 46.45% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson William Weld 106,674 3.58% 0
Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 31,072 1.04% 0
Constitution Darrell Castle Scott Bradley 12,162 0.41% 0
Independent (write-in votes) Evan McMullin Nathan Johnson 11,855 0.40% 0
Workers World Monica Moorehead Lamont Lilly 1,770 0.06% 0
Independent Rocky De La Fuente Michael Steinberg 1,502 0.05% 0
Others / Write-In Votes
-
-
 23,295 0.78% 0
Totals 2,976,150 100.00% 10
Source: Wisconsin Elections Commission

Results breakdown[edit]

By congressional districts[edit]

District results showing number of votes by size and candidate by color.[26]

Official district results after recount from the Wisconsin Elections Commission.[26]

District Trump Clinton (others) Representative
1st 52% 42% 6% Paul Ryan (R)
2nd 29% 65% 6% Mark Pocan (D)
3rd 49% 44% 7% Ron Kind (D)
4th 22% 73% 5% Gwen Moore (D)
5th 57% 37% 7% Jim Sensenbrenner (R)
6th 55% 38% 7% Glenn Grothman (R)
7th 58% 37% 6% Sean Duffy (R)
8th 57% 37% 6% Mike Gallagher (R)

Results by county[edit]

Official results by county following recount.[27]

County Clinton Votes Trump Votes Johnson Votes Stein Votes Others Votes Total
Adams 36.97% 3,745 58.89% 5,966 2.13% 216 0.78% 79 1.22% 124 10,130
Ashland 52.61% 4,226 41.12% 3,303 2.42% 194 2.08% 167 1.77% 142 8,032
Barron 34.80% 7,889 60.05% 13,614 3.21% 727 0.75% 170 1.20% 271 22,671
Bayfield 51.53% 4,953 42.90% 4,124 2.05% 197 1.92% 185 1.59% 153 9,612
Brown 41.38% 53,382 52.10% 67,210 3.86% 4,985 1.06% 1,371 1.60% 2,063 129,011
Buffalo 36.17% 2,525 57.99% 4,048 3.12% 218 1.06% 74 1.66% 116 6,981
Burnett 33.75% 2,949 61.91% 5,410 2.70% 236 0.77% 67 0.87% 76 8,738
Calumet 36.25% 9,642 57.78% 15,367 3.96% 1,054 0.77% 204 1.23% 328 26,595
Chippewa 37.66% 11,887 56.75% 17,916 3.86% 1,219 0.84% 264 0.89% 282 31,568
Clark 30.87% 4,221 63.28% 8,652 3.33% 455 0.80% 109 1.73% 236 13,673
Columbia 45.55% 13,528 47.69% 14,163 3.68% 1,092 1.17% 346 1.92% 569 29,698
Crawford 44.24% 3,419 49.64% 3,836 3.58% 277 0.94% 73 1.59% 123 7,728
Dane 70.37% 217,697 23.04% 71,275 3.41% 10,541 1.40% 4,316 1.79% 5,525 309,354
Dodge 32.42% 13,968 61.83% 26,635 3.57% 1,538 0.84% 361 1.34% 576 43,078
Door 45.55% 8,014 48.77% 8,580 3.17% 558 0.82% 145 1.68% 295 17,592
Douglas 50.39% 11,357 42.87% 9,661 3.21% 724 1.50% 339 2.02% 455 22,536
Dunn 40.87% 9,034 51.96% 11,486 4.94% 1,093 1.33% 294 0.90% 199 22,106
Eau Claire 49.69% 27,340 42.40% 23,331 4.55% 2,504 1.27% 698 2.09% 1,152 55,025
Florence 25.04% 665 71.46% 1,898 2.41% 64 0.64% 17 0.45% 12 2,656
Fond du Lac 33.57% 17,387 59.89% 31,022 3.69% 1,909 0.86% 448 1.99% 1,030 51,796
Forest 34.74% 1,579 61.32% 2,787 1.85% 84 0.95% 43 1.14% 52 4,545
Grant 41.25% 10,051 50.68% 12,350 4.78% 1,164 1.31% 319 1.99% 484 24,368
Green 48.05% 9,122 45.79% 8,693 3.62% 687 1.03% 196 1.51% 287 18,985
Green Lake 28.60% 2,693 66.02% 6,216 2.93% 276 0.80% 75 1.66% 156 9,416
Iowa 54.33% 6,669 39.18% 4,809 3.71% 456 0.95% 116 1.83% 225 12,275
Iron 36.29% 1,275 59.24% 2,081 1.99% 70 1.14% 40 1.34% 47 3,513
Jackson 41.20% 3,818 52.94% 4,906 3.24% 300 1.17% 108 1.46% 135 9,267
Jefferson 38.44% 16,569 54.32% 23,417 3.86% 1,662 1.07% 461 2.32% 1,000 43,109
Juneau 34.71% 4,073 60.76% 7,130 2.36% 277 0.89% 105 1.28% 150 11,735
Kenosha 46.92% 35,799 47.23% 36,037 3.58% 2,733 1.14% 868 1.14% 867 76,304
Kewaunee 33.69% 3,627 61.47% 6,618 3.24% 349 0.73% 79 0.87% 94 10,767
La Crosse 50.89% 32,406 41.43% 26,378 4.20% 2,673 1.44% 919 2.04% 1,298 63,674
Lafayette 42.91% 3,288 51.91% 3,977 3.11% 238 0.64% 49 1.44% 110 7,662
Langlade 31.91% 3,250 63.60% 6,478 2.73% 278 0.67% 68 1.10% 112 10,186
Lincoln 36.51% 5,371 57.10% 8,401 4.05% 596 0.77% 114 1.56% 230 14,712
Manitowoc 35.64% 14,538 56.99% 23,244 3.83% 1,562 0.85% 347 2.68% 1,095 40,786
Marathon 38.09% 26,481 56.12% 39,014 3.35% 2,329 0.92% 641 1.51% 1,053 69,518
Marinette 31.50% 6,409 64.50% 13,122 2.58% 524 0.63% 129 0.78% 159 20,343
Marquette 35.58% 2,808 59.68% 4,709 2.38% 188 0.63% 50 1.72% 136 7,891
Menominee 76.61% 1,002 20.41% 267 0.92% 12 1.83% 24 0.23% 3 1,308
Milwaukee 65.48% 288,822 28.58% 126,069 3.08% 13,590 1.03% 4,528 1.82% 8,044 441,053
Monroe 35.80% 7,052 57.65% 11,356 3.59% 707 1.18% 232 1.79% 352 19,699
Oconto 29.40% 5,940 66.04% 13,345 2.92% 590 0.58% 118 1.05% 213 20,206
Oneida 37.66% 8,109 56.35% 12,132 3.49% 751 0.92% 199 1.58% 340 21,531
Outagamie 40.53% 38,068 53.10% 49,879 4.19% 3,933 1.05% 986 1.14% 1,067 93,933
Ozaukee 36.97% 20,170 55.84% 30,464 3.87% 2,111 0.71% 387 2.62% 1,428 54,560
Pepin 35.98% 1,344 59.06% 2,206 3.11% 116 0.88% 33 0.96% 36 3,735
Pierce 39.29% 8,399 52.73% 11,272 4.92% 1,052 1.31% 279 1.75% 374 21,376
Polk 33.26% 7,565 60.72% 13,810 3.89% 885 1.02% 232 1.11% 253 22,745
Portage 48.02% 18,529 44.84% 17,305 3.87% 1,493 1.51% 583 1.76% 679 38,589
Price 35.24% 2,667 60.24% 4,559 2.62% 198 1.08% 82 0.82% 62 7,568
Racine 45.22% 42,641 49.50% 46,681 3.45% 3,253 0.88% 833 0.95% 894 94,302
Richland 44.23% 3,569 49.73% 4,013 3.01% 243 1.38% 111 1.65% 133 8,069
Rock 51.71% 39,339 41.40% 31,493 3.76% 2,859 1.16% 885 1.97% 1,498 76,074
Rusk 30.63% 2,171 64.39% 4,564 2.78% 197 0.89% 63 1.31% 93 7,088
Sauk 46.85% 14,690 47.20% 14,799 3.52% 1,103 1.35% 424 1.09% 341 31,357
Sawyer 38.34% 3,503 56.75% 5,185 2.30% 210 1.08% 99 1.53% 140 9,137
Shawano 30.63% 6,068 64.46% 12,769 3.09% 613 0.87% 173 0.94% 187 19,810
Sheboygan 38.48% 23,000 54.40% 32,514 3.98% 2,378 0.92% 547 2.22% 1,327 59,766
St Croix 36.80% 17,482 55.19% 26,222 4.92% 2,337 1.07% 510 2.01% 957 47,508
Taylor 25.27% 2,393 69.46% 6,579 3.11% 295 0.71% 67 1.45% 137 9,471
Trempealeau 41.18% 5,636 53.82% 7,366 2.83% 388 0.86% 118 1.31% 179 13,687
Vernon 44.63% 6,371 49.06% 7,004 3.02% 431 2.04% 291 1.25% 178 14,275
Vilas 35.05% 4,770 60.00% 8,166 2.50% 340 0.86% 117 1.60% 218 13,611
Walworth 36.41% 18,710 56.16% 28,863 4.12% 2,116 1.19% 612 2.12% 1,090 51,391
Washburn 35.70% 3,282 59.13% 5,436 2.96% 272 0.82% 75 1.39% 128 9,193
Washington 27.17% 20,852 67.41% 51,740 3.58% 2,747 0.71% 543 1.14% 875 76,757
Waukesha 33.34% 79,224 60.00% 142,543 3.73% 8,897 0.70% 1,673 2.21% 5,256 237,593
Waupaca 32.39% 8,451 62.12% 16,209 3.07% 801 0.93% 242 1.50% 392 26,095
Waushara 31.40% 3,791 63.50% 7,667 2.70% 326 0.80% 96 1.61% 194 12,074
Winnebago 42.52% 37,047 49.86% 43,445 4.38% 3,818 1.22% 1,063 2.02% 1,762 87,135
Wood 37.61% 14,225 56.85% 21,498 3.61% 1,365 1.04% 393 0.89% 337 37,818
Totals 46.45% 1,382,536 47.22% 1,405,284 3.58% 106,674 1.04% 31,072 1.70% 50,584 2,976,150

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican[edit]

Recount[edit]

On November 25, 2016, with 90 minutes remaining on the deadline to petition for a recount to the state's electoral body, Jill Stein, 2016 presidential candidate of the Green Party of the United States, filed for a recount of the election results in Wisconsin. She signaled she intended to file for similar recounts in the subsequent days in the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania.[28] On November 26, the Clinton campaign announced that they were joining the recount effort in Wisconsin.[29]

The final result of the recount confirmed Trump's victory in Wisconsin, where he gained a net 131 votes.[30] Trump gained 837 additional votes, while Clinton gained 706 additional votes.[31] During the recount Trump had filed a lawsuit to halt the process, but a federal judge had rejected the lawsuit.[32]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Wisconsin Voter Turnout Statistics – Wisconsin Elections Commission". elections.wi.gov.
  2. ^ "Election results timeline: how the night unfolded".
  3. ^ "White working-class voters flipped Wisconsin red". Retrieved March 10, 2017.
  4. ^ Cohn, Nate (November 9, 2016). "Why Trump Won: Working-Class Whites". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 10, 2017.
  5. ^ "NBC News Exit Poll in Wisconsin: Trump Energizes White Working Class". NBC News. Retrieved March 10, 2017.
  6. ^ "2016 National Popular Vote Tracker: Overall Vote".
  7. ^ "United States House of Representatives floor summary for Jan 8, 2009". Clerk.house.gov. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2009.
  8. ^ "Federal elections 2008" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  9. ^ "President Map". The New York Times. November 29, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  10. ^ "Election Other – President Obama Job Approval". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved December 24, 2015.
  11. ^ Byrnes, Jesse (June 15, 2016). "Poll: Obama approval rating highest since 2012". TheHill. Retrieved June 19, 2016.
  12. ^ Cohn, Nate (January 19, 2015). "What a Rise in Obama's Approval Rating Means for 2016". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 19, 2016.
  13. ^ "Joe Biden Decides Not to Enter Presidential Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
  14. ^ "WIGP Spring Gathering & Presidential Nominating Convention Sat. 4/16 in Madison". Wisconsin Green Party. April 1, 2016. Retrieved April 15, 2016.
  15. ^ "Happy to report that I received a delegate in... – William P. Kreml". Retrieved April 20, 2016.
  16. ^ a b "Wisconsin Presidential Election 2016 Results LIVE Updates". usaelections-2016.com. Archived from the original on October 19, 2016. Retrieved October 17, 2016.
  17. ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  18. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  19. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  20. ^ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  21. ^ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  22. ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  23. ^ a b c 2016 Wisconsin election forecast (538), accessed October 20, 2020
  24. ^ Trump Out-Campaigned Clinton by 50 Percent in Key Battleground States in Final Stretch. NBC News. 13 November 2016.
  25. ^ Hillary Clinton was caught by surprise by Wisconsin loss, she says in her book, 'What Happened'. Journal Sentinel. 12 September 2017
  26. ^ a b PresidentContest RecountResult WardByWard withDistricts.xlsx (Microsoft Excel), Wisconsin Elections Commission, December 12, 2016
  27. ^ County by County Report President of the United States Recount.xlsx (Microsoft Excel), Wisconsin Elections Commission, December 12, 2016
  28. ^ "Election recount process to begin in Wisconsin after Green Party petition". nbcnews.com.
  29. ^ Scott, Eugene. "Clinton to join recount that Trump calls 'scam'". CNN. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. Retrieved November 27, 2016.
  30. ^ News, ABC. "Politics News – Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News". ABC News. Archived from the original on December 12, 2016. Retrieved December 12, 2016.
  31. ^ Matthew DeFour, Wisconsin State Journal. "Completed Wisconsin recount widens Donald Trump's lead by 131 votes". madison.com.
  32. ^ Presidential recount in Wauwatosa yields little change. Article by Chris Barlow from 13 December 2016 for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Further reading[edit]

External links[edit]

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