Nate SilverCompte certifié

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, . Author, The Signal and the Noise (). Sports/politics/food geek.

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fivethirtyeight.com
Inscrit en août 2008
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  1. il y a 23 minutes

    My premise is that Romney was reasonable to believe he'd be a better SOS for the country than the alternatives. Not just personal ambition.

    76 réponses 117 Retweets 604 j'aime
  2. il y a 36 minutes

    Sympathetic to Romney, who's smart enough to know he had an 80% chance of being humiliated. But SOS=high reward. Took some guts & integrity.

    165 réponses 159 Retweets 701 j'aime
  3. il y a 5 heures

    Tillerson would be a difficult confirmation for Trump. Lots of Russia hawks on the Sen. Foreign Relations Committee.

    69 réponses 291 Retweets 586 j'aime
  4. il y a 6 heures

    Interesting comparing hyperbolic NYT coverage of Comey letter to skeptical coverage of Russia/Trump links:

    96 réponses 1 028 Retweets 1 607 j'aime
  5. il y a 10 heures

    Correct link this time:

    Do you have experience ... 1. writing/reporting on politics? 2. using data to understand politics? Write for us:
    15 réponses 30 Retweets 48 j'aime
  6. il y a 10 heures

    Do you have experience ... 1. writing/reporting on politics? 2. using data to understand politics? Write for us:

    25 réponses 120 Retweets 168 j'aime
  7. il y a 12 heures

    OK, revised list, adding Jerry Moran (KS). That's 12 recently + 3 before election. Counting GOPers only. Not adding Burr, who has waffled.

    82 réponses 487 Retweets 646 j'aime
  8. il y a 12 heures

    I count 10 GOP senators who recently endorsed an investigation into Russian hacking + 3 more who did so before election. Anyone I'm missing?

    229 réponses 2 018 Retweets 3 073 j'aime
  9. 11 déc.

    A few of us had that Bolton idea- given Trump's biz negotiating strategy of staking out extreme position to move the compromise set point.

    Why? Maybe to make the replacement choice (Bolton?) seem more acceptable by comparison. Or maybe to show his dominance / troll everyone.
    29 réponses 128 Retweets 279 j'aime
  10. 11 déc.

    Why? Maybe to make the replacement choice (Bolton?) seem more acceptable by comparison. Or maybe to show his dominance / troll everyone.

    111 réponses 146 Retweets 580 j'aime
  11. 11 déc.

    ...or to deny that Tillerson had ever been picked the first place (can't trust the lyin' media), which he's sort of already doing.

    35 réponses 140 Retweets 455 j'aime
  12. 11 déc.

    Usually hate these 12-dimensional chess arguments, but seems possible Trump floated Tillerson expecting to withdraw him later...

    Being a "friend of Vladimir" is not an attribute I am hoping for from a - MR
    138 réponses 385 Retweets 1 066 j'aime
  13. 11 déc.

    I'll put it like this: Clinton would almost certainly be President-elect if the election had been held on Oct. 27 (day before Comey letter).

    1 311 réponses 6 336 Retweets 8 309 j'aime
  14. 11 déc.

    There's more evidence, too: Late-deciding voters broke strongly against Clinton in swing states, enough to cost her MI/WI/PA.

    174 réponses 1 263 Retweets 1 383 j'aime
  15. 11 déc.

    Comey had a large, measurable impact on the race. Harder to say with Russia/Wikileaks because it was drip-drip-drip.

    Friendly question: Is there data to support #2?
    232 réponses 1 719 Retweets 2 194 j'aime
  16. 11 déc.

    If you're Trump, what's the rationale for picking Tillerson *other* than the Russia stuff? He's not George C. Marshall, exactly.

    372 réponses 1 751 Retweets 3 548 j'aime
  17. 10 déc.

    ...so as few as 3 Republican defections (e.g. Graham, McCain, Collins) could kill the Tillerson nomination.

    84 réponses 430 Retweets 960 j'aime
  18. 10 déc.

    It's a challenging conirmation. Would seem easy for almost all Dems to hold the line against "ExxonMobil CEO with Putin ties"...

    Typically each President loses one Cabinet pick to scandal (Baird, Chavez, Daschle) or non-confirmation (Tower). Perhaps Tillerson's the one
    94 réponses 412 Retweets 946 j'aime
  19. 10 déc.

    Just leavin' this here:

    200 réponses 4 992 Retweets 3 719 j'aime
  20. 10 déc.

    As an aside, there was much mockery of Trump whenever he campaigned in WI & MI and sometimes also PA. People believed that "blue wall" crap.

    174 réponses 243 Retweets 889 j'aime

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