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Working Papers

These papers are working drafts of research which often appear in final form in academic journals. The published versions may differ from the working versions provided here.

Susan Athey, Dean Eckles, Guido W. Imbens
June 5, 2015

We study the calculation of exact p-values for a large class of non-sharp null hypotheses about treatment effects in a setting with data from experiments involving members of a single connected network. The class includes...

Alexander V. Hirsch, Ken Shotts
June 1, 2015

We analyze a model of policymaking in which only one actor, e.g., a bureaucratic agency or a well-funded interest group, has the capacity to develop high-quality policy proposals. By virtue of her skills, this actor...

Amir Goldberg, Sameer B. Srivastava, V. Govind Manian, Will Monroe, Christopher Potts
May 13, 2015

A recurring theme in sociological research is the tradeoff between fitting in and standing out. Recent work examining this tension has privileged network structural accounts over cultural explanations. We remedy this imbalance by developing a...

Oystein Daljord, Sanjog Misra, Harikesh S. Nair
May 2015

Observed contracts in the real-world are often very simple, partly reflecting the constraints faced by contracting firms in making the contracts more complex. We focus on one such rigidity, the constraints faced by firms in...

Zhiguo He, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Konstantin Milbradt
April 20, 2015

 A portion of the global wealth portfolio is directed towards a safe and liquid reserve asset, which recently has been the US Treasury bond. Our model links the determination of reserve asset status to relative...

Ken Shotts
April 20, 2015

I develop a simple hold-up model of political risk, which can be used to explore firms’ strategic options when their investments are subject to the threat of government expropriation. In the model, a firm decides...

Stefan J. Reichelstein, Stephen D. Comello
April 16, 2015

The federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar installations is scheduled to step-down from 30% to 10% at the beginning of 2017 for corporate investors. This raises the question whether solar PV will be cost...

Arvind Krishnamurthy, Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
April 1, 2015

We present a theory in which the key driver of short-term debt issued by the financial sector is the portfolio demand for safe and liquid assets by the non-financial sector. This demand drives a premium...

Lisa De Simone
April 2015

I test whether adoption of IFRS by individual affiliates of multinational entities (MNEs) for unconsolidated financial reporting facilitates tax-motivated income shifting. MNEs often justify transfer prices to tax authorities by benchmarking intercompany profit allocations against...

Katherine Casey, Rachel Glennerster, Kelly Bidwell
March 27, 2015

Debates between candidates for public office have a rich historical tradition and remain an integral part of contemporary campaign strategy. There is, however, no definitive evidence of whether debates affect actual voting behavior. Limited media penetration implies that the...

Ran Duchin, Amir Goldberg, Denis Sosyura
March 20, 2015

Using hand-collected data on divisional managers at conglomerates, we find that a change in industry surplus in one division generates large spillovers on managerial payoffs in other divisions of the same firm. These spillovers arise...

Lisa De Simone, Richard Sansing
March 17, 2015

This study investigates three mechanisms used by multinational corporations (MNCs) to shift valuable intellectual property (IP) offshore to low-tax foreign jurisdictions. We identify two major effects that determine the optimal mechanism: the divergence from arm’s length effect and...

Jonathan B. Berk, Jules H. van Binsbergen
March 14, 2015

We propose a new method of testing asset pricing models that relies on using quantities rather than simply prices or returns. We use the capital flows into and out of mutual funds to infer which...

Zhiguo He, Arvind Krishnamurthy
March 13, 2015

Systemic risk arises when shocks lead to states where a disruption in financial intermediation adversely affects the economy and feeds back into further disrupting financial intermediation. We present a macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary...

Robert A. Burgelman
March 2015

This paper discusses the phenomenon of “built to become:” an open-ended ongoing process for which there is no grand ex ante plan possible and which unfolds through a series of transformations in the course of...

Robert A. Burgelman
March 2015

This paper conceptualizes HP’s history of becoming between 1939 and 2015 in terms of an integral process overview encompassing seven distinct epochs and associated corporate transformations, and discusses the differential contributions of successive CEOs to...

Jennie Bai, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Charles-Henri Weymuller
March 2015

This paper expands on Brunnermeier, Gorton and Krishnamurthy (2011) and implements a liquidity measure, “Liquidity Mismatch Index (LMI),” to gauge the mismatch between the market liquidity of assets and the funding liquidity of liabilities. We...

Wesley Hartmann, Daniel Klapper
March 2015
We explore the effects of television advertising in the setting of the NFL’s Super Bowl telecast. The Super Bowl is the largest advertising event of the year and is well suited for measurement. The...
Erica Plambeck, Terry A. Taylor
March 2015
Deadly factory fires. Illegal pollution. Injured workers. Many brands have recently been tarnished by publicity of suppliers’ labor and environmental violations. This paper provides guidance to buyers as to how they can motivate their suppliers to comply...
Steven Grenadier, Andrey Malenko, Nadya Malenko
March 2015

This paper develops a theory of how organizations make timing decisions. We consider a problem in which an uninformed principal decides when to exercise an option and needs to rely on the information of an...