Analysis: Where the Governors Races Stand Before Election Day

Soon, the 36 gubernatorial races of 2022 will be decided. So it’s time for our final handicapping of the election cycle.

Currently, Republicans control 28 gubernatorial seats, while Democrats hold 22.

Two seats are expected to switch parties in this year’s election, both of them from Republican to Democratic control. These two states are Maryland and Massachusetts – strongly blue states that have outgoing moderate Republican governors but where Republicans this year nominated candidates aligned with former President Donald Trump, which is a non-starter for most voters in those states.

Beyond those two expected party flips, we see 12 races – one-third of those on the ballot – as being competitive to one degree or another between the parties. In the rest, the party currently in control should be able to win again this year.

One of the competitive contests, in Oklahoma, leans to the Republicans. Six of the races lean to the Democrats: Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York and Rhode Island.

Meanwhile, five states are pure toss-ups in our rankings: Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Oregon and Wisconsin. Of these five seats, the Democrats currently hold four of them, so Democrats are playing defense in what is already a challenging political environment for the party. Three of these toss-up states – Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin – are also expected to be presidential battlegrounds in 2024. That’s important because the winner of this year’s gubernatorial race is poised to certify the 2024 presidential results in an environment of widespread distrust of how elections are run.

Since our last handicapping a month ago, we’ve shifted seven races in the GOP’s direction, while shifting two in the Democrats’ direction.

Five of the states moving in the GOP’s direction involve incumbent governors improving their position: Florida’s Ron DeSantis, Georgia’s Brian Kemp, Iowa’s Kim Reynolds, Ohio’s Mike DeWine and Texas’ Greg Abbott, The other two states moving toward the Republicans are solidly blue states where the Democratic incumbents are looking more wobbly than expected: Kathy Hochul in New York and Dan McKee in Rhode Island.

The two races moving in the Democrats’ direction are Oklahoma, where incumbent Republican Kevin Stitt faces a surprisingly strong challenge from Republican-turned-Democrat Joy Hofmeister, and Pennsylvania, where Democrat Josh Shapiro leads controversial Republican nominee Doug Mastriano.

Given the two near-certain losses in Maryland and Massachusetts, the GOP will need to flip at least two seats to keep their current 28 seats.

Our analysis is based on reporting with dozens of political observers in the states, plus national party officials and a look at historical, demographic and polling data.

In addition to sorting the contests into Safe Republican, Likely Republican, Leans Republican, Toss-up, Leans Democratic, Likely Democratic and Safe Democratic categories, we list the races in descending order, from most likely to go Republican to most likely to go Democratic, including within each rating category. (The exceptions are the Safe Republican and Safe Democratic categories, which are listed here alphabetically.) If this analysis is accurate, it should be possible to draw a line in the middle, above which all races went for Republicans and below which all races went for Democrats.

Here’s the full rundown.

Safe Republican (alphabetical by state)

Alabama: Incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey (R) vs. Yolanda Flowers (D)

Arkansas: Open seat (Republican Asa Hutchinson is term-limited). Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) vs. Chris Jones (D)

Idaho: Incumbent Gov. Brad Little (R) vs. Stephen Heidt (D)

Iowa: Incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) vs. Deidre DeJear (D) (shift from Likely Republican)

Nebraska: Open seat (Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts is term-limited). Jim Pillen (R) vs. Carol Blood (D)

New Hampshire: Incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu (R) vs. Tom Sherman (D)

Ohio: Incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine (R) vs. Nan Whaley (D) (shift from Likely Republican)

South Carolina: Incumbent Gov. Henry McMaster (R) vs. Joe Cunningham (D)

Tennessee: Incumbent Gov. Bill Lee (R) vs. Jason Martin (D)

Texas: Incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R) vs. Beto O’Rourke (D) (shift from Likely Republican)

Vermont: Incumbent Gov. Phil Scott (R) vs. Brenda Siegel (D and Progressive)

Wyoming: Incumbent Gov. Mark Gordon (R) vs. Theresa Livingston (D)

Likely Republican

Florida: Incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) vs. Charlie Crist (D) (shift from Lean Republican)

South Dakota: Incumbent Gov. Kristi Noem (R) vs. Jamie Smith (D)

Alaska: Incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) vs. Les Gara (D), Charlie Pierce (R), and Bill Walker (I)

Georgia: Incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp (R) vs. Stacey Abrams (D) (shift from Lean Republican)

Lean Republican

Oklahoma: Incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) vs. Joy Hofmeister (D) (shift from Likely Republican)

Toss-up

Arizona: Open seat (Republican Gov. Doug Ducey is term-limited) Kari Lake (R) vs. Katie Hobbs (D)

Nevada: Incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) vs. Joe Lombardo (R)

Wisconsin: Incumbent Gov. Tony Evers (D) vs. Tim Michels (R)

Oregon: Open seat (Democratic Gov. Kate Brown is term-limited). Tina Kotek (D and Working Families), Christine Drazan (R), and Betsy Johnson (I)

Kansas: Incumbent Gov. Laura Kelly (D) vs. Derek Schmidt (R)

Lean Democratic

Michigan: Incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) vs Tudor Dixon (R)

Minnesota: Incumbent Gov. Tim Walz (D) vs. Scott Jensen (R)

New Mexico: Incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs. Mark Ronchetti (R)

Maine: Incumbent Gov. Janet Mills (D) vs. Paul LePage (R)

Rhode Island: Incumbent Gov. Dan McKee (D) vs. Ashley Kalus (R) (shift from Likely Democratic)

New York: Incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) vs. Lee Zeldin (R) (shift from Likely Democratic)

Likely Democratic

Pennsylvania: Open seat (Democrat Gov. Tom Wolf is term-limited). Josh Shapiro (D) vs. Doug Mastriano (R) (shift from Lean Democratic)

Colorado: Incumbent Gov. Jared Polis (D) vs. Heidi Ganahl (R)

Connecticut: Incumbent Gov. Ned Lamont (D) vs. Bob Stefanowski (R)

Safe Democratic  (alphabetical by state)

California: Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) vs. Brian Dahle (R)

Hawaii: Open seat (Democratic Gov. David Ige is term-limited). Josh Green (D) vs. Duke Aiona (R)

Illinois: Incumbent Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) vs. Darren Bailey (R)

Maryland: Open seat (Republican Gov. Larry Hogan is term-limited). Wes Moore (D) vs. Dan Cox (R)

Massachusetts: Open seat (Republican Gov. Charlie Baker is not seeking another term). Maura Healey (D) vs. Geoff Diehl (R)