Egypt: Centralizing Power Through Legislation, Old and New
March 25th, 2010 by Josh
On the same day that Mohammad ElBaradei called for democratic reforms in an interview with Al Arabiya — and once again hinted at presidential aspirations — regime officials leaked that they are preparing to extend Egypt’s 29-year-old Emergency Law that grants the government broad powers to arrest and detain citizens on the pretext of security. The renewal will give President Mubarak an additional two years to draw up new anti-terrorism legislation, a promise he campaigned on in 2005 but thus far has yet to deliver.
On the receiving end of the Emergency Law’s powers just a few days ago, the Muslim Brotherhood roundly condemned its extension and called it a “threat to Egyptian political life.” The Brotherhood’s parliamentary bloc will soon meet to brainstorm methods of opposition and prepare for the upcoming June elections.
Elsewhere in security-related matters, while debating a new law that would grant the president unilateral authority over a variety of military issues, member of parliament and national security committee chair Mohamed Abdel Fattah Omar demanded that the Egyptian people “entirely submit” to Mubarak, saying that even if he “chooses dictatorship, we still must obey, since he would act as a benevolent dictator.” Moving beyond the MP’s submissive rhetoric, Issandr El Amrani explains that parliament has traditionally served as Mubarak’s “fast-track” mechanism, effectively rubber stamping his military initiatives to provide the pretense of democracy without any of its disruptive pluralism. But the Muslim Brotherhood’s resurgence in the 2005 elections threatened the longevity of National Democratic Party’s two-thirds majority, which Amrani believes may have been the driving force behind this new legislation. “[It] is either another iteration of the fast track or an actual amendment to the law to permanently enshrine the president’s fast track privilege over arms deals — one that provides zero transparency… It is as if Mubarak wanted to make he sure he left that legacy to his successor.”
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Egypt, Elections, Human Rights, Military, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Parties | Comment »
Iraq: Debates Over Election Recount, Political Trajectory
March 25th, 2010 by Josh
One day before Iraq’s election results are scheduled to be released, Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) chief Faraj al-Haydari insisted that a manual recount of ballots is unnecessary. This despite statements from Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, President Jalal Talabani and others espousing support for such a measure to “preclude any doubt and misunderstanding” in the electoral results. “Anyone has the right to suggest,” Haydari said, “but I think we go and work according to the law. We listen to them. We can discuss with them. We can explain to them but we don’t take orders. This is law. It’s an election.” Last Sunday, with just over 90 percent of the ballots counted, the IHEC announced that Iyad Allawi’s coalition held an 8,000 vote lead.
Anticipating the forthcoming political spectacle, Robert Dreyfuss delineates a number of scenarios, each of which has a quite noticeable Rubik’s Cube effect “in which any twist or turn makes progress in one way but causes more problems on the other side of the cube.” Irregardless of who assumes power, Dreyfuss predicts a resurgence of destabilizing and potentially violent forces.
But Marc Lynch offers a rejoinder to those who think that Iraq is unraveling, saying that the electoral results “suggest that Iraqi nationalism is becoming a more potent force than sectarianism and that most voters have no trouble accepting a strong central government.” That said, Lynch admits that the structural deficiencies within Iraq’s political system remain unaddressed, perhaps leading to a “moment of truth” if either Allawi wins or Maliki squeezes out an insufficiently decisive victory and cannot build a governing coalition. Ultimately, however, “the electoral experience has only highlighted the essential irrelevance of the United States to unfolding events.”
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Political Parties, Secularism, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Global Internet Freedom: A Foreign Policy Imperative in a Digital Age”
March 24th, 2010 by Chanan
The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) hosted an event to formally launch the U.S. Senate Caucus on Global Internet Freedom, a bi-partisan initiative determined to promote global Internet freedom. The event featured opening remarks from caucus co-chairs Senators Ted Kaufman (D-DE) and Sam Brownback (R-KS), as well as other Senate caucus members including Senators Joseph Lieberman (D-CT) and Robert Casey (D-PA).
John Nagl, CNAS president, introduced the senators by lauding Congress “as a real leader on Internet freedom,” especially for its efforts last summer to pass The Victims of Iranian Censorship (VOICE) Act.
Click here for POMED’s notes in PDF. Otherwise, continue reading below.
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Posted in Congress, DC Event Notes, Egypt, Freedom, Human Rights, Iran, Protests, Technology, US foreign policy, Uncategorized | Comment »
Iran: Wielding Connective Technologies in Pursuit of Reform
March 24th, 2010 by Josh
Over at the Huffington Post, Omid Memarian explains the value of an apolitical approach to Internet freedom, drawing upon conversations with a number of Iranian acquaintances to present an alternative conceptual framework for policy-makers. “Almost all of them believe that it’s a form of moral support,” he says. “[Internet freedom] should not be seen or used as a means to pursue hidden political purposes, but as promoting human rights as defined by international standards.” To that end, Memarian proposes a series of “policy shifts” — for example, providing Iranians with free satellite Internet and a sufficient level of email security — to mitigate some of the adverse affects of Western-imposed sanctions and enable Iranians to circumvent barriers to online entry.
Delineating a similar set of recommendations, albeit with more prominent political overtones, The Century Foundation’s InsideIRAN.org relays key points of consensus from the first meeting of its year-long task force — a joint venture with the National Security Network to explore “policy steps that will be most effective in helping Iranians to reform their political system without empowering the regime against either its own people or other nations.” Among the policy prescriptions are:
- Sanction companies that assist the Iranian government in Internet filtering, surveillance, and eavesdropping.
- Provide Skype credits.
- Encourage/permit tech companies to support Persian-language online advertising.
- Fund/permit Persian-fluent web developers to partner in building websites for civil society.
- Levy sanctions on foreign and Iranian companies actively involved in helping the Iranian government’s satellite jamming.
- Broadcast digital content via satellite to millions of users in Iran.
Posted in Freedom, Human Rights, Iran, Reform, Technology, US foreign policy, sanctions | Comment »
Tunisia: Human Rights Activists Silenced by Police
March 24th, 2010 by Chanan
Tunisian authorities reportedly physically restrained and prevented human rights activists and journalists from attending a Human Rights Watch (HRW) news conference, where the international organization was slated to present its findings on Tunisia’s repression of political prisoners. The 42-page report chronicles the repressive and arbitrary methods used by the Tunisian authorities on former prisoners.
“Any attempt by the Tunisian authorities to disrupt our report release will focus attention on the government’s disrespect for freedom of speech,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, HRW’s Middle East director. “The treatment of Human Rights Watch by the Tunisian government is business as usual for Tunisian human rights defenders.”
The government’s actions come at a sensitive time, with the country’s leaders hoping to be granted ”advanced status” by the European Union.
Posted in Human Rights, Tunisia, Uncategorized | Comment »
Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood Members Arrested as Questions Persist about Mubarak’s Health
March 24th, 2010 by Chanan
Dozens of Muslim Brotherhood members were arrested Tuesday morning in six different Egyptian cities as official sources hinted at a return to Egypt by President Hosni Mubarak 18 days after gall bladder surgery in Germany. This is the third such crackdown on MB activists in the last two months.
The incarcerations did not prevent Mohamed Badie, the Muslim Brotherhood’s newly elected chairman, from extending warm wishes and a healthy recovery to Mubarak. It did, however, lead many to speculate that they were directly linked to the upcoming parliamentary elections. “They arrested group members with expertise in campaigning for elections,” surmised Abdel Moneim Abdel Maqsoud, the group’s lawyer. The Majlis‘ Gregg Carlstrom seems to agree, arguing that “as Egypt draws closer to elections — a parliamentary ballot this year, and the presidential vote next year — expect the government to keep increasing its pressure on opposition groups.” As Issandr El Amrani points out, such pressure is already in full swing with the recent proposal of a draft NGO law in Parliament that would give more control to the state authorities over the functions of NGOs.
Meanwhile, unyielding questions and doubts about Mubarak’s health continue to persist, with some demanding an official update from the government. “The question has not changed: ‘What happens after Mubarak?’” Ghada Shahbandar, a human rights and democracy advocate, told the New York Times. “We have a president who is in his 80s and has undergone surgery, so of course people are curious.” With no obvious chain of command in place to facilitate the transfer of power , Aladdin Elaasar issues concern that the vacuum of leadership will be filled by the Muslim Brotherhood and “Egypt will turn into another Iran.”
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Iran, Muslim Brotherhood, NGOs, Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
Sudan: Bashir Threatens to Kick out Monitors
March 24th, 2010 by Josh
As Sudan approaches its first multiparty election since 1986, President Omar al-Bashir warned international election observers to tread lightly after the U.S.-based Carter Center suggested delaying the elections to address the many logistical problems which, if left unfixed, may severely hamper turnout. “We wanted them to see the free and fair elections,” Bashir said, “but if they ask for them to be delayed, we will throw them out.” Opposition presidential candidate Mubarak al-Fadil interpreted the threat as a sign that Bashir is nervous, perhaps indicative of the growing prospects for war should the referendum process not go smoothly.
In order to avoid such a violent disruption of the still-nascent peace process, Dorn Townsend urges NGO workers to step aside and empower local councils and other groups as leading voices to provide a sense of societal balance and peace. Likewise, Sean Brooks of the Save Darfur Coalition contends that the dearth of engaged civil society actors is problematic, serving only to perpetuate an ineffectual international role. “It is tribal and camp leaders, women’s organizations, and Darfuri youth who could help put pressure on both the movements and Sudanese government to commitment to real negotiations,” he says. “Rather than spending such a disproportionate amount of time chasing down rebel leaders and mediating their personal differences, the international community should focus more of their attention on listening to these emerging constituencies for peace within Darfur.”
Posted in Elections, NGOs, Sudan | Comment »
Iran: Stream of American and Iranian Messages Pervade Persian New Year
March 22nd, 2010 by Chanan
U.S. and Iranian leaders took the occasion of Nowruz, the Persian New Year, to offer a flurry of web-based messages to the Iranian people. On Saturday, the White House posted a YouTube video of President Obama’s address, where he called on the Iranian government to choose a “better future” that “respect[s] the dignity and fundamental human rights of its own people.” At the same time, he lamented that multiple “good faith proposals” have been rejected by Iran’s leaders. “Faced with an extended hand,” he remarked, “Iran’s leaders have shown only a clenched fist.”
Few commentators reacted to this address though Steve Clemons of the Washington Note thought his speech was “excellent” and that “this kind of public diplomacy is enormously important in reaching out for the prospects of change — even if the Iran government is recalcitrant.”
Not surprisingly, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad each responded in their own Nowruz speeches with damning criticisms of the U.S. and heaps of praise for last year’s presidential elections. Khamenei charged the U.S. government with trying to facilitate a civil war and criticized it for its deceptive engagement. He explained his rationale for dismissing Obama’s offers, saying that “if they [the U.S.] are extending a metal hand inside a velvet glove, we won’t accept.”
Meanwhile, Mir Hossein Mousavi took to the Internet to issue his own statement, criticizing the government for its handling of last year’s election and citing gloomy projections for Iran’s economy. Mehdi Karroubi, another opposition leader, also posted a video message condemning the government and pledging his life to defend his country, Islam and the Islamic Republic.
Posted in Elections, Human Rights, Iran, US foreign policy, Uncategorized | Comment »
Will Health Care Reform Affect Foreign Policy?
March 22nd, 2010 by Josh
While most political insiders are busy unpacking the political implications of last night’s health care reform vote, Marc Lynch attempts to examine the landmark victory (assuming it emerges unscathed from the Senate) through a foreign policy lens. More precisely, he wonders if the seemingly chaotic and ill-conceived health care process can offer a “roadmap for Obama’s Middle East strategy,” perhaps indicative of a “long game” approach that doesn’t succumb to impatience, but instead maintains a “coherent, common method to dealing with intractable problems.” Lynch applies this conceptual framework to both Iran and Israel/Palestine to test for strategic similarities, and although he concludes that it’s hard to determine whether Obama truly subscribes to “long game” policymaking, “[his] health care victory should at least get people to reconsider the strategic logic behind his administration’s Middle East strategy.”
Meanwhile, Shadi Hamid senses an opportunity to seize the health care momentum in order to construct a new Obama narrative, one which projects durability and strength as his defining characteristics. “This is the new storyline. Obama the tough guy. And now Obama the tough guy — rather than the dour, feckless Obama of two weeks ago — will be conducting U.S. foreign policy.”
But Stephen Walt rejects the notion of narrative-based policy analysis, viewing day-to-day storylines as superficial relative to the “larger structural forces that are shaping events and constraining choices.” Despite today’s euphoria, Walt contends that yesterday’s victory will not translate into additional clout abroad. “Bottom line,” he says, “Obama’s foreign-policy in box will look about the same at the end of the first term as it did when he took office.”
Posted in Diplomacy, Iran, Israel, Palestine, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iran: Rafsanjani’s Grandson Arrested at Airport
March 22nd, 2010 by Chanan
Iranian authorities reportedly arrested the grandson of former president, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, late Sunday evening at Tehran’s International Airport as he returned from his studies in London to celebrate the Persian New Year, Nowruz. According to the New York Times, “the arrest of the grandson, Hassan Lahouti, appeared to be another attempt to press Mr. Rafsanjani, an influential figure who supported the opposition during last year’s elections but has recently staked out a more ambiguous position.”
Lahouti’s arrest comes amidst a conflicting series of prison releases and detainments by Iranian security forces. Late last week, another relative of Rafsanjani’s, Hussein Marashi, was arrested the day before dozens of other high profile opposition leaders were freed. At the same time, members of group called Iran Proxy were also arrested for alleged involvement in cyber warfare against the government. InsideIran’s Keyhan Kasravi reports however that this group was actually composed of a committee of students dedicated to fighting government-imposed censorship. Kasravi notes that the arrested included Hossein Ronaghi, founder of the group and its “most important technical expert.”
Posted in Elections, Iran, Protests, Technology, Uncategorized | Comment »
Sudan: Donor Conference Addresses Darfur
March 22nd, 2010 by Josh
Yesterday, international donors gathered in Cairo to raise money for reconstruction efforts in Darfur. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit implored participating countries to donate generously, raising hopes that the one-day summit, organized by the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), would amass upwards of $2 billion for development projects in agriculture, water supply, health, and education.
The conference failed to meet that mark, however, with the 57 OIC members pledging only $850 million in developmental support. Nonetheless, participants still underscored the importance of continuing financial aid, particularly in light of Sudan’s precarious peace process that has ebbed and flowed in recent weeks. Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa stressed that the ongoing process of political reconciliation must be joined by development strategies. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu concurred, insisting that peace “will not only be achieved through political agreements but also through humanitarian and development assistance.”
But Enough Project director John Prendergast views the conference as a serious misallocation of resources for a strategy that may only exacerbate existing problems. “Pouring money into this environment is a recipe for ongoing instability and is no substitute for the more serious political engagement necessary for lasting peace and security rooted in a measure of justice that the Darfur people have clearly been denied,” he says.
Posted in Arab League, Egypt, Human Rights, Sudan | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Different yet Similar: Governance in the West Bank and Gaza”
March 19th, 2010 by Josh
The Palestine Center – the educational arm of the Jerusalem Fund for Education and Community Development – hosted an event to explore the similarities and differences between systems of government in the West Bank and Gaza. How have they made institutional improvements and has this effected the balance between security and liberty? How sustainable and vulnerable are these state-like systems? Dr. Yezid Sayigh, Professor of Middle East Studies at King’s College in London, addressed these questions and provided an overview of an evolving Palestinian political landscape. Expected speaker Dr. Khaled Hroub from the University of Cambridge was not able to attend.
Click here for POMED’s notes in PDF, or continue below the fold.
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Posted in DC Event Notes, Democracy Promotion, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Hamas, Human Rights, Islam and Democracy, Israel, Mideast Peace Plan, Palestine, Political Parties, Reform | Comment »
Iran: EU Leaders Issue Call to End Iranian Censorship
March 19th, 2010 by Chanan
Ambassadors from three European Union nations along with EU foreign affairs chief, Catherine Ashton, protested Iran’s tightening grip on free expression and promised to respond if need be, according to a document seen by the AFP.
“The EU calls on the Iranian authorities to stop the jamming of satellite broadcasting and Internet censorship and to put an end to this electronic interference immediately,” said the text prepared for a Monday meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels. ”The EU is determined to pursue these issues and to act with a view to put an end to this unacceptable situation.” The statement follows a recent request by Britain, France and Germany that the EU take measures to curb Iran’s technological capacity to stifle internal dissent by enforcing tighter limits on the sale of technology.
Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that elements of the Iranian opposition have eagerly embraced the U.S. Treasury’s decision to lift sanctions on technology companies that export Internet services. Still, many democracy activists are calling for discarding all bans on trade in online services in the hopes of circumventing the government’s attempts at censorship.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comment »
POMED Notes: “After the Elections: A New Beginning for Iraq and the United States?”
March 19th, 2010 by Chanan
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted a panel discussion with Saifaldin D. Abdul-Rahman, the former advisor to Iraqi Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, Brian Katulis of the Center for American Progress, and Marina Ottaway, director of the Carnegie Middle East Program, to analyze the preliminary Iraqi election results and its implications on U.S. policy toward Iraq. Michele Dunne, a senior associate at Carnegie, moderated the conversation.
For POMED’s notes in PDF, click here. Otherwise, continue reading below.
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Posted in DC Event Notes, Elections, Iran, Iraq, US foreign policy | Comment »
Arab Reform Bulletin: A Look at Pluralism and Political Progress
March 18th, 2010 by Josh
In its two most recent offerings, the Arab Reform Bulletin assesses the political landscape in both Algeria and Kuwait. Journalist Mahmoud Belhimer, troubled by the failure of recent government initiatives to alleviate Algeria’s ongoing economic turmoil and build a higher level of democratic pluralism, wonders how a forthcoming generational shift in political leadership might affect Algeria’s democratic trajectory. Yet regardless of who succeeds President Bouteflika, Belhimer contends that “the next president will not succeed in establishing true stability and prosperity if he maintains the approach of keeping power in the hands of a few and preventing popular political participation and government accountability.”
ARB editor Michele Dunne has a piece up as well, in which she relays the contents of an interview with Dr. Rola Dashti, a Kuwaiti democratic activist and one of the first four women to ever be elected to Kuwait’s parliament in 2009. Check out the full exchange here.
Posted in Algeria, Democracy Promotion, Kuwait, Publications, Reform | Comment »
NDI: Report on Lebanon’s 2009 Election
March 18th, 2010 by Josh
The National Democratic Institute recently released its “Final Report on the Lebanese Parliamentary Election” [PDF], which finds that although the 2009 contest was “fundamentally peaceful and well-administered,” a combination of political deals and a unique electoral system “meant that the outcome was predetermined in all but a few of the most contested regions.” To improve Lebanon’s electoral processes and strengthen its vulnerable democratic institutions, NDI offers a set of sixteen general recommendations and expresses its hope that regional actors “give space so that continued electoral reform and democratic development can move forward and Lebanon can freely determine its own future within the framework of autonomous democratic institutions.”
If interested, an Arabic version of the report is available as well.
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Elections, Lebanon, Publications | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Analyzing the Political Elite of the Islamic Republic of Iran”
March 18th, 2010 by Josh
The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars hosted an event with Professor Mehrzad Boroujerdi of Syracuse University, who is compiling a database with detailed information on nearly 2,000 people in the political elite of Iran – from cabinet and parliament members to religious authorities, military officer, members of the judiciary, and presidential advisors. He presented his preliminary findings and discussed their implications for Iran’ tumultuous political landscape. Daniel Brumberg from the United States Institute of Peace also provided some thoughts following the presentation.
Click here for POMED’s notes in PDF, or continue reading below the fold.
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Posted in DC Event Notes, Iran | Comment »
POMED Notes: “The United States and Turkey: A View from the Obama Administration”
March 17th, 2010 by Chanan
The Brookings Institution, in collaboration with Sabanci University, held the sixth annual Sakip Sabanci Lecture with Philip H. Gordon, Assistant Secretary of European and Eurasian Affairs, to discuss the Obama administration’s perspective on Turkey, its relationship with the United States and the European Union, and its role across the Middle East and throughout the world.
For POMED’s notes in PDF, click here. Otherwise, continue reading below.
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Posted in Afghanistan, DC Event Notes, EU, Iran, Iraq, Islam and Democracy, Israel, Middle Eastern Media, Pakistan, Political Parties, Turkey, Uncategorized, sanctions | Comment »
Online Social Networking Disruptions in Egypt, Morocco
March 17th, 2010 by Josh
Over at Global Voices Advocacy, Ramy Raoof draws attention to the recent disruption in Skype connectivity for Egyptians using USB modems. According to an exchange Raoof had with Vodaphone, a large internet service provider in Egypt, the government’s National Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (NTRA) decided to block Skype for USB modem users after three telecommunication companies complained about revenue losses incurred from customers using Skype’s free service. Egyptian law mandates that all international calls be filtered through majority state-owned Telecom Egypt — one of the companies reporting lower-then-anticipated earnings — and the NTRA noted that it is only targeting what it considers illegal voice traffic on mobile Internet, not fixed traffic. “This is due to the fact it is against the law since it bypasses the legal gateway,” said an NTRA official.
Elsewhere, a Moroccan Facebook group advocating for the separation of religion and education was administratively deleted from the website without warning. Official inquiries by Kacem El Ghazzali, a Moroccan activist and founder of the group, to ascertain the reason for the shut-down went unanswered. Alluding to previous examples of inconsistent, suspicious, and unexplained Terms of Service (TOS) enforcement by Facebook officials, Jillian York from Harvard’s Berkman Center for Internet and Society suspects the Moroccan government may have pressured Facebook into removing the group from its server. “It seems that Facebook is now policing speech, possibly at the behest of a foreign government.” York also penned a separate piece commenting on an Issandr El Amrani post last week exploring the role of Facebook in Middle Eastern politics (covered here). Though agreeing that Facebook is certainly being used for political purposes, she contends that “The downfall, of course, is Facebook itself, which has garnered a reputation for selectively enforcing its own TOS.”
Posted in Egypt, Morocco, Technology | Comment »
Egypt: Analyzing the Opposition, Addressing the Political Hierarchy of Power
March 17th, 2010 by Josh
As President Hosni Mubarak slowly reemerges from his recent gall bladder procedure, Nathan Brown of the Carnegie Endowment takes to FP’s Middle East Channel to explore Egypt’s chain of command as well the implications of its “stultifying political environment,” particularly with regard to reform. Because the government initiated a broad security campaign to crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood following its electoral success in 2005, and with the understanding that the Brotherhood is the only opposition force with both a coherent vision and solid constituency, Brown worries that “the Egyptian regime will be facing an opposition of inchoate protests and armchair intellectuals.” Yet he interprets the “ElBaradei phenomenon” as a sign that the Mubarak government may also be losing it’s “raison d’être,” saying that “only a regime without much credibility or legitimacy could be spooked by an international civil servant long absent from the country.”
In terms of identifying who within the regime actually holds the strings of power, Michael Collins Dunn surmises that members of Egypt’s security apparatus maintain tremendous influence as well as various leaders within Mubarak’s own National Democratic Party. But he contends that Gamal Mubarak, thought by many to be the most likely presidential successor, has yet to truly emerge as the “supreme” political actor.
Posted in Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Parties, Reform | Comment »
