Trends in Social Mobility
Leaders: Raj Chetty, Gary Solon
The purpose of the Social Mobility RG is to develop a new infrastructure for measuring mobility that is as reliable, sound, and comprehensive as that available in other poverty and inequality domains. This RG is doing so by (a) providing comprehensive analyses of intergenerational mobility based on linked administrative data from U.S. tax returns, W-2s, and other sources, and (b) developing a new administrative infrastructure for monitoring social mobility, dubbed the American Opportunity Study.
The Equal Opportunity Project, led by Raj Chetty, uses tax return data to examine how opportunities for mobility vary across areas of the U.S. and over time. By examining families who move across areas, it is also possible to identify the causal effects of neighborhoods on opportunities, a line of analysis that has demonstrated that a child’s chances of success are strongly influenced by where that child grows up. In a second line of analysis by Pablo Mitnik, David Grusky, Michael Weber, and Victoria Bryant, an earlier sample of tax filers was exploited to secure additional estimates of mobility, with the results underlining the extent to which the family into which one is born affect opportunities to get ahead.
This research group is also developing a new administrative infrastructure for monitoring mobility and evaluating programs and policies. The American Opportunity Study (AOS) is an initiative to develop the country’s capacity (a) to link individual records across the 1960-2010 decennial censuses and the 2008-2014 American Community Surveys (ACS), (b) to append further information to these linked records from other administrative sources, (c) to make intergenerational matches between parents and children within the resulting AOS, and (d) to link to other surveys that are large enough, have individual identifiers, and for which consent to link has been obtained. This approach, which is being led by the U.S. Census Bureau, will yield a low-cost intergenerational panel based entirely on existing data. It will provide the U.S. with the capacity to monitor longitudinal processes and allow for evidence-informed policy on mobility, opportunity, and other labor market outcomes.
Featured Examples
Mobility - CPI Research
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Childhood Environment and Gender Gaps in Adulthood | Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Frina Lin, Jeremy Majerovitz, Benjamin Scuderi |
Childhood Environment and Gender Gaps in AdulthoodAuthor: Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Frina Lin, Jeremy Majerovitz, Benjamin ScuderiPublisher: NBER Date: 02/2016 We show that differences in childhood environments play an important role in shaping gender gaps in adulthood by documenting three facts using population tax records for children born in the 1980s. First, gender gaps in employment rates, earnings, and college attendance vary substantially across the parental income distribution. Notably, the traditional gender gap in employment rates is reversed for children growing up in poor families: boys in families in the bottom quintile of the income distributionare less likely to work than girls. Second, these gender gaps vary substantially across counties and commuting zones in which children grow up. The degree of variation in outcomes across places is largest for boys growing up in poor, single-parent families. Third, the spatial variation in gender gaps is highly correlated with proxies for neighborhood disadvantage. Low-income boys who grow up in high-poverty, high-minority areas work significantly less than girls. These areas also have higher rates of crime, suggesting that boys growing up in concentrated poverty substitute from formal employment to crime. Together, these findings demonstrate that gender gaps in adulthood have roots in childhood, perhaps because childhood disadvantage is especially harmful for boys. |
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State of the Union 2016: Economic Mobility | Miles Corak |
State of the Union 2016: Economic MobilityAuthor: Miles CorakPublisher: Date: 02/2016 When compared to 24 middle-income and high-income countries, the U.S. ranks 16th in the amount of intergenerational earnings mobility. The relatively low level of mobility in the U.S. may arise in part because low-income children in the U.S. tend to have less stable and lower-income families, less secure families, and parents who have less time to devote to their children. |
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The Effects of Exposure to Better Neighborhoods on Children: New Evidence from the Moving to Opportunity Experiment | Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Lawrence F. Katz |
The Effects of Exposure to Better Neighborhoods on Children: New Evidence from the Moving to Opportunity ExperimentAuthor: Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Lawrence F. KatzPublisher: Date: 08/2015 The Moving to Opportunity (MTO) experiment offered randomly selected families living in high-poverty housing projects housing vouchers to move to lower-poverty neighborhoods. We present new evidence on the impacts of MTO on children's long-term outcomes using administrative data from tax returns. We find that moving to a lower-poverty neighborhood signicantly improves college attendance rates and earnings for children who were young (below age 13) when their families moved. These children also live in better neighborhoods themselves as adults and are less likely to become single parents. The treatment effects are substantial: children whose families take up an experimental voucher to move to a lower-poverty area when they are less than 13 years old have an annual income that is $3,477 (31%) higher on average relative to a mean of $11,270 in the control group in their mid-twenties. In contrast, the same moves have, if anything, negative long-term impacts on children who are more than 13 years old when their families move, perhaps because of the disruption effects of moving to a very dierent environment. The gains from moving fall with the age when children move, consistent with recent evidence that the duration of exposure to a better environment during childhood is a key determinant of an individual's long-term outcomes. The findings imply that offering vouchers to move to lower-poverty neighborhoods to families with young children who are living in high-poverty housing projects may reduce the intergenerational persistence of poverty and ultimately generate positive returns for taxpayers. |
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Economic Mobility in the United States | Pablo A. Mitnik |
Economic Mobility in the United StatesAuthor: Pablo A. MitnikPublisher: The Pew Charitable Trusts and the Russell Sage Foundation Date: 07/2015 Given the substantial body of research on economic mobility, one might imagine that little remains unknown. This is not the case. Although it is well established that a person’s income is related to that of his or her 1. Approximately half of parental income advantages are passed on to children. The intergenerational elasticity (IGE), when averaged across all levels of parental income, is estimated at 0.52 for men and 0.47 for women. These estimates are at the high end of previous estimates and imply that the United States is very immobile. 2. The persistence of advantage is especially large among those raised in the middle to upper reaches of the income distribution. The IGE among adults whose parents were between the 50th and 90th income percentiles is 0.68 for men and 0.63 for women. This means that approximately two-thirds of parental income differences within this region of the income distribution persist into the next generation. 3. Children born far apart in the income distribution have very different economic outcomes. The expected family income of children raised in families at the 90th income percentile is about three times that of children raised at the 10th percentile. 4. Parental income matters more for men’s earnings than for women’s. The average earnings IGE for men (0.56) is more than 40 percent higher than that for women (0.32). Although both men and women benefit from being born into higher-income families, men benefit much more—at least when it comes to their own earnings. 5. Parental income matters more for women’s chances of marriage, and of marrying better-off partners. The income IGE is large for men (0.52) mainly because children from higher-income families tend to have higher earnings as adults. For women, the income IGE is nearly as large (0.47), mainly because those from higher income origins are more likely to be married in their late 30s—and to marry higher-earnings partners. These results show that children born into lower-income families can expect very different futures relative to those from higher-income families. Given the country’s commitment to equality of opportunity, the findings may suggest the need for policies that increase economic mobility. Because a wide range of institutions affect mobility, including the family, schools, labor markets, and the tax system, many entry points are possible for developing such policies. Although the findings of this report can inform public policy, they do not lead to particular policy prescriptions or indicate which of these many possible intervention points should be given priority. |
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What Do We Know So Far about Multigenerational Mobility? | Gary Solon |
What Do We Know So Far about Multigenerational Mobility?Author: Gary SolonPublisher: Date: 03/2015 “Multigenerational mobility” refers to the associations in socioeconomic status across three or more generations. This article begins by summarizing the longstanding but recently growing empirical literature on multigenerational mobility. It then discusses multiple theoretical interpretations of the empirical patterns, including the one recently proposed in Gregory Clark’s book The Son Also Rises. |
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Mobility - CPI Working Papers
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Recession Depression: Mental Health Effects of the 2008 Stock Market Crash | Melissa McInerney, Jennifer M. Mellor, Lauren Hersch Nicholas |
Recession Depression: Mental Health Effects of the 2008 Stock Market CrashAuthor: Melissa McInerney, Jennifer M. Mellor, Lauren Hersch NicholasPublisher: Date: 09/2013 How do sudden, large wealth losses affect mental health? Most prior studies of the causal effects of material well-being on health use identification strategies involving income increases; these studies as well as prior research on stock market accumulations may not inform this question if the effect of wealth on health is asymmetric. We use exogenous variation in the interview dates of the 2008 Health and Retirement Study to assess the impact of large wealth losses on mental health among older U.S. adults. We compare cross-wave changes in wealth and health for respondents interviewed before and after the October 2008 stock market crash. We find that the crash reduced wealth and increased depressive symptoms and the use of anti-depressants. These results suggest that sudden wealth losses cause immediate declines in mental health; for example, a loss of $50,000 of non-housing wealth increases the likelihood of feeling depressed by 1.35 percentage points, or by 8%. |
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Tax Structure and Revenue Instability: The Great Recession and the States | Howard Chernick, Cordelia Reimers, Jennifer Tennant |
Tax Structure and Revenue Instability: The Great Recession and the StatesAuthor: Howard Chernick, Cordelia Reimers, Jennifer TennantPublisher: Date: 01/2013 Though the great recession has had the most severe overall effect on state tax revenues of any downturn since the Great Depression, impacts varied widely across states. Tax revenues were affected through two different channels. The first is due to the collapse in realized capital gains income following the sharp decline in the stock market. State tax bases are affected in proportion to pre-recession reliance on capital gains income, in turn closely associated with the degree of income concentration. Largely due to capital gains income, the income of high-income taxpayers is more cyclically sensitive than that of lower-income taxpayers. The second channel, the differential effect on state output and employment, has its greatest impact on incomes below the top 5 percent of the distribution. We hypothesize that variation in revenue impact across states is due to differences in the severity of the income shocks at different levels of income, the degree of income inequality, the importance of capital gains in top incomes, and the level and progressivity of tax burdens. Progressive states are likely to be more vulnerable to revenue losses in economic downturns. Progressivity and income volatility may interact to amplify the recession’s fiscal impact. |
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How Has the Financial Crisis Affected the Finances of Older Households? | Richard W. Kopcke, Anthony Webb |
How Has the Financial Crisis Affected the Finances of Older Households?Author: Richard W. Kopcke, Anthony WebbPublisher: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality Date: 12/2012 This brief considers the impact of recent declines in stock prices and nominal interest rates on older households, examining the effect of the crisis on the financial wealth of older households, the impact of the financial crisis on the investment and total incomes of retired households, and the impact of the financial crisis on lifetime consumption. |
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The Great Recession and the Social Safety Net | Robert A. Moffitt |
The Great Recession and the Social Safety NetAuthor: Robert A. MoffittPublisher: Date: 10/2012 The social safety net responded in significant and favorable ways during the Great Recession. Aggregate per capita expenditures grew significantly, with particularly strong growth in the SNAP, EITC, UI, and Medicaid programs. Distributionally, the increase in transfers was widely shared across demographic groups, including families with and without children, single-parent and two-parent families. Transfers grew as well among families with more employed members and with fewer employed members. However, the increase in transfer amounts was not strongly progressive across income classes within the low-income population, increasingly slightly more for those just below the poverty line and those just above it, compared to those at the bottom of the income distribution. This is mainly the result of the EITC program, which provides greater benefits to those with higher family earnings. The expansions of SNAP and UI benefitted those at the bottom of the income distribution to a greater extent. |
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Millionaire Migration in California: The Impact of Top Tax Rates | Charles Varner, Cristobal Young |
Millionaire Migration in California: The Impact of Top Tax RatesAuthor: Charles Varner, Cristobal YoungPublisher: Date: 10/2012 California is one of eight states that have established a “millionaire tax” in recent years. The popular appeal of these taxes is that they raise revenue from those seen to have greater ability to pay a higher rate on the highest portion of their incomes. The concern, however, is that millionaire taxes may lead to millionaire migration, with potentially serious loss of revenues for the state. This study addresses the following key question: Do changes in California’s top income tax rates lead to changes in the migration of top incomes? |
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Mobility - Other Research
Title | Author | Media | |
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Earnings Inequality and Mobility in the United States: Evidence from Social Security Data since 1937 | Wojciech, Kopczuk, Emmanuel Saez and Jae Song |
Earnings Inequality and Mobility in the United States: Evidence from Social Security Data since 1937Author: Wojciech, Kopczuk, Emmanuel Saez and Jae SongPublisher: Date: 12/2010 |
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The Race Between Education and Technology | Goldin, Claudia, Lawrence F. Katz |
The Race Between Education and TechnologyAuthor: Goldin, Claudia, Lawrence F. KatzPublisher: Harvard University Press Date: 03/2010 |
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Trends in U.S. Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists | David H. Autor, Lawrence F. Katz and Melissa S.... |
Trends in U.S. Wage Inequality: Revising the RevisionistsAuthor: David H. Autor, Lawrence F. Katz and Melissa S....Publisher: Review of Economics and Statistics Date: 04/2008 |
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Making it in America: Social Mobility in the Immigrant Population | George Borjas |
Making it in America: Social Mobility in the Immigrant PopulationAuthor: George BorjasPublisher: National Bureau of Economic Research Date: 03/2006 |
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The End of American Exceptionalism? Mobility in the U.S. Since 1850 | Joseph P. Ferrie |
The End of American Exceptionalism? Mobility in the U.S. Since 1850Author: Joseph P. FerriePublisher: National Bureau of Economic Research Date: 04/2005 |
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